NRC Workshop Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Jan 29-31, Mel Schaefer Ph.D. P.E. MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.
|
|
- Gabriella McGee
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Stochastic Event Flood Model (SEFM) Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods A Hydrological Tool for Analysis of Extreme Floods Mel Schaefer Ph.D. P.E. MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. Olympia, WA NRC Workshop Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Jan 213 Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods PURPOSE Develop Magnitude -Frequency Relationships (Hydrologic Hazard Curves) for: Flood Inflow Discharge (Peak, Max 6-hr, 24-hr, 72-hr, etc) Flood Runoff Volume Maximum Reservoir Level ( primary interest ) Maximum Reservoir Outflow Depth of Overtopping Flows Duration of Spillway Flows exceeding a discharge threshold MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 1
2 Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods APPLICATIONS Hydrologic Hazard Curves for Risk Analysis Conduct Global Sensitivity Analysis Assess Conservatism of Proposed PMF Provide Information for Decision Making about: Flood Magnitude-Frequency Seasonality of Floods Reservoir Operations for Floods Advances That Make Stochastic Flood Modeling Possible Increases in Computational Power of PC 2, simulations in 1-hour GIS Spatial Mapping Products and Methods particularly for Precipitation (PRISM) Regional Analysis Methods and L-Moment Statistics for developing basin-specific specific precipitation-frequency relationship including extreme events Long record lengths for precipitation data 35+ years records in mountains (SNOTEL) MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 2
3 History of SEFM Development started in 1996 Used by USBR for Hydrologic Risk Analyses since 1998 Bumping Lake Dam Bumping River, WA A.R. Bowman Dam Crooked River, OR Cle Elum Dam Cle Elum River, WA Keechelus Dam Yakima River, WA Minidoka Dam Snake River, ID Whiskeytown Dam Clear Creek, CA Trinity Dam Trinity River, CA Altus Dam North Fork Red River, OK History of SEFM BC Hydro Mica Dam (787-ft), Upper Columbia River, BC received International Peer Review - 21 US Corps of Engineers Folsom Dam, American River, CA SEFM Accepted by USCOE for Analysis of Extreme Floods and PMF - 25 Puget Sound Energy Baker River Project, Baker River, WA FERC Licensed Project - 29 BC Hydro Campbell River System, Vancouver Island BC 3 Dams in series 1,5-km 2 watershed MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 3
4 Current Projects SEFM USBR and Southern California Edison Friant Dam and Mammoth Pool Dam, San Joaquin River, CA 6 SCE Dams in Upper Watershed - 1,6-mi 2 watershed BC Hydro Bridge River System, Coastal Mountains, BC 3 dam system - 3,5-km 2 watershed SEFM Primary Deliverable Magnitude-Frequency Curve for Maximum Reservoir Level (Hydrologic Hazard Curve) MA AX RESERVOIR ELEV (ft) Extreme Value Type 1 Plotting Paper West Pass Dike ft NAVD88 PMF Estimate ft NAVD88 Stochastic Model Results Top of Flood Control Pool ft NAVD88 Top of Dam ft NAVD88 Upper Baker Project Regulated Frequency Curve ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY Integrates Frequency Information Flood Peak Discharge Runoff Volume Hydrograph Shape Initial Reservoir Level Reservoir Operations while Preserving Seasonality of Events MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 4
5 SEFM Other Outputs Magnitude-Frequency Curves for Flood Discharge -HOUR DISCHARGE (cfs) 72 Thousands Extreme Value Type 1 Plotting Paper ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY 1-6 Model Outputs for Reservoir Inflow Instantaneous Peak Max 6-hr Discharge Max 24-hr Discharge Max 72-hr Discharge SEFM Structure SEFM Engine conducts stochastic simulations and many rainfall-runoff runoff and snowmelt computational tasks Watershed Model conventional watershed modeling tasks that were not conducted by SEFM engine; for HEC-1, primarily used as network model for routing of streamflow from sub-basins Post Processor processes watershed model output to develop flood-frequency frequency relationships, stores all simulation inputs and outputs, flood hydrographs, etc MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 5
6 SEFM Operational Modes Completely Deterministic Mode Completely Stochastic Mode Mixed Mode - Some Inputs are Set (Fixed) Other Inputs Treated as Variables (Stochastic) Stochastic Approach GOAL Simulate the hydrologic behavior of the watershed in a manner that provides an unbiased measure of the magnitude-frequency characteristics of floods (looking for reality/truth, not conservative estimates) SEFM draws heavily on the analysis of historical data using regional analysis methods Historical data are analyzed to obtain a better understanding of the actual behavior of the hydrometeorological components to assist in the realistic simulation of floods MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 6
