2006 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report U.S. Naval Maritime Forecast Center/ Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

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1 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report U.S. Naval Maritime Forecast Center/ Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Composite MODIS true color image from the Aqua satellite of Super Typhoon C (Ioke) as it approaches Wake Island, taken on August,. Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. J. F. O'HARA Captain, United States Navy Commanding Officer ROBERT FALVEY Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force Director, Joint Typhoon Warning Center LT Aaron Lana, USN - Editor

2 EDITOR'S NOTE The ATCR has seen additional streamlining of the process due to manning issues from the previous years. Additional changes include introduction of the new Naval Maritime Forecast Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center logo and a multitude of recoding of website to increase loading speed. Again this year, we are including links to NRL and FNMOC as the sources of imagery for the related systems. We have also removed the pdf versions due to the scaled back nature of the individual system pages. To use the ATCR, expanding menus indicated by plus (+) and minus (-) signs in the frame on the left side of the screen permit easy navigation. Simply click any (+) sign to open a menu another level. Feedback is much appreciated and needed to create a product that will remain valuable in future years. Please the editor at the following link. ATCR Editor LT A. D. Lana, USN Editor, ATCR

3 . SUMMARY OF WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES This year's tropical cyclones are listed in Table -. Table - shows the monthly distribution of tropical cyclones for each year since and Table - shows the monthly average occurrence of tropical storms separated into: () typhoons only; and () tropical storms and typhoons. A summary of this year's Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts is shown in Table -. The annual number of tropical cyclones of tropical storm strength or higher appear in Figure -, while the number of super typhoons are shown in Figure -. Figure - illustrates a monthly breakdown of system formations based on intensity categories. Composites of the tropical cyclone best tracks for the Western North Pacific appear following Figure -. Table - WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR ( JAN - DEC ) TC NAME* PERIOD** WARNINGS ISSUED EST MAX SFC WINDS KTS MSLP (MB)*** TS W - MAR MAR TY W CHANCHU MAY - MAY TS W JELAWAT JUN - JUN STY W EWINIAR JUN - - JUL TS W BILIS JUL - JUL TY W KAEMI JUL - JUL TY W PRAPIROON JUL - AUG STY W SAOMAI AUG - AUG TS W MARIA AUG - AUG TS W BOPHA AUG - AUG TS W WUKONG AUG - AUG TS W SONAMU AUG - AUG TD W - AUG - AUG TY W SHANSHAN AUG - SEP TD W - SEP - SEP STY W YAGI SEP - SEP TS W - SEP - SEP TY W XANGSANE SEP - OCT TS W BEBINCA OCT - OCT TD W RUMBIA OCT - OCT TY W SOULIK OCT - OCT STY W CIMARON OCT - NOV

4 TY W CHEBI NOV - NOV STY W DURIAN NOV - DEC TY W UTOR DEC - DEC TD W TRAMI DEC - DEC STY C IOKE AUG - SEP * As Designated by RSMC Tokyo or CPHC ** Dates are based on the issuance of JTWC warnings on system. *** MSLP Converted from estimated maximum surface winds using Atkinson/Holliday wind-pressure relationship Table - DISTRIBUTION OF WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR - YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS

6 (-) MEAN CASES The criteria used in TABLE - are as follows: ) If a tropical cyclone was first warned on during the last two days of a particular month and continued into the next month for longer than two days, then that system was attributed to the second month. ) If a tropical cyclone was warned on prior to the last two days of a month, it was attributed to the first month, regardless of how long the system lasted. ) If a tropical cyclone began on the last day of the month and ended on the first day of the next month, that system was attributed to the first month. However, if a tropical cyclone began on the last day of the month and continued into the next month for only two days, then it was attributed to the second month. Table - Legend: Total month/year GTE knots (Typhoon) to knots (Tropical Storm) LTE knots (Tropical Depression) TABLE - WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPHOONS (-) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS MEAN CASES TYPHOONS (-) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS MEAN CASES TROPICAL STORMS AND TYPHOONS (-) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS

7 CASES TROPICAL STORMS AND TYPHOONS (-) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS MEAN TABLE - TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN FOR - YEAR INITIAL TCFAS TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH TCFAS TOTAL TROPICAL CYCLONES PROBABILITY OF TCFA WITHOUT WARNING* PROBABILITY OF TCFA BEFORE WARNING % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % (-) MEAN:....%.% CASES:

8 * Percentage of initial TCFAs not followed by warnings. Figure -. Tropical cyclones of tropical storm or greater intensity in the western North Pacific (-).

