AgWeatherNet and WA Climate Nic Loyd Meteorologist and Associate in Research AgWeatherNet

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1 AgWeatherNet and WA Climate Nic Loyd Meteorologist and Associate in Research AgWeatherNet February 23, 2017 Lewis County WSU Extension; Chehalis, WA

2 AgWeatherNet Background WA Climate: Past, Present, and Future Summary/Questions

3 6 Different Jobs: Quality Assurance Analyst (Suspect Data ID, Replacement) Community Liaison (User Assistance, Media Interviews, News Releases) Climatologist (Historical Context of Weather/Climate Data - Summaries) Forecaster (Outlooks) Presenter (Talks/Posters) Researcher (Studies, Research Projects, etc.)

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5 AWN: Began as Public Agriculture Weather System (PAWS) weather stations and growing Updated every 15 min Captures microclimates

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7 Cooperation Researcher/Faculty AWN User/Grower Advisory Committees Goals: Improving production quality and yield Optimal resource use Reduction of anthropogenic impact

8 AWN is an interdisciplinary system/team Maintain scientific integrity-research/data Focused on applied systems Agriculture s Economic Impact: 17 billion $ (WA state, 2010)

9 Website: Mobile site access data- phone Measured Weather data (T, RH, etc.) Derived Fields (GDD, etc.) Decision Support System Tools/Publications

10 Surface (5 foot) Air Temperature ( F) Relative Humidity (%) Rainfall (Inches) Wind speed (mph)/direction Solar Radiation (W/m 2 ) Soil Temperature (8 depth) Air Pressure Leaf Wetness

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13 Set Alerts (Low Temperature) Push Technology Desired information arrives via or text Crop/Disease Models Powdery Mildew, Cold Hardiness, etc.

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15 Estimate yield loss due to water stress Reduce water use/increase yield

16 Weather Prediction

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19 Applications Beyond Agriculture WA Monthly Weather Summaries Weekly Outlooks Warnings: when critical conditions are expected (frost, pest and disease issues, etc.)

20 Synopsis of Expected Weather Highlight Key Parameters Air Temperature Precipitation Wind Any Extreme or Unusual Conditions

21 A Range of Data and Decision Support Resources

22 Weather Monitoring / Decision Support for Public Research/Academia Frost protection Irrigation Scheduling Monitoring and Predicting Crop Quality/Yield Spraying Disease/Pest Management GDD/Cold Hardiness Tools

23 From mid 2014 to mid 2016, WA Climate Division 4: +3.4 deg T anomaly 3 of the 5 warmest months (relative to normal) on record (1895) occurred in 2015 (Jan, Feb, Jun) Next warmest biennium: +2.5 deg for 2013 to 2015, and then +2.1 deg for Consistently warm (relative sense) up to November 2016 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: U.S. Time Series, Average Temperature, published February 2017, retrieved on February 20, 2017 from

24 7 6 Chehalis Region Recent Monthly Temperature Anomalies January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 Novembe 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 Temperature Anomaly (deg F) Month

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28 For Centralia (34.4 deg), the coldest Jan since 1980 Coldest Dec (2016) since 1990 Jan Coldest month since Dec 1990 Dec 2016 Monthly Max T: 48 deg (record low) (early 1900s) Jan 2017 Monthly Min T: 11 deg (tied - coldest since 1982) December/January 2016/2017 for WA Climate Division 4: -3.0 deg anomaly (32.6 deg); the coldest since 78/79 Dec Coldest month (relative to normal; -4.1 deg) since April 2011 (By contrast: Nov 2016 T anomaly was +5.1 deg; warmest since 1949; 3 rd warmest on record )

29 It has been cold for about 2 months The transition from abnormally warm to abnormally cold was rapid from Nov to Dec 2016 The very recent cold period is nothing like the recent warm period

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31 Shifting from: Slight odds of relatively cool/wet through early spring TO Modest odds of relatively warm/dry (hopefully not similar to mid 2014 through Nov 2016) Tools: Dynamical Models (NMME) Statistical Indicators (ENSO, SSTA) Trends etc.

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39 Former Weak La Niña is now ENSO neutral No clear signals into the spring Warmth, and perhaps dryness, likely to return by late spring or later in 2017 Next winter - uncertain: El Niño returns?

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41 Weather data available 177 sites across WA and OR Decision Support System Warmth may return Not as extreme as recent years

42 Questions and Comments are Welcome Nic Loyd Telephone Number: (509) Address: N. Bunn Road, Prosser, WA Thank you!

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