2012 Chambers County, Alabama Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA)

Transcription

1 2012 Chambers County, Alabama Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Town of Cusseta Town of Five Points City of LaFayette City of Lanett City of Valley City of Waverly Chambers County Prepared under the direction of the Chambers County Local Emergency Planning Committee With the support of the Chambers County EMA by: August 31, 2012

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3 2012 Chambers County, Alabama Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Town of Cus s eta, Town of Fiv e P oints, City of LaFay ette, City of Lanett, City of Valley, Town of Wav erly, and Cham bers County Chambers County Local Emergency Planning Committee Donnie Smith, Chambers County EMA/911 Director Kathy Hornsby, Chambers County EMA/911 Deputy Director Jessica Yeager, Chambers County EMA/911 Josh Harvill, Chambers County Highway Department Robbie Stubbs, Public Health Area 6 Eugene Black, Public Health Area 6 Trina Bryan, Public Health Area 6 Kenneth Vines, City of LaFayette Police Department Julia Ann Hyde, Chambers County Department of Human Resources Meagan Crosson, Chambers County Department of Human Resources Byron Pigg, East Alabama Fire Department Stan Taylor, Huguley Fire Department Scott Hamil, City of Lanett, EMS Johnny Allen, City of Lanett Fire/EMS Tommy Weldon, City of Valley Police Department

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5 Contacts Kathy Hornsby Deputy Director James E. Lehe, AICP Manager Chambers County Emergency Management & Communications District, Inc. (EMA/911) Veteran s Memorial Pkwy. Lehe Planning, LLC leheplanning.com 300 Century Park S, Suite 216 Lanett, AL Birmingham, AL deputy.director@chamberscounty911.com jelehe@leheplanning.com Copyright 2012 by Lehe Planning, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This document contains proprietary materials and methods copyrighted by Lehe Planning, LLC. Permission is granted to the Chambers County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) for its internal use. Use by anyone other than the Chambers County EMA requires the express w ritten permission of Lehe Planning, LLC. You may not copy, modify, publicly display, distribute, reverse engineer, or incorporate into your products or services this document (or any of the information or data structures contained herein) w ithout the express w ritten authorization of Lehe Planning, LLC.

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7 Table of Contents I. Introduction... 1 II. Public Involvement Process... 1 III. Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment... 3 i A. Identification of Natural Hazards... 3 B. Identification of Technological and Human-Caused Hazards... 7 C. Sources for Identifying Chambers County Hazards... 7 D. Hazard Profiles Severe Storms Profile Tornadoes Profile Winter Storms/Freezes Profile Drought/Heat Waves Profile Hurricanes Profile Floods Profile Dam/Levee Failures Profile Wildfires Profile Sinkholes/Land Subsidence Profile Earthquakes Profile Landslides...47 E. Technological/Human-Caused Hazard Profiles Hazardous Materials Spills (transportation-related) Pandemic/Disease Outbreak Controls Failures Airplane Crash Urban Fires/Explosions School Violence Cyber Attacks Bio-terrorism/Bio-attacks...56 F. Vulnerability of Structures Scope of Structure Inventory Inventory Methodology HAZUS-MH Structure Inventory Existing and Future Structure Vulnerabilities...64

8 G. Estimate of Dollar Losses to Vulnerable Structures Scope and Purpose of Loss Estimates Loss Estimate Methodology HAZUS-MH Loss Estimates Loss Estimates Based on Historical Records Recommended Risk Assessment Measures...99 H. General Description of Land Uses and Development Trends Impacts of Development Trends on Vulnerability Past Trends Distribution of Growth within Chambers County Land Use Future Trends Economic Development Prospects I. Repetitively Damaged NFIP-Insured Structures J. Summary of Hazards and Community Impacts K. Varying Risks Among Jurisdictions IV. Closing List of Tables Table 1: Identified Natural Hazards for Chambers County... 4 Table 2. Summary of Federally-Declared Disasters Table 3. Annual Summary of Severe Storm Events...10 Table 4. Annual Summary of Tornado Events, Table 5. Winter Weather Observations...17 Table 6. Annual Summary of Winter Storm/Extreme Cold Events, Table 7. Annual Summary of Drought/Extreme Heat Events, Table 8. Annual Summary of Hurricane Events, Table 9. Annual Summary of Flood Events, Table 10. Chambers County Dams/Levees...29 Table 11. Historical Hazardous Materials Incidents...52 Table 12. Population Distribution by Jurisdiction...58 Table Annual Growth Rates by Incorporated Jurisdiction...59 Table Growth Projections and Multipliers...59 Table 15. Population Distribution by Jurisdiction...60 Table 16. Hazard Exposure Rates by Jurisdiction...61 Table 17. HAZUS-MH Population and Building Value Data...62 Table 18. HAZUS-MH Building Inventory by Occupancy...62 Table 19. Building Values...62 ii

9 Table 20. HAZUS-MH Building Inventory by Construction Type...63 Table 21. Building Exposure by Occupancy...64 Table 22. Building Values by Jurisdiction...66 Table 23. Building Count by Occupancy and Jurisdiction...67 Table 24. Building Exposure by Jurisdiction and Hazard...68 Table 25. HAZUS-MH Essential Facilities Data...69 Table 26. HAZUS-MH High Potential Loss Facilities Data...69 Table 27. HAZUS-MH Transportation Systems Lifeline Inventory...70 Table 28. HAZUS-MH Utilities Systems Lifeline Inventory...71 Table 29. Government Facilities...72 Table 30. Public Safety Facilities...75 Table 31. Chambers County Schools...77 Table 32. Chambers County Hospital and Elderly Care Facilities...79 Table 33. Dams...82 Table 34. Population Distribution by Jurisdiction...86 Table 35. HAZUS-MH Flood Module Quick Assessment Results...87 Table 36. Total Economic Losses by Jurisdiction...88 Table 37. Expected Building Damage by Occupancy...88 Table 38. Expected Building Damage by Building Type...89 Table 39. Building Related Economic Loss Estimates ($ millions)...89 Table 40. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Scenarios...93 Table 41. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Scenarios...93 Table 42. Chambers County Historic Growth Trends Table 43. Population and Projections Table 44. Population Projections by Jurisdiction Table 45. NFIP Policies and Repetitive Loss Claims Table 46. Summary of Hazards and Community Impacts Table 47. Jurisdictional Risk Variations List of Maps Map 1. Tracks of Tornados Paths in Alabama on April 27, Map 2. Chambers County Tornado Locations, Map 3. Alabama Winter Storm Frequency ( )...19 Map 4. Hurricane & Storm Paths, Map 5. Flood Zones...25 Map 6. Chambers County Dams/Levees...28 Map 7. West Point Lake Dam Inundation Area...31 Map 8. West Point Lake Dam Inundation Area...32 Map 9. Chambers County Forest Fuels...35 Map 10. Chambers County Vegetation Cover...36 Map 11. Chambers County Wildfire Risk...37 Map 12. Alabama Total Acres Burned Map 13. Chambers County Fire Observations...39 Map 14. Chambers County Fire Occurrences...40 iii

10 Map 15. Outcrops of Carbonate Rocks in Alabama...41 Map 16. Active Sinkhole Areas in Alabama...42 Map 17. Seismic Zones in Southeastern United States...43 Map 18. Peak Ground Acceleration...45 Map 19. Alabama Earthquake Locations...46 Map 20. Chambers County Landslide Areas...49 Map 21. Transportation Facilities...51 Map 22. Government Facilities...74 Map 23. Public Safety Facilities...76 Map 24. Schools...78 Map 25. Hospitals and Elderly Care Facilities...80 Map 26. Transportation Infrastructure...81 Map 27. Dams...84 Map 28. HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimate, 100 Year Event...90 Map 29. HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimate, 500 Year Event...91 Map 30. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Loss Estimate, 100 Year Event...94 Map 31. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Loss Estimate, 500 Year Event...95 Map 32. HAZUS-MH Earthquake Loss Estimate, 100 Year Event...97 Map 33. HAZUS-MH Earthquake Loss Estimate, 500 Year Event...98 Map 34. Population Density in Chambers County Map 35. Population Density Map 36. Land Cover in Chambers County List of Charts Chart 1. Annual Frequency of Tornado Intensity, Chart 2. Annual Frequency of Tornado Intensity, Chart 3. Projected Population Changes List of Figures Figure 1. Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale...44 Appendices Appendix A: Public Involvement Materials Appendix B: Hazard Identification and Ratings Appendix C: Hazard Profile Data and Extreme Heat Events iv

11 I. Introduction As part of the National Preparedness Goal, FEMA has issued Comprehensive Planning Guide 201, Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Guide. The THIRA is an all-hazards capability assessment that allows a jurisdiction to understand its threats/hazards and determine impact based on varying conditions. It allows for establishment of capability targets and guides a community in appropriating resources during a threat/hazard incident. All local EMA programs receiving Emergency Management Planning Grant (EMPG) funding are required to comply with CPG 101 v.2, which includes a THIRA process as part of their Emergency Operations Plan update. The Chambers County THIRA is a compilation of natural hazards identification and risk assessment from the 2011 Chambers County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, as well as newly identified technological/human-caused hazards. II. Public Involvement Process The local planning process for the development of the THIRA consisted of various opportunities for multi-jurisdictional participation. Meetings with the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (for the Natural Hazards portion), meetings with the Local Emergency Planning Committee (for the Technological/Human-Caused Hazards portion), and public meetings for both occurred as follows: Local Emergency Planning Committee Meeting June 21, 2012 (See Appendix A for sign-in sheet, Hazard Identification, Hazard Ratings, and Hazard Profiles.) Public Meeting October 11, 2012 (See Appendix A for public meeting materials) Chambers County EMA Emergency Operations Plan Update Web site (chambers.hazmitalabama.com) 1

12 Chambers County THIRA

13 III. Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment A. Identification of Natural Hazards Chambers County is subject to many natural, technological, and national security hazards that could result in an emergency or disaster. The natural hazards affecting each Chambers County jurisdiction are listed in Table 1 Identified Natural Hazards for Chambers County. This table also notes several hazards that may occur as consequences of other hazards. For example, hurricanes frequently spawn tornadoes. For a detailed description of these hazards, refer to Appendix B. 3

14 Table 1: Identified Natural Hazards for Chambers County Hazards Associated Hazards Jurisdictions Affected Chambers County Severe Storms Tornadoes Winter Storms/Freezes Wildfires Thunderstorms Hail Lightning High Winds Tornadoes Floods High Winds Severe Storms Snow Storms Ice Storms Extreme Cold Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly 4

15 Hazards Associated Hazards Jurisdictions Affected Chambers County Cusseta Drought/Heat Waves Hurricanes Floods Dam/Levee Failures Extreme Heat Wildfires Sinkholes Tropical Storms Tropical Depressions Severe Storms High Winds Floods Floods Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly 5

16 Hazards Associated Hazards Jurisdictions Affected Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Wildfires Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Sinkholes (Land Subsidence) Lafayette Earthquakes Landslides Landslides Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly Chambers County Cusseta Five Points Lafayette Lanett Valley Waverly 6

17 B. Identification of Technological and Human-Caused Hazards List of Technological/Human Caused Hazards Chambers County Technological Hazardous Materials Spills (Transportation) Hazardous Materials Spills (Fixed Industrial Locations) Pandemic / Disease Outbreak Controls Failures Airplane Crash Urban Fires / Explosions Human-Caused School Violence Cyber Attacks Bio Terrorism / Bio Attacks C. Sources for Identifying Chambers County Hazards The planning team used the following sources for identifying natural and technological/humancaused hazards in Chambers County: HMPC Natural Hazard Identification and Ratings Exercise. During the 2010 update of the Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP), Chambers County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) completed an exercise to evaluate the list of natural hazards identified in the 2006 plan. Appendix B HMPC Hazard Identification and Ratings depicts this exercise and compares the results Alabama State Plan. The 2010 update of the State Plan served as an additional resource for identifying local hazards. The planning committee compared the list of all of the hazards identified by the State against the local list of hazards and noted differences between the two lists. List of Federally-Declared Disasters. Federal disaster declarations affecting Chambers County were an additional source for hazard identification. All declarations that have been issued since 1975 and May 1, 2011 are included in the following table (Table 2). 7

18 Table 2. Summary of Federally-Declared Disasters Disaster # Disaster Type Date Declaration Type* 285 Severe Storm 04/09/1975 IA,PA-ABCDEFG,DH,DUA,IFG 488 Severe Storm 10/02/1975 IA,PA-ABCDEFG,DH,DUA,IFG 3045 Drought 07/20/1977 PA-AB 578 Flood 04/18/1979 IA,DH,DUA,IFG 861 Severe Storm 04/07/1990 IA,PA-ABCDEFG,DH,DUA,IFG 3096 Snow 03/15/1993 PA-AB 1070 Hurricane 10/12/1995 IA,PA-ABCDEFG,DH,DUA,IFG 1466 Severe Storm 05/12/2003 IA, PA-ABCDEFG,DH,DUA,IFG 1549 Hurricane 09/15/2004 IA, ABCDEFG,DH,HM, DUA,IFG 1593 Hurricane 07/10/2005 PA-ABCDEFG, HM, DFA 1605 Hurricane 08/29/2005 HM, B 3282 Hurricane 08/30/2008 PA-AB 1971 Tornado, Severe Storm IA Individual assistance PA Public assistance DH Disaster housing CC Crisis counseling 04/28/2011 IA,PA-ABCDEFG,CC,DH,DUA,IFG * Declaration Type Key A Debris removal B Protective measures C Roads and bridges D Water control facilities DFA Direct federal assistance DUA Disaster unemployment assistance HM Hazard mitigation IFG Individual and family grant IHP - Individuals and households E Public buildings F Public utilities G Recreation SA Stafford Act 403C Department of Defense SBA Small Business Administration Source: FEMA, Region IV 8

19 LEPC Hazard Identification and Ratings Exercise. The Chambers County Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) met on June 21, 2012 to identify and rate technological/humancaused hazards. Appendix B Hazard Identification and Ratings includes the results of this exercise. Other Hazard Identification Sources. Chambers County EMA staff and local government professionals Discussions with longstanding residents who served on the LEPC and participated in community events and surveys Interviews with professional experts from local jurisdictions and federal and state agencies, including the National Weather Service, Geologic Survey of Alabama, Alabama EMA, Alabama Forestry Commission and others Local newspapers National Weather Service records NOAA Storm Events Database Extensive internet research D. Hazard Profiles 1. Severe Storms Profile According to the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee, severe storms are the highest natural hazard threat to Chambers County communities. NOAA records confirm this perception. Severe storms maybe accompanied by high winds, thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, and hail. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reports that during the afternoon of May 10, 2009, several damaging storms passed through Chambers County. The storms were accompanied with large hail and damaging winds. Nine trees were blown down near I-85, two miles southeast of Cusseta, causing $4,000 in property damage. Several uprooted trees three miles southwest of Glass, caused $3,000 in property damages. In other areas, downed trees and power lines caused another $3,000 in property damages. Large hail was recorded in certain areas but caused no damage. Location. Severe storms lack geographic centers and boundaries, therefore cannot be substantively mapped. All areas of Chambers County have equal exposure to severe storms, including thunderstorms, high winds, heavy precipitation, and hail. Extent. The extent of severe storms depends on severity and duration. A storm s severity is measured by the combination of rainfall, wind-speed, the size of any accompanying hail, and the intensity of lightning. The exact extent of severe storms is not predictable. Severe storms can also result in flooding due to heavy precipitation and wildfires due to lightning and will accompany hurricanes and tornadoes. 9 Large hail, though very rare, can cause injury or loss of life and major property damages, including crop damages. Normally, however, hail damage is limited to automobiles and minor building damage. Both lightning and high winds have the potential to cause loss of life

20 and considerable property damage. The power of lightning s electrical charge and intense heat can electrocute on contact, split trees, and ignite fires. The most typical threat of high winds is power outages, which usually occurs when trees fall onto power lines, although they can cause severe damage to buildings and infrastructure. Past Occurrences. NCDC records indicate frequent severe storms during the period. There have been 138 severe storm events reported for Chambers County, averaging over three per year. The most severe storm passed through on September 17, 1994 three miles north of Lafayette and caused an estimate of $500,000 of damage. The storm was responsible for damage to four houses off Highway 431. Table 3 shows an annual summary of severe storm events. Table 3. Annual Summary of Severe Storm Events Year Type Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages ($) 1965 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $0 10

21 Year Type Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages ($) 1990 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Thunderstorm/High Winds $ Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $500, Hail $ Lightning $30,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $49,000 Hail $25,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $22, Hail $30, Hail $25,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $15, Thunderstorm/High Winds $70, Thunderstorm/High Winds $25, Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $4,000 Hail $3,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $75,000 Hail $5,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $46, Thunderstorm/High Winds $67, Hail $16,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $12,000 Hail $2,000 Thunderstorm/High Winds $2, Hail $0 11

22 Year Type Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages ($) Thunderstorm/High Winds $5, Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $5,000 Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $22,000 Hail $0 Thunderstorm/High Winds $28,000 TOTAL $1,083,000 Annual Average $24,067 Probability of Future Events. It is certain that severe storms will show annual occurrences throughout all of Chambers County jurisdictions. Although, not every storm will exhibit all the hazards associated with severe storms; high winds are less frequent, and large, damaging hail is rare. 2. Tornadoes Profile On April 27 th, 2011, at least 28 tornadoes touched down in central Alabama, causing over a thousand injuries and 249 deaths within the state. Map 1 shows the paths and intensity of these tornadoes. A tornado with an EF-4 rating touched down in central Elmore County and moved eastward across Tallapoosa County into western Chambers County, where the funnel followed County Road 54 north and completely destroyed one home within the county. No deaths or injuries were reported in Chambers County. 12

23 Map 1. Tracks of Tornados Paths in Alabama on April 27,

24 Chart 1, below, shows Chambers County s monthly tornado frequency, with the months of March and April being the most frequent months from (The SATT software, produced by VorTek, LLC, shows tornadic activity within a 18 mile radius of the center of Chambers County, which includes some areas beyond the county limits). Chart 1. Annual Frequency of Tornado Intensity, Location. All Chambers County locations and jurisdictions are equally at risk for tornadoes. Map 2 Chambers County Tornado Locations, , shows touchdown locations and paths. 14

25 Map 2. Chambers County Tornado Locations,

26 Extent. Tornadoes pose a significant threat to Chambers County communities. The Hazard Mitigation Planning Commission (HMPC) ranked tornadoes second among all hazards in terms of exposure, risk and probability of future occurrences. In Chambers County, tornadoes tend to be severe but infrequent. Chart 2 below shows the frequency of tornadoes by intensity over the period. The average intensity of tornadoes is in between an F-1 and F-2 rating. Chart 2. Annual Frequency of Tornado Intensity, Source: VorTek, LLC. SATT 3.0 (Site Assessment of Tornado Threat) software Past Occurrences. According to the National Climatic Data Center, Chambers County was the site of twelve tornado events between 1970 and These events caused 14 injuries, 2 deaths and damages of $3.5 million an average of 0.3 tornadoes and $88,000 in property damages per year. The tornado from the April 27, 2011 outbreak discussed above is not yet recorded in the NCDC database. Table 4. Annual Summary of Tornado Events, Year Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages $250, $25, $25, $25, $25, $25, $2,500, $550,000 16