9 Figure -. Number of Western North Pacific super typhoons (-).

10 Figure -. Average monthly tropical cyclones of all strengths (-).

13 . NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES This year's North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are listed in Table -. The monthly distribution of tropical cyclones for each year since is shown in Table -. A composite of the tropical cyclone best tracks for the Northern Indian Ocean appears following Table -. Table - NORTH INDIAN OCEAN SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR ( JAN - DEC ) TC NAME PERIOD WARNINGS ISSUED EST MAX SFC WINDS KTS MSLP (MB)** A - JAN - JAN B MALA APR - APR B - JUL - JUL A MUKDA SEP - SEP B - SEP - SEP B* Total # * B ia a system that developed but was never warned upon. Table - DISTRIBUTION OF NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR - YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS

14 (-)

MEAN........... CASES The criteria used in TABLE - are as follows: ) If a tropical cyclone was first warned on during the last two days of a particular month and continued into the next month for

15 MEAN CASES The criteria used in TABLE - are as follows: ) If a tropical cyclone was first warned on during the last two days of a particular month and continued into the next month for longer than two days, then that system was attributed to the second month. ) If a tropical cyclone was warned on prior to the last two days of a month, it was attributed to the first month, regardless of how long the system lasted. ) If a tropical cyclone began on the last day of the month and ended on the first day of the next month, that system was attributed to the first month. However, if a tropical cyclone began on the last day of the month and continued into the next month for only two days, then it was attributed to the second month. Table - Legend: Total month/year GTE knots to knots LTE knots

16 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W First Poor: Z MAR First Fair: N/A First TCFA: Z MAR First Warning: Z MAR Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

17 TYPHOON (TY) W (CHANCHU) First Poor: Z MAY First Fair: Z MAY First TCFA: Z MAY First Warning: Z MAY Last Warning: Z MAY Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

18 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (JELAWAT) First Poor: Z JUN First Fair: Z JUN First TCFA: Z JUN First Warning: Z JUN Last Warning: Z JUN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

19 SUPER TYPHOON (STY) W (EWINIAR) First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z JUN First TCFA: Z JUN First Warning: Z JUN Last Warning: Z JUL Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

20 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (BILIS) First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z JUL First TCFA: Z JUL First Warning: Z JUL Last Warning: Z JUL Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

21 TYPHOON (TY) W (KAEMI) First Poor: Z JUL First Fair: Z JUL First TCFA: Z JUL First Warning: Z JUL Last Warning: Z JUL Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

22 TYPHOON (TY) W (PRAPIROON) First Poor: Z JUL First Fair: Z JUL First TCFA: Z JUL First Warning: Z JUL Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

23 SUPER TYPHOON (STY) W (SAOMAI) First Poor: Z AUG First Fair: Z AUG First TCFA: Z AUG First Warning: Z AUG Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

24 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (MARIA) First Poor: Z AUG First Fair: Z AUG First TCFA: Z AUG First Warning: Z AUG Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

25 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (BOPHA) First Poor: Z AUG First Fair: Z AUG First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z AUG Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

26 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (WUKONG) First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z AUG First TCFA: Z AUG First Warning: Z AUG Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

27 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (SONAMU) First Poor: Z AUG First Fair: N/A First TCFA: Z AUG First Warning: Z AUG Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

28 TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) W First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z AUG First TCFA: Z AUG First Warning: Z AUG Last Warning: Z AUG Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

