DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

Transcription

1 DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation Lamgando Conference Hall, Impala Hotel, ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, December 2006 Bradwell J. Garanganga SADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE e.mail: Website:

2 SADC Drought Monitoring Centre Responsible for monitoring and predicting of climatic extremes such as floods and droughts in a timely manner with respect to their intensity, geographical extent, duration and impact upon various socio-economic sectors and giving early warning for the formulation of appropriate strategies to combat their adverse effects thus contributing to minimizing their negative impacts.

3 Presentation Format 1. Introduction 2. History of the SADC DMC 3. Role of the SADC DMC 4. Tools / Products Climate monitoring Climate Prediction 5. Attachments/ Capacity building 6. Climate Outlook Fora, brief 7. Challenges & Opportunities 8. Planned activities 9. Summary

4 5.00 Location of SADC member countries 0.00 DRC Seychelles Tanzania Angola Namibia Botswana Zambia Malawi Mozambique Zimbabwe Mauritius South Africa Swaziland Lesotho

5 INTRODUCTION The Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an institution of Southern African Development Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states with well over 220 million inhabitants. The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, which often result in negative impacts such as land degradation The region is also susceptible to epidemiological diseases such as malaria and cholera that are influenced by climatic factors. Extreme climate variation impact negatively socioeconomic development of the Member States.

6 Droughts G ullies u s caused c a u s e d by b y C yclone y c n e E lin e induced Floods 12/12/ /12/

7 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC by African Gvts with WMO as Executing Agency. Together responsible for 22 countries of Eastern and Southern Africa Central objective to have regional approaches in mitigating adverse climate impacts to socioeconomic developments. Initial funding from UNDP Next funding from the Belgian Government, with a condition that SADC gradually takes over the funding of DMC Harare. Since April 2002, core activities are funded by SADC. However, programme activities are still being funded by cooperating partners:wmo, USAID, NOAA and others.

8 ROLE OF THE SADC DMC 1) OBJECTIVE To contribute to mitigation of adverse impacts of extreme climate variations on sustainable socioeconomic development. This is achieved through the monitoring of near real-time climatic trends and generating medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range climate outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6 months) timescales. These products are disseminated in timely manner to the communities of the sub-region principally through the NMHSs, regional organizations, and also directly through services to various users who include media agencies. Our products are readily available on our website: e.mail address is:

9 The provision of early warning for the formulation of appropriate strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate extremes affords greater opportunity to decisionmakers for development of prudent plans for mitigating the negative impacts on sustainable socio-economic development. Since, establishment, the center has played an important and central role in providing the sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warning on drought, floods and other extreme climate events

10 PRODUCT DISSEMINATION SADC NMHSs Data processing & archiving Techniques Development Environment Monitoring Angola Botswana Global Climate Centres SADC DMC Congo (DRC) Lesotho Malawi Mauritius ECMWF IRI UKMO NOAA BMRC WMO etc Product Generation & Dissemination Attachments Workshops Mozambique Namibia Seychelles South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

11 2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES Developing and archiving of global, regional and national quality controlled climate databanks Providing of climate monitoring, prediction and application services, Conducting training and capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate products Organizing the climate and malaria outlook forums for the SADC region, and Enhancing the interactions with the user through regional users workshops and application pilot projects.

12 CLIMATE INFORMATION Climate variability The basic driving mechanism of steady-state climate: solar radiation and the rotation of the earth The circulation patterns of the atmosphere in southern Africa Important for application in socio-economic sectors: extremes in climate states often lead to the dislocation of socio-economic developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc in the region from time to time. Climate Change The impacts of industrialization on climate system Important for application in socio-economic sectors

13 EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION Southern African region socioeconomic development is influenced by climate variability. The El Niño/southern Oscillation phenomenon has impacts on the region Trends in global climate change have implications in the region

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15 Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC Droughts /Floods Unprecedented crop failures Decimation of livestock Virtual collapse of industries since both water shortage and hydropower failures are frequently likely Incidences of epidemiological diseases Mass destruction of infrastructures: roads; bridges; houses, etc Widespread suffering with loss of livestock and crops

16 SADC DMC TOOLS The SADC DMC uses several tools to realize its objective and they are listed below: A 5 SOI for selected years SOI Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month SOI_1991/92 SOI_1997/98 SOI_1999/2000 SOI_2002/2003

17 30 Year Mean OND and JFM rainfall

18 Composite El Nino SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)

19 Composite La Nina SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)

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21 B C Pacific Basin SST (IRI)

22 D Selected Atmospheric Patterns Zonal wind Indian / Atlantic (IRI)

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24 PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS Inside this issue: El-Niño Update 2 Tropical cyclone formation 2 over Southern Africa SO I and SST anomalies 2 Mean rainfall for AMJ 3 Forecast details 4 Rainfall outlook map 4 SADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE P.O.BOX BE 150, BELVEDERE, HARARE, ZIMBABWE TEL/FAX: DMCGEN@DMC.CO.ZW WEB: Issue no. 05 OUTLOOK(APRIL JUNE 2003) 31 MARCH, 2003 Outlook Highlights Rainfall review over the SADC Normal to above normal rains region for 1 January-20 March 2003 over Seychelles. Rainfall performance improved across central Northern and eastern SADC and eastern SADC during the second part of expected to receive normal the rainfall season. Most of the rains occurred rainfall. during March associated mainly with the passage of tropical cyclone Japhet. Normal to below normal rainfall across the rest of the On the other hand, dry conditions persisted sub-region. over extreme southern and northeastern areas during much of the period with rainfall totals below 200 mm. The rest of the sub-region had rainfall totals ranging from 200 to above 600 mm. fig. 1. Standardised mean Southern Africa rainfall anomalies with SOI Rainfall Anomalies SOI Anomalies EL-NIÑO UP - DATE` Neutral condition most likely to follow Moderate El-Niñ0 conditions will continue through March-April Fig. 1 Rainfall total for 1 Jan 20 MAR SOI index maintained negative values but decrease to 1.2 in Feb 2003 Pictures above indicate flooding in Malawi and Mozambique-January 2003, food crisis in Lesotho - October 2002 Fig.2.Percentage of normal rainfall for 1 Jan 20 Mar The percentage of normal rainfall map shows that the bulk of the sub-region had normal rainfall, except the extreme southern and northeastern parts which had below normal conditions. (Fig. 2).

25 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS Significant rainfall deficits across the southern half of the SADC region. Countries mostly affected BY deficits were Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern half of Mozambique and South Africa.

26 October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: Most area had little rainfall. Country with the highest rainfall over this period (>150mm): DRC October circulation feature(s): ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure dominating southern parts.

27 November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: First dekad was quite dry. Northern half had some decent rains. Areas with the highest rainfall over this period(>150mm): Northern Malawi Seychelles & Southern