27 Year Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages $42, $3, $50,000 TOTAL $3,520,000 Annual Average $88,000 Probability of Future Events. If historical trends continue, Chambers County can anticipate one tornado once every three or four years. Tornadoes cost Chambers County communities an average of $90,000 in property damages per year and result in one casualty every ten years. 3. Winter Storms/Freezes Profile Chambers County s mild subtropical climate makes winter storms infrequent. Winter storms that do strike Chambers County are relatively mild, characterized by snow dusting or light freezing rain. On average, the county receives 0.4 inches of snowfall annually with one winter storm event every year. Rarely do snowfalls exceed two inches or freezes disrupt road travel for long periods. Although, when winter storms or severe freezes do occur, major transportation disruptions and power outages are expected, due to the inexperience of having to deal with such infrequent events. The risks of winter storms and freezes include loss of life due to cold, power outages for extended periods of time, agriculture damage, and road hazards. Fallen trees and limbs and heavy snow loads can collapse roofs and cause downed power and communication lines. Therefore, snowfalls of over two inches and long-lasting freezes, though rare, pose the greatest threats. Disruptions can last for several days following these extreme winter storm conditions. Winter temperatures in Chambers County are generally moderate; the average temperature is 44.3 F and the average winter minimum is 32 F. Extreme cold temperatures are rare for this area. These rare temperature lows can result in burst plumbing in homes and occasional deaths due to lack of sufficient heating or exposure. The lowest recorded temperature of -7 F occurred in 1985 (see Table 5). Table 5. Winter Weather Observations Item Average Winter Temperature Average Winter Minimum Temperature Lowest Temperature (January 21, 1985) Observation 44.3 F 32 F -7 F 17

28 Average Season Snowfall Largest Snowfall (1983) 0.4 inches 5 inches Source: SE Regional Climate Center/National Climatic Data Center Location. All participating jurisdictions are equally likely to experience winter storms/freezes, which may be accompanied by snow, freezing rains, and extreme temperature lows. Extent. Chambers County experiences annual disruptions and some damages due to severe winter storms/freezes. The yearly average snowfall is 0.4 inches, but some events have produced major disruptions and damages. Winter temperatures on average are above freezing, but occasional freezes do occur. The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) rated the extent of winter storms/freezes as the third highest threat among the natural hazards. Past Occurrences. Table 6 Annual Summary of Winter Storm/Extreme Cold Events provides a summary of the available historical data from 1996 to 2010 for winter weather events in Chambers County from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). There have been fifteen reported winter storms or extreme cold events since The most recent recorded snow event was on February 12, 2010, which brought one to seven inches of snow to the eastern and southern sections of Central Alabama. Chambers County had one inch of snow accumulation. The largest snowfall recorded in Chambers County occurred on March 24, 1983 at 5 inches. Table 6. Annual Summary of Winter Storm/Extreme Cold Events, Year Type Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages 1996 Extreme Cold $52,000,0000 Storm $978, Storm $ Storm $1,100, Snow $ Extreme Cold $ Storm $425, Snow $ Snow $ Snow $0 TOTAL $54,503,000 Annual Average $3,893,071 18

29 Source: National Climatic Data Center Probability of Future Events. Winter storms/freezes should continue to affect Chambers County approximately every two years. More severe events, such as those with snowfalls exceeding two inches, enduring freezes, and extremely low temperatures, should occur once every five years, on average. These average estimates are based solely on the continuance of historical trends and are not guarantees of future weather behavior. The HMPC rated the probability of future occurrences at moderately high. Map 3 shows the moderate relative frequency of winter storms in Central Alabama from 1993 to Map 3. Alabama Winter Storm Frequency ( ) Source: 2007 Alabama State Plan 4. Drought/Heat Waves Profile An historic drought affected most of Alabama from 2006 to During this period Chambers County experienced 12 drought events and was rated as having a D2 Severe Drought classification. Location. Droughts and heat waves affect all areas and jurisdictions of Chambers County equally. Certain areas, such as agricultural areas and areas with vulnerable water supplies, may be more susceptible to the adverse effects of droughts. 19 Extent. Typically, Chambers County droughts and extreme heat events do not carry reported damages. The single casualty on record occurred in 1999, when heat index

30 temperatures of 110 degrees lead to the death of an elderly woman. The highest recorded temperature of 107 occurred in July of The HMPC rated the extent of droughts/heat waves as the fourth highest threat among the natural hazards. Past Occurrences. According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) records, there have been 14 droughts in Chambers County between 1996 and 2010 (see Table 7). These events are recorded in Appendix D Hazard Profile Data and Extreme Heat Events. Also, during the same period, Chambers County endured two episodes of extreme heat conditions (see Appendix D), which caused one death. Table 7. Annual Summary of Drought/Extreme Heat Events, Year Type Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages 1996 Extreme Heat $ Extreme Heat $ Drought $ Drought $ Drought $ Drought $0 TOTAL $0 Annual Average $0 Source: National Climatic Data Center Probability of Future Events. Droughts and heat waves are expected to affect Chambers County, on average, once every year. 5. Hurricanes Profile On October 4, 1995, Hurricane Opal came ashore in the Florida Panhandle and continued to move north-northeast into the state of Alabama. The hurricane caused extensive damage, and the eastern portion of the state experienced the most damage. Trees, signs and power lines were downed statewide as 2.6 million Alabama residents lost electricity for up to one week. Hurricane Opal caused $0.1 billion in property damage and $10 million in crop damage. The following map shows the path and strength of Opal as it passed through Chambers County. Location. All Chambers County locations and jurisdictions generally share equal risks for hurricanes. The paths of the storms since 1851 are shown on Map 4 Hurricane & Storm Paths, , which shows all areas of Chambers County are equally affected. The County generally does not have many direct hits from hurricanes, but because of its close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico it can still get the effects of high winds and heavy rain from hurricanes and tropical storms as they move north.

31 Extent. Hurricanes pose the greatest threat to life and property, but tropical depressions and storms can also cause extensive damage and loss of life. On average, Chambers County experiences a hurricane event once every five years, with severe damage. Hurricanes can be accompanied by tropical storms, tropical depressions, severe storms, high winds, floods, and even tornadoes. The last recorded hurricane event for Chambers County was a tropical storm in Tropical storms and depressions often bring torrential rains and flooding that may outlive the storm itself by several days. A relatively weak tropical storm or depression may cause more damage than a high-intensity, fast-moving hurricane if the storm lingers long enough to saturate flood plains. Tornadoes may also form as a by-product of hurricanes. The threat of tornadoes expands the geographic scope of risk, because tornadoes can cause severe damage inland. Half of all hurricanes produce at least one tornado typically within 12 hours of landfall and during daylight hours. The HMPC rated the extent of hurricanes as a moderate threat among the natural hazards. 21

32 Map 4. Hurricane & Storm Paths,

33 Past Occurrences. Table 8 Annual Summary of Hurricane Events, provides a summary of the available historical data for hurricane events in Chambers County from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). There have been three reported hurricane or tropical storm events since The most recent tropical storm event was on August 29, 2005, when a storm system spun off Hurricane Katrina. Power outages lasted more than a week for some residents. Although specific estimates for Chambers County are unavailable, the NCDC storm report indicates that rainfall reached six inches in some areas of Alabama. This storm caused $34.9 million in property damage and eight injuries total, although no injuries were reported for Chambers County. 23 Table 8. Annual Summary of Hurricane Events, Year Type Number Deaths Injuries Total Damage 1995 Hurricane $110,000, Tropical Storm $34,913,000 Total* $144,913,000 Annual Average* $9,660,867 Source: National Climatic Data Center *Includes other counties in Alabama Probability of Future Events. Historical records are not a guarantee of future frequency, but extrapolating from previous events can provide a baseline for planning mitigation strategies. Due to the County s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, Chambers County can expect remnants of Gulf Coast hurricanes and, occasionally, direct impacts. On average, Chambers County can anticipate a hurricane event to occur once every five years with around $9.6 million in damages. 6. Floods Profile On May 7, 2003, Chambers County suffered its most destructive recorded flood event. The Chattahoochee River flooded eastern portions of the county due to heavy rainfall. Four residences were completely destroyed, and 32 homes suffered major damage. Thirty-one businesses suffered major damage. Government infrastructure received nearly $900,000 in damage. The flood caused a total of $4.5 million in property damage and $275,000 in crop damage. According to the HMPC and surveys of community opinions, floods are a moderate concern to Chambers County communities. NOAA records affirm these public perceptions. Location. The Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) indicates Chambers County has extensive areas prone to flooding. Map 5 Flood Zones shows that most of the flood zones reside in unincorporated Chambers County, where there is less population density. The cities of Lanett and Valley include areas

34 designated as 500-year and 100-year flood zones located along the Chattahoochee River. However, Chambers County s primary concern is localized, flash flooding of roads and bridges. Extent. The extent of each flood varies according to the amount of rainfall, the rate of storm water flow, and the capacity of the receiving channel to discharge flood waters. Chambers County experiences riverine flooding, primarily along local streams and tributaries of the Chattahoochee River, many of which are flash floods. 24

35 Map 5. Flood Zones 25

36 Past Occurrences. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) records indicate frequent flooding in Chambers County over the period since There have been 13 floods reported with a frequency of almost one per year, as shown in Table 9 below. According to these NCDC estimates, damage has averaged $375K per year and around $403K per event. Table 9. Annual Summary of Flood Events, Year Number Deaths Injuries Total Damages $17, $30, $8, $5,145, $3, $37, $10, $0 TOTAL $5,250,000 Annual Average $375,000 * includes damages for Chambers and other Alabama counties. Source: National Climatic Data Center Probability of Future Events. Past trends indicate that regular occurrences of heavy rainfall will continue to create flooding throughout Chambers County. Chambers County should expect approximately one flood event per year, although the severity of damage may vary widely from one year to the next. 7. Dam/Levee Failures Profile Dam and levee failures are potentially catastrophic flood events and can occur with little warning. A failure is usually the result of neglect, unsound construction, or structural damage attributable to an earthquake or other natural hazard. Severe dam and levee failures are very rare in the United States, but, when they do occur, downstream damages can include devastating human casualties, property damages, and altered natural landscapes. 26 Location. According to the U.S. Corps of Engineers 1999 Dam Inventory, there are 47 dams and levees in Chambers County (see Table 10). Many of these dams have minimal discharge and are used for catfish ponds. Only 17 of the 47 dams have significant discharges; only one of the dams, West Point Dam, contains significant volumes of water. Lanett and Valley are both located on the Chattahoochee, downstream from West Point Dam. Map 6 Chambers County Dams/Levees show the major dams for the County. These structures are located across the County, so a slight risk of dam or levee failure exists for several incorporated jurisdictions. Additionally, the Langdale and Riverview Dams have significant

37 inundation areas within Chambers County, although the dams are located in the State of Georgia. 27

38 Map 6. Chambers County Dams/Levees 28

39 Table 10. Chambers County Dams/Levees Name River Owner Year Completed Dam Length Height Riverside No. 1 Tr Moores Cr Private Max Storage Riverside No. 2 Tr Moores Cr Private Chambers County Public Lake Wilcat Creek State of Alabama Edge Sandy Creek Private Lanier Tr Oseligee Creek Private Allens Tr Pigeon Roost Creek Private Kilpatrick Tr Osanippa Creek Private Hinkle Tr Halawakee Creek Private Stephens Mill South Sandy Creek Private Jeff Beard Tr Sandy Creek Private Robinson Tr Davis Creek Private J H Hines Tr Finley Creek Private Flint Hill Tr Halawakee Creek Private Dawson Day Tr Water Works Creek Private Nolen Tr Chatahospee Mill Creek Private Clay Floyd Tr Halawakee Creek Private Simmons Tr Oseligee Creek Private Wheeler Tr Allen Creek Private W C Hines Tr Finley Creek Private Sharpe No 2 Tr Carlisle Creek Private Sharpe No 1 Tr Carlisle Creek Private Slaughter Tr Chatahospee Mill Creek Private Welch Tr Caty Creek Private Royston Tr Chickasanoxee Creek Private Robinson Tr Wells Creek Private Thompson Tr Hardley Creek Private Darden Tr Moores Creek Private Stricklands Lake Dam Tr Cuss Creek Private Edgar Tr Sandy Creek Private Slay Rocky Branch Private Phillips Tr Moores Creek Private Smith Tr Moores Creek Private Dempsey Tr Little Chatahospee Private Kendrick-Holmes Tr Osaligee Cr Private White Tr Little Chatahospee Cr Private Spencer Tr Guss Cr Private Baker Tr Guss Creek Private

40 Name River Owner Year Completed Dam Length Height Cunningham Tr West Point Lake Private Max Storage Hudson Tr West Point Lake Private Langley Tr Stroud Cr Private Brown Tr Chickasanoxee Cr Private Taunton Tr Osanippa Cr Private Montgomery Tr Halawakee Cr Private Timmons Tr Oseligee Cr Private High Pine Creek Site 12 Caty Creek Private High Pine Water Shed Dam No 11 Caty Creek Private Lafayette City Lake Finley Creek City of Lafayette Source: US Corps of Engineers 1999 Dams Inventory Extent. West Point Lake was created by the Army Corp of Engineers during the 1960 s through the construction of a series of dams on the Chattahoochee River. A failure at any of the dams downstream from West Point Lake could have devastating consequences for the municipalities of Lanett and Valley, although the risk of a failure at any of these dams is very small. Below, Maps 7 and 8 illustrate the dam inundation areas, according to a 1983 study by the Corp of Engineers. (Note: The maps include labels for the municipalities of Fairfax, Langdale, Riverview, and Shawmut, which were combined into the City of Valley.) 30

41 Map 7. West Point Lake Dam Inundation Area 31

42 Map 8. West Point Lake Dam Inundation Area 32

43 Past Occurrences. There have been no documented dam/levee failures within Chambers County. Probability of Future Events. The risks to Chambers County regarding dam/levee failure are minimal. The U.S. Corps of Engineers monitors and inspects the West Point Dam; therefore the dam poses little risk for failure. 8. Wildfires Profile The two primary categories of wildfires experienced in Chambers County are wildland fires and interface fires. Wildland fires are uncontrolled fires that spread through vegetative fuels. Chambers County has vast forested lands, grass lands, and brush to fuel wildfires. Map 9 Chambers County Forest Fuels shows the extensive coverage of forest fuels throughout the county, as well as developed urban areas in proximity to the forest fuels. Interface fires spread through both vegetation and the built up environment, which can be seen on Map 10 Chambers County Vegetation Cover. Wild land-urban interface, which is the transition area between human development and unoccupied land, increases the risk of man-made wildfires. Non-permitted burns are a major issue in relation to wildfires. These burns tend to rage out of control, leading to damaging fires. Standard land management practices call for prescribed burns, thinning, mowing and the use of herbicides to reduce dangerous concentrations of underbrush vegetation, which in return, helps reduce the fuels available for wildfires and aids in the development of healthy habitats and regeneration of species. Location. Primarily rural areas of unincorporated Chambers County are most susceptible to wildfires; however, wildfires can occur in any area with the proper mix of fuel, topography, and weather. The vulnerable wild land-urban interface makes all cities and towns equally susceptible. Map 11 Chambers County Wildfire Risk, denotes risk levels for wildfires by area. Chambers County s major concern and main cause for wildfires is debris burning. Extent. Chambers County has multiple fuel sources, as shown on Map 9 Chambers County Forest Fuels, and is prone to drought and thunderstorms which increase the potential severity of wildfires significantly. Weather conditions, given the high frequency of severe storms with lightning and periodic severe drought conditions, can exacerbate wildfires. The degree of exposure of properties at the wild land-urban interface also affects the extent of wildfires in Chambers County, especially at the edge of developed areas of cities and towns. High risk properties located within these interface areas have the greatest potential for property damages and threats to life. Firefighting resources can affect the severity of wildfires. Rural fire departments are almost exclusively made up of volunteers and usually have limited firefighting resources that are stretched during periods when numerous fires occur. These limited firefighting resources can compound the risk and extent of wildfire damages. Past Occurrences. According to the Alabama Forestry Commission, Chambers County has had seventeen wildfires for the 2011 calendar year, resulting in acres burned. Between 33

44 1997 and 2009, the County averaged 44 fires per year, with an average of acres burned per year. Map 12 designates Alabama counties according to the total acres burned by wildfire from 1999 to Chambers County ranks 36 th among 67 Alabama counties for number of fires and 44 th for acres burned. Map 13 Chambers County Fire Observations shows the location of wildfires over between 2000 and March Map 14 Chambers County Fires Occurrences shows areas at various levels of wildfire occurrences from low to high. These wildfire occurrence areas generally coincide with areas denoted as low to high risk areas on Map 11 Chambers County Wildfire Risk. Probability of Future Events. Chambers County, on average, is the site of 44 wildfires per year, which cause damage to acres. The average size of each wildfire is 7.3 acres. Unless there are major changes in the weather or the urban-land interface, the probability of future events based on recent trends and historical information should remain approximately 44 wildfires per year. Although one can extract data and estimates of future frequency from historical information, the risk of a specific wildfire occurring and the location of damage are largely random. 34

45 Map 9. Chambers County Forest Fuels 35

46 Map 10. Chambers County Vegetation Cover 36

47 Map 11. Chambers County Wildfire Risk 37

48 Map 12. Alabama Total Acres Burned

49 Map 13. Chambers County Fire Observations 39

50 Map 14. Chambers County Fire Occurrences 40

51 9. Sinkholes/Land Subsidence Profile Most sinkholes in Alabama are associated with limestone and dolomite outcrops that occur beneath the topsoil. Chambers County, located in Central Alabama, does not contain any major carbonate rock formations (see Map 15 Outcrops of Carbonate Rocks in Alabama ). When carbonate rock interacts with underground water, the water dissolves the rock and thereby carves out caves, subterranean water corridors, and other geological features collectively known as karst topography. Alabama contains over 2,000 caves because of the karst topography. Sinkholes occur when holes in the carbonate rock grow large enough to collapse under the weight of higher sediments, topsoil, foliage, or human structures. Certain activities can increase the potential for sinkholes in these areas, such as: periods of drought, excessive rainfall, well pump-age, and construction. Map 15. Outcrops of Carbonate Rocks in Alabama Source: Geological Survey of Alabama According to the Geological Survey of Alabama, Chambers County is located in an area with no sinkhole activity and subsistence, as shown on Map 16 Active Sinkhole Areas in Alabama. The areas highlighted below in red on Map 16 approximates the regions of limestone and dolomite outcrops identified in Map

52 Map 16. Active Sinkhole Areas in Alabama Source: The Geological Survey of Alabama Location. All Chambers County locations and jurisdictions are equally unlikely to experience sinkholes. Extent. No data suggest that sinkholes are a threat to Chambers County. Barring new data or changed conditions, it is unlikely that any county jurisdiction or community will be significantly impacted by sinkholes. Past Occurrences. Data from the Geological Survey of Alabama counts over 4,000 sinkhole events in Alabama; however, there are no reports of sinkholes in Chambers County. Probability of Future Events. Chambers County lacks a history of sinkholes as well as the geological conditions conducive to sinkholes; therefore, the probability of future sinkhole events is minimal for all jurisdictions. However, sinkholes can be triggered by a change in the local environment that affects the soil mass. Ongoing data collection by the Geological Survey of Alabama might reveal unknown conditions that raise the likelihood of sinkholes within Chambers County. 42