29 TYPHOON (TY) W (SHANSHAN) First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: Z SEP First TCFA: Z SEP First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

30 TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) W First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: Z SEP First TCFA: Z SEP First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

31 SUPER TYPHOON (STY) W (YAGI) First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: Z SEP First TCFA: Z SEP First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

32 TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) W First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: N/A First TCFA: Z SEP First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

33 TYPHOON (TY) W (XANGSANE) First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z SEP First TCFA: Z SEP First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z OCT Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

34 TROPICAL STORM (TS) W (BEBINCA) First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: Z SEP First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z OCT Last Warning: Z OCT Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

35 TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) W (RUMBIA) First Poor: Z OCT First Fair: Z OCT First TCFA: Z OCT First Warning: Z OCT Last Warning: Z OCT Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts

36 TYPHOON (TY) W (SOULIK) First Poor: Z OCT First Fair: Z OCT First TCFA: Z OCT First Warning: Z OCT Last Warning: Z OCT Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

37 SUPER TYPHOON (STY) W (CIMARON) First Poor: Z OCT First Fair: Z OCT First TCFA: Z OCT First Warning: Z Last Warning: Z NOV Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings: *Named by WMO Designated RSMC

38 TYPHOON (TY) W (CHEBI) First Poor: Z NOV First Fair: Z NOV First TCFA: Z NOV First Warning: Z NOV Last Warning: Z NOV Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

39 SUPER TYPHOON (STY) W (DURIAN) First Poor: Z NOV First Fair: Z NOV First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z NOV Last Warning: Z DEC Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

40 TYPHOON (TY) W (UTOR) First Poor: Z DEC First Fair: Z DEC First TCFA: Z DEC First Warning: Z DEC Last Warning: Z Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

41 TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) W (TRAMI) First Poor: Z DEC First Fair: Z DEC First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z DEC Last Warning: Z Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts

42 SUPER TYPHOON (STY) C (IOKE) First Poor: CPHC First Fair: CPHC First TCFA: Z AUG First Warning: AUG Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

43 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) A First Poor: Z JAN First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z JAN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

44 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) B (MALA) First Poor: Z APR First Fair: Z APR First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z APR Last Warning: Z APR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

45 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) B First Poor: Z JUN First Fair: Z JUL First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z JUL Last Warning: Z JUL Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

46 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) A (MUKDA) First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: Z SEP First TCFA: Z SEP First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts

47 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) B First Poor: Z SEP First Fair: N/A First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z SEP Last Warning: Z SEP Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

48 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) B First Poor: Z OCT First Fair: Z OCT First TCFA: Z OCT First Warning: N/A Last Warning: N/A Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings: N/A

49 . SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES. GENERAL In accordance with CINCPACINST. (series), Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones are numbered sequentially from July through June to reflect the Southern Hemisphere tropical season. For warning message delineation, the Southern Hemisphere Area of Responsibility (AOR) is divided into two basins: the South Indian (west of East longitude) and the South Pacific Ocean (east of East longitude). The suffixes "S" (South Indian Ocean) and "P" (South Pacific Ocean) are appended to the tropical cyclone number to differentiate warnings for these basins. For this report, the Southern Hemisphere AOR is broken down into three sub-basins, reflecting primary cyclogenesis areas: South Indian (west of East longitude), Australia ( East longitude to East longitude), and South Pacific (east of East longitude).. SUMMARY Table - lists the significant tropical cyclones during the season and can be compared to the climatological mean presented in Table -. Table - compares this year's tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere sub-basins to previous years and climatology. Composites of the tropical cyclone best tracks for the Southern Hemisphere appear following Table -. Table - SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR ( JULY - JUNE ) TC NAME PERIOD WARNINGS ISSUED EST MAX SFC WINDS KTS MSLP (MB)** S - OCT - OCT S - NOV - NOV S BERTIE-ALVIN NOV - NOV

