Building a Weather-Ready Wisconsin

Transcription

1 National Weather Service Session: Building a Weather-Ready Wisconsin WEMA Conference October 11, 2017 Jeff Last National Weather Service Green Bay

2 Today s Presentation NWSChat in EM Operations The June 14 Tornado Outbreak The Wisconsin Weather Outlook: NWS Message Simplification and the Winter Ahead 2

3 NWSChat in Emergency Management Operations 3

4 NWSChat: What is It? NWSChat is an instant messaging system utilized by NWS operational staff to share critical weather information and expertise. Information is exchanged in real-time with media and emergency response community. 4

5 NWSChat: What is It? Participants in chat rooms are limited to: EM community Other government partners of NWS DOT, DNR, Public Works Member of electronic media (meteorologists) Communication officers Includes amateur radio county or state NC s 911/sheriff dispatch 5

6 NWSChat: What is It? NWS partners can use NWSChat as an efficient means of seeking clarification and enhancement to the communication stream originating from the NWS. 6

7 NWSChat: What is It? NWS personnel may provide more details on current or expected weather conditions that could affect a decision on issuing/cancelling a watch/warning/advisory. 8

8 NWSChat: What is It? Available via chat application or webpage. 9

9 NWSChat: What is It? Besides the capability to chat with NWS staff, the chat room streams real-time NWS products. 10

10 NWSChat: What is It? Products in the data stream: Severe weather/flood watches, warnings, and advisories Warning follow-up statements Winter weather watches, warnings, and advisories Storm reports Record weather reports Technical forecast discussions Special weather statements Short-term forecasts Storm Prediction Center outlooks and discussions 11

11 NWSChat: What is It? Each NWS office has a chat room. Participants can open up multiple rooms to monitor messages from any nearby office(s). In addition, NWS Green Bay has a separate EM Chat Room for EMs only. (NWS products issued by NWS Green Bay stream in the room, too.) 12

12 Participants: Who Can Join? EM community Other government partners of NWS DOT, DNR, Public Works Member of electronic media Communication officers Includes amateur radio county or state NC s 911/sheriff dispatch Account request approved by local NWS office warning coordination meteorologist. 13

13 Getting an Account About 50% of Wisconsin counties have accounts (and less than that actively log in) Sign up on the NWSChat website: 14

14 Two Methods to Connect PC application: Pidgin PC/Linux chat client Mac user? Use Adium Free! Webpage chat: NWSChat Live Web-based chat client for any browser/os 15

15 Pidgin 16

16 Pidgin 17

17 Pidgin 18

18 Pidgin 19

19 Pidgin 20

20 Pidgin 21

21 Web-Based Chat 22

22 NWSChat: Why Sign Up? Live stream of NWS weather products Chat with NWS staff and other EMs Send messages to media Monitor weather in nearby NWS areas Sign up on the NWSChat website: 23

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24 Events of 2017 June 14 Tornado Outbreak 25

25 2017 Tornadoes 26

26 June 14 Tornado Outbreak Ten tornadoes in east-central Wisconsin, all in the NWS Green Bay service area. Largest outbreak in NWS Green Bay area (tied with April 10, 2011) Most of the tornadoes occurred with line of thunderstorms (quasi-linear convective system QLCS) 27

27 June 14 Tornado Outbreak 28

28 Weather Maps 18,000 Feet 29

29 Weather Maps Surface 30

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31 Nichols Tornado Video by C.J. Montour Reflectivity Velocity 32

32 Takeaways QLCS tornadoes develop and move quickly Warning lead time is lower than supercell tornadoes All tornadoes were preceded by warnings Severe T-Storm Warnings contained Tornado Possible tag 33

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34 Winter Outlook 35

35 Winter Outlook #Winter Is Coming 36

36 Hazard Simplification Hazard simplification ( HazSimp ) is a term used by the NWS to explain the simplification of our suite of watch/warning/ advisory messages. The first step is the consolidation of winter weather messages. These Products Lake Effect Snow Watch Blizzard Watch Now Found Here Winter Storm Watch 37