53 10. Earthquakes Profile According to the Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA), records show hundreds of earthquakes in Alabama since 1886, but there are none on record for Chambers County. Map 17 Seismic Zones in Southeastern United States illustrates that most Alabama earthquakes are associated with the Southern Appalachian Seismic Zone, which ends north of Chambers County. Map 17. Seismic Zones in Southeastern United States Source: Geological Survey of Alabama, Mapping and Hazards Program Location. All of Chambers County is equally exposed to earthquakes. When earthquakes strike a region, it is impossible to predict which area will be affected the most at a subcounty level. Extent. According to the GSA, recent seismograph records indicate that earthquakes in the state are frequent but not strong enough to be felt on the land surface. Earthquakes can occur anywhere in Alabama but are unlikely to cause damage. The severity of an earthquake is measured on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, which measures earthquakes by energy released on a scale of 1 to 12 (see Figure 1). 43

54 Figure 1. Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale I. Not felt. II. III. IV. Felt by persons at rest, on upper floors, or favorably placed. Felt indoors. Vibrations like passing of light trucks. Vibration like passing of heavy trucks. V. Felt outdoors. Small unstable objects displaced or upset. VI. VII. VIII. IX. Felt by all. Furniture moved. Week plaster/masonry cracks. Difficult to stand. Damage to masonry and chimneys. Partial collapse of masonry. Frame houses moved. Masonry seriously damaged or destroyed. X. Many buildings and bridges destroyed. XI. XII. Rails bent greatly. Pipelines severely damaged. Damage nearly total. Source: Geological Survey of Alabama The USGS has developed a methodology for assessing the magnitude and frequency of seismic events. This methodology measures the probability of exceeding a peak ground motion measured as peak ground acceleration (PGA) within a given period of years. The PGA map (Map 18) for Alabama shows the potential severity of a 50-year earthquake in Chambers County is extremely low at 6%g, where %g is the percentage of the total horizontal ground acceleration of the earthquake event. 44

55 Map 18. Peak Ground Acceleration Source: United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Hazards Program Past Occurrences. Map 19 Alabama Earthquake Locations shows the location and magnitude of recorded earthquakes from 1886 through May The Geological Survey of Alabama does not have any records, nor was the planning team able to uncover any evidence that earthquakes have occurred in Chambers County. 45

56 Map 19. Alabama Earthquake Locations 46

57 Probability of Future Events. The probability of future earthquakes is equally unlikely for all jurisdictions in Chambers County, which is at a minimal risk for a significant, damagecausing earthquake. 11. Landslides Chambers County is in a location that has low susceptibility and low incidence of landslides. According to the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee and surveys of community opinions, landslides are a minimum concern to Chambers County communities. The Geologic Survey of Alabama (GSA) has studied the potential for landslides throughout Alabama. Geographic Information System (GIS) data provided by the GSA for this plan, classifies landslide incident and susceptibility shown on Map 20 Chambers County Landslide Areas, as follows: Landslide susceptibility. Susceptibility is the probable degree of response to landslide triggers, that is, the response to cutting or excavation, loading of slopes, or to unusually high rainfall. Generally, unusually high rainfall or changes in existing conditions can initiate landslide movement in areas where rocks and soils have experienced numerous landslides in the past. The potential for landslides is classified into one of the following categories: High susceptibility greater than 15% of a given area is susceptible to land sliding; Medium susceptibility 1.5% to 15% of a given area is susceptible to land sliding; or Low susceptibility less than 1.5% of a given area is susceptible to land sliding. No susceptibility indicated susceptibility is the same as or lower than incidence. Landslide incidence. Landslide incidence is the number of landslides that have occurred. These areas are classified according to the percentage of the area affected by landslides, as follows: High incidence greater than 15% of a given area has previously experienced land sliding; Medium incidence 1.5% to 15% of a given area has previously experienced land sliding; or Low incidence less than 1.5% of a given area has previously experienced land sliding. Location. All jurisdictions in Chambers County, as shown below in Map 20 Chambers County Landslide Areas, are rated as having a low degree of susceptibility to landslides. 47

58 Extent. No landslides are reported for Chambers County. The county s flat geography limits the severity of damage from landslides. Past Occurrences. The National Climatic Data Center shows no records of landslides in Chambers County. The planning team was unable to uncover evidence that landsides have occurred in the County. Probability Events. Based on the lack of evidence of past occurrences and geographic features conducive to landslides, the probability of future landslides is equally unlikely for all jurisdictions in Chambers County. Any future landslides are likely to be the result of construction activities and will be commensurately minor in scope. 48

59 Map 20. Chambers County Landslide Areas 49

60 E. Technological/Human-Caused Hazard Profiles 1. Hazardous Materials Spills (transportation-related) Transportation-related: Hazardous materials are chemical substances which if released or misused can pose a threat to the environment or health. These chemicals are used in industry, agriculture, medicine, research, and consumer goods. Hazardous materials may be in the form of explosives, flammable and combustible substances, poisons, and radioactive materials. Many of these chemicals are transported daily on highways, railroads, waterways and pipelines. If improperly released, these hazardous materials can cause death, serious injury, long-lasting health effects, damage to buildings, homes and other property. Refer to the image below for the various types of chemicals in Chambers County. Fixed location-related: Hazard materials spills may occur at fixed locations including factories, storage facilities, and production sites. The material may be solid, liquid, or gaseous and be released from fixed or mobile containers. Examples of hazard materials typically at industrial locations include chlorine, sodium hydroxide, sulfuric acid, anhydrous ammonia, and gasoline. The chemicals may be corrosive or damaging over time. A secondary effect of a hazardous materials spill may be an explosion or fire. The w eather conditions at the time of the incident will also affect how the hazard develops. These spills have the potential to contaminate the air, water and land. There also may be a need for short-term evacuation of the affected area. Location. The location of hazardous materials spills may occur along any of the transportation channels used to transport the materials. There is over one hundred miles of roadways within Chambers County (see Map 21). Daily, there are tons of hazardous materials transported on the roadways and are susceptible to an incident. There are over 30 miles of railway within the County and a large part of it directly through more densely populated areas. 50

61 Map 21. Transportation Facilities 51

62 52 Extent. The extent of the hazard is dependent upon the type of chemical transported and the method of release. The Chambers County Hazardous Materials Preparedness Plan defines four response levels and the appropriate actions needed to mitigate the hazard. Past Occurrences. Table 11. Historical Hazardous Materials Incidents Date of Incident City Hazardous Class Total Amount of Damages 9/28/1993 Valley Flammable - Combustible Liquid $2 1/13/1994 Valley Flammable - Combustible Liquid $0 1/30/1994 Valley Flammable - Combustible Liquid $0 2/20/1995 Cusseta Corrosive Material $0 6/27/1998 Valley Flammable - Combustible Liquid $0 9/13/1998 Cusseta Combustible Liquid $8,290 11/8/2002 Valley Flammable - Combustible Liquid $120 1/2/2003 Lanett Flammable - Combustible Liquid $6,150 7/22/2004 Lanett Poisonous Materials $36,000 9/6/2006 Cusseta Flammable - Combustible Liquid $0 7/15/2009 Cusseta Poisonous Materials $0 9/21/2010 Cusseta Corrosive Material $0 3/15/2012 Five Points Flammable Gas $40,000 *All incidents occurred on the highway. Probability Events. A transportation-related hazardous materials incident can occur at any time. 2. Pandemic/Disease Outbreak A pandemic is defined as a widespread epidemic of infectious disease. A pandemic must be both widespread and infectious to be defined as such. Throughout history there have been many pandemic disease outbreaks; examples include smallpox, tuberculosis, malaria, HIV/AIDS, and most recently H1N1 influenza outbreak. For an epidemic to reach pandemic status there must be a good baseline regarding the rate of incidence and the rate must increase above the baseline. An outbreak is defined as two or more similarly ill people who live in different households and have common exposure. Outbreaks are typically more local and less serious than epidemics. Some diseases are common and typically not reportable and are only reported

63 during an outbreak, such as norovirus, food poisoning, and salmonella. Outbreaks typically occur in one of three patterns: 1) common source - when all victims acquire the infection from the same source; 2) continuous source - when the exposure occurs over multiple incubation periods; 3) point source is when the exposure occurs in less than one incubation period. Outbreaks can also be related by behavioral risk, such as sexually transmitted diseases and it can be zoonotic which is a communicable disease among the animal population. Location. The location of a pandemic disease outbreak is extremely difficult to define. The nature of the disease will be most apparent in vulnerable populations. The World Health Organization (WHO) constantly monitors the outbreaks of diseases and determines the possibility of pandemics. Guidelines for prevention will be posted on local, State and National websites when outbreaks are beginning and ongoing. Extent. The extent of the pandemic/disease outbreak will be based on the infectious disease. Some outbreaks may be somewhat mild and not-widespread. Other pandemics including HIV/AIDS, smallpox, tuberculosis and malaria may be severe and even cause death. Past Occurrences. Year Disease Outbreak 2003 Hepatitis A 2009 Salmonella 2009 Influenza Probability Events. The probability of future occurrences is high. From January to June 2012, there have already been 56 outbreaks in Alabama, according to the Alabama Department of Public Health. 3. Controls Failures Controls failures can occur in both water and electrical systems. These failures can result from either natural or man-made hazard occurrences. Power failure is defined as the short or long-term loss of electric power to an area. The electricity network has numerous parts that may be susceptible to damage; these include power stations, electric transmission lines, substations or other parts of the distribution system. Power failure can be especially critical at sites such as hospitals, waste water treatment plants, and telecommunication systems. Water systems controls failure occurs when the regular water utilities are interrupted or damaged. When a water system failure occurs, safe drinking water may not be available to the population at large. Boil notices may be in effect to ensure the safety of the drinking water. Location. All of Chambers County is susceptible to both power and water outages. Extent. Within Chambers County, no man-made control failures have occurred. Thus, the extent of the damage is unknown. 53

64 Past Occurrences. No man-made controls failures have been reported within Chambers County. Probability Events. Based on the lack of evidence of past occurrences, the probability of future occurrence is low. 4. Airplane Crash The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) defines an aircraft accident as an occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight and all such persons have disembarked, and in which any person suffers death or serious injury, or in which the aircraft receives substantial damage. It should be noted that this definition includes unmanned aircraft. Secondary effects of airplane crashes are also hazardous materials spills and fires/explosions. Location. All areas within Chambers County are susceptible to an airplane crash. Extent. There have been no airplane crashes within Chambers County, so the extent is unknown. Past Occurrences. There are no documented airplane crashes within Chambers County. Probability Events. Based on the lack of documented past occurrences, the probability of a future occurrence is low. 5. Urban Fires/Explosions Urban fires occur primarily in cities or towns with the potential to rapidly spread to adjoining structures. These fires damage and destroy homes, schools, commercial buildings, and vehicles. According to the United States Fire Administration, cooking is the leading cause of residential fires and home heating is the second. Fires caused by home heating are usually caused by portable space heaters. Hotels, businesses, and educational buildings follow as the next most vulnerable buildings in which fires occur. Explosive material is a reactive substance that contains a great amount of potential energy that can produce an explosion if released suddenly. The detonation of an explosion may be delivered via person, vehicle, or projectile. The extent of the damage caused by an explosion is determined by the type and quantity of explosive. An explosion creates a shock wave. If the shock wave is a supersonic detonation, then the source of the blast is deemed high explosive. Subsonic shock waves are created by low explosives through the slower burning process known as deflagration. Explosives also may also be categorized by their sensitivity. Sensitive materials that can be initiated by a relatively small amount of heat or pressure are primary explosives and materials that are relatively insensitive are secondary explosives. This potential energy stored in an explosive material may be chemical energy, pressurized compressed gas, or nuclear energy. Location. All areas within Chambers County may be susceptible to an explosion. Extent. The extent of the hazard is unknown. 54

65 Past Occurrences. There have been no occurrences of urban fires or explosions within Chambers County. Probability Events. Since most of Chambers County is rural and suburban, the likelihood of an urban fire is low. The probability of an explosion is moderate. 6. School Violence School safety is a critical issue in the lives of students, educators, parents, families, and community members. There continues to be concern over the safety of Alabama schools due to recent local, state, and national incidents of school violence. The State Board of Education mandated that all local school systems within Alabama develop plans to address these issues in According to their guidance, these plans are to remain internal documents due to the nature of the threat. School violence can take many forms; examples include fighting, weapon use such as shooting, gang violence and electronic aggression. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) conducts regular youth risk behavior surveys and their 2009 study shows that 7.7% of all students are threatened or injured with a weapon on school property. Mitigation of school violence is constantly the focus of administrators and educators. Acts of violence can disrupt the learning process and have a negative effect on students, the educators, and the community at large. Location. All school facilities within Chambers County can be susceptible to school violence. Extent. The extent of damage is unknown due to the lack of historical data within Chambers County. Past Occurrences. There have been no previous documented cases of school violence within Chambers County. Probability Events. There is a low probability that an act of school violence will occur within Chambers County. 7. Cyber Attacks A cyber attack is an attempt to compromise the function of a computer-based system by another computer. It also may be the attempt to track the online movements of individuals without their permission. Many of these attacks are undetectable by the end user or network administrator. Many times the goal of the attack is to gather information about the end user without causing damage to equipment or systems. This type of spyware normally operates in the background and is highly unlikely to prevent usual functions of the system. There are more aggressive forms of cyber attack such as malware that may include malicious codes and compromise the system infiltrated. The consequences of a cyber attack may include identity theft, fraud, spamming, phishing, disruption of service, website defacement and intellectual property theft or unauthorized access. Location. All Chambers County computer networks may be susceptible to cyber attack if not properly protected. Extent. There is no history of cyber attacks within Chambers County, so the extent is unknown. 55

66 Past Occurrences. There are no past occurrences of cyber attacks within Chambers County. Probability Events. There is a low probability of cyber attack within Chambers County. 8. Bio-terrorism/Bio-attacks According to the CDC a bioterrorism attack is the deliberate release of viruses, bacteria, or other germs (agents) used to cause illness or death in people, animals, or plants. Biological agents may be spread through water, air or in food. Most agents are found in nature, but they may be changed and manipulated to increase their potency. Biological agents are categorized into three categories depending on how easily they can be spread and the severity of illness or death they cause. Category A agents are the highest risk and Category C are considered emerging threats for disease. Category A - high priority agents that include organisms and toxins that pose the highest risk to the public and national security: They can be easily transmitted from person to person. They result in high death rates and have the potential for major public health impact. They might cause public panic and social disruption. They require special action for public health preparedness. Category B agents that include the following attributes: They are moderately easy to spread. They result in moderate illness rates and low death rates. The require enhancements of CDC s laboratory and capacity and enhanced disease monitoring. Category C - agents including emerging pathogens that could be engineered for mass spread in the future because: They are easily available They are easily produced and spread They have potential for high morbidity and mortality rates and major health impact. Location. All of Chambers County is potentially susceptible to a bioterrorism attack. Extent. The extent is unknown due to the lack of documented previous occurrences. Past Occurrences. There are no documented previous occurrences of bioterrorism in Chambers County. Probability Events. The probability of a bioterrorism attack is low within Chambers County. F. Vulnerability of Structures 1. Scope of Structure Inventory The following section presents an inventory of existing and future buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure. For the purposes of this risk assessment, vulnerability refers to the exposure of buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure to a particular natural or technological/human-caused hazard and their susceptibility to damage from the hazard. The 56

67 inventory in this section forms the loss estimates in Section G. Estimate of Dollar Losses to Vulnerable Structures. Many Chambers County hazards are county-wide, including severe storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms/freezes, droughts/heat waves, wildfires, earthquakes, and technological/human-caused hazards. Floods, sinkholes, landslides and dam failures, on the other hand, are location-specific hazards. 2. Inventory Methodology The planning team assembled structure inventories in three steps. First, a countywide inventory of the number and property values of structures was created using FEMA s HAZUS-MH, which is a risk assessment software tool for projecting losses from floods, hurricane winds, and earthquakes. The planning team used the latest edition of HAZUS-MH software (release MR-3, Patch 3, as of March 2009). HAZUS-MH modeled scenarios for Chambers County using a Level 1 analysis, which utilizes data provided with the software and calculates damages at the county level. Calculations below the county level are not recommended, because accuracy tends to diminish. Second, the planning team used local GIS data to create maps and lists of critical facilities located in vulnerable areas. The GIS data came from Chambers County, Geologic Survey of Alabama, U.S.G.S., National Weather Service, NFIP, U.S. Census Bureau, Alabama State Data Center, and the Alabama Forestry Commission. Third, to estimate future building values and exposures, the planning team applied population projections from the Alabama State Data Center to the HAZUS-MH tables of existing building values. It is important to note that both population projections and HAZUS-generated structure counts and values are approximate; however, the planning team s estimates are useful for prioritizing mitigation measures by place and hazard, since the relative values of existing and future populations, values, and rates of exposure are probably accurate. The designation building, as used in this risk assessment, includes all walled and roofed structures. The designations critical facilities and infrastructure include the following structures, as classified by HAZUS-MH: Critical Facilities Essential Facilities. These critical facilities are essential to the health and welfare of the entire Chambers County population and are particularly critical following hazard events. Emergency response facilities (police, fire, and emergency management), medical care facilities (hospitals and other care facilities), schools, and shelters for evacuation are all examples of essential facilities. High Potential Loss Facilities. These critical facilities include military installations, nuclear power plants, and dams. 57

68 Infrastructure Transportation Systems Lifeline. These facilities include highways, bridges, tunnels, heavy/light railways, airports, buses, ports, and waterways. Lifeline Utility Systems Lifeline. These facilities are essential lifelines that include potable water, wastewater, natural gas, oil, electric, and communications systems. Other User-Defined Facilities. The user may include additional facilities or systems unique to their study region which are not included in the general HAZUS-MH listing of critical facilities and infrastructure. Critical facilities and infrastructure have been apportioned to each jurisdiction on the basis of population distribution, as follows: Table 12. Population Distribution by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction 2010 Population % of Total Cusseta % Five Points % LaFayette 3, % Lanett 6, % Valley 9, % Waverly % Unincorporated 14, % Chambers County 34, % (Source: U.S. Census 2010) The plan projects future numbers of buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure to the year 2035 using the Alabama State Data Center s projection of Chambers County population growth. Since no projections existed for individual jurisdictions, the method described here was developed to provide a 2035 projected population for each jurisdiction. To project populations for each jurisdiction, the annual growth rate for each jurisdiction has been calculated based upon population growth between 1990 and In the case of the overall population of Chambers County, the Alabama State Data Center 2035 county estimate has been used, and the unincorporated area projection is that countywide population less the total of all municipal populations. The 2035 populations of Chambers County and its jurisdictions are used to compute growth multipliers. The growth multiplier is equal to 1 + the percentage increases for each jurisdiction. For example, if 1,000 residential buildings are presently exposed, then a 2035 Growth Multiplier of 1.35 (where a jurisdiction s population is projected to increase 35 58

69 percent) would project 1,350 residential buildings will be exposed in The Growth Multiplier is applied to all present day estimates to project future conditions. This growth projection method is not precise, but it does provide a good indication of how growth might affect future exposure of structures to hazards. Table Annual Growth Rates by Incorporated Jurisdiction Cusseta Five Points % -1.7% LaFayette 3,151 3, % -0.2% Lanett 8,985 6,468-2, % -1.6% Valley 8,215 9,524 +1, % +0.7% Waverly % -0.2% Source: U.S. Census 2010 Table Growth Projections and Multipliers Jurisdiction 2010 Projected 2035 Projected Change Percent Increase Growth Multiplier Cusseta % Five Points % LaFayette 3,003 2, % Lanett 6,468 4,289-2, % Valley 9,524 11,457 +1, % Waverly % Unincorporated 14,811 13,114-1, % Chambers County 34,215 35,475 +1, % Source: Derived from Alabama State Data Center 2035 Chambers County Projection and the 2010 Census 59