50 S - DEC - DEC S CLARE JAN - JAN P TAM JAN - JAN P URMIL JAN - JAN S DARYL JAN - JAN S BOLOETSE JAN - JAN P JIM JAN - FEB P VAIANU FEB - FEB S - FEB - FEB P KATE FEB - FEB S CARINA FEB - MAR S EMMA FEB - FEB S DIWA MAR - MAR P LARRY MAR - MAR P WATI MAR - MAR S FLOYD MAR - MAR S GLENDA MAR - MAR S HUBERT APR - APR S ELIA APR - APR P MONICA APR - APR Total# **MSLP Converted from estimated maximum surface winds using Atkinson/Holliday wind pressure relationship. Number of warnings issued includes Amended warnings. Table - DISTRIBUTION OF SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR - YEAR JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTALS - AVERAGE*

51 (-) MEAN CASES * (GRAY, ) The criteria used in TABLE - are as follows: ) If a tropical cyclone was first warned on during the last two days of a particular month and continued into the next month for longer than two days, then that system was attributed to the second month. ) If a tropical cyclone was warned on prior to the last two days of a month, it was attributed to the first month, regardless of how long the system lasted. ) If a tropical cyclone began on the last day of the month and ended on the first day of the next month, that system was attributed to the first month. However, if a tropical cyclone began on the last day of the month and continued into the next month for only two days, then it was attributed to the second month. Table - ANNUAL VARIATION OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES BY OCEAN BASIN - YEAR SOUTH INDIAN AUSTRALIAN SOUTH PACIFIC (WEST OF E) ( E - E) - AVERAGE* (EAST OF E) TOTAL.... -

52 - MEAN.... CASES *(Gray, )

54 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S First Poor: Z OCT First Fair: Z OCT First TCFA: Z OCT First Warning: Z OCT Last Warning: Z OCT Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

55 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S First Poor: Z NOV First Fair: N/A First TCFA: Z NOV First Warning: Z NOV Last Warning: Z NOV Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

56 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (BERTIE-ALVIN) First Poor: Z NOV First Fair: Z NOV First TCFA: Z NOV First Warning: Z NOV Last Warning: Z NOV Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

57 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S First Poor: Z DEC First Fair: Z DEC First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z DEC Last Warning: Z DEC Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

58 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (CLARE) First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z JAN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

59 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (TAM) First Poor: Z JAN First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z JAN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

60 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (URMIL) First Poor: Z JAN First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z JAN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

61 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (DARYL) First Poor: Z JAN First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z JAN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

62 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (BOLOETSE) First Poor: Z JAN First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z JAN Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

63 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (JIM) First Poor: Z JAN First Fair: Z JAN First TCFA: Z JAN First Warning: Z JAN Last Warning: Z FEB Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

64 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (VAIANU) First Poor: Z FEB First Fair: N/A First TCFA: Z FEB First Warning: Z FEB Last Warning: Z FEB Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

65 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S First Poor: Z FEB First Fair: Z FEB First TCFA: Z FEB First Warning: Z FEB Last Warning: Z FEB Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

66 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (KATE) First Poor: Z FEB First Fair: N/A First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z FEB Last Warning: Z FEB Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

67 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (CARINA) First Poor: Z FEB First Fair: Z FEB First TCFA: Z FEB First Warning: Z FEB Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

68 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (EMMA) First Poor: N/A First Fair: Z FEB First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z FEB Last Warning: Z FEB Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

69 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (DIWA) First Poor: Z MAR First Fair: Z MAR First TCFA: Z MAR First Warning: Z MAR Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

70 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (LARRY) First Poor: Z MAR First Fair: Z MAR First TCFA: Z MAR First Warning: Z MAR Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

71 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (WATI) First Poor: Z MAR First Fair: Z MAR First TCFA: Z MAR First Warning: Z MAR Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

72 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (FLOYD) First Poor: Z MAR First Fair: Z MAR First TCFA: Z MAR First Warning: Z MAR Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

73 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (GLENDA) First Poor: Z MAR First Fair: Z MAR First TCFA: Z MAR First Warning: Z MAR Last Warning: Z MAR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