7 Stochastic Approach 1) Use Deterministic Rainfall-Runoff Runoff Model HEC-1,UBCWM, WATFLOOD, (HEC-HMS HMS in future) 2) Treat Hydrometeorological Inputs as Variables 3) Stochastically Generate Multi-Thousand Years of Storms and Dates of Storm Occurrence 4) Select Hydrometeorological Inputs to Accompany Storms and Maintain Seasonal Characteristics and Dependencies Stochastic Approach 5) Compute Multi-Thousand Flood Annual Maxima using Hydrologic Model and Input Datasets Conduct Sufficient Simulations to Exceed Flood Magnitudes of Interest 6) Rank Flood Outputs in Descending Order of Magnitude and Assign Exceedance Probabilities using a Plotting Position Formula 7) Construct Probability-Plots Plots for Flood Characteristics of Interest No Need to Fit a Probability Distribution, Floods Characteristics of Interest Found from Interpolation Not Extrapolation MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 7
8 Stochastic Simulation Storm Related Variables Magnitude of Basin-Average Precipitation (24-hr, 72-hr) PRECIPITATION (in) 72-HOUR 48 Extreme Value Type 1 Plotting Paper 44 American River Watershed 9% Uncertainty Bound 4 36 Best Estimate % Uncertainty Bound ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY Spatial Distribution of Precipitation over Watershed 1-5 Temporal Distribution of Precipitation over Watershed variable storm duration. HOURLY PRECIPITATION (in) Friant Watershed Basin-Average Dec 18-27, 1955 Scaled Storm 72-Hour Maxima = 27.-in ELAPSED TIME (Hours) Stochastic Simulation Hydrometeorological Variables Antecedent Precipitation Spatially Distributed Antecedent Snowpack (spatially distributed snow depth and density) Antecedent Soil-Moisture (spatially distributed by soil type) Freezing Level and Air Temperature Temporal Pattern Initial Streamflow Initial Reservoir Level MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 8
9 Stochastic Simulation Rainfall-Runoff Runoff Modeling Runoff Modeled on Distributed Basis Surface Runoff Response Interflow Runoff Response Snowmelt Runoff Computation includes Snow Water Accounting within Snowpack and Energy-Budget Approach Watershed Model Calibration Watershed Model Calibrated to Historical Floods DISCHARGE (cfs) Folsom Dam 28 Dec 25 - Jan 4, 1997 Observed 24 Simulated TIME (Days) 3-DAY DISCHARGE (cfs) Thousands 3 Log-Normal Plotting Paper 2 American River at Folsom Dam 15 NO Upstream Regulation Systematic Record Stochastic Flood Model RECURRENCE INTERVAL (Years) 2 Stochastic Model Calibrated to Historical Flood-Frequency Frequency Curves at Multiple Durations (24-hr, 72-hr) MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 9
10 Stochastic Simulations Each flood simulation represents an annual maxima flood based on historical behavior of the hydrometeorological inputs and the observed flood response of the watershed Sufficient flood simulations conducted so there is no need to fit a probability distribution to the flood outputs flood-frequency frequency relationship can be depicted via a probability-plot plot Flood simulations reflect flood hazards based on current climatic characteristics effects of climate change can be assessed through sensitivity analysis or uncertainty analysis SEFM Output Primary Outputs are Magnitude-Frequency Curves (Hydrologic Hazard Curves) RES SERVOIR STAGE (Feet) Extreme Value Type 1 Plotting Paper American River at Folsom Dam Top of Flood Control Pool 1997 Flood 1986 Flood ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY Stochastic Flood Model Curve Extension Method Regulated Frequency Curve Hydrologic loading for extreme floods are of primary interest 1-6 MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 1
11 SEFM Example Output Safe Channel Capacity within the Levee System is a Concern in the Sacramento Valley RESERVOIR OUTFLOW (cfs) nds Thousan Extreme Value Type 1 Plotting Paper 13 American River at Folsom Dam 12 Regulated Frequency Curve 11 1 Stochastic Flood Model 9 8 Curve Extension Method 7 6 Safe Channel Capacity 115, cfs ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY Magnitude-Frequency Relationships for Maximum Reservoir Level and Reservoir Discharges are Typically Very Non-Linear - Due to Operations 1-6 SEFM Example Output Strathcona Dam - Vancouver Island BC Various Reservoir Elevations Are Often of Interest for Evaluating Potential Failure Modes MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 11
12 Selected Examples of Interest Watershed Layout for Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Runoff Modeling Seasonality of Storms Precipitation-Frequency Relationships for Watershed Diversity of Temporal Patterns for Storms Distributed Rainfall-Runoff, Runoff, Snowmelt Modeling 11 Zones of Mean Annual Precipitation American River, CA Mean Annual Precipitation varies from 2-inches (zone 1) to 72-inches (zone 11) MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 12