70 Table 15. Population Distribution by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction 2035 Population % of Total Cusseta % Five Points % LaFayette 2, % Lanett 4, % Valley 11, % Waverly % Unincorporated 13, % Chambers County 35, % Source: Based upon 2035 Chambers County Project by the Alabama State Data Center 3. HAZUS-MH Structure Inventory The percent exposure can be applied to the structure inventories to derive a general estimate of vulnerable structures by hazard. Most hazards are county-wide, but location-specific hazards flooding, wildfires, dam/levee failures, sinkholes and landslides can vary from minimal vulnerability to as much as 100% of a community s total geographic area. In cases where exposure is 1% or less, a 1% exposure rate has been applied. Although this does not yield a precise estimate, it provides a general indication of the number and types of structures exposed to each hazard within each jurisdiction. This data is shown in Table 16 below. 60

71 Cusseta Five Points LaFayette Lanett Valley Waverly Unincorporated Chambers County 2012 Chambers County THIRA Table 16. Hazard Exposure Rates by Jurisdiction Identified Hazard Severe Storms 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Tornadoes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Floods <1% <1% <1% 5% 5% <1% 2% 2% Droughts/Heat Wave 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Hurricanes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Winter Storms/Freezes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Dam/Levee Failures <1% <1% <1% <35% <10% <1% <1% <1% Wildfires 5% 10% 5% 2% 10% 5% 10% 5% Sinkholes <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% Earthquakes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Landslides <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% Technological/Human- Caused Hazards 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% General Description of the Planning Region HAZUS-MH refers to the geographic study area as the region, which is all of Chambers County, including all unincorporated areas and six municipalities. The descriptions provided here were generated by the HAZUS-MH Global Reports for county-wide assessments of hurricanes. The Chambers County region is generally described by HAZUS-MH, as follows: The geographical size of the region is square miles. The region contains 9 census tracts. There were over 14,000 households in the region, with a total population of 36,583 persons, according to the 2000 Census. 61

72 Table 17. HAZUS-MH Population State County Name 2000 Population Alabama Chambers 36,583 Building Inventory HAZUS-MH estimates that there are some 18,000 buildings in the region, which have an aggregate replacement value of $1.9 billion. In terms of building construction types found in the region, wood frame construction makes up 71% percent of the building inventory. Manufactured housing accounts for 17% of buildings, a considerable amount. Table 18. HAZUS-MH Building Inventory by Occupancy Occupancy Count Share Agriculture % Commercial % Education % Government % Industrial % Religion % Single Residential 11, % Other Residential 5, % Total 18, % Table 19. Building Values Building Value (millions of dollars) Residential Non-Residential Total $1,413 $544 $1,957 62

73 Table 20. HAZUS-MH Building Inventory by Construction Type Construction Type Count Share Wood 12, % Steel % Concrete % Precast % Reinforced Masonry % Unreinforced Masonry 1, % Manufactured Housing 3, % Total 18, % Critical Facilities Inventory HAZUS-MH breaks critical facilities into the two groups described below and estimates the number of each type of facility. Essential Facilities. This includes hospitals, medical clinics, schools, fire stations, police stations, and emergency operations facilities. HAZUS-MH estimates the numbers and types of essential facilities within the region, as follows: 1 hospital with a total bed capacity of 175 beds; 17 schools; 8 fire stations; 6 police stations; and 0 emergency operations facilities. High Potential Loss Facilities. This includes dams, levees, military installations, and nuclear power plants. HAZUS-MH estimates the numbers and types of high potential loss facilities, as follows: 47 dams, with three classified as high hazard; 0 military installations; and 0 nuclear power plants. Transportation and Utility Lifeline Inventories 63 HAZUS-MH breaks lifeline inventories into the two groups described below and estimates the number of each type of facility. HAZUS-MH estimates the total value of the lifeline

74 inventory at $1.1 billion. A more detailed breakdown is provided in Table 27 HAZUS-MH Transportation System Lifeline Inventory. Transportation Systems. This includes highways, railways, light rail, bus, ports, ferry and airports. HAZUS-MH estimates the length of highways and the number of bridges, as 103 miles (165 kilometers) of highways and 164 bridges. Utility Systems. This includes potable water, wastewater, natural gas, crude & refined oil, electric power and communications. HAZUS-MH estimates the length of pipes, as 2,696 miles (4,339 kilometers). 4. Existing and Future Structure Vulnerabilities Buildings The building exposure totals generated by HAZUS-MH are gross estimates that show relative vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes, hurricane winds, and flooding. The numbers provided in the HAZUS-MH reports are not based on actual field inventories, which is beyond the scope of this planning process. Many of the numbers provided by HAZUS-MH are generated from formulas based on national standards. Where values are given for future conditions, the values are in 2006 dollars. Building exposure in Chambers County is mostly residential at about 72.2 percent. This ratio should remain constant through the 2035 plan horizon, and occupancy ratios are assumed constant for the purposes of this analysis. Table 21. Building Exposure by Occupancy Occupancy Existing Exposure ($1,000) Future Exposure ($1,000) % of Total Agriculture $7,749 $9, % Commercial $260,062 $298, % Education $29,546 $ 31, % Government $12,189 $15, % Industrial $157,478 $164, % Religious $77,197 $89, % Residential $1,412,559 $1,662, % Total $1,956,780 $2,270, % 64

75 Building values within each jurisdiction are expected to increase according to (a) growth in Chambers County s population; and (b) the growth in each jurisdiction s share of the county population. Communities need to be cognizant of the increasing risks and exposure resulting from growth. Chambers County is projected to grow 3.7 percent from 2010 to 2035, with increases projected as high as 20.3 percent for Valley and declines as sharp as 35.4% for Five Points. Occupancy of buildings by jurisdiction is assumed to generally follow the county-wide distribution, and is projected to change according to each jurisdiction s growth multiplier. 65

76 Existing Residential Future Residential Existing Non- Residential Future Non- Residential Existing Total Future Total 2012 Chambers County THIRA Table 22. Building Values by Jurisdiction Building Value ($ 1,000 s) Jurisdiction Cusseta $5,078 $5,266 $1,956 $2,029 $7,034 $7,295 Five Points $5,821 $6,205 $2,243 $2,326 $8,064 $8,596 LaFayette $123,978 $116,743 $47,765 $49,533 $171,744 $161,720 Lanett $267,030 $177,062 $102,879 $106,686 $369,909 $245,279 Valley $393,196 $473,014 $151,488 $157,093 $544,684 $655,254 Waverly $5,986 $5,644 $2,306 $2,392 $8,293 $7,818 Unincorporated $611,469 $547,793 $235,583 $244,299 $847,052 $758,843 Chambers County $1,412,559 $1,464,578 $544,221 $564,357 $1,956,780 $2,028,840 Note: Totals of all municipalities and unincorporated areas may not equal Chambers County totals due to rounding. 66

77 Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future 2012 Chambers County THIRA Table 23. Building Count by Occupancy and Jurisdiction Building Count by Occupancy Jurisdiction Agric. Comm. Educ. Govt. Indus. Religion Single Family Other Resid. Cusseta Five Points LaFayette , Lanett ,26 6 1, Valley ,33 6 4,01 4 1,4 11 1,6 98 Waverly Unincorpora ted ,18 9 4,59 4 2,1 95 1,9 43 Chambers County , ,4 27 5,0 70 5,2 57 Note: Totals of all municipalities and unincorporated areas may not equal Chambers County totals due to rounding. 67

78 Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Existing Future Cusseta Five Points LaFayette Lanett Valley Waverly Unincorporated Chambers County 2012 Chambers County THIRA Table 24. Building Exposure by Jurisdiction and Hazard Building Exposure ($ millions) by Jurisdiction Identified Hazard Severe Storms ,957 2,029 Tornadoes ,957 2,029 Floods >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 > >0 > Droughts/Heat Wave ,957 2,029 Hurricanes ,957 2,029 Winter Storms/Freezes ,957 2,029 Dam/Levee Failures >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 > >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 Wildfires >0 > >0 > Sinkholes >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 Earthquakes >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 Landslides >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 >0 Technological/ Human-Caused Hazards ,957 2,029 Note: Totals of all municipalities and unincorporated areas may not equal Chambers County totals due to rounding. 68

79 Critical Facilities HAZUS-MH estimates there are nearly 76 critical facilities within Chambers County. As population increases, additional facilities will be added, amounting to approximately 79. Table 25. HAZUS-MH Essential Facilities Data Classification Existing Estimate Future Estimate Hospitals 1 (175 total bed capacity) 1 (182 bed capacity) Schools Emergency Ops. Centers 0 0 Police Stations 6 6 Fire Stations 8 8 Table 26. HAZUS-MH High Potential Loss Facilities Data Classification Existing Estimate Future Estimate Dams 47 (3 classified high hazard ) 49 (3 classified high hazard ) Hazard Materials Sites Military Installations 0 0 Nuclear Power Plants 0 0 Infrastructure Infrastructure inventories appear below. Infrastructure expansion is not directly related to population growth; consequently, no projections are given here. Most of the at-risk transportation system components are highway road segments and bridges, which are most vulnerable to flooding and hazardous materials spills. 69

80 Table 27. HAZUS-MH Transportation Systems Lifeline Inventory System Component # Locations/Segments Replacement Value ($ millions) Highway Bridges 164 $57.00 Segments 31 $ Tunnels 0 $0.00 Subtotal $ Railways Bridges 0 $0.00 Facilities 0 $0.00 Segments 17 $54.00 Tunnels 0 $0.00 Subtotal $54.00 Light Rail Bridges 0 $0.00 Facilities 0 $0.00 Segments 0 $0.00 Tunnels 0 $0.00 Subtotal $0.00 Bus Facilities 1 $1.00 Subtotal $1.00 Ferry Facilities 0 $0.00 Subtotal $0.00 Port Facilities 0 $0.00 Subtotal $0.00 Airport Facilities 1 $10.70 Runways 1 $38.00 Subtotal $48.60 Total $

81 The types of utilities most vulnerable to hazards are wastewater treatment plants, water treatment and distribution facilities, and electric power lines and substations. Hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, controls failures, and bioterrorism attacks pose the greatest threat to these facilities. Table 28. HAZUS-MH Utilities Systems Lifeline Inventory System Component # Locations / Segments Replacement value ($ millions) Potable Water Distribution Lines NA $43.40 Facilities 0 $0.00 Pipelines 0 $0.00 Subtotal $43.40 Waste Water Distribution Lines NA $26.00 Facilities 3 $ Pipelines 0 $0.00 Subtotal $ Natural Gas Distribution Lines NA $17.40 Facilities 0 $0.00 Pipelines 0 $0.00 Subtotal $17.40 Oil Systems Facilities 0 $0.00 Pipelines 0 $0.00 Subtotal $0.00 Electrical Power Facilities 0 $0.00 Subtotal $0.00 Communication Facilities 4 $0.40 Subtotal $0.40 Total $

82 Local Inventory of Critical Facilities and Infrastructure The following maps and tables show the locations of major critical facilities. Table 29. Government Facilities Type Name Address City Zip Govt Offices County Chambers County Admin 2 S Lafayette St Lafayette Govt Offices County Chambers County Dept-Human 6287 Fairfax Byp Valley Govt Offices County Chambers County Emergency Comm 3507 Veterans Memorial Pkwy Lanett County Govt-Public Health Programs Chambers County Health Dept 5 Medical Park Valley County Govt-Correctional Institutions Chambers County Jail 105 Alabama Ave W Lafayette Govt Offices County Chambers County Landfill 7245 Veterans Memorial Pkwy Lanett County Govt-Legal Counsel Chambers County Offices 18 Alabama Ave E Lafayette County Govt-Education Programs Chambers County School Bus Veterans Memorial Pkwy Lafayette County Govt-General Offices Chambers County Valley Annex nd Ave Valley Govt Offices County Chambers Registrar Office 4 1st St SE # 212 Lafayette Govt Offices County County Shop US Highway 431 Lafayette City Govt-Executive Offices Lafayette City Hall 50 Alabama Ave W Lafayette Govt Offices-City, Village & Twp Lafayette Electric Dept 291 4th Pl SE Lafayette Govt Offices-City, Village & Twp Lafayette Nutrition Ctr 312 4th Ave SE Lafayette Govt Offices-City, Village & Twp Lanett City Gym 401 S 7th St Lanett City Govt-Executive Offices Lanett City Hall 401 N Lanier Ave Lanett Federal Govt-Conservation Depts Federal Govt-Conservation Depts US Army Corps Of Engineers US Army Corps Of Engineers 1000 County Road 222 Lanett County Road 393 Lanett Federal Govt-National Security US Army National Guard Armory 6448 Fairax Byp Valley Federal Govt-Conservation Depts US Consolidated Farm Svc Agcy US Highway 431 Lafayette

83 Type Name Address City Zip Post Offices US Government 3200 County Road 83 Cusseta Post Offices US Post Office 1 1st St Lanett Post Offices US Post Office 1425 California Rd Valley Post Offices US Post Office 18 Alabama Ave W Lafayette Post Offices US Post Office US Highway 431 Five Points Post Offices US Post Office 30 Fob James Dr Valley City Govt-Executive Offices Valley City Hall 20 Fob James Dr Valley

84 Map 22. Government Facilities 74

85 Table 30. Public Safety Facilities Type Name Address City Zip Fire Departments Abanda Volunteer Fire Highway 77 Wadley E911-EMA Chambers County EMA/E Veterans Memorial Parkway Lanett Fire Departments Cusseta Volunteer Fire 4429 County Rd 299 Cusseta Fire Departments East Alabama Fire Station Fob James Dr Valley Fire Departments East Alabama Fire Station US Hwy 29 Valley Fire Departments Five Points Volunteer Fire US 431 N Five Points Fire Departments Fredonia Fire & Rescue VFD County Rd 267 Lanett Fire Departments Huguley Fire Station Veterans Memorial Parkway Lanett Fire Departments Huguley Fire Station County Rd 177 Cusseta Fire Departments Lafayette Fire Dept 56 2nd Ave SW Lafayette Police Departments Lafayette Police Dept 50 Alabama Ave W Lafayette Rescue Squads Lakeview Fire & Rescue 3181 County Rd 289 Lanett Fire Departments Lanett Fire & Rescue 401 N Lanier Ave Lanett Police Departments Lanett Police Dept 401 N Lanier Ave Lanett Fire Departments Lee Chamber Volunteer Fire 5350 Lee Road 270 Valley Fire Departments Mt. Olive Volunteer Fire 2209 County Rd 237 Roanoke Fire Departments Oak Bowery Fire & Rescue VFD 3306 Hwy 341 North Lafayette Fire Departments Ridge Grove Volunteer Fire 9104 County Road 48 Lafayette Fire Departments Standing Rock Volunteer Fire 3512 County Rd 278 Five Points Fire Departments Union Hill Volunteer Fire 8422 Hwy 77 Lafayette Fire Departments Valley Fire Dept 615 US Highway 29 Valley Police Departments Valley Police Dept 20 Fob James Dr Valley Rescue Squads Valley Rescue Squad Inc 1641 S Phillips Rd Lanett Fire Departments West Chambers Fire & Rescue Veterans Memorial Pkwy Lafayette

86 Map 23. Public Safety Facilities 76

87 Table 31. Chambers County Schools School Type Name Address City State Zipcode Private Acts Academy 316 Fob James Dr Valley AL Public- Chambers Co Bob Harding-Shawmut Elem Rd Dr Valley AL Private Chambers Academy US Highway 431 Lafayette AL Public- Chambers Co Chambers Co Career Tech Ctr 502 Area Vocational Center Dr SE Lafayette AL Public- Chambers Co Fairfax Elem School 502 Boulevard Valley AL Public- Chambers Co Five Points Elem School County Road 222 Five Points AL Public- Chambers Co Huguley Elem School 3011 Phillips Rd Lanett AL Public- Chambers Co John P Powell Middle School 621 1St St Se Lafayette AL Public- Chambers Co Lafayette Eastside Elem School 300 Ave A Se Lafayette AL Public- Chambers Co Lafayette High School 214 1St Ave Se Lafayette AL Public- Chambers Co Lafayette Lanier Elem School Th Ave Valley AL Public-Lanett City Lanett Central Elem School 200 S 8Th Ave Lanett AL Public-Lanett City Lanett Jr High School 1302 N Cherry Dr Lanett AL Public-Lanett City Lanett Senior High School 1301 S 8Th Ave Lanett AL Public- Chambers Co Plainview Headstart Veterans Memorial Pkwy Lafayette AL Public- Chambers Co Southern Union State Comm College 321 Fob James Dr Valley AL Private Springwood School 1814 Cherry Drive Lanett AL Private Temple Christian School Th Blvd Valley AL Private Valley Haven School 6345 Fairfax Bypass Valley AL Public- Chambers Co Valley High School 501 US Highway 29 Valley AL Public- Chambers Co W F Burns Middle School 292 Johnson St Valley AL

88 Map 24. Schools 78

89 Table 32. Chambers County Hospital and Elderly Care Facilities Type Name Address City Zip Hospices Chattahoochee Hospice Inc 6 Medical Park Valley Hospitals Lanier Health Svc th St Valley Nursing & Convalescent Homes Lafayette Extended Care Inc 805 Hospital St Lafayette Nursing & Convalescent Homes Lafayette Nursing Home 555 B St SW Lafayette Nursing & Convalescent Homes Lanett Geriatric Ctr 702 S 13th St Lanett Nursing & Convalescent Homes Lanier Nursing Home th St Valley Retirement Communities & Homes Sylvia Word Manor th St # 300 Valley

90 Map 25. Hospitals and Elderly Care Facilities. 80

91 Map 26. Transportation Infrastructure 81

92 Table 33. Dams Name Purpose Year Completed Hazard Class Riverside No 1 Recreation 1973 High Riverside No 2 Recreation 1973 High Chambers County Public Lake Recreation 1962 Low Edge Recreation; Fish & wildlife pond 1971 Low Lanier Recreation 1952 Low Allens Recreation 1970 Low Kilpatrick Recreation 1948 Low Hinkle Recreation 1954 Low Stephens Mill Recreation 1952 Significant Jeff Beard Recreation 1968 Low Robinson Recreation 1954 Significant J H Hines Recreation 1946 Low Flint Hill Recreation 1952 Low Dawson Day Recreation 1958 Low Nolen Recreation 1954 Significant Clay Floyd Recreation 1954 Low Simmons Recreation 1951 Low Wheeler Recreation 1946 Low W C Hines Recreation 1944 Low Sharpe No 2 Recreation 1952 Low Sharpe No 1 Recreation 1952 Low Slaughter Recreation 1971 Low Welch Recreation 1972 Low Royston Recreation 1972 Low Robinson Recreation 1952 Low 82

93 Name Purpose Year Completed Hazard Class Thompson Recreation 1950 Low Darden Recreation 1972 Low Stricklands Lake Dam Recreation 1946 Low Edgar Recreation 1951 Low Slay Recreation 1965 Low Phillips Recreation 1958 Low Smith Recreation 1953 Low Dempsey Flood Control 1977 Low Kendrick-Holmes Recreation 1974 Significant White Recreation 1950 Low Spencer Recreation 1953 Low Baker Recreation 1956 Low Cunningham Recreation 1957 Low Hudson Recreation 1950 Low Langley Recreation 1950 Significant Brown Recreation 1964 Low Taunton Recreation 1950 Low Montgomery Recreation 1950 Low Timmons Recreation 1953 Low High Pine Creek Site 12 Flood Control 1962 Low High Pine Water Shed Dam Flood Control 1962 Low LaFayette City Lake Water Supply 1955 High 83

94 Map 27. Dams 84

95 G. Estimate of Dollar Losses to Vulnerable Structures 1. Scope and Purpose of Loss Estimates This section provides estimates of damages to vulnerable structures identified above in Section F. Lost estimates are calculated using the structure, contents, and function of each asset. The following definitions are used: Structure loss (% damage) X ($ replacement value of the structure) Content loss (% damage) X ($ replacement value of the contents) Functional Loss - indirect effects of the hazard, such as the days of interruptions in operations that an asset incurs during an event. For hazards with damage records, loss estimates count damages from the most probable severity. For location-specific events, loss estimates evaluate the affected parts of each jurisdiction. Although these estimates are broad, they can be useful in roughly assessing the benefits and costs of a proposed mitigation project. Moreover, these estimates provide a basis for selecting and prioritizing actions recommended by the Mitigation Strategies in the 2011 Chambers County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (Chapter 6). This section also describes methodology and highlights limitations of insufficient data and lack of reliable methods. Measures for compiling and analyzing data to improve risk assessment studies appear in Section G.5 Recommended Risk Assessment Measures. As explained above, most hazards are county-wide. In the case of county-wide hazards, exposure is distributed uniformly over all municipalities and unincorporated areas. Countywide hazards include tornadoes, severe storms, winter storms/freezes, droughts/heat waves, wildfires, earthquakes, and technological/human-caused hazards. In contrast, exposure to location-specific hazards including flooding, dam/levee failures, sinkholes and landslides varies widely among jurisdictions. 2. Loss Estimate Methodology Method 1: HAZUS-MH Loss Estimates This plan estimates losses using HAZUS-MH, which was used as a basis for the vulnerable structures inventory of Section F. HAZUS-MH uses approximations and algorithms to estimate losses, so results do not reflect actual losses with certainty. These loss estimates are most useful for judging a hazard s risk relative to other hazards and the vulnerability of a structure relative to other structures, rather than as absolute measures of likelihood and economic appraisal. These 2011 HAZUS-MH loss estimates are updates of estimates included in the 2006 plan. 85 HAZUS-MH offers three levels of analysis. Level 1 requires the least amount of local data and is sufficient for mitigation policy planning purposes. A Level 1 analysis relies on the national data set provided with HAZUS-MH. The analysis provides general loss estimates for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane winds. All loss estimates are at a county level, which is the smallest geographic area of meaningful analysis using HAZUS-MH.

