Regional Precipitation and ET Patterns: Impacts on Agricultural Water Management

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2 Regional Precipitation and ET Patterns: Impacts on Agricultural Water Management Christopher H. Hay, PhD, PE Ag. and Biosystems Engineering South Dakota State University 23 November 2010 Photo: USDA-ARS

3 Precipitation has increased over the last two decades over much of South Dakota 2 Increase in Mean Annual Precipitation (in inches) compared to

4 James River was above flood stage for nearly 1-½ years 3

5 The James River Basin presents some unique challenges 4 World s longest un-navigable river Shallowest gradient river in North America

6 2010 spring flooding south of Huron, SD (20 Mar) Image: NASA EO

7 Spring flooding on the James River near Scotland (24 Jun) Image: NASA EO

8 Big Sioux River peaked in September

9 SD has had large areas of prevented planting acres 8 Data: USDA RMA

10 Interest in agricultural drainage in SD has increased at the same time that irrigation development continues Too much rain at the wrong time Increased commodity prices Increased land prices Photo: USDA-NRCS 9

11 Eastern SD lies in a transitional region from humid to semiarid conditions 10 Keim (2010)

12 Thus, SD is in a transition zone from demand to supply limitations on ET 11 M Jung et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2010) doi: /nature09396

13 Temperatures have generally increased in the region 12

14 Precipitation has increased over the northern plains/upper Midwest 13 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

15 There has been a significant regional trend in dew point over the period in SD Median trend 0.37 C/10 yrs Kendall's τ S 1132 p-value <

16 Row crops have altered the hydrologic cycle Adapted from Schaffer (2005) 15

17 This creates water management challenges and opportunities 16 Adapted from G. Sands

18 This talk focuses comparisons of precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns ET estimation Regional precipitation and ET patterns 17 Station precipitation and ET patterns and trends

19 Temperature and precipitation data used were from the US Historical Climatology Network Subset of the US Coop Observer Network (NOAA NWS) Stations selected based on period of record and percentage of missing values Extensive QA/QC for errors and bias M. J. Menne, C. N. Williams, Jr., and R. S. Vose, United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) Version 2 Serial Monthly Dataset. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Last updated June M. J. Menne, C. N. Williams, Jr., and R. S. Vose, United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Data. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Last updated June

20 Data from 100 stations were used for IA, MN, ND, and SD for Reference ET

21 ET estimation data and methods USHCN and SD AWDN daily data Hargreaves-Samani and ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation Aggregated into weekly, monthly, and annual sums Graphical analysis 20 Photo: Lameck Odhiambo

22 SD Automatic Weather Data Network stations 21

23 ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration Equation 22 ASCE-EWRI (2005)

24 Hargreaves-Samani equation R a calculated based on latitude and date Tends to underpredict under high wind conditions Tends to overpredict under high humidity conditions Recommended time step of 5 days or longer 23 Hargreaves and Samani (1985), Hargreaves and Allen (2003), and FAO 56 (Allen et al., 1998)

25 The Hargreaves-Samani equation performed reasonably well compared to the ASCE Standardized ET ref equation Daily ET Weekly ET 24 Brookings

26 Weekly reference ET estimate comparisons Station Ratio (HS/ASCE) RMSD (mm/wk) R 2 Beresford Bowdle Britton Brookings Dell Rapids Gettysburg Highmore Oak Lake Pierre Redfield South Shore Average

27 Crop coefficients to estimate actual ET Corn Soybean ET c = ET ref x K c 26 Non-growing season K c = 0.44 (Hay and Irmak, 2009)

28 Precipitation has increased in the last 2 decades over much of the eastern Dakotas, southern MN and eastern IA 27 Change in mean annual precipitation (inches) as compared to

29

30 Winter precipitation has also increased across the eastern Dakotas 29 Change in winter (DJF) precipitation (%) as compared to

31 Spring precipitation has increased across Iowa 30 Change in spring (MAM) precipitation (%) as compared to

32 Summer precipitation increases have helped extend the corn belt north and west 31 Change in summer (JJA) precipitation (%) as compared to

33 Large increases in fall precip. across the eastern Dakotas 32 Change in fall (SON) precipitation (%) as compared to

34 Increases in fall precipitation have been particularly dramatic 33

35 There has generally been a slight decline in reference ET 34 Change in mean annual reference ET (inches) as compared to

36 Growing season ET ref has been flat to a slight decline Change in growing season (May-Sep) reference ET (%) as compared to

37 Non-growing season ET ref has been flat 36 Change in non-growing season (Oct-Apr) reference ET (%) as compared to

38 Station analyses Example Station Aberdeen Northeast SD Annual precipitation and ET Average weekly P & ET corn (full water supply) over last 19 years and prior normal 37

39 38

40 39

41 40 40

42 41 41

43 Limitations and future needs Preliminary results based on exploratory analysis ET ref only validated for eastern SD No accounting for other factors influencing ET (other than empirically) Surface solar radiation Vapor pressure deficit Wind No soil moisture storage accounting Water excess/deficit Water limitations on actual ET 42 No accounting for snow water storage and melt

44 Recent work has suggested a declining global trend in actual terrestrial ET 43 M Jung et al. Nature 000, 1-4 (2010) doi: /nature09396

45 Precipitation is predicted to increase during the nongrowing season 44 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

46 Heavier, more intense precipitation is increasing 45 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

47 In summary, there has been a shift in precipitation patterns over the last few decades across the region Upward trend in precipitation, particularly outside the growing season Decline in evaporative demand (though slight) If climate model predictions hold, recent water management issues could persist in the future Questions?

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