13 Distributed Rainfall-Runoff, Runoff, Snowmelt Modeling American River, CA 9 Elevation Zones Elevation varies from 3-feet (zone 1) to 12,-feet (zone 9) Distributed Rainfall-Runoff, Runoff, Snowmelt Modeling 7 Zones for Describing Soil Characteristics Soil Characterization from NRCS Merged to produce 7 Soil Zones with similar hydrologic characteristics MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 13
14 Distributed Rainfall-Runoff, Runoff, Snowmelt Modeling Hydrologic Runoff Units (HRUs) are polygons of land formed from the intersection of Zones of Mean Annual Precipitation, Elevation and Soil Type 263 unique HRUs in American River Watershed for: Soil moisture accounting Snow-water water accounting Spatial allocation of snowpack Rainfall-runoff modeling Snowmelt modeling Stochastic Hydrometeorological Inputs Seasonality of Storms FREQUENCY WEST FACE SIERRA MOUNTAINS 4 Storms 72 Hour Duration Storms exceeding 1-year event Historical Storms Normal Distribution SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG MONTH E NUMERICAL STORM DATE American River Watershed 18. Normal Plotting Paper Hour Extreme Storms Normal Distribution NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY Studies in western US and British Columbia Show Storm Seasons to be Normally Distributed MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 14
15 Stochastic Hydrometeorological Inputs Magnitude of 72-Hour Precipitation Annual Maxima (in) 72-HOUR PRECIPITATION Extreme Value Type 1 Plotting Paper American River Watershed Best Estimate 9% Uncertainty Bound % Uncertainty Bound ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY Precipitation-Frequency for American River Watershed 1,862-mi 2 Slightly More Positive Skew than Extreme Value Type 1 PMP Estimate Revised Dam Goes from Safe to Unsafe? MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 15
16 Large Storms occur on Campbell River Watershed when Moist Inflow Winds are from the East and ESE Orographic Precipitation occurs from Upslope Winds on what is typically the Leeward Mountain Face Duration of Heavy Precipitation dependent upon sustaining moist inflow winds from East and ESE Duration of Upslope Winds is Transient Condition During Storm Passage Result: Large Volume Storms/Floods are Rare for Campbell River Watershed Relative to Windward Face Stochastic Hydrometeorological Inputs Scalable Spatial and Temporal Storm Patterns 72-Hour Precipitation (inches) Hourly Precipitation (in) Dec 28, Jan 3, 1997 American River Watershed, CA TIME (hours) Total storm duration not limited to 72-hours Each of 33 sub-basins has a separate temporal pattern, scalable by the selected 72-hour basin-average precipitation MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 16
17 Stochastic Hydrometeorological Inputs Scalable Spatial and Temporal Storm Patterns 72-Hour Precipitation (inches) Hourly Precipitation (in) American River Watershed, CA 1. Feb 12-2, TIME (hours) 24 Prototype Temporal and Spatial Templates developed from historical storms observed on the watershed HOURLY PRECIPITATION (m mm) HOURLY PRECIPITATION (mm) Scaled Storm 72-Hour = 5-mm Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Mar 5-14, 1983 Strathcona Basin 5 mm 72 hour precipitation 1: 5, AEP TIME (Hours) Scaled dstorm 72-Hour = 5-mm Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Jan 13-23, TIME (Hours) Note Diversity: Temporal Patterns Multi Pulse Storms Max Intensities Storm Duration MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 17
18 HOURLY PRECIPI ITATION (mm) Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Oct 2-12, Scaled Storm Hour Maxima = 5-mm TIME (Hours) Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Nov 25- Dec 5, 1993 m) HOURLY PRECIPITATION (m 32 Scaled Storm Hour Maxima = 5-mm TIME (Hours) HOURLY PRECIP PITATION (mm) Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Nov 1-7, Scaled Storm Hour = 5-mm TIME (Hours) Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Nov 1-2, 29 HOURLY PRECIPITATION (m mm) 32 Scaled Storm Hour = 5-mm TIME (Hours) MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 18
19 HOURLY PRECIP ITATION (mm) HOURLY PRECIPITATION (m mm) Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Nov 11-21, Scaled Storm Hour = 5-mm TIME (Hours) Strathcona Basin Basin-Average Oct 14-22, Scaled Storm Hour = 5-mm TIME (Hours) Diversity of Storm Temporal Patterns Provides for Robust Assessment of Inflow Flood Characteristics and Reservoir Responses Summary SEFM provides a Hydrological Tool for Developing Flood-Frequency Frequency Relationships (Hydrologic Hazard Curves) for Flood Discharges, Runoff Volumes and Maximum Reservoir Level and for Assessing the Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) of Extreme Floods including IDFs and the PMF MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 19
20 SEFM Description and Examples End-of-Slides MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. 2
The Stochastic Event Flood Model Applied to Minidoka Dam on the Snake River, Idaho