96 Method 2: Estimates Based upon Historical Records Data and records from Section D supplemented the HAZUS-MH data to prepare loss estimates. Damage data and records of previous occurrences were obtained from the following primary sources: NFIP insurance claims data since 1978 (see Section D); NOAA, National Climatic Data Center damage estimates (see damage summaries in Section D Natural Hazard Profiles and Appendix D Hazard Profile Data. National Weather Service Alabama Tornado database. Alabama State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2010 update, Section F Vulnerability Assessment and Loss Estimation. Method 3: Jurisdictional Estimates To derive jurisdictional estimates, the planning team used existing (2010) and future (2035) population estimates to distribute losses among Chambers County s seven jurisdictions. Population distribution appears in Table 34 below. The damage estimates in this section, however, only apply to existing conditions. Table 34. Population Distribution by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction 2010 % of 2010 Projected 2035 % of 2035 Projection Cusseta % % Five Points % % LaFayette 3, % 2, % Lanett 6, % 4, % Valley 9, % 11, % Waverly % % Unincorporated* 14, % 13, % Chambers County 34, % 35, % 3. HAZUS-MH Loss Estimates The planning team performed HAZUS-MH Hurricane studies to estimate losses. Global Summary and Quick Assessment Reports of the HAZUS-MH runs contain detailed results. These studies, maps, and reports were prepared by a qualified GIS professional with advanced HAZUS training classes completed at the FEMA Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, Maryland, and extensive experience in its local application to 86

97 mitigation planning. The following HAZUS-MH reports are on file with the Chambers County EMA and available for public review: HAZUS-MH Probabilistic 100-Year Hurricane Report, dated August 8, 2011 HAZUS-MH 100-Year Flood Event Global Report, dated June 22, 2011 HAZUS-MH 500-Year Flood Event Global Report, dated July 27, 2011 HAZUS-MH 500-Year/5.00 Magnitude Earthquake Event Global Report, dated August 08, 2011 Flood Loss Estimates The planning team used HAZUS-MH to assess 100-year and 500-year flood event scenarios. The following table itemizes the overall Quick Assessment results for the 100-year flood event: Table 35. HAZUS-MH Flood Module Quick Assessment Results Chambers County 100 Year Flood Event Area (Square Miles) 597 Number of Residential Buildings 17,056 Number of All Buildings 18,208 Number of Persons in the Region 37,000 Residential Building Exposure ($ millions) $1,413 Total Building Exposure ($ millions) $1,957 Displaced Population (# of households) Short Term Shelter Requirements (# of people) Residential Property (Capital Stock) Losses ($ millions) $11.93 Total Property (Capital Stock) Losses ($ millions) $19.57 Business Interruptions (Income) Losses ($ millions) $0.23 Total Economic Losses ($ millions) $

98 Economic Losses by Jurisdiction. The following table shows jurisdictional loss estimates, which were obtained by dividing the county s total losses by each jurisdiction s share of the 2010 county population. Table 36. Total Economic Losses by Jurisdiction Jurisdiction Share of Losses Total Economic Losses ($ millions) Cusseta 0.36% $0.11 Five Points 0.41% $0.13 LaFayette 8.78% $2.79 Lanett 18.90% $6.00 Valley 27.84% $8.83 Waverly 0.42% $0.13 Unincorporated* 43.29% $13.74 Chambers County % $31.73 Building-Related Damages. HAZUS estimates that a 100-year flood event would moderately damage 65 buildings over 32 percent of the total number of buildings at risk of flooding in Chambers County. The event would destroy four buildings. The following tables show the detailed results, and GIS maps illustrate the HAZUS-generated damages due to flooding. Table 37. Expected Building Damage by Occupancy 88

99 Table 38. Expected Building Damage by Building Type Essential Facilities Damages. HAZUS predicts that a 100-year flood event would moderately damage one police station among an estimated 32 essential facilities (police stations, fire stations, hospitals, and schools) in Chambers County. Building Related Losses. Building losses are broken into two categories by HAZUS: direct building losses and business interruption losses. Direct building losses include estimated costs to repair or replace damaged buildings and contents. Business interruption losses are losses associated with the inability to operate a business as a result of the flood and also include temporary living expenses for displaced households. The total losses are estimated at $19.57 million, with 1% related to business interruption. Residential occupancies account for 60.04% of the total loss. Table 39. Building Related Economic Loss Estimates ($ millions) 89

100 Map 28. HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimate, 100 Year Event 90

101 Map 29. HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimate, 500 Year Event 91

102 Hurricane Loss Estimates The planning team used HAZUS-MH to assess a 100-year hurricane event scenario. HAZUS only assesses the hurricane wind effects of each event. The following tables show the loss estimates generated by HAZUS-MH, followed by Map 30, which show the geographic distribution of economic losses for a 100-year event, and Map 31, which is for a 500-year event. 92

103 Table 40. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Scenarios Table 41. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Scenarios 93

104 Map 30. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Loss Estimate, 100 Year Event 94

105 Map 31. HAZUS-MH Hurricane Loss Estimate, 500 Year Event 95

106 Earthquake Loss Estimates The planning team used HAZUS-MH to estimate the losses of a 100-year earthquake event. Results indicate only minimal damage: only 0.4% of all buildings (estimated 77 buildings) would be moderately damaged. HAZUS-MH predicts no damage to essential facilities such as hospitals, schools, EOCs, Police and Fire Stations although 7 percent of hospital beds would be unavailable immediately after the event, with all but 2 percent in service one week later and 100 percent of beds operational after 30 days. Additionally, the event report predicts that all components of the transportation system will maintain at least 50 percent functionality, because no component will suffer damage. Likewise, HAZUS predicts no disabling damage to the utility infrastructure but rather only a handful of leaks and breaks in water and gas lines. Therefore, the model projects no interruption of water or electrical service. No casualties are expected, and total building-related economic losses (structural, contents, inventory, income and wages, etc.) are estimated at $1.82 million countywide, 37% of which can be attributed to business interruption losses. Likewise, estimated damage to transportation, utilities, and communications systems is minimal. 96

107 Map 32. HAZUS-MH Earthquake Loss Estimate, 100 Year Event 97

108 Map 33. HAZUS-MH Earthquake Loss Estimate, 500 Year Event 98

109 4. Loss Estimates Based on Historical Records Severe Storms Loss Estimates As reported in the severe storms hazard profile of the Hazard Mitigation Plan, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) records show frequent annual severe storm occurrences since The database shows 138 severe storm events for Chambers County roughly three per year. The database also shows almost $1.1 million in damages since Tornado Loss Estimates According to the NCDC and National Weather Service (NWS) records (see Section F Tornadoes Profile ), Chambers County has been the site of 12 tornadoes since 1970, averaging over 0.3 annually. These tornadoes caused 14 injuries and property damages of nearly $3.5 million. Flood Loss Estimates The NCDC Storm Events Database shows frequent flooding since There have been 13 floods reported for Chambers County 0.9 per year for the period. It is unfeasible to estimate the average annual damages, as nearly all damages are attributable to the May 7, 2003 flooding of the Chattahoochee River, which affected 900 industries, businesses, and homes in Chambers County. Hazardous Materials Spills Estimates The Alabama Department of Transportation reports hazardous materials spills occurring along major roadways in Chambers County. From , 13 hazardous materials spills have occurred in Chambers County. Total damages from these events exceeded $90,000. There have been no recorded past occurrences of hazardous materials spills at fixedlocations. Loss Estimates for Remaining Hazards Historical data is not available to estimate losses from the remaining hazards identified in this document. In some cases, there have been no recorded events, such as dam/levee failures, control failures, airplane crashes, urban fires/explosions, school violence, cyber attacks and bioterrorism attacks. In other cases, no damages resulted from an event, as is the case for instances of earthquakes, landslides, sinkholes, and pandemic/disease outbreaks. 5. Recommended Risk Assessment Measures Mitigation strategies include both short term and long term measures to improve the completeness and reliability of loss estimates. The measures should carry out the following general objectives: Critical Facilities Assessments. Assess critical facilities (hospitals, schools, fire and police stations, special needs housing, and others) to address building and site vulnerabilities to hazards, identify damage control and retrofit measures to reduce vulnerability to damage and disruption of operations during severe weather and disaster events. 99

110 Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Maintain a comprehensive database of hazard locations, socio-economic data, infrastructure, and critical facilities inventories. Planning Studies. Conduct special plans and studies, as needed, to identify hazard risks and develop mitigation projects. H. General Description of Land Uses and Development Trends 1. Impacts of Development Trends on Vulnerability Development trends demand consideration in any plan for hazard mitigation. This section examines development trends affecting vulnerability to natural hazards. Development can raise vulnerability in several ways, including: Competing uses for land can push new development into areas prone to flooding, landslides and other location-specific hazards. New roads, parking lots, and other impervious surfaces can increase urban runoff and thereby exacerbate flooding. New residential, commercial and industrial development in previously rural areas can boost the community s vulnerability to wildfires. Increased population can stretch scarce water resources in times of drought. Development on slopes and geologically unstable terrain can increase exposure to and even cause sinkholes and landslides. 2. Past Trends Growth in Chambers County has declined over the past twenty years, contrasting the growth rate for the State of Alabama. Between 1990 and 2000, Chambers County s population declined slightly, falling by 0.8 percent, while Alabama s population grew by 10.1 percent. In the following decade, Chambers County s population decreased even further by 6.5 percent, while Alabama s population gained 7.5%. Table 42 depicts population growth trends from 1990 to

111 Table 42. Chambers County Historic Growth Trends Jurisdiction Number Change Percent Change 2010 Number Change Percent Change Alabama 4,040,389 4,447, , % 4,779, , % Chambers County 36,876 36, % 34,215-2, % Cusseta Five Points % % LaFayette 3,151 3, % 3, % Lanett 8,985 7,897-1, % 6,468-1, % Valley 8,215 9, % 9, % Waverly % % *No data was provided for Cusseta, because it was not incorporated until 2010 Source: US Census Distribution of Growth within Chambers County With a 2010 population of 9,524, the City of Valley is the largest city in Chambers County, and roughly a third of Chambers County s population resides within its borders. Between 1990 and 2000, Valley grew by 12 percent, the population continued to grow over the past decade with 326 new residents or 3.5 percent. The population of the unincorporated areas of Chambers County decreased by 1,113 residents over the last decade. Northwestern Chambers County, part of the unincorporated area, is home to the densest population concentration. Map 34 shows population density (persons per square mile) for Chambers County in Map 35 shows population change by census block group. 101

112 Map 34. Population Density in Chambers County 102

113 Map 35. Population Density 103

114 4. Land Use Chambers County is comprised of mainly agricultural and forest land. Residential areas are primarily within the incorporated jurisdictions and the census designated place, Huguley. The major population center is in the northwestern corner of Chambers County in the unincorporated area to the west of Five Points, bordering Randolph and Tallapoosa Counties. The second densest area of Chambers County is on the west side of the county, to the west of Lafayette. This area is comprised mainly of unincorporated land and the city limits of Waverly. The land cover shown in Map 36 provides further information about development patterns in Chambers County. Development in Chambers County is highly concentrated around the Cities of Lanett and Valley. The west central area of the county is primarily uncultivated pasture land, while the land in the surrounding areas is deciduous and evergreen forest. Very little of Chambers County s land is in use as cultivated farmland. 104

115 Map 36. Land Cover in Chambers County 105

116 5. Future Trends Table 43 presents projected growth in Chambers County between 2010 and 2035 according to projections compiled by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama. Chambers County s population growth is expected to remain lowerthan-average for Alabama counties: the CBER projects a four percent reduction for Chambers County and 19.0 percent growth for the State of Alabama. Table 43. Population and Projections Population Estimate/Projection Change a 2005 a 2010 a 2015 b 2025 b 2035 b Number Percent Alabama 4,447,100 4,537,299 4,779,736 4,974,386 5,362,974 5,689,407 9,909, % Chambers 36,583 35,136 34,215 34,708 35,136 35,475 1, % a US Census Bureau Census b Center for Business and Economic Research, U. of Alabama These projections are based on statistical inferences from historical data. The projections do not account for recent economic development in Chambers County. Faster-than-expected economic development particularly in the Greater Valley Area s expanding manufacturing sector could induce swifter population growth. Table 44. Population Projections by Jurisdiction 2010 Projected 2035 Projected Change Percent Increase % of Total 2035 Cusseta % 0.4% Five Points % 0.3% Lafayette 3,003 2, % 8.0% Lanett 6,468 4,289-2, % 12.1% Valley 9,524 11,457 +1, % 32.3% Waverly % 0.4% Unincorporated 14,811 13,114-1, % 37.0% Chambers County 34,215 35,475 +1, % 100.0% Source: Derived from Alabama State Data Center 2035 Chambers County Projection and the 2010 Census 106

117 Chart 3. Projected Population Changes Unicorporated Waverly Valley 9,524 11,457 Lanett LaFayette 2,828 3,003 Five Points Cusseta Economic Development Prospects Chambers County s most promising economic development prospects center on the automobile industry. From 1990 to the present, Alabama has witnessed a small industrial renaissance, as automakers such as Mercedes, Hyundai, and Toyota have located plants in Alabama. The automotive industry has grown faster in Alabama than in any other state in North America. In 2009, the South Korean automaker Kia Motors located the company s first North America manufacturing facility in West Point, Georgia, which is contiguous to Lanett. Kia Motors Manufacturing Georgia (KMMG) is expected to employ 2,500 employees once at full capacity and be able to produce 300,000 vehicles annually. Currently KMMG employs over 2,000 employees and the supporting suppliers have created over 5,200 jobs. Recently one of the on-site suppliers, Glovis Georgia LLC, signed a long-term lease on a 262,000 square foot building for its expansion in Valley, Alabama. Four Tier 1 suppliers have chosen Chambers County for their new facilities to supply Kia Motors. The four suppliers are AJIN USA, MP TECH America, Daedong Hi-Lex of America, and Daeki America. MP TECH is located in the Chambers County Industrial Park, 107

118 which is starting to expand and grow, and Daedong Hi-Lex America is located in the Cusseta Industrial Park. The tract of land of 26 acres bordering the Chambers County Industrial Park was chosen as an AdvantageSite. This designation means the track of land met certain federal standards of infrastructure, planning, zoning, environmental efficiency and accessibility; making this area a highly desirable location. I. Repetitively Damaged NFIP-Insured Structures FEMA defines repetitive loss property as properties that have two or more losses of at least $1,000 and have been paid under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) within any 10-year period. According to the State NFIP Coordinator, Chambers County and its municipalities have a total of one repetitively damaged property. This property is a residential dwelling. Table 45 describes the number of policies in force and shows the repetitive loss property located in Valley. Table 45. NFIP Policies and Repetitive Loss Claims Community Name Total NFIP Policies Repetitive Loss Structures Total RL Claims Total RL Losses Total Insurance in Force Unincorporated $0 $5,824,400 Five Points $0 LaFayette $0 $623,400 Lanett $0 $4,717,500 Valley $25,150 $140,000 Waverly $0 $0 Total for Chambers County $25,150 $11,305,300 Source: NFIP State Coordinator 07/06/2011 J. Summary of Hazards and Community Impacts Table 46 summarizes each jurisdiction s vulnerability. Community impacts include the following descriptions and measurements: Location. Location measures the geographic extent of the identified hazard in one of three ways, as follows: Community-wide - the entire geographic area is affected; Partial - a significant portion of the community is affected; or Minimal - a negligible area is affected. Probability. Probability measures the likelihood of the hazard occurring within the community, based on historical incidence. The scale for frequency runs as follows: Very high - annually; 108

119 High - every two to three years; Moderate - every three to ten years; Low - every ten years; or Very low - rare. Extent. Extent measures the severity of the hazard and its potential to cause casualties, business losses, and damage to structures. The scale utilized runs as follows: Devastating - the potential for devastating casualties, business losses, and structure damage; Significant - the potential for some casualties and significant, but less than devastating, business losses and structure damage; Moderate moderate potential for economic losses and structure damage; or Slight slight or minimal potential for economic losses and structure damage. Exposure. Exposure measures the percentage of structures within the community, including buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure lifelines, that are exposed to the hazard. The classifications are defined as follows: High - includes more than approximately 25 percent of the structures; Moderate - includes 10 percent to 25 percent of the structures; or Low - includes less than 10 percent of the structures. Damage Potential. Damage potential measures the damage that can be expected should an event take place. The classifications are defined as follows: High - a hazard could damage more than 5 percent of the structures in a community; Moderate - a hazard could damage between 1 and 5 percent of the structures in a community; or Low - a hazard could damage fewer than 1 percent of the structures in a community. 109

