16 th RAV/TCC Meeting, Solomon Is Misaeli Funaki- RSMC Nadi

Transcription

1 16 th RAV/TCC Meeting, Solomon Is Misaeli Funaki- RSMC Nadi

2 2014/15 seasonal activities reviewed -Climate Indices - MJO..etc - Seasonal Review 2015/16 seasonal activities reviewed -Climate Indices - MJO..etc - Seasonal Review Observations(special cases/systems) Operational Issues. Recommendations.

3 Nov Dec Jan, Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Nov

4 /15 Numbered System Distribution # of TD's # named systems 12/09/ FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 4

5 Total of 17 sig TDs monitored. 6 TC 2 Hurricanes (1 CAT 4, 1 CAT 3) 1 Storm (CAT 2), 2 Gale (CAT 1). 4 originated east of Dateline 2 developed to the west of the Dateline, - 1 developed over Coral Sea and moved in our area. TC Raquel formed in RSMC Nadi, moved into TCWC Brisbane AOR, named by TCWC Brisbane and moved back into RSMC Nadi AOR. Highest intensity forecast:145kt(pam) Least intensity forecast: 35kt(Reuben) Interesting: TC Pam: broke the record of being the most intense 145 kts TC Pam: Strong extra-tropical system which survived for long TC Raquel: Developed in June, named in July... (First in history) TC Raquel jumping between borders

6 2014/15 TC ACTIVITY o Total of 17 sig TDs monitored. o 6 TC - 2 Hurricane (1 CAT 5, 1 CAT 3) o - 2 Storm (Cat 2) o - 2 Gale (Cat 1) o 1 developed over RSMC Nadi AOR, moved named by Brisbane TCWC. Highest intensity forecast- 145kts. -TC Pam. Tropical Cyclone - First Cyclone to form in late June 6

7 Papeete 5 Days :19/01 23/01 Max Mean : 55 knots

8 12/09/ Days :28/1 2/2 Max Mean : 75 knots FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 8

9 Max Mean : 145 knots 12/09/2016 FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 9

10 Handover: 12Z 14/3 Category 5 12/09/2016 FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 10

11 06Z 17/3 Category 3 12/09/2016 FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 11

12 12/09/ Days :19/3 22/3 Max Mean : 45 knots FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 12

13 4 Days :9/4 12/4 Max Mean : 55 knots 12/09/2016 FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 13

14 12/09/ Days :28/6 4/7 Max Mean : 35 knots FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 14

15 Name Dates Peak Intsty (kt) Cat Countries Affected 1. NIKO 19/01 23/01 55 knots 2 French Polynesia 2. OLA 28/1 2/2 75 knots 3 New Caledonia 3. PAM 6/3 14/3 145 knots 5 Solomon Is, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Kiribati*, Tuvalu* 4. REUBEN 19/3 22/3 45 knots 1 None Stayed over open waters b/w Tonga and Fiji 5. SOLO 9/4 12/4 55 knots 2 Southern Solomon Is, New Caledonia 6. RAQUEL 28/6 4/7 35 knots 1 None Stayed over open waters 15

16 Hovemoller Diagram: Enhanced/Suppressed Convection TC Pam

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18 Nov Dec Jan, Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

19 2014/15 TC ACTIVITY o Total of 17 sig TDs monitored. o 6 TC - 2 Hurricane (1 CAT 5, 1 CAT 3) o - 2 Storm (Cat 2) o - 2 Gale (Cat 1) o 1 developed over RSMC Nadi AOR, moved named by Brisbane TCWC. Highest intensity forecast- 145kts. -TC Pam. 19

20 Total of 18 sig TDs monitored. 8 TC - 5 Hurricanes (1 CAT5, 1 CAT4, 3 CAT3) -1 Storm (CAT 2) - Gale (CAT 1). 4 originated east of Dateline 4 developed to the west of the Dateline, - 1 developed over Coral Sea. Interesting: TC Winston: Most intense with post event sustained winds of 160kts. TC Winston: Vanuabalavu AWS observation - 120kts/ 165 kts. TC Winston affected Tonga twice. TC Tatiana: though it moved in RSMC Nadi AOR, TCWC Brisbane continued to provide the warning (RSMC Nadi monitoring TC Winston). TC Winston moved in TCWC Wellington AOR, RSMC Nadi maintained issuance of warning due to forecast for it to recurve.