The Stochastic Event Flood Model Applied to Minidoka Dam on the Snake River, Idaho K. L. Bullard 1, M. G. Schaeffer 2, B. A. Barker 3, D. Sutley 4, and V. Leverson 5 1 Bureau of Reclamation, Flood Hydrology
More information9. PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD
9. PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD 9.1. Introduction Due to the size of Watana Dam and the economic importance of the Project to the Railbelt, the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)
More informationFORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE
FORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE 255 237 237 237 217 217 217 200 200 200 0 163 131 Bridging the Gap163Conference 255 0 132 255 0 163 122 The Dana on Mission Bay San Diego, CA January 28,
More informationNRC Workshop - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Jan 2013
Regional Precipitation-Frequency Analysis And Extreme Storms Including PMP Current State of Understanding/Practice Mel Schaefer Ph.D. P.E. MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc. Olympia, WA NRC Workshop - Probabilistic
More informationStudy 16.5 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)
Initial Study Report Meeting Study 16.5 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) October 22, 2014 Prepared by 10/22/2014 1 Study 16.5 Objectives Develop a site-specific PMP to be used for the derivation of the PMF
More informationStochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam
US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam Appendix J - Analysis of Storms Antecedent and Posterior to Extreme Storms
More informationStudy 16.5 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)
Initial Study Report Meeting Study 16.5 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) March 30, 2016 Prepared by 3/30/2016 1 Study 16.5 Status ISR documents (ISR Part D Overview): Status: Initial Study Report: Parts A,
More informationStochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam
US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam Appendix F - Analysis of Air Temperature Profiles and Air Temperature
More informationStochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam
US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam Appendix E - Description of Stochastic Storm Resampling Approach and Selection
More informationIntegrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations
Integrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations California Extreme Precipitation Symposium September 6, 2016 Brad Moore, PE US Army Corps of Engineers Biography Brad Moore is a Lead Civil
More informationModeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan
Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan The Dworshak reservoir, a project operated by the Army Corps
More informationFolsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Joint Federal Project, Folsom Dam
Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Joint Federal Project, Folsom Dam Public Workshop May 28, 2015 Library Galleria 828 I Street, Sacramento, CA US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG WELCOME &
More informationImpacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse
Impacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse Martijn Booij University of Twente,, The Netherlands m.j.booij booij@utwente.nlnl 2003 in the Meuse basin Model appropriateness Appropriate model
More informationFolsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Joint Federal Project, Folsom Dam
Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Joint Federal Project, Folsom Dam Public Workshop May 25, 2016 Sacramento Library Galleria 828 I Street, Sacramento, CA US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG
More informationEvapo-transpiration Losses Produced by Irrigation in the Snake River Basin, Idaho
Nov 7, 2007 DRAFT Evapo-transpiration Losses Produced by Irrigation in the Snake River Basin, Idaho Wendell Tangborn and Birbal Rana HyMet Inc. Vashon Island, WA Abstract An estimated 8 MAF (million acre-feet)
More informationPRELIMINARY DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES
Memorandum To: David Thompson From: John Haapala CC: Dan McDonald Bob Montgomery Date: February 24, 2003 File #: 1003551 Re: Lake Wenatchee Historic Water Levels, Operation Model, and Flood Operation This
More informationWebinar and Weekly Summary February 15th, 2011
Webinar and Weekly Summary February 15th, 2011 -Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought Monitor Upper Colorado Normal Precipitation Upper Colorado
More informationINFLOW DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM PLAN 40 C.F.R. PART PLANT YATES ASH POND 2 (AP-2) GEORGIA POWER COMPANY
INFLOW DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM PLAN 40 C.F.R. PART 257.82 PLANT YATES ASH POND 2 (AP-2) GEORGIA POWER COMPANY EPA s Disposal of Coal Combustion Residuals from Electric Utilities Final Rule (40 C.F.R.
