The East Asian summer monsoon and impact of snow cover over HTP
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1 中国气象科学研究院 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences ISSI meeting The East Asian summer monsoon and impact of snow cover over HTP Congwen Zhu Feb.2017 Bejing
2 Outline East Asian Summer Monsoon Seasonal cycle; Subseasonal and interannual variation Impact of Snow Cover over HTP Summary Open discussion 2
3 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 East Asian Summer Monsoon: Seasonal Cycle Seasonal cycle of air surface temperature (left) and rainfall (right). Google search
4 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 East Asian Summer Monsoon: Seasonal Cycle Boreal summer monsoon regions, following the definition by Wang et al. (2013)
5 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Google Zhu, C., W. Lee, H. Kang, and C. Park, 2005: A proper monsoon index for seasonal and interannual variations of the East Asian monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett.,32,L02811,doi: /2004GL
6 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 East Asian Summer Monsoon: Seasonal Cycle July April Oct. Jan. Zhu C., Zhou X J, Zhao P, et al, 2011: Onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon and rainy season in China. Sci China Earth Sci,54: , doi: /s
7 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 East Asian Summer Monsoon: Seasonal Cycle Zhu C., Zhou X J, Zhao P, et al, 2011: Onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon and rainy season in China. Sci China Earth Sci,54: , doi: /s
8 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 East Asian Summer Monsoon: Seasonal Cycle Zhu C., Zhou X J, Zhao P, et al, 2011: Onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon and rainy season in China. Sci China Earth Sci,54: , doi: /s
9 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Sub-seasonal Oscillation of EASM in Climatology Song, Zehao, Congwen Zhu, Jingzhi Su, and Boqi Liu, 2016: Coupling modes of climatological intraseasonal oscillation in the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 29 (17), DOI: /JCLI-D
10 Q1(SH+CO+RC,RC=LW+SW) c d Song et al. J.Climate,
11 Dominant modes of CISO in EASM Song et al. J.Climate,
12 Associated with activity of rain-belt Mode1: Enhanced MC, WPA, and SAH with triple pattern of rainfall pattern over Asia- Pacific region. Mode2: Eastward shift of MC, NWmoved WPA, and weakening of SAH, with dipole rainfall pattern. Song, Zehao, Congwen Zhu, Jingzhi Su, and Boqi Liu, 2016: Coupling modes of climatological intraseasonal oscillation in the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 29 (17), DOI: /JCLI-D
13 Coupling with air-sea interaction Song et al. J.Climate,
14 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Model simulation(echam5.4) Song Zehao, Congwen Zhu, Jingzhi Su, and Boqi Liu, 2016: Coupling modes of climatological intraseasonal oscillation in the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, DOI: /JCLI-D
15 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Impact factors of EASM & time scales Rossby wave Mid-high latitudes Cold air HTP impact Tropical circulation Warm air Hoskins,2013 Picture is provided by Dr. Sun Jianqi
16 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Impact of Global Warming Zhu, C., B. Wang, W. Qian, and B. Zhang, 2012: Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: A possible response to global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09701, doi: /2012gl
17 Interannual variation of EASM MV-EOF mode1 17
18 Vertical profile of EASM coupling mode 18
19 Coupling mode of EASM MC 100hPa SAH 200hPa MC HTP WNPSH Rain belt 850hPa 80 E 100 E 120 E 140 E 19
20 Impacts of HTP heating Wang, B., Q. Bao, B. Hoskins, G. Wu, and Y. Liu, 2008: Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14702, doi: /2008gl
21 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Impact of snow cover on EASM Via effect of 1. albedo; 2 hydrology Zhiguang Tang; Jian Wang; Hongyi Li; Lili Yan J.2013: Spatiotemporal changes of snow cover over the Tibetan plateau based on cloudremoved moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer fractional snow cover product from 2001 to Appl. Remote Sens.7(1): doi: /1.JRS
22 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Annual cycle of snow cover over HTP Tang et al., 2013: Journal of Applied Remote Sensing
23 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Trends of snow cover, interannual variation, and its correlation with temperature Tang et al., 2013: Journal of Applied Remote Sensing