120 Table 46. Summary of Hazards and Community Impacts Hazard Jurisdiction Community Impacts Impacts on Vulnerable Community Buildings, Critical Facilities, and Infrastructure Location Probability Extent Exposure Damage Potential Cusseta Community -wide Very High Moderate High Low Five Points Community -wide Very High Moderate High Low LaFayette Community -wide Very High Moderate High Low Severe Storms Lanett Valley Community -wide Community -wide Very High Very High Moderate Moderate High High Low Low Waverly Community -wide Very High Moderate High Low Unincorporated Community -wide Very High Moderate High Low Chambers County Community -wide Very High Moderate High Low Cusseta Community -wide Moderate Significant High High Five Points Community -wide Moderate Significant High High LaFayette Community -wide Moderate Significant High High Tornadoes Lanett Valley Community -wide Community -wide Moderate Moderate Significant Significant High High High High Waverly Community -wide Moderate Significant High High Unincorporated Community -wide Moderate Significant High High Chambers County Community -wide Moderate Significant High High 110

121 Hazard Jurisdiction Community Impacts Impacts on Vulnerable Community Buildings, Critical Facilities, and Infrastructure Location Probability Extent Exposure Damage Potential Cusseta Community -wide Low Moderate High Low Five Points Community -wide Low Moderate High Low LaFayette Community -wide Low Moderate High Low Winter Storms/ Freezes Lanett Valley Community -wide Community -wide Low Low Moderate Moderate High High Low Low Waverly Community -wide Low Moderate High Low Unincorporated Community -wide Low Moderate High Low Chambers County Community -wide Low Moderate High Low Cusseta Community -wide High Moderate High Low Five Points Community -wide High Moderate High Low LaFayette Community -wide High Moderate High Low Drought/ Heat Waves Lanett Valley Community -wide Community -wide High Moderate High High Moderate High Low Low Waverly Community -wide High Moderate High Low Unincorporated Community -wide High Moderate High Low Chambers County Community -wide High Moderate High Low 111

122 Hazard Jurisdiction Community Impacts Impacts on Vulnerable Community Buildings, Critical Facilities, and Infrastructure Location Probability Extent Exposure Damage Potential Cusseta Community -wide Moderate Significant High Low Five Points Community -wide Moderate Significant High Low LaFayette Community -wide Moderate Significant High Low Hurricanes Lanett Valley Community -wide Community -wide Moderate Moderate Significant Significant High High Low Low Waverly Community -wide Moderate Significant High Low Unincorporated Community -wide Moderate Significant High Low Chambers County Community -wide Moderate Significant High Low Cusseta Minimal Low Slight Low Low Five Points Minimal Low Slight Low Low LaFayette Minimal Low Slight Low Low Floods Lanett Partial Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Valley Partial Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Waverly Minimal Low Slight Low Low Unincorporated Partial Moderate Moderate Low Medium Chambers County Partial Moderate Moderate Low Low 112

123 Hazard Jurisdiction Community Impacts Impacts on Vulnerable Community Buildings, Critical Facilities, and Infrastructure Location Probability Extent Exposure Damage Potential Cusseta Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Five Points Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low LaFayette Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Dam/ Levee Failures Lanett Partial Very Low Significant Moderate High Valley Partial Very Low Significant Moderate High Waverly Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Unincorporated Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Chambers County Minimal Very Low Moderate Low Moderate Cusseta Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Five Points Partial Moderate Slight Low Low LaFayette Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Wildfires Lanett Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Valley Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Waverly Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Unincorporated Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Chambers County Partial Moderate Slight Low Low Cusseta Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Five Points Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low LaFayette Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Sinkholes (Land Subsidence) Lanett Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Valley Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Waverly Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Unincorporated Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Chambers County Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low 113

124 Hazard Jurisdiction Community Impacts Impacts on Vulnerable Community Buildings, Critical Facilities, and Infrastructure Location Probability Extent Exposure Damage Potential Cusseta Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Five Points Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low LaFayette Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Earthquakes Lanett Valley Community -wide Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Very Low Slight High Low Waverly Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Unincorporated Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Cusseta Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Five Points Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low LaFayette Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Landslides Lanett Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Valley Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Waverly Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Unincorporated Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Chambers County Minimal Very Low Slight Low Low Hazardous Materials Spills (transportationrelated) Hazardous Materials Spills (fixed-location) All municipalities and Chambers County All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Community -wide Moderate Significant High Moderate Very Low Devastating High Moderate 114

125 Hazard Jurisdiction Community Impacts Impacts on Vulnerable Community Buildings, Critical Facilities, and Infrastructure Location Probability Extent Exposure Damage Potential Pandemic/ Disease Outbreak All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Low Devastating High Low Control Failures All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Significant High Moderate Airplane Crashes All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Devastating High High Urban Fires/Explosions All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Significant High High School Violence All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Slight High Low Cyber Attacks All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Moderate High Low Bioterrorism Attacks All municipalities and Chambers County Community -wide Very Low Devastating High High K. Varying Risks Among Jurisdictions The THIRA has strongly emphasized the variations in risks among jurisdictions. In particular, the following sections contain specific references to jurisdictional variations: Hazard Identification. Each jurisdiction was independently assessed to identify pertinent hazards, based on the sources noted in Section A Identification of Hazards Affecting Each Jurisdiction. Hazard Profiles. Each of the hazard profiles in Section D notes how the location, extent, past occurrences, and probability of future events may vary among all jurisdictions. Maps are included, where possible, to emphasize the locations of hazards in relation to jurisdictional limits. Summary of Community Impacts. Table 46 Summary of Hazards and Community Impacts summarizes how hazards impact each jurisdiction. Risk may vary among jurisdictions, as described in Table 47 Jurisdictional Risk Variations. This table presents an overview of the common and unique risks within each jurisdiction and the unique characteristics of those risks. The risk variations table uses the following terms, as defined here: 115

126 Variation of Risks. Measures whether a risk is common or unique, as follows: Common risk - affects all areas equally; or Unique risk - affects certain jurisdictions with varying probability and extent. Location. Indicates whether a hazard s impact varies within the community, as follows:. Specific locations - the hazard only threatens particular parts of the jurisdiction; or Not unique - the hazard affects all parts of the jurisdiction. Probability. Probability measures the likelihood of the hazard occurring within the community, based on historical incidence. The scale for frequency runs as follows: Very high - annually; High - every two to three years; Moderate - every three to ten years; Low - every ten years; or Very low - rare. Extent. Extent measures the severity of the hazard and its potential to cause casualties, business losses, and damage to structures. The scale utilized runs as follows: Devastating - the potential for devastating casualties, business losses, and structure damage; Significant - the potential for some casualties and significant, but less than devastating, business losses and structure damage; Moderate moderate potential for economic losses and structure damage; or Slight slight or minimal potential for economic losses and structure damage. 116

127 Table 47. Jurisdictional Risk Variations Hazard Variation of Risks Jurisdiction Hazard's Unique Risk Characteristics Location Probability Extent Severe Storms Tornadoes Winter Storms/Freezes Common Risks Common Risks Common Risks Cusseta Not Unique Very High Moderate Five Points Not Unique Very High Moderate LaFayette Not Unique Very High Moderate Lanett Not Unique Very High Moderate Valley Not Unique Very High Moderate Waverly Not Unique Very High Moderate Unincorporated Not Unique Very High Moderate Chambers County Not Unique Very High Moderate Cusseta Not Unique Moderate Significant Five Points Not Unique Moderate Significant LaFayette Not Unique Moderate Significant Lanett Not Unique Moderate Significant Valley Not Unique Moderate Significant Waverly Not Unique Moderate Significant Unincorporated Not Unique Moderate Significant Chambers County Not Unique Moderate Significant Cusseta Not Unique Low Moderate Five Points Not Unique Low Moderate LaFayette Not Unique Low Moderate Lanett Not Unique Low Moderate Valley Not Unique Low Moderate Waverly Not Unique Low Moderate Unincorporated Not Unique Low Moderate Chambers County Not Unique Low Moderate 117

128 Hazard Variation of Risks Jurisdiction Hazard's Unique Risk Characteristics Location Probability Extent Drought/Heat Waves Hurricanes Floods Common Risks Common Risks Unique Risks Cusseta Not Unique High Moderate Five Points Not Unique High Moderate LaFayette Not Unique High Moderate Lanett Not Unique High Moderate Valley Not Unique High Moderate Waverly Not Unique High Moderate Unincorporated Not Unique High Moderate Chambers County Not Unique High Moderate Cusseta Not Unique Moderate Significant Five Points Not Unique Moderate Significant LaFayette Not Unique Moderate Significant Lanett Not Unique Moderate Significant Valley Not Unique Moderate Significant Waverly Not Unique Moderate Significant Unincorporated Not Unique Moderate Significant Chambers County Not Unique Moderate Significant Cusseta Specific Locations Low Slight Five Points Specific Locations Low Slight LaFayette Specific Locations Low Slight Lanett Specific Locations Moderate Moderate Valley Specific Locations Moderate Moderate Waverly Specific Locations Low Slight Unincorporated Specific Locations Moderate Moderate Chambers County Specific Locations Moderate Moderate 118

129 Hazard Variation of Risks Jurisdiction Hazard's Unique Risk Characteristics Location Probability Extent Dam/Levee Failures Wildfires Sinkholes (Land Subsidence) Unique Risks Unique Risks Unique Risks Cusseta Minimal Very Low Slight Five Points Minimal Very Low Slight LaFayette Specific Locations Very Low Slight Lanett Specific Locations Very Low Significant Valley Specific Locations Very Low Significant Waverly Minimal Very Low Slight Unincorporated Specific Locations Very Low Slight Chambers County Specific Locations Very Low Moderate Cusseta Specific Locations Moderate Slight Five Points Specific Locations Moderate Slight LaFayette Specific Locations Moderate Slight Lanett Specific Locations Moderate Slight Valley Specific Locations Moderate Slight Waverly Specific Locations Moderate Slight Unincorporated Specific Locations Moderate Slight Chambers County Specific Locations Moderate Slight Cusseta Specific Locations Very Low Slight Five Points Specific Locations Very Low Slight LaFayette Specific Locations Very Low Slight Lanett Specific Locations Very Low Slight Valley Specific Locations Very Low Slight Waverly Specific Locations Very Low Slight Unincorporated Specific Locations Very Low Slight Chambers County Specific Locations Very Low Slight 119

130 Hazard Variation of Risks Jurisdiction Hazard's Unique Risk Characteristics Location Probability Extent Earthquakes Landslides Common Risks Unique Risks Cusseta Not Unique Very Low Slight Five Points Not Unique Very Low Slight LaFayette Not Unique Very Low Slight Lanett Not Unique Very Low Slight Valley Not Unique Very Low Slight Waverly Not Unique Very Low Slight Unincorporated Not Unique Very Low Slight Chambers County Not Unique Very Low Slight Cusseta Specific Locations Very Low Slight Five Points Specific Locations Very Low Slight LaFayette Specific Locations Very Low Slight Lanett Specific Locations Very Low Slight Valley Specific Locations Very Low Slight Waverly Specific Locations Very Low Slight Unincorporated Specific Locations Very Low Slight Chambers County Specific Locations Very Low Slight There are no jurisdictional risk variations for technological/human-caused hazards. All of Chambers County could potentially be impacted by these types of hazards, equally. 120

131 IV. Closing The Threat and Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) provides a foundation for which localities and emergency management officials can understand the natural and technological/human-caused hazards a community faces. Officials can make informed decisions regarding the distribution of resources, monetary or otherwise, using this material. The THIRA also meets the federal requirements with respect to applying for funding. 121

132 Chambers County THIRA

133 Appendix A Meeting Documentation 2012 Chambers County THIRA

134

135 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA App. A - Meeting Documentation 1.0 Background 2.0 LEPC Meeting 3.0 Public Meeting 1.0 Background The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) and Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) w ere instrumental in guiding the development of the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA). The HMPC w as established to oversee the development of the hazard mitigation plan, covering the natural hazards. The LEPC w as organized to identify, rate, and assess the technological/human-caused hazards. Both committees provided opportunities for direct involvement by participating jurisdictions and interested organizations and agencies in the planning process. The HMPC convened regularly throughout the drafting phase of the 2011 Chambers County Hazard Mitigation Plan and the LEPC convened during the development of the 2012 THIRA. All meetings w ere open to public participation. This appendix documents the LEPC meeting activities during the drafting of the THIRA, including the meeting agendas and sign-in sheets. In addition to the meetings, a w eb site w as created to provide information on the update of the Chambers County Emergency Operations Plan and the development of the THIRA. The site (chambers.hazmitalabama.com) provides information on the EOP and THIRA, as w ell as a means for contacting the project team, if necessary. 2.0 LEPC Meeting The Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) met on June 21, 2012 at the Chambers County EMA. The LEPC discussed the changes that w ere going to be made to the EOP, the requirements for the THIRA, and identified/rated technological/human-caused hazards for A-1

136 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Chambers County. They participated in three exercises: 1) Identify technological/humancaused hazards; 2) Rate the hazards; and 3) Profile hazards. These exercises provided the basis for assessing the probability, location, and extent of technological/human-caused hazards in Chambers County. The follow ing portrays the LEPC meeting agenda and sign-in sheet. A-2

137 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Emergency Operations Plan Update/ Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment LEPC Meeting Chambers County EMA June 21, Call to Order 2. Welcome and Opening Remarks 3. Overview of EOP Update 4. THIRA Requirements 5. Exercise 1: Identify Technological/Human-Caused Hazards 6. Exercise 2: Rate Hazards 7. Exercise 3: Profile Hazards 8. Next Steps 9. Adjourn A-3

138 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA A-4

139 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA 3.0 Public Meeting A public meeting w as held on October 11, 2012 at 1:30 EST. [Include documentation of public meeting here] It w as advertised The follow ing materials include the meeting agenda and sign-in sheet. A-5

140 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA A-1

141 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Appendix B Identified Hazards

142 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA

143 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA App. B Identified Hazards 4.0 Scope and Methodology 5.0 Hazard Descriptions 1.0 Scope and Methodology 1.1 The HMPC Hazard Identification Exercises The tables in this Appendix show the results of the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC) responses to hazard identification exercises presented at its December 16, 2010, committee meeting (for natural hazards). These results are not necessarily supported by other resources evaluated in the Risk Assessment, but are, nonetheless, indicators of the location, probability, and extent of natural hazards affecting Chambers County jurisdictions. These responses are those perceived by the HMPC membership, based on local know ledge and experience of the members. These exercises serve as a resource to help identify the hazards affecting each jurisdiction and determine the probability and extents (severity or magnitude) and how these measures of community impacts vary among Chambers County jurisdictions. The averages of the ratings compare how the location and impacts of hazards could vary among the jurisdictions. The same exercise w as administered during the drafting of the 2006 plan for natural hazards, and the results are compared. The 2011 and 2006 results are very similar, on average. Key. The follow ing key to the tables describes the hazard ratings: LOCATION - WHETHER THE JURISDICTION IS AFFECTED BY THE HAZARD 1 = YES 0 = NO B-1

144 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA PROBABILITY - THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE HAZARD WOULD OCCUR IN THIS JURSIDICTION 5 - VERY HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - MEDIUM 2 - LOW 1 - MINIMUM EXTENT - THE SEVERITY OR MAGNITUDE OF THE HAZARD SHOULD IT OCCUR IN THIS JURISDICTION 5 - VERY HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - MEDIUM 2 - LOW 1 - MINIMUM 1.2 Summary of HMPC Results A. Location of natural hazards The HMPC has identified that all of the natural hazards, flooding, hurricanes, severe storms, tornadoes, wildfires, droughts/heat waves, winter storms/freezes, dam/levee failures, landslides, sinkholes, and earthquakes, could occur in all the jurisdictions in Chambers County. B. Probability of natural hazards C. According to the HMPC the most likely natural hazards to occur are severe storms (3.8), winter storms (3.8), and tornadoes (3.8), followed by flooding (3.3) and drought/heat waves (3.3). The natural hazards that have some likelihood of occurring (3.0) are hurricanes. The least likely natural hazards are dam/levee failures, sinkholes, earthquakes, and landslides, all with ratings of less than 2.0. B-2

145 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA D. Extents of natural hazards E. The most potentially severe natural hazards are severe storms with a rating of 3.7, followed by tornadoes (3.5) and winter storms (3.5). F. Drought/heat waves (3.3), hurricanes (3.2), and dam/levee failures (3.0) all could be moderately high in severity. Wildfires (2.7) are considered by the HMPC to have a potential severity of low to medium in extent. The least severe impacts could be caused by sinkholes (1.8), earthquakes (1.3) and landslides (1.0). B-3

146 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Table B-1. Chambers County HMPC Identification and Ratings of Natural Hazards Hazard Geographic Area Location (2006) Location (2011) Extent (2006) Extent (2011) Probability (2006) Probability (2011) Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Flooding LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Hurricane LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Severe Storms LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Tornadoes Cusseta Fiv e Points B-4

147 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Hazard Geographic Area Location (2006) Location (2011) Extent (2006) Extent (2011) Probability (2006) Probability (2011) LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Wildfires LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Droughts/Heat Waves LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Winter Storms/Freezes Fiv e Points LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly B-5

148 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Hazard Geographic Area Location (2006) Location (2011) Extent (2006) Extent (2011) Probability (2006) Probability (2011) AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta 0 2 Dam/levee Failures Fiv e Points LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Landslides LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Sinkholes LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE B-6

149 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Hazard Geographic Area Location (2006) Location (2011) Extent (2006) Extent (2011) Probability (2006) Probability (2011) Chambers County Cusseta Fiv e Points Earthquakes LaFay ette Lanett Valley Wav erly AVERAGE LEPC Hazard Identification Exercise The Chambers County Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) met on June 21, 2012 to identify and rate technological/human-caused hazards. This exercise serves as the basis for the risk assessment for technological/human-caused hazards in Chambers County. The LEPC identified hazards, rated them for extent and probability and described any past occurrences. The information and tables below describes this effort. 1.4 Summary of LEPC Results B-7

150 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA G. Location of technological/human-caused hazards The LEPC has identified that all of the technological/human-caused hazards, hazardous materials spills, pandemic/disease outbreaks, controls failures, airplane crash, urban fires/explosions, school violence, cyber attacks and bioterrorism/bio attacks, could occur in all the jurisdictions in Chambers County. H. I. Probability of technological/human-caused hazards J. According to the LEPC the most likely technological/human-caused hazards to occur are transportation-related hazardous materials spills (5.0), pandemic/disease outbreak (3.0), and urban fires/explosions (3.0). The remaining technological/human-caused hazards have some likelihood of occurring (2.0). K. Extents of technological/human-caused hazards L. The most potentially severe technological/human-cause hazards are pandemic/disease outbreaks, airplane crash, and bioterrorism/bio attacks with a rating of 5.0. Transportation-related hazardous materials spills and controls failures (4.0) could be moderately high in severity. The remaining hazards, fixed-location hazardous materials spills, urban fires/explosions, school violence, and cyber attacks (3.0) are considered by the LEPC to have a potential severity of low to medium in extent. Chambers County Tech/Human Caused Hazard Location Extent Probability Hazardous Materials Spills (Transportation Related) X 4 5 Hazardous Materials Spills (Fixed Industrial Locations) X 3 2 Pandemic / Disease Outbreak X 5 3 Controls Failures X 4 2 Airplane Crash X 5 2 Urban Fires / Explosions X 3 3 School Violence X 3 2 Cy ber Attacks X 3 2 Bio terrorism/bio attacks X 5 2 M. B-8