74 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (HUBERT) First Poor: Z APR First Fair: Z APR First TCFA: Z APR First Warning: Z APR Last Warning: Z APR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

75 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) S (ELIA) First Poor: Z APR First Fair: Z APR First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z APR Last Warning: Z APR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

76 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) P (MONICA) First Poor: Z APR First Fair: Z APR First TCFA: N/A First Warning: Z APR Last Warning: Z APR Max Intensity: kts, gusts to kts Total Warnings:

77 . TROPICAL CYCLONE FIX DATA SEASON Tables - to - list the number of tropical cyclone center "fixes", or locations, made using satellite (visible, infrared, and microwave), radar, and synoptic data. Fixes made by the DOD tropical cyclone reconnaissance network sites are included in the tables as well as those fixes received from other sources (e.g., Japan Meteorological Agency, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and U.S. National Weather Service National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service). Table - lists the total fixes by basin. Table - WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN FIX SUMMARY FOR TC Name Satellite Radar Synoptic Total TS W - STY W Chanchu TS W Jelawat STY W Ewiniar TS W Bilis TY W Kaemi TY W Prapiroon STY W Saomai TS W Maria TS W Bopha TS W Wukong TS W Sonamu TD W - TY W Shanshan TD W - STY W yagi TS W - TY W Xangsane TS W Bebinca TS W Rumbia TY W Soulik STY W Cimaron TY W Chebi STY W Durian TY W Utor TD W Trami STY C Ioke

78 Percentage of Total Total.%.%.% Table - NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN FIX SUMMARY FOR TC Name Satellite Radar Synoptic Total TC A - TC B Mala TC B - TC A Mukda TC B - TC B - Percentage of Total Totals.%.% Table - SOUTH PACIFIC & SOUTH INDIAN FIX SUMMARY FOR TC Name Satellite Radar Synoptic Total TC S - TC S - TC S Bertie-Alvin TC S - TC S Clare TC P Tam TC P Urmil TC S Daryl TC S Boloetse TC P Jim TC P Vaianu TC S - TC P Kate TC S Carina TC S Emma TC S Diwa TC P Larry TC P Wati TC S Floyd TC S Glenda

79 TC S Hubert TC S Elia TC P Monica Precentage of Total Totals.%.%.% Table - FIXES BY OCEANIC BASIN FOR Oceanic Basin Total Fixes Northwest Pacific Northern Indian Ocean Southern Hemisphere Total. SUMMARY OF FORECAST VERIFICATION. ANNUAL FORECAST VERIFICATION

80 Verification of warning positions and intensities at initial, -, -, -, and -hour forecast periods are made against the final best track. The (scalar) track forecast, along-track and cross-track errors (illustrated in -) were calculated for each verifying JTWC forecast. These data, in addition to a detailed summary for each tropical cyclone, are included in this chapter. This section summarizes verification data this year and contrasts it with annual verification statistics from previous years. Figure -. Definition of cross-track error (XTE), along-track error (ATE), and forecast track error (FTE). In this example, the forecast position is ahead of and to the right of the verifying best track position. Therefore, the XTE is positive (to the right of the best track) and the ATE is positive (ahead or faster than the best track). Adapted from Tsui and Miller,... WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN Table - includes mean track, along-track and cross-track errors from, when JTWC was founded, until the present. Figure - shows mean track errors and a -year running mean of track errors at -, - and -hours since. Table - MEAN FORECAST TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC (TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM - YEAR (Notes) TY () TC () -HOUR -HOUR -HOUR CROSS TRACK () ALONG TRACK () TY () TC () CROSS TRACK () ALONG TRACK () TY () TC () CROSS TRACK () ALONG TRACK ()