24 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Tang et al., 2013: Journal of Applied Remote Sensing Pu and Xu., 2008: Theor Appl Climatol
25 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Senan et al., 2016: Impact of springtime Himalayan Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics
26 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Zhixiang Xiao and Anmin Duan, 2016: Impacts of Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, DOI:
27 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Fig.9a & Fig.10 Correlation of snow cover area proportion (SCAP) index in May with summer rainfall in China during Zhixiang Xiao and Anmin Duan, 2016: Impacts of Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, DOI:
28 中国气象科学研究院 气候系统 极地气象 研究所 沿 E平均 的垂直速度场的气压 纬度剖面 年高原5月积雪指数SCAP回归的夏季地表蒸散发 a, 单位 mm/day 整层积分水汽通量 b, 矢量, 单位 kg m-1 s-1 以及水汽通量散度 b, 阴影, 单位 10-5 kg s-1 m-2 矢量箭头表示通过95%的置信水平 Zhixiang Xiao and Anmin Duan, 2016: Impacts of Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, DOI:
29 Unstable relationship between snow depth & rainfall In contrast to Nino3 SST index, snow depth over the HTP region is not a good predictor used for seasonal rainfall forecast in EASM. 29
30 Summary The EASM is a combined system of subtropical, tropical monsoon. The abrupt enhanced summer rainfall is observed in April, mid-may, and Jun, corresponding to the timing of subtropical, SCS, and tropical monsoon onset; The coupling of MC, WPA, and SAH determines the interannual variability of EASM. Of which, the SAH is possibly linked to the snow cover over the HTP region; The impact of snow cover on the EASM is clear, but its joint impact with other factors (such as SST) is not clear. One season leading of EASM forecast requires a real-time, accurate snow products over the HTP region. While, how could we achieve this goal is a great challenge. 30
31 Open discussion Data quality of satellite-observed snow data because of the complex background over HTP. Yang, J., L. Jiang, C. B. M é nard, K. Luojus, J. Lemmetyinen, and J. Pulliainen, 2015: Evaluation of snow products over the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrol. Processes, 29, , doi: / hyp.10427
32 Open discussion Yang et al., 2015: Evaluation of snow products over the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrol. Process. DOI: /hyp.10427
33 Open discussion Which component of Snow data we should focus in our team? Yang et al., 2015: Evaluation of snow products over the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrol. Process. DOI: /hyp
34 Correlations of PC1 with detrend SSTA during Mongolian cyclone South Asian High Western Pacific Anticyclone 34
35 Ending remarks The HTP region is a very challenging area for all aspects of research on verification, model-dataset/satellite-dataset comparison, data assimilation (Gianpaolo in last ) Satellite observations provide spatially integrated measurements with global coverage which makes them of high interest to provide consistent snow information for climate and NWP (Rosnay et al., 2014). Snow cover has a small errors, in contrast other component? It is GREAT! if we focus on the WINTER (from 01 September 2015 to 31 May 2016) to conduct our study. A case may help us to evaluate the impact of snow on EASM, in contrast to the SST forcing ( Super El Nino/ ). 35
36 中国气象科学研究院气候系统 ( 极地气象 ) 研究所 Thank you very much!
37 References 1. Zhu, C., W. Lee, H. Kang, and C. Park, 2005: A proper monsoon index for seasonal and interannual variations of the East Asian monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett.,32,L02811,doi: /2004GL Pu, Z., L. Xu, and V. V. Salomonson, 2007: MODIS/Terra observed seasonal variations of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06706, doi: /2007gl Wang, B., Q. Bao, B. Hoskins, G. Wu, and Y. Liu, 2008: Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14702, doi: /2008gl Zhu C., Zhou X J, Zhao P, et al, 2011: Onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon and rainy season in China. Sci China Earth Sci,54: , doi: /s Zhiguang Tang; Jian Wang; Hongyi Li; Lili Yan J.2013: Spatiotemporal changes of snow cover over the Tibetan plateau based on cloud-removed moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer fractional snow cover product from 2001 to Appl. Remote Sens.7(1): doi: /1.JRS Yang, J., L. Jiang, C. B. M énard, K. Luojus, J. Lemmetyinen, and J. Pulliainen, 2015: Evaluation of snow products over the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrol. Processes, 29, , doi: / hyp Zhixiang Xiao and Anmin Duan, 2016: Impacts of Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, DOI: 37
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