More informationClimate Change and Water Supply Research. Drought Response Workshop October 8, 2013
Climate Change and Water Supply Research Drought Response Workshop October 8, 2013 DWR Photo Oroville Reservoir, 2009 Talk Overview Expectations History Atmospheric Rivers and Water Supply Current Research
More informationStochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam
US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam Appendix D - Procedures Implemented for Conducting Storm Analyses in Support
More informationA Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center, CSU Mike Gillespie Snow Survey Division, USDA, NRCS Presented at the 28 th Annual AGU Hydrology Days, March 26, 2008,
More informationUSSD Conference, Denver 2016
USSD Conference, Denver 2016 M Schaefer, MGS Engineering Consultants K Neff, TVA River Operations C Jawdy, TVA River Operations S Carney, Riverside Technology B Barker, MGS Engineering Consultants G Taylor,
More informationMonte Carlo Simulations for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment
Monte Carlo Simulations for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Jemie Dababneh, Ph.D., P.E., 1 and Mark Schwartz, P.E. 1 1 RIZZO Associates, Monroeville, Pennsylvania Presentation to PSA 2017 International
More informationHydrologic Research Laboratory Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California, Davis
Physically-Based Estimation of Maximum Precipitation: Preliminary Results on Application to American River Basin for the December,1996-January,1997 Flood Event Hydrologic Research Laboratory Department
More information2015 Fall Conditions Report
2015 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: December 21 st, 2015 Table of Contents Table of Figures... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 2 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...
More informationREDWOOD VALLEY SUBAREA
Independent Science Review Panel Conceptual Model of Watershed Hydrology, Surface Water and Groundwater Interactions and Stream Ecology for the Russian River Watershed Appendices A-1 APPENDIX A A-2 REDWOOD
More informationFolsom Dam Water Control Manual Update
Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Public Workshop April 3, 2014 Location: Sterling Hotel Ballroom 1300 H Street, Sacramento US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG WELCOME & INTRODUCTIONS 2 BUILDING
More informationLower Tuolumne River Accretion (La Grange to Modesto) Estimated daily flows ( ) for the Operations Model Don Pedro Project Relicensing
Lower Tuolumne River Accretion (La Grange to Modesto) Estimated daily flows (1970-2010) for the Operations Model Don Pedro Project Relicensing 1.0 Objective Using available data, develop a daily time series
More informationENGINEERING HYDROLOGY
ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY Prof. Rajesh Bhagat Asst. Professor Civil Engineering Department Yeshwantrao Chavan College Of Engineering Nagpur B. E. (Civil Engg.) M. Tech. (Enviro. Engg.) GCOE, Amravati VNIT,
More informationThe Climate of Oregon Climate Zone 4 Northern Cascades
/05 E55 Unbound issue No. 9/ is Does not circulate Special Report 916 May 1993 The Climate of Oregon Climate Zone 4 Property of OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY Library Serials Corvallis, OR 97331-4503 Agricultural
More informationAttachment B to Technical Memorandum No.2. Operations Plan of Ross Valley Detention Basins
Attachment B to Technical Memorandum No.2 Operations Plan of Ross Valley Detention Basins Operations Plan of Ross Valley Detention Basins Stetson Engineers Inc. January 26, 2011 1.0 Introduction Achieving
More informationA High Elevation Climate Monitoring Network
A High Elevation Climate Monitoring Network Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada AGU San Francisco WRCC / OSU Nevada Precip-Elevation Distribution 100%
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management
Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Navigator s Meeting February 12, 2014 Bill Doan, P.E. Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING
More informationClimate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.
The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi
More information3.0 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY
3.0 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY 3.1 INTRODUCTION To enable seasonal storage and release of water from Lake Wenatchee, an impoundment structure would need to be constructed on the lake outlet channel. The structure
More informationAPPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationCFCAS project: Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions. Project Report II.