37 Hazard Simplification Hazard simplification ( HazSimp ) is a term used by the NWS to explain the simplification of our suite of watch/warning/ advisory messages. The first step is the consolidation of winter weather messages. These Products Lake Effect Snow Watch Blizzard Watch Lake Effect Snow Advisory Freezing Rain Advisory Now Found Here Winter Storm Watch Winter Weather Advisory 38

38 Hazard Simplification Hazard simplification ( HazSimp ) is a term used by the NWS to explain the simplification of our suite of watch/warning/ advisory messages. The first step is the consolidation of winter weather messages. These Products Lake Effect Snow Watch Blizzard Watch Lake Effect Snow Advisory Freezing Rain Advisory Lake Effect Snow Warning Now Found Here Winter Storm Watch Winter Weather Advisory Winter Storm Warning Note: Snow Advisories became Winter Weather Advisories a couple years ago. 39

39 Hazard Simplification Winter weather messages have a new format, which highlight, upfront, the threat and potential impacts....watch/warning/advisory HEADLINE... * WHAT... (hazard, amount, wind/temp if applicable) * WHERE... (general area or county listing) * WHEN... (time frame of main impact) * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... (impacts, snow consistency, snowfall rates, and additional info) 40

40 Example Winter Storm Watch: Hazard Simplification...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow and strong northeast winds are possible. Total snowfall could exceed 6 inches by late Thursday night. Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph by late Thursday afternoon, which will create widespread blowing and drifting of the snow. * WHERE...Central and northeast Wisconsin. * WHEN...Thursday and Thursday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will make travel difficult. If you have holiday travel plans, closely monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service. PREPAREDNESS/PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means conditions are favorable for a hazardous winter storm. 41

41 Hazard Simplification What s next? In early 2018, flood messages will be reformatted into the What, Where, When format Flash Flood Watch consolidated into the Flood Watch 42

42 And Now the Outlook for this Winter and Beyond 43

43 Climate Patterns that Influence Wisconsin s Winter Weather Many factors, including sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and fluctuations in the difference in air pressure across the North Atlantic, have an influence on Wisconsin winters. El Niño/La Niña is one of those factors. 44

44 El Niño / La Niña Forecast El Niño La Niña 45

45 General La Niña Weather Impacts La Niña Weather Impacts Wet Dry Cold Wet Mild La Niña is the cool phase of a climate phenomenon that occurs over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. It is associated with a band of cool ocean water that develops in the eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures have an impact on position of the jet stream. 46

46 General La Niña Weather Impacts La Niña Weather Impacts There are shorter-duration factors that can influence the winter, too. Wet Cold Wet Dry Mild 47

47 Wisconsin USA H L North Atlantic Oscillation Europe Africa The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of air pressure between the permanent low-pressure system over Iceland (Icelandic Low) and permanent high-pressure system over the Azores (Azores High). Wisconsin USA L H Europe Africa Although it has a greater influence over Western Europe, the NAO has an impact on the weather over much of eastern North America, including Wisconsin: Positive NAO = Mild winter periods Negative NAO = Cold winter periods 48

48 What Does this Mean for Wisconsin? 49

49 Winter Outlook for Temperatures EC Weak La Niña forecast, so confidence in temp forecast is low. Equal chances across Wisconsin. 50

50 Winter Outlook for Precipitation A ~65% chance of precip at or above normal in the SE half of Wisconsin. Equal chances west. 51

51 Spring Outlook for 2018 Temperatures EC Equal chances across Wisconsin. 52

52 Spring Outlook for 2018 Precipitation A ~65% chance of precip at or above normal across state. 53

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54 Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors in Wisconsin 190 Ambassadors in Wisconsin 8 th in the Nation Is your EM Office an Ambassador, yet? Visit 55

55 Questions? NWS Duluth Carol Christenson NWS Twin Cities Todd Krause NWS Green Bay Jeff Last Green Bay NWS La Crosse Todd Shea NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan Tim Halbach