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22 2014/15 TC ACTIVITY o Total of 17 sig TDs monitored. o 6 TC - 2 Hurricane (1 CAT 5, 1 CAT 3) o - 2 Storm (Cat 2) o - 2 Gale (Cat 1) o 1 developed over RSMC Nadi AOR, moved named by Brisbane TCWC. Highest intensity forecast- 145kts. -TC Pam. Tropical Cyclone - First Cyclone to form in late June 22

23 7 Days :24/11 30/11 Max Mean : 40 knots TC Formation: 12Z-28/11 Affected: Samoa, Niue

24 23 Days :24/12 14/01 Max Mean : 100 knots TC Formation: 06Z-30/12 Affected: Niue, Tonga, Fiji

25 12 Days :11/01 22/01 Max Mean : 100 knots TC Formation: 06Z-15/01 Affected: Cook Islands, Tonga

26 20 Days :06/02 25/02 Max Mean : 135 knots TC Formation: 00Z-11/02 Affected: Tonga, Fiji Though TC Winston went into TCWC Wellington s AOR, RSMC Nadi allowed to maintain issuance of warning because it was expected to re-curve back to Fiji.

27 Though it crossed the 160ºE, TCWC Brisbane monitored the system. RSMC monitoring TC Winston

28 5 Days :23/02 27/02 Max Mean : 40 knots TC Formation: 06Z-25/02 Affected: Tonga, Fiji

29 4 Days :04/04 07/04 Max Mean : 70 knots TC Formation: 12Z-04/04 Affected: Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga

30 10 Days :15/04 24/04 Max Mean : 80 knots TC Formation: 12Z-20/04 Affected: Fiji, Tuvalu, Samoa, American Samoa

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34 * At peak intensity Zenahad sustained winds estimated at about 90 kts. * The most intense rainfall was measured by GPM's radar (DPR) falling the amazing rate of almost 300 mm per hour * Global models: Pass through Tonga as a Cat 2 system. * High wind shear Disrupt Zena *Later stages, TC on paper not on ground due to Dvorak Constraint Q: In special instances, can we do away with paper rules(dvorak Constraints) and rely on ground observations?

35 1. Ula 2. Victor 3. Winston Affected Tonga twice 4. Amos Favourable conditions to sustain itself due to the relatively warm SST. Dead fish along the Coral Coast in Fiji prior to TC Winston formation.

36 System Monitor Named days monitored prior Tuni 24/11/ /11/ Ula 24/12/ /12/ Victor 11/01/ /01/ Winston 06/02/ /01/ Amos 15/04/ /04/ Lifespan Dvorak rule of normal development of 1 T No / Day, then system at the most have to be monitored at the most 3 day prior to TC formation. Systems live and sustain themselves on their own, not our rules

37 Active SPCZ means more system to monitor. Consequently makes monitoring drag on for more days

38 1. Increasing absence (number and quality) of surface and upper-air observations in the SW Pac region. 2. Significant increase of media (number and frequency) interest and coverage which our forecasters need to respond too, noting that they have little or no formal training. 3. Real-time dialogue and feedback to RSMC Nadi from NMHSs during TC events partnership in early warning and during events. Appreciation: -Tonga Winston, Ula. -Samoa/A.Samoa Tuni, Victor, Amos. -Niue Winston, Tuni, Victor, Ula. 4. Cross border understanding TC Winston(NZ) and TC Tatiana(Brisbane)

39 1. NMSs must upgrade their own synoptic obs network to required standards to support regional routine and severe weather forecasting needs. 2. Training workshops for forecasters on media skills is highly sought for forecasters now on the operational bench. 3. NMSs must engage in open dialogue as well as provide feedback to Nadi on ops matters during TC events Already but can improve further. 4.Capacity developing in SIDs through short attachments of personnel or formal exchange of skills/tools between SIDs and our developed counterparts. 5. WMO to consider introduction of ISO standards and competency for Tropical Cyclone Warning services. 6. More broad based research mechanics of TC and how it responds to its environment.

40 VINAKA