151 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA N. 2.0 Hazard Descriptions O. 2.1 Hurricanes Description Hurricanes, as referred to in this plan, include all types of tropical cyclones: hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions. A tropical cyclone is a rotating w eather system that develops in the tropics. A tropical depression is an organized system of persistent clouds and thunderstorms w ith low level closed circulation and maximum sustained w inds of 38 mph or less. A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms w ith a w ell-defined circulation and maximum sustained w inds of 39 to 73 mph. All of these tropical cyclones begin as a disturbance. A disturbance may result from a number of different w eather events including Easterly Waves, West African Disturbance Line, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough or an Old Frontal Boundary. In order for a tropical disturbance to develop into a hurricane, three things must occur. First, the disturbance must gather energy and heat through contact w ith w arm ocean w aters. Next, added moisture evaporated from the sea surface provides pow er to the tropical storm. And last, the seedling storm forms a w ind pattern near the ocean surface that spirals inw ard. Warm w ater is the most important of the three, as it provides the fuel for a disturbance to eventually develop into a hurricane. A hurricane is a tropical w eather system w ith a w ell defined circulation and sustained w inds of 74 mph or higher. Even inland areas, w ell aw ay from the coastline, can experience destructive w inds, tornadoes and floods from tropical storms and hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November. Within the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico Figure D-1. How a Hurricane Forms annually there are an average of 11 tropical storms, 6 of w hich become hurricanes. In a typical three-year span, Source: National Hurricane Center ( the US coastline is struck an average of five times, tw o that are major hurricanes (category 3 or higher.) Hurricanes pose the greatest threat to life and property, but tropical depressions and storms can also cause extensive damage and loss of life. Hurricanes are categorized on a scale of 1 to 5 based on their sustained w ind speed. Herbert Saffir, a consulting engineer in Coral Gables, Florida, and Dr. Robert Simpson, then director of the National Hurricane Center, developed this scale in the 1970 s. Category 3-5 hurricanes are considered to be major storms. The Saffir-Simpson scale is based primarily on w ind speeds B-9

152 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA and includes estimates of barometric pressure and storm surge associated w ith each of the five categories. Table B-2. Saffir-Simpson Scale Storm Surge Category Wind Speed (feet abov e normal sea lev el) Expected Damage mph 4-5 ft mph 6-8 ft mph 9-12 ft mph ft 5 >155 mph >18 ft Minimal: Damage is done primarily to shrubbery and trees, unanchored mobile homes are damage, some signs are damaged, no real damage is done to structures Moderate: Some trees are toppled, some roof coverings are damaged, major damage is done to mobile homes Extensiv e: Large trees are toppled, some structural damage is done to roofs, mobile homes are destroyed, structural damage is done to small homes and utility buildings. Extreme: Extensive damage is done to roofs, windows, and doors; roof systems on small buildings completely fail, some curtain walls fail Catastrophic: Roof damage is considerable and widespread, window and door damage is severe, there are extensive glass failures and entire buildings could fail. Source: National Hurricane Center The main parts of a hurricane are the eye, the eye w all, and rain bands. The eye of a hurricane is the calmest part. The eye is typically miles across and has light w inds that don t exceed 15 mph. An eye w ill usually develop w hen the maximum sustained w ind speed is more than 74 mph. The strong rotation around the cyclone balances inflow to the center, causing air to ascend about miles from the center forming the eye w all. A vacuum of air at the center is caused due to the strong rotation, the vacuum allow s air flow ing out of the top of the eye w all to turn inw ard and sink to replace the loss of air mass near the center. Due to the sinking air, cloud formation is suppressed. The passage of the eye is the calmest part of the hurricane. Since there is a light w ind and fair w eather, many believe that the storm has passed, w hich can prove B-10

153 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA dangerous. Immediately after the passage of the eye, the eye w all w inds return but in an opposite direction. The eye w all is the part of a hurricane w here the strong w inds meet the eye. The eye w all is a group of tall thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and the strongest w inds w ithin the storm. Changes in the structure of the eye and eye w all can cause changes in the w ind speed, w hich is an indicator of the storm s intensity. An eye may grow or shrink in size and additional eye w alls can form. The rain bands are the outermost part of the hurricane. They are bands of clouds and thunderstorms that trail aw ay from the eye w all in a spiral fashion. These bands produce heavy rain and strong w inds, as w ell as potentially tornadoes. A hurricane also has additional hazards associated w ith it, both direct and indirect. The secondary hazards include storm surge, w ind gusts, squalls, inland flooding and tornadoes. Storm surge is w ater that is pushed tow ard the shore by the w inds around the storm. Storm surge combines w ith the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide. Wind driven w aves also combine into hurricane storm tide. The rise in w ater level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas. The level of surge is dependent upon the slope of the continental shelf. A shallow slope off of the coast allow s a higher surge to inundate the area. Figure B-2. Storm Surge Source: NW S Jet Stream- Online School for W eather at /jetstream/tropics/tc_hazards.htm In addition to storm surge, hurricanes are also know n for damaging w inds. They are rated according to their sustained w ind speed. This scale does not account for gusts and squalls. Gusts are short and rapid bursts in w ind speed. They are caused by turbulence over land mixing faster air aloft to the surface. Squalls are longer period of increased w ind speeds; they are normally located w ithin the outer rain bands. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and depressions many times bring torrential rains and flooding. This flooding may last many days after the storm has passed. The strength of the storm does not alw ays affect the level of flooding. A slow, w eak tropical B-11

154 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA storm can cause more damage due to flooding than a more pow erful fast moving hurricane. Tornadoes also may occur w ithin a tropical cyclone. They are most likely to occur in the right-front quadrant of the storm, but can be embedded w ithin the rain bands w ell aw ay from the center of the storm. Some hurricanes produce no tornadoes, w hile others develop numerous ones. According to NOAA studies, half of all land falling hurricanes produce at least one tornado. The effects of a tornado, in addition to hurricane force w inds, can produce substantial w ind damages. A tornado can develop at any point during landfall, but normally occur w ithin 12 hours after landfall, during daylight hours. Due to the likelihood of a tornado w ithin a hurricane, a tornado w atch is normally issued along the anticipated path of a hurricane before landfall. (The description of hurricanes presented in this section is based upon information extracted from the NOAA publication Hurricanes Unleashing Nature s Fury, A Preparedness Guide, Revised January 2007 at and the NWS Jet Stream Online School for Weather at P. 2.2 Severe Storms Description Severe storms, as referred to in this plan, include severe thunderstorms w ith damaging lightning, hail, and straight-line w inds. Severe storms are also associated w ith tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods, w hich are described separately in this plan. Thunderstorms affect relatively small areas w hen compared w ith hurricanes and w inter storms. The typical thunderstorm is 15 miles in diameter and lasts an average of 30 minutes. Despite their small size, thunderstorms can be dangerous. Of the estimated 100,000 thunderstorms that occur each year in the United States, about 10 percent are classified as severe. The National Weather Service considers a thunderstorm severe if it produces hail at least 3/4-inch in diameter, w inds of 58 mph or stronger, or a tornado. The National Weather Service estimates over 40,000 thunderstorms occur each day w orldw ide or close to 16 million annually. In the U.S., roughly 100,000 thunderstorms occur each year. The follow ing map show s the average number of thunderstorm days each year throughout the U.S. The most frequent occurrence is in the southeastern states, w ith Florida having the highest incidence at 80 to 100+ thunderstorm days per year. Alabama s incidence is high at 50 to 80 thunderstorm days per year. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is most readily available to fuel thunderstorm development in this region of the country. B-12

155 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Map B-1. U.S. Average Thunderstorm Days per Year Source: National W eather Service B-13

156 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Figure B-3. Life Cycle of a Thunderstorm Dev eloping Stage Towering cumulus cloud indicates rising air. Usually little if any rain during this stage. Lasts about 10 minutes. Occasional lightning. Mature Stage Most likely time for hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, and tornadoes. Storm occasionally has a black or dark green appearance. Lasts an average of 10 to 20 minutes but may last much longer in some storms. Dissipating Stage Rainfall decreases in intensity. Can still produce a burst of strong winds. Lightning remains a danger Source: National W eather Service B-14

157 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Lightning results from the buildup and discharge of electrical energy betw een positively and negatively charged areas. Rising and descending air w ithin a thunderstorm separates these positive and negative charges. Water and ice particles also affect charge distribution. A cloud-to-ground lightning strike begins as an invisible channel of electrically charged air moving from the cloud tow ard the ground. When one channel nears an object on the ground, a pow erful surge of electricity from the ground moves upw ard to the clouds and produces the visible lightning strike. Here are some facts about lightning from the National Weather Service: Lightning causes an average of 80 fatalities and 300 injuries each year. Lightning occurs in all thunderstorms. Each year lightning strikes the earth 20 million times. The energy from one lightning flash could light a 100-w att light bulb for more than three months. Most lightning fatalities and injuries occur w hen people are caught outdoors in the summer months during the afternoon and evening. Lightning can occur from cloud-to-cloud, w ithin a cloud, cloud-to-ground, or cloud-to-air. Lightning starts many fires in the w estern United States and Alaska. The air near a lightning strike is heated to 50,000 F--hotter than the surface of the sun! The rapid heating and cooling of the air near the lightning channel causes a shock w ave that results in thunder. Another damaging effect of severe storms is hail. Hail stones are large ice particles produced by intense thunderstorms. Strong rising currents of air w ithin a storm, called updrafts, carry w ater droplets to a height w here freezing occurs. Ice particles grow in size, becoming too heavy to be supported by the updraft, and fall to the ground. Large stones can fall at speeds faster than 100 mph. Hail causes substantial damage to property and crops each year in the U.S. Most thunderstorm w ind damage is Figure B-4. Hail Stones. caused by straight-line w inds, w hich can exceed 100 mph. One type of straight-line w ind, the dow nburst, is a small area of rapidly descending air beneath a thunderstorm. A dow nburst can cause damage equivalent to a strong tornado. B-15

158 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA (The description of severe storms presented in this section is based upon information extracted from National Weather Service on-line publications at Q. 2.3 Tornadoes Description Tornadoes are one of nature s most violent storms, w hich are characterized by a rapidly rotating column of air extending from the base of a thunderstorm to the ground. In an average year, approximately 1,000 tornadoes are reported across the United States, resulting in over 1,500 injuries and 80 deaths, the greatest number of w ind-related deaths. The most violent tornadoes, w ith w ind speeds of 250 mph or more, are capable of tremendous destruction. Damage paths can be more than one mile w ide and 50 miles long. Tornadoes can occur anyw here and come in all shapes and sizes. In Alabama, peak tornado season is generally March through May w ith a secondary season in late fall; how ever, tornadoes can strike at any time of the year if the essential conditions are present. Tornadoes in the peak season are often associated w ith strong, frontal systems that form in central states and move east. Occasionally, large outbreaks of tornadoes occur w ith this type of w eather pattern. Several states may be affected by numerous severe storms and tornadoes. Tornadoes can occur in thunderstorms that develop in w arm, moist air masses in advance of eastw ard-moving cold fronts. These thunderstorms often produce large hail and strong w inds, in addition to tornadoes. Thunderstorms spaw n tornadoes w hen cold air overrides a layer of w arm air, causing the w arm air to rise rapidly. Tornadoes occasionally accompany tropical storms and hurricanes that move over land. They are most common to the right and ahead of the path of the storm center as it comes onshore. The w inds produced from w ildfires have also been know n to produce tornadoes. The follow ing graphic describes the formation of a tornado: B-16

159 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Figure B-5. How a Tornado Forms Before thunderstorms develop, a change in wind direction and an increase in wind speed with increasing height create an invisible, horizontal spinning effect in the lower atmosphere. Rising air within the thunderstorm updraft tilts the rotating air from horizontal to vertical. An area of rotation, 2-6 miles wide, now extends through much of the storm. Most strong and violent tornadoes form within this area of strong rotation. Woodward OK (Ron Przybylinski) A lower cloud base in the center of the photograph identifies an area of rotation known as a rotating wall cloud. This area is often nearly rainfree. Note rain in the background. Woodward OK (Ron Przybylinski) Moments later a strong tornado develops in this area. Softball-size hail and damaging "straight-line" winds also occurred with this storm. Source: Tornadoes A Preparedness Guide, National W eather Service, February Meteorologists rely on w eather radar to provide information on developing storms. The National Weather Service is strategically locating Doppler radars across the country, w hich can detect air movement tow ard or aw ay from the radar. Early detection of increasing rotation aloft w ithin a thunderstorm can allow life-saving w arnings to be issued before the tornado forms. B-17

160 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA When conditions are favorable for severe w eather to develop, a severe thunderstorm or tornado WATCH is issued. Weather Service personnel use information from w eather radar, spotters, and other sources to issue severe thunderstorm and tornado WARNINGS for areas w here severe w eather is imminent. Severe thunderstorm w arnings are passed to local radio and television stations and are broadcast over local NOAA Weather Radio stations serving the w arned areas. These w arnings are also relayed to local emergency management and public safety officials w ho can activate local w arning systems to alert communities. In 1971, Dr. T. Theodore Fujita of the University of Chicago developed the original F-scale for w ind damages, including tornadoes. The original F-scale, how ever, w as recently replaced by an enhanced version effective February 1, The Enhanced F-scale is a more precise method of tornado damage assessment that classifies damage according to calibrations developed by engineers and meteorologists across 28 different types of damage indicators. The underlying premise is that a tornado scale needs to take into account the varying strengths and w eaknesses of different types of construction. As w ith the original F-scale, the enhanced version rates the tornado as a w hole based on most intense damage w ithin the path. Historical tornadoes before February 1, 2007, w ill not be re-evaluated using the Enhanced F-scale. Table B-3. Enhanced F Scale for Tornado Damage FUJITA SCALE DERIVED EF SCALE OPERATIONAL EF SCALE F Number Fastest 1/4-mile (mph) 3 Second Gust (mph) EF Number 3 Second Gust (mph) EF Number 3 Second Gust (mph) D D D Ov er 200 B-18

161 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center s On-Line Frequently Asked Questions about Tornadoes ( Table B-4. Fujita Tornado Damage Scale SCALE WIND ESTIMATE *** (MPH) TYPICAL DAMAGE F0 < 73 Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed ov er; sign boards damaged. F Moderate damage. Peels surf ace off roofs; mobile homes pushed off f oundations or ov erturned; moving autos blown of f roads. F Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars ov erturned; large trees snapped or uprooted; lightobject missiles generated; cars lifted off ground. F Severe damage. Roof s and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains ov erturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown. F Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak f oundations blown away some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated. F Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away ; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters (109 y ds); trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur. Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center s On-Line Frequently Asked Questions about Tornadoes ( (The description of tornadoes presented in this section is based upon information extracted from the FEMA How to Guides Understanding Your Risks (FEMA 386-2), FEMA, August 2001, and Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment (FEMA 433), FEMA, August 2004, Tornadoes A Preparedness Guide, National Weather Service, February 1995, and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center s On-Line Frequently Asked Questions about Tornadoes ( R. 2.4 Floods Description A flood is a natural event for rivers and streams. Excess w ater from snow melt, rainfall, or storm surge accumulates and overflow s onto the banks and adjacent floodplains. Floodplains are low lands, adjacent to rivers, lakes, and oceans that are subject to recurring floods. Hundreds of floods occur each year, making it one of the most common hazards in all 50 states and U.S. territories. Floods kill an average of 150 people a year nationw ide. They can occur at any time of the year, in any part of the country, and at any B-19

162 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA time of day or night. Floodplains in the U.S. are home to over nine million households. Most injuries and deaths occur w hen people are sw ept away by flood currents, and most property damage results from inundation by sediment-filled w ater. Several factors determine the severity of floods, including rainfall intensity, other w ater source and duration. A large amount of rainfall over a short time span can result in flash flood conditions. A small amount of rain can also result in floods in locations w here the soil is saturated from a previous w et period or if the rain is concentrated in an area of impermeable surfaces such as large parking lots, paved roadw ays, or other impervious developed areas. Topography and ground cover are also contributing factors for floods. Water runoff is greater in areas w ith steep slopes and little or no vegetative ground cover. Frequency of inundation depends on the climate, soil, and channel slope. In regions w here substantial precipitation occurs in a particular season each year, or in regions w here annual flooding is derived principally from snow melt, the floodplains may be inundated nearly every year. In regions w ithout extended periods of below -freezing temperatures, floods usually occur in the season of highest precipitation. In areas w here flooding is caused by melting snow, and occasionally compounded by rainfall, the flood season is spring or early summer. Fortunately, most of the know n floodplains in the United States have been mapped by FEMA, w hich administers the NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program). When a flood study is completed for the NFIP, the information and maps are assembled into a Flood Insurance Study (FIS). An FIS is a compilation and presentation of flood risk data for specific w atercourses, lakes, and coastal flood hazard areas w ithin a community and includes causes of flooding. The FIS report and associated maps delineate Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), designate flood risk zones, and establish base flood elevations (BFEs), based on the flood that has a 1% chance of occurring annually, or the 100-year flood. Paper FIRMs and FIS reports are gradually being replaced by DFIRMs (digital FIRMs). The 100-year flood designation applies to the area that has a 1 percent chance, on average, of flooding in any given year. How ever, a 100-year flood could occur tw o years in a row, or once every 10 years. The 100-year flood is also referred to as the base flood. The base flood is the standard that has been adopted for the NFIP. It is a national standard that represents a compromise betw een minor floods and the greatest flood likely to occur in a given area and provides a useful benchmark. Base Flood Elevation (BFE), as show n on the FIRM, is the elevation of the w ater surface resulting from a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The BFE is the height of the base flood, usually in feet, in relation to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD) of 1929, the North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) of 1988, or other datum referenced in the FIS report. Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) is the shaded A-Zone or V-Zone area on a FIRM that identifies an area that has a 1% chance of being flooded in any given year or the 100-year floodplain. FIRMs show different floodplains w ith different zone B-20

163 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA designations, as show n on Table D-7 Flood Zone Designations. These are used for insurance rating purposes, but are also necessary for flood permitting and flood hazard mitigation planning purposes. The 500-Year Floodplain is the shaded X-Zone area show n on a FIRM that has a 0.2% chance of being flooded in any given year. Table B-5. Flood Zone Designations 100-year floodplain areas of high risk. A Zones V Zones A AE AO AH A99 AR V VE The base floodplain mapped by approximate methods, i.e., BFEs are not determined. This is often called an unnumbered A zone or an approximate A zone. The base floodplain where base flood elevations are provided. The base floodplain with sheet flow, ponding, or shallow flooding. Base flood depths (feet above ground) are provided. Shallow flooding base floodplain. BFEs are provided. Area to be protected from base flood by levees or Federal flood protection systems under construction. BFEs are not determined. The base floodplain that results from the de-certification of a previously accredited flood protection system that is in the process of being restored to provide a 100-year or greater level of flood protection. 100-year coastal floodplain areas of high risk The coastal area subject to a velocity hazard (wave action) where BFEs are not determined on the FIRM. The coastal area subject to a velocity hazard (wave action) where BFEs are provided on the FIRM. Areas of minimal to moderate risk outside the 100-year floodplain. X Zones Shaded Area of moderate flood hazard, usually the area between the limits of the 100-year and 500-year floods. Also includes areas protected by levees from the 100-year flood and shallow flooding areas with average depths of less than one foot or drainage areas less than 1 square mile. B-21