CFCAS project: Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions Project Report II. January 2004 Prepared by and CFCAS Project Team: University of Western Ontario Slobodan
More informationAssessment of the Hood River Delta Hood River, Oregon
Assessment of the Hood River Delta Hood River, Oregon Pacific Northwest Waterways Association Annual Meeting October 13, 2010 Michael McElwee, Executive Director Port of Hood River Overview U.S. Army Corps
More informationThree main areas of work:
Task 2: Climate Information 1 Task 2: Climate Information Three main areas of work: Collect historical and projected weather and climate data Conduct storm surge and wave modeling, sea-level rise (SLR)
More informationTalk Overview. Concepts. Climatology. Monitoring. Applications
Atmospheric Rivers Talk Overview Concepts Climatology Monitoring Applications Satellite View Where is the storm? Where is the impact? Atmospheric Rivers Plume or fire hose of tropical moisture Heavy precipitation
More informationWorkshop: Build a Basic HEC-HMS Model from Scratch
Workshop: Build a Basic HEC-HMS Model from Scratch This workshop is designed to help new users of HEC-HMS learn how to apply the software. Not all the capabilities in HEC-HMS are demonstrated in the workshop
More informationUnconventional Wisdom and the Effects of Dams on Downstream Coarse Sediment Supply. Byron Amerson, Jay Stallman, John Wooster, and Derek Booth
Unconventional Wisdom and the Effects of Dams on Downstream Coarse Sediment Supply 3 February 2009 Byron Amerson, Jay Stallman, John Wooster, and Derek Booth Sultan River, WA OBJECTIVE Consider the landscape
More informationMerced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model
Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model September 05, 2018 Marco Bell, Merced Irrigation District Bibek Joshi, Dewberry Objective Introduce HEC-RTS Benefits of MIDH2O
More informationSan Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hydrological Conditions Report For April 2014
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hydrological Conditions Report For April 2014 J. Chester, C. Graham, A. Mazurkiewicz, & M. Tsang, May 13, 2014 Snow in the High Country The view from Bond Pass
More informationA Synoptic Climatology of Heavy Precipitation Events in California
A Synoptic Climatology of Heavy Precipitation Events in California Alan Haynes Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support (HAS) Forecaster National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center
More informationPresented by Jerry A. Gomez, P.E. National Hydropower Association Northeast Regional Meeting - September 17, 2009
Presented by Jerry A. Gomez, P.E. National Hydropower Association Northeast Regional Meeting - September 17, 2009 Defining Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) PMP is the theoretically greatest depth of
More informationDisentangling Impacts of Climate & Land Use Changes on the Quantity & Quality of River Flows in Southern Ontario
Disentangling Impacts of Climate & Land Use Changes on the Quantity & Quality of River Flows in Southern Ontario by Trevor Dickinson & Ramesh Rudra, Water Resources Engineering University of Guelph Acknowledgements
More informationForecast Methods, Products, and Services for the San Joaquin River Basin. Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program
NOAA s s National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Forecast Methods, Products, and Services for the San Joaquin River Basin Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge Mission of NWS Hydrologic
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA ENGINEERING FEASIBILITY REPORT. Appendix B4. Probable Maximum Flood Study REP_Probable Maximum Flood Study
ENGINEERING FEASIBILITY REPORT Appendix B4 Probable Maximum Flood Study 14-02-REP_Probable Maximum Flood Study Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No. 14241 December
More informationProbable Maximum Precipitation Study
Probable Maximum Precipitation Study Virginia Floodplain Management Association Workshop Thursday, October 29, 2015 Robert T. Bennett, PE, RA, CFM DCR Dam Safety & Floodplain Management Definition (4VAC50-20-50.H)
More informationClimatic Change Implications for Hydrologic Systems in the Sierra Nevada
Climatic Change Implications for Hydrologic Systems in the Sierra Nevada Part Two: The HSPF Model: Basis For Watershed Yield Calculator Part two presents an an overview of why the hydrologic yield calculator
More informationHYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCES EVALUATIONS FOR SG. LUI WATERSHED
HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCES EVALUATIONS FOR SG. LUI WATERSHED 1.0 Introduction The Sg. Lui watershed is the upper part of Langat River Basin, in the state of Selangor which located approximately 20
More informationQuenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply
Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply Roger Bales, UC Merced Snow conditions Snow & climate change Research directions Sierra Nevada snow
More information2017 Fall Conditions Report
2017 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: November 15, 2017 Table of Contents TABLE OF FIGURES... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 4 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...