81 * * * *

82 Averages (-). Track errors were calculated for typhoons when intensities were at least kts at warning times. Cross-track and along-track errors were adopted by the JTWC in. Right angle errors (used prior to ) were recomputed as cross-track errors after-the fact to extend the data base. See Figure - for the definitions of cross-track and along-track.. Mean forecast errors for all warned systems in Northwest Pacific. *Forecast positions north of degrees North latitude were not verified. ** statistics were recalculated to resolve earlier Along and Cross-Track discrepancies. Figure -. Mean track forecast error (nm) and -year running mean for, and hours for Western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones from -. Table - MEAN FORECAST TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM - YEAR (Notes) -HOUR -HOUR -HOUR Cases Track CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK Cases Track CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK Cases Track CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK

83 Averages (-)

84 Figure -. Mean track forecast error (nm) and -year running mean for, and hours for North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones from -. Table - MEAN FORECAST TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE (TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM - YEAR (Notes) -HOUR -HOUR -HOUR Cases Track CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK Cases Track CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK Cases Track CROSS TRACK ALONG TRACK Averages (-)

85 Figure -. Mean track forecast error (nm) and -year running mean for, and hours for Southern Hemisphere Ocean Tropical Cyclones from -.. TESTING AND RESULTS A comparison of selected techniques is included in Table - for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones, Table - for North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones, and Table - for Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones. For example, in Table - for the homogeneous comparison of the -hour mean forecast error between JTWC and CONW, cases were available. The average forecast error at hours was nm for CONW and nm for JTWC. The difference of nm is shown in the lower right. Due to computational round-off, differences are not always exact. Table - Error Statistics for Selected Objective Techniques Western North Pacific Ocean -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI -

86 AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI - - -

87 - - ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI ECMI GFNI

88 JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI - -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI - ECMI GFNI JGSI

89 JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI - -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI JTYI NGPI TCLI WBAI ECMI GFNI JGSI

90 JTYI NGPI TCLI - - WBAI - -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W AVNI JTWC CONW AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI JGSI NGPI - COWI EGRI - ECMI GFNI JGSI

91 NGPI HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CON W AVNI JTWC CONW AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI Table - Error Statistics for Selected Objective Techniques North Indian Ocean -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI JTWC

92 CONW - AFWI - AVNI COWI - EGRI ECMI GFNI - NGPI TCLI - WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI JTWC CONW - AFWI AVNI COWI - EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI - TCLI - WBAI

93 -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI JTWC CONW - AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI - - ECMI GFNI NGPI - TCLI - WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI COWI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI CONW AFWI AVNI - - COWI EGRI - ECMI

94 GFNI NGPI TCLI - - WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) CONW CONW AFWI AVNI EGRI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI AFWI AVNI - EGRI GFNI NGPI TCLI - - WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) CONW AVNI EGRI CONW AVNI EGRI Table - Error Statistics for Selected Objective Techniques Southern Hemisphere

95 -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI CONW - AFWI AVNI - EGRI - ECMI - GFNI - - NGPI - - TCLI WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI CONW - AFWI AVNI - EGRI ECMI GFNI - - NGPI - - TCLI

96 WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI JTWC CONW - AFWI AVNI - EGRI ECMI - GFNI - NGPI - TCLI WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI EGRI ECMI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI JTWC CONW - AFWI AVNI - EGRI ECMI - GFNI - - NGPI

97 - - TCLI WBAI - -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) JTWC CONW AFWI AVNI EGRI GFNI NGPI TCLI WBAI JTWC CONW - AFWI AVNI - EGRI GFNI - NGPI - TCLI WBAI -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) CONW AVNI EGRI GFNI NGPI CONW AVNI EGRI GFNI NGPI

98 -HOUR MEAN FORECAST ERROR (NM) CONW AVNI EGRI GFNI NGPI CONW AVNI EGRI GFNI NGPI

Table of Contents. Chapter 1 Operations at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center in 2006

Table of Contents. Chapter 1 Operations at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center in 2006 Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 20 06 TY SAOMAI (0608) 00 UTC, 10 Aug. 2006 Japan Meteorological lagency Table of Contents Introduction Page Chapter 1 Operations at the