164 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Unshaded Area of minimal flood hazard determined to be outside the 500-year floodplain. D Zone Area of undetermined but possible flood hazards. Source: FEMA Floodw ay is the stream channel and that portion of the adjacent floodplain that must remain open to permit passage of the base flood w ithout substantial increases in flood heights. The Flood Fringe is the remainder of the 100-year floodplain. The follow ing graphic show s the components of a floodplain along a stream: Figure B-6. Flood Plain Cross Section Source: FEMA A range of floods, other than just the 100-year flood, could happen w ithin an area. Buildings in very close proximity to a stream or shoreline, f or example, might experience flooding much more frequently. (The description of floods presented in this section is based upon information extracted from the FEMA How to Guide Understanding Your Risks (FEMA 386-2), FEMA, August 2001). B-22

165 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA S. 2.5 Wildfires Description Wildfires are a serious and grow ing hazard over much of the United States, posing great threats to life and property, particularly w hen moving from rural forest or rangeland into developed urban areas. Millions of acres burn every year in the United States as a result of w ildfires, causing millions of dollars in damage. Each year more than 100,000 w ildfires occur in the United States, almost 90 percent of w hich are started by humans; the rest are caused by natural causes, primarily lightning, other natural causes include sparks from falling rocks and volcanic activity. Weather is one of the most significant factors in determining the severity of w ildfires. The intensity of fires and the rate w ith w hich they spread is directly related to w ind speed, temperature, and relative humidity. Climatic conditions, such as long-term drought, also play a major role in the number and the intensity of w ildfires. A w ildfire is an uncontrolled fire spreading through vegetative fuels, exposing and possibly consuming structures. They often begin unnoticed and spread quickly and are usually signaled by dense smoke that fills the area for miles around. Most w ildfires fall w ithin tw o categories: Wildland Fire and Wildland-Urban Interface fires. Wildland fires occur in areas w here there is little development except for roads, railroads, pow er lines and other basic infrastructure. Wildland-urban interface fires occur in areas w here development, primarily residential, meet w ildland areas. Areas w ith a large amount of w ooded, brush and grassy areas are at highest risk from w ildfires. The primary cause of w ildfires is human activity, either intentional or accidental. Intentional fires may be started as prescribed burns, to drive game or arson. Accidental fires are caused by the carelessness of hikers or others traveling through w ildland areas. The severity and duration of the fire is based upon numerous factors including available fuel, topography and w eather conditions. Through efforts of the Alabama Forestry Commission, w ildfires are decreasing. They have a fleet of airplanes available to patrol vulnerable areas. There is also a toll-free number in place for the public to call and report w ildfires. The forestry commission does have firefighters available to respond to fires, but the effort is largely accomplished through a netw ork of volunteer fire departments. (The description of wildfires presented in this section is based upon information extracted from the FEMA How to Guides Understanding Your Risks (FEMA 386-2), August 2001, Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment How to Guide (FEMA 433), August 2004, and the Alabama Forestry Commission at T. 2.6 Droughts/Heat Waves Description A drought can occur almost anyw here, and its features vary from place to place depending on culture and geography. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), there are four w ays of measuring drought. First is a meteorological drought, w hich is a decrease in precipitation in some period of time. These are usually region-specific, and based on a thorough understanding of regional climatology. B-23

166 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Meteorological measurements are the first sign of drought. An agricultural drought occurs w hen there is not enough soil moisture to meet the needs of a particular crop at a particular time. Agricultural drought occurs after a meteorological drought, but before hydrological drought. Hydrological drought is deficiencies in surface and subsurface w ater supplies. It is measured as stream flow and at lake, reservoir and groundw ater levels. There is a time lag betw een lack of rain and less w ater in rivers, streams, reservoirs and lakes. When precipitation is deficient over time, it w ill show in these w ater levels. The last type of drought defined by NDMC is a socioeconomic drought, w hich occurs w hen w ater shortages begin to affect people. In addition to the impacts discussed above, w ater level decline due to drought can also cause sinkholes to form. The draft Alabama Drought Management Plan (2004) by the Office of Water Resources of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) explains the potential threats of droughts to Alabama and the need for effective drought planning and management, as follow s: In recent years, drought conditions have endangered Alabama s water resources and adversely affected the livelihood of many people. Drought is a natural event that, unlike floods or tornadoes, does not occur in a violent burst but gradually happens; furthermore, the duration and extent happens; furthermore, the duration and extent of drought conditions are unknown because rainfall is unpredictable in amount, duration and location. The devastation (environmental, social, and economic) experienced in recent years due to drought conditions has not been successfully mitigated because previous responses to drought conditions at all levels of government has been slow and fragmented, with little focus on preparedness and mitigation. In an effort to be more proactive, the Office of Water Resources worked closely with numerous local, state, and federal agencies and other water resources professionals to develop and implement this statewide approach to drought planning and management. The State drought plan establishes four phases of drought conditions drought w atch, advisory, w arning, and emergency identified by a compilation of drought indices, w hich include Crop Moisture Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Stream Flow, Reservoir Elevation Level, and Groundw ater. Each of these phases requires varying levels of management. The U.S. Drought Monitor by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) uses a four-tier system to continuously monitor drought intensity based on another combination of drought indices. D0 includes drought w atch areas that are abnormally dry and on the verge of drought or recovering from drought. D1 is the first drought stage w ith severe conditions, and D4 is most intense drought stage w ith exceptional drought conditions. The primary adverse physical effects of drought are classified as A (adverse impacts to agricultural crops, pastures, and grasslands) or H (adverse impacts to hydrologic resources for w ater supply, including rivers, reservoirs, and groundw ater). B-24

167 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA According to NOAA, extreme heat is the number one w eather related killer taking an average of 1,500 people in the U.S. annually. The National Weather Service issues w atches and w arnings w hen the heat index is expected to exceed F for at least tw o consecutive days. The heat index is given in degrees Fahrenheit and is a measure of how hot it really feels w hen the relative humidity is added to the actual air temperature. Table B-6. NOAA's National Weather Service Heat Index Source: NOAA at ex.shtml (The description of droughts/extreme heat presented in this section is extracted from: National Drought Mitigation Center, Defining Drought: Overview at and NOAA, Heat Wave: A Major Summer Killer at ). U. 2.7 Winter Storms/Freezes Description Winter storms and blizzards originate as mid-latitude depressions or cyclonic w eather systems, sometimes follow ing the meandering path of the jet stream. A blizzard combines heavy snow fall, high w inds, extreme cold, and ice storms. The origins of the w eather patterns that cause severe w inter storms are primarily from four sources in the continental United States. Winter storms in the southeast region of the United States are usually a result of Canadian and Arctic cold fronts from the north and mid-w estern states combining w ith tropical cyclonic w eather systems in the Gulf of Mexico. Typical B-25

168 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA w inter storms in the Southeast include ice storms, crop-killing freezes and occasional snow. Figure B-7. Types of Winter Precipitation Source: National W eather Service, W inter Storms, The Deceptive Killers at Types of events that occur w ithin a w inter storm include freezing rain, sleet, blizzards, and frost/freeze. Freezing rain is rain that freezes w hen it hits the ground w hich coats roads, trees and pow er lines. Sleet is rain that turns into ice pellets before hitting the ground. A blizzard is snow fall w ith sustained w inds or frequent gusts up to 35mph and considerable amounts of blow ing snow. The expectation is that blizzard conditions w ill last 3 or more hours. Freezes occur w hen the temperatures w ill go below freezing. Many times frost/freezes cause substantial damage to crops. (The description of winter storms/freezes presented in this section is extracted from NOAA/NWS s publication Winter Storms, The Deceptive Killers, A Preparedness Guide at V. 2.8 Earthquakes Description An earthquake is the shaking and vibration at the surface of the earth resulting from underground movement along a fault plane. Earthquakes are caused by the release of built-up stress w ithin rocks along geologic faults or by the movement of magma in volcanic areas. They usually occur w ithout w arning and are usually follow ed by aftershocks. Earthquakes can affect hundreds of thousands of square miles and cause tens of billions of dollars of damage to property. An earthquake event can cause injury and loss of life to hundreds of thousands of persons and can greatly disrupt the social and economic functioning of the affected area. Secondary hazards during an earthquake may occur, such as surface faulting, sinkholes, and landslides. B-26

169 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA The rupture or sudden movement of a fault causes earthquakes w here stresses have accumulated along opposing fault planes of the earth s outer crust. These fault planes are usually found along the borders of the earth s tectonic plates, w hich generally follow the outlines of the continents. How ever, fault planes may occur at the interior of the plates. The plates range from 50 to 60 miles in thickness and move slow ly and continuously over the earth s interior. Where the plates move past each other, they continually bump, slide, catch, and hold. When the stress exceeds the elastic limit of the rock, an earthquake occurs. Generally, the larger the earthquake, the greater the potential for surface fault rupture. The area of greatest seismic activity in the United States is along the Pacific coast in California and Alaska, but as many as forty states can be characterized as having at least moderate earthquake risk. For example, seismic activity has been recorded in Boston, Massachusetts; New Madrid, Missouri; and Charleston, South Carolina, places not typically thought of as earthquake zones. Areas prone to earthquakes are relatively easy to identify in the Western United States based on know n geologic formations; how ever, predicting exactly w hen and w here earthquakes w ill occur is very difficult everyw here. Records show that building inventories in 39 states are vulnerable to earthquake damage. Most property damage and earthquake-related deaths result from the failure and collapse of structures caused by ground shaking or ground motion. Ground shaking is the motion felt on the earth s surface caused by seismic w aves generated by an earthquake. The strength of the ground shaking is determined by the magnitude of the earthquake, the surface distance from the earthquake s epicenter and type of fault, and by the site and regional geology. Ground shaking causes w aves in the earth s interior, know n as seismic w aves, and along the earth s surface, know n as surface waves. There are tw o types of seismic w aves: primary waves w hich are longitudinal that cause back-and-forth oscillation along the direction of travel (vertical motion); and secondary waves or shear waves w hich are slow er than primary w aves and cause structures to vibrate from side-to-side (horizontal motion). Surface w aves travel more slow ly than and are usually significantly less damaging than seismic w aves, illustrated by Figure B-8, below. B-27

170 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Figure B-8. Seismic and Surface Waves Source: FEMA Additional earthquake related hazards include landslides, liquefaction, and amplification. Earthquake-induced landslides are secondary earthquake hazards that occur from ground shaking. They can destroy roads, buildings, utilities, and other critical facilities necessary to respond to or recover from an earthquake. As sloped lands are developed, earthquake-induced landslides pose additional threats to homes and infrastructure. Soil type can substantially increase earthquake risk. Liquefaction occurs w hen ground-shaking causes saturated soft soils to change from a solid to a liquid state. Liquefaction results in the loss of soil strength and three potential types of ground failure: lateral spreading, flow failure, and loss of bearing strength. Buildings and their occupants are at risk w hen the ground can no longer support buildings and structures. Areas susceptible to liquefaction include areas w ith high ground w ater tables and sandy soils. The extreme earthquake damage to San Francisco in 1989 w as due to liquefaction of the soil used to fill in w aterfront properties. B-28

171 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Amplification (strengthening) of shaking also results in areas of soft soils, w hich includes fill, loose sand, w aterfront, and lakebed clays. Amplification increases the magnitude of the seismic w aves generated by the earthquake. Chart B-1. Earthquake Magnitude Scale Source: USGS Seismic activity is described in terms of magnitude and intensity. Magnitude describes the total energy released and intensity describes the effects at a particular location. Magnitude is defined as the measure of the amplitude of the seismic w ave and is expressed by the Richter scale. The Richter scale is a logarithmic measurement w here an increase in the scale by one w hole number represents a tenfold increase in the measured amplitude of the earthquake. Geologists use other measures of magnitude and intensity such as Moment Magnitude, Energy Magnitude and others as described at Intensity is defined as the measure of the strength of the shock at a particular location and is expressed by the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. It w as developed in 1931 by the American seismologists Harry Wood and Frank Neumann. The scale consists of a series of certain key responses such as people aw akening, movement of furniture, the damage to structures, and total destruction. The lower numbers of the intensity scale generally deal w ith the manner in w hich the earthquake is felt by people. The higher numbers of the scale are based on observed structural damage. This scale, composed of 12 increasing levels of intensity that range from imperceptible shaking to catastrophic destruction, is designated by Roman numerals. It does not have a mathematical basis; instead it is an arbitrary ranking based on observed effects. Table B-9 compares the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale w ith the Richter scale. B-29

172 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Table B-7. Earthquake Scales Comparison Modified Mercalli Intensity and Richter Scale Comparison SCALE INTENSITY DESCRIPTION OF EFFECTS CORRESPONDING RICHTER SCALE MAGNITUDE I Instrumental Detected only on seismographs II Feeble Some people f eel it <4.2 III Slight Felt by people resting; like a truck rumbling by IV Moderate Felt by people walking V Slightly Strong Sleepers awake; church bells ring <4.8 VI Strong Trees sway ; suspended objects swing, objects fall of f shelves <5.4 VII Very Strong Mild Alarm; walls crack; plaster f alls <6.1 VIII Destructiv e Mov ing cars uncontrollable; masonry fractures, poorly constructed buildings damaged IX Ruinous Some houses collapse; ground cracks; pipes break open <6.9 X Disastrous Ground cracks prof usely; many buildings destroy ed; liquefaction and landslides widespread <7.3 XI Very Disastrous Most buildings and bridges collapse; roads, railway s, pipes and cables destroyed; general triggering of other hazards <8.1 XII Catastrophic Total destruction; trees fall; ground rises and f alls in wav es >8.1 Source: FEMA Another measurement of seismic activity is Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), w hich measures the rate of change of motion relative to the rate of acceleration due to gravity. An object falling to earth w ill fall faster and faster, until it reaches terminal velocity. This principle is know n as acceleration and represents the rate at w hich speed is increasing. This movement can be described by its changing position as a function of time, or by its acceleration as a function of time. The peak acceleration is the maximum acceleration experienced by the object during the course of the earthquake motion. Peak ground acceleration can be measured in g (the acceleration due to gravity at the earth s surface is 9.8 meters per second squared). For example, acceleration of the ground B-30

173 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA surface of 244 cm/sec/sec (w here g equals 9.8 meters per second squared) equals a PGA of 25.0 percent. Map B-2 show s the 2008 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for the southeastern United States w ith a 2% chance of being exceeded over 50 years. This is a common earthquake measurement that show s three things: the geographic area affected (the areas show n in color), the probability of an earthquake at each given level of severity, and the severity (the PGA is indicated by color). Map B PGA for Southeast Peak Ground Acceleration w ith 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years Source: U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program (The description of earthquakes presented in this section is based upon information extracted from the FEMA How to Guides Understanding Your Risks (FEMA 386-2), August 2001, Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment How to Guide (FEMA 433), August 2004, 2007 Alabama State Hazard Mitigation Plan, U.S. Geological Survey Earthquakes Hazard Program, and various FEMA-adopted plans). W. 2.9 Dam/Levee Failures Description Dam failure or levee failure can occur w ith little w arning. Strong storms may produce a flood in a few hours or minutes for upstream locations, w hich can cause a dam or levee failure. Flash floods occur w ithin six hours of the beginning of heavy rainfall and dam failure may occur B-31

174 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA w ithin hours of the first sign of a breach. Dam failures are potentially the w orst flood event. There are more than 80,000 dams in the United States according to the 2007 update of the National Inventory of Dams. According to FEMA, one third of these pose a high or significant hazard to life and property if failure occurs. 56% of dams are privately ow ned, and the dam ow ner is responsible for the safety and liability of the dam as w ell for upkeep, upgrade and repair. This compounds the risk that is posed due to dam or levee failure. (The description of dam/levee failures presented in this section is extracted from FEMA, Disaster Types, Dam Failure at X Landslides Description Landslides occur and can cause damage in all 50 States, at an annual cost of about $3.5 billion per year (FEMA 2005.). Betw een 25 and 50 deaths per year in the U.S. are attributable to landslides. Landslides cause damage to the natural environment and economic losses, due to reduced real estate values, decreased agricultural and forestry productivity, among other adverse economic effects. Severe storms, earthquakes, coastal w ave attack, and w ildfires can cause w idespread slope instability and result in landslides. Landslide danger may be high, even as emergency personnel are providing rescue and recovery services for these other hazard events. A landslide is a dow nw ard and outw ard movement of slope-forming soil, rock, and vegetation under the influence of gravity, w hich includes a w ide range of ground movement. Numerous types of events, including natural and man-made changes w ithin the environment, can trigger landslides. Examples of these changes that cause w eaknesses in the composition or structures of the rock or soil include heavy rain, changes in ground w ater level, seismic activity, or construction activity. Man-made landslides may result from activities such as terracing, cut and fill construction, building construction, mining operations, and changes in irrigation or surface runoff. There are three different types of landslides: rock falls, slides, and flow s. Rock falls are rapid movement of bedrock characterized by free-fall, bouncing and rolling. Slides are movements of soil or rock along a distinct surface of rupture that separates the slide material from the more stable underlying material. There are tw o major types of slides: rotational and translational slides. In a rotational slide the surface of rupture is curved B-32

175 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA concavely upw ard and the slide block rotates around an axis parallel to the slope contours. A translational slide is a mass that moves dow n and outw ard along a relatively planar surface w ith little rotational movement or backw ard tilting. Flow s are mass movements of w ater-saturated material. The movement of flow s can be extremely rapid (debris avalanche), very rapid (debris flow ) or very slow (earth flow ). Here are some significant landslide facts from the USGS: Landslides often accompany earthquakes, floods, storm surges, hurricanes, wildfires, or volcanic activity. They are often more damaging and deadly than the triggering event (examples: the 1964 Alaska earthquake-induced landslides and the 1980 Mount St. Helens volcanic debris flow). Human activities and population expansion are major factors in increased landslide damage and costs. The May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens caused the largest landslide in history a rock slide-debris avalanche large enough to fill 250 million dump trucks to the brim traveled about 14 miles, destroying nine highway bridges, numerous private and public buildings, and many miles of highways, roads, and railroads. The debris avalanche also formed several new lakes by dam ming the North Fork Toutle River and its tributaries. These lakes posed hazards to downstream communities because of the possible failure of the dams, which could have resulted in catastrophic flooding. Although the National Flood Insurance Act covers certain damage from mudflows, insurance against landslides is generally unavailable in most areas of the United States. As a result, many victims of landslides resort to litigation in order to recover damages. (The description of landslides presented in this section is extracted from the Geological Survey of Alabama, Geologic Hazards Section at and the U.S.G.S. Landslides Hazards Program at ). Y Sinkholes (Land Subsidence) Description Sinkholes are a naturally occurring geologic feature that can be hazardous to property and the environment. Their formation is due to w ater dissolving rock below the land surface. The types of rock most susceptible to sinkhole formation are limestone, carbonate rock and salt beds. As the rock dissolves, spaces and caverns develop underground, w hen large enough, the ground dramatically collapses leaving a visible sinkhole at the surface. Although normally no more than a nuisance, some sinkholes B-33

176 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA can become very large and a house or road may be on top w hen the collapse occurs. See Figure B-9, w hich show s the making of a sinkhole. Figure B-10 illustrates the formation of a collapse. Figure B-9. The Making of a Sinkhole Source: Southwest Florida W ater Management District Figure B-10. Formation of a Collapse B-34

177 APPENDICES 2012 Chambers County THIRA Source: U.S. Geological Survey Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center Sinkholes range in size from several square yards to hundreds of acres. They may be quite shallow or may extend hundreds of feet deep. The most damage from sinkholes tends to occur in Florida, Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. The picture in Figure B-11 show s a sinkhole that quickly opened up causing major damage to a house and yard. Figure B-11. Sinkhole Collapse of House Source: U.S. Geological Survey, W ater Science for Schools B-35