More informationTypical Hydrologic Period Report (Final)
(DELCORA) (Final) November 2015 (Updated April 2016) CSO Long-Term Control Plant Update REVISION CONTROL REV. NO. DATE ISSUED PREPARED BY DESCRIPTION OF CHANGES 1 4/26/16 Greeley and Hansen Pg. 1-3,
More informationWater Management for Environmental Restoration Flows In the Big Bend reach, Rio Grande Rio Bravo
University of California, Davis Department of Land, Air and Water Resources Water Management for Environmental Restoration Flows In the Big Bend reach, Rio Grande Rio Bravo 46 th Annual Meeting 8 9 March,
More informationUpdated 2018 Restoration Allocation & Default Flow Schedule February 16, 2018
Updated 2018 Restoration Allocation & Default Schedule February 16, 2018 Bureau of Reclamation 2800 Cottage Way, MP-170 Sacramento, California 95825 Introduction The following transmits the updated 2018
More informationUsing a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado
Using a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado Michael J. Mueller 1, Kelly Mahoney 2, Kathleen Holman 3, David Gochis 4 1 Cooperative
More informationHydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. FEBRUARY OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 23, 2018
Page 1 of 17 Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba FEBRUARY OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 23, 2018 Overview The February Outlook Report prepared by the Hydrologic
More informationBill Kappel. Doug Hultstrand. Applied Weather Associates
Cool-Season PMP/PMF Meteorological Time Series for Snow Melt Calculations Bill Kappel Senior Meteorologist/Vice President Doug Hultstrand Hydrometeorologist Applied Weather Associates www.appliedweatherassociates.com
More informationIllinois State Water Survey Division
Illinois State Water Survey Division SURFACE WATER SECTION SWS Miscellaneous Publication 108 SEDIMENT YIELD AND ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER CACHE RIVER by Misganaw Demissie Champaign, Illinois June 1989
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More information2016 Fall Conditions Report
2016 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: December 13, 2016 Table of Contents TABLE OF FIGURES... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 5 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...
More informationChiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
More informationACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION IN INCHES
CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION WATER YEAR COLUMBIA BASIN ABOVE GRAND COULEE 84% of Normal 1971- Average ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION IN INCHES 8 6 82% of Normal 85% of Normal 82% of Normal SNAKE RIVER BASIN ABOVE
More informationForecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Forecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center John Lhotak, Development and Operations Hydrologist Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Workshop May 16th, 2018 1 River Forecast Centers
More informationHyMet Company. Streamflow and Energy Generation Forecasting Model Columbia River Basin
HyMet Company Streamflow and Energy Generation Forecasting Model Columbia River Basin HyMet Inc. Courthouse Square 19001 Vashon Hwy SW Suite 201 Vashon Island, WA 98070 Phone: 206-463-1610 Columbia River
More informationWater Supply Forecast - THE DALLES http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/ws_forecasts.php?id=tdao3 Page 1 of 1 3/7/2013 Close Archive Data/Normals Rankings Adjustments Verification Verify All Years Help
More informationUsing PRISM Climate Grids and GIS for Extreme Precipitation Mapping
Using PRISM Climate Grids and GIS for Extreme Precipitation Mapping George H. Taylor, State Climatologist Oregon Climate Service 316 Strand Ag Hall Oregon State University Corvallis OR 97331-2209 Tel:
More informationCW3E Atmosphere River Update - Summary
CW3E Atmosphere River Update - Summary Two Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) made landfall over the Pacific Northwest over the previous four days These events combined to produce >400 mm of precipitation in southern
More informationSan Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hydrological Conditions Report For March 2016
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hydrological Conditions Report For March 2016 J. Chester, C. Graham, A. Mazurkiewicz, & M. Tsang, April 7, 2016 Snow Surveyor Chris Graham crossing Huckleberry
More informationA Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake
A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake Prepared by: Allan Chapman, MSc, PGeo Hydrologist, Chapman Geoscience Ltd., and Former Head, BC River Forecast Centre Victoria
More information2003 Moisture Outlook
2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water
More informationUpdated 2018 Restoration Allocation & Default Flow Schedule May 22, 2018
Updated 2018 Restoration Allocation & Default Schedule May 22, 2018 Bureau of Reclamation 2800 Cottage Way, MP-170 Sacramento, California 95825 Introduction The following transmits the updated 2018 Restoration
More informationAppendix D. Model Setup, Calibration, and Validation
. Model Setup, Calibration, and Validation Lower Grand River Watershed TMDL January 1 1. Model Selection and Setup The Loading Simulation Program in C++ (LSPC) was selected to address the modeling needs
More informationStochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam
US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Floods on the American River at Folsom Dam Appendix B - Precipitation Magnitude- Frequency Characteristics for the
More informationOperational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017 Mountain snowpack in the higher elevations has continued to increase over the last two weeks. Statewide, most low and mid elevation snow has melted so the basin
More informationNational Weather Service. Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge
National Weather Service Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge Goals Organization Role of the River Forecast Center Describe Forecast System & Tools Other Details NWS River Forecast Centers Northwest River
More informationThe general procedure for estimating 24-hour PMP includes the following steps:
14th Conference on Applied Climatology Abstract # 71520 Using PRISM Climate Grids and GIS for Extreme Precipitation Mapping George H. Taylor and Christopher Daly Oregon State University Corvallis Oregon
More informationClimate Change Impact Assessment on Indian Water Resources. Ashvin Gosain, Sandhya Rao, Debajit Basu Ray
Climate Change Impact Assessment on Indian Water Resources Ashvin Gosain, Sandhya Rao, Debajit Basu Ray Objectives of the Study To quantify the impact of the climate change on the water resources of the
More informationSection 4: Model Development and Application
Section 4: Model Development and Application The hydrologic model for the Wissahickon Act 167 study was built using GIS layers of land use, hydrologic soil groups, terrain and orthophotography. Within
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Mountain snowpack continues to maintain significant levels for mid-april. By late March, statewide snowpack had declined to 118 percent of normal after starting
More informationResults of Intensity-Duration- Frequency Analysis for Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate
Results of Intensity-Duration- Frequency Analysis for Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate Supporting Casco Bay Region Climate Change Adaptation RRAP Eugene Yan, Alissa Jared, Julia Pierce,
More informationLake Tahoe Watershed Model. Lessons Learned through the Model Development Process
Lake Tahoe Watershed Model Lessons Learned through the Model Development Process Presentation Outline Discussion of Project Objectives Model Configuration/Special Considerations Data and Research Integration
More informationMount St. Helens Project Cowlitz River Levee Systems 2009 Level of Flood Protection Update Summary
Mount St. Helens Project Cowlitz River Levee Systems 2009 Level of Flood Protection Update Summary Cowlitz River at Longview/Kelso, Washington February 4, 2010 Executive Summary USACE periodically updates
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationChanging Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
Changing Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed David Bosch USDA-ARS, Tifton, GA Jeff Arnold ARS Temple, TX and Peter Allen Baylor University, TX SEWRU Objectives 1. Project changes
More informationLecture 14: Floods. Key Questions
Lecture 14: Floods Key Questions 1. What is an upstream flood? 2. What is a downstream flood? 3. What were the setup conditions that cause floods? 4. What is a 100-year flood? 5. How are 100-year flood
More informationWater information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS
Water information system advances American River basin Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS Opportunities Unprecedented level of information from low-cost
More informationColorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
More informationGlobal Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook
Global Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER San Diego, CA 92130 http://www.hrcwater.org Initial Planning Meeting on the WMO HydroSOS, Entebbe, Uganda 26-28 September
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2017 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average contiguous
More informationInflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments. Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch
Inflow Forecasting for Hydro Catchments Ross Woods and Alistair McKerchar NIWA Christchurch Inflows Water flowing into hydro storages Usually measured by monitoring the levels and outflows from hydro storages
More informationFFGS Advances. Initial planning meeting, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar February, Eylon Shamir, Ph.D,
FFGS Advances Initial planning meeting, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar 26-28 February, 2018 Eylon Shamir, Ph.D, EShamir@hrcwater.org Hydrologic Research Center San Diego, California FFG System Enhancements The following
More informationSouris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018
Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2017 in the Saskatchewan portion
More informationSouris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019
Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2018 over the Saskatchewan portion
More informationBushkill Creek 3 rd Street Dam Removal Analysis
Bushkill Creek 3 rd Street Dam Removal Analysis HEC HMS Runoff and Routing Model Stephen Beavan, Melanie DeFazio, David Gold, Peter Mara and Dan Moran CE 421: Hydrology Fall 2010 December 15, 2010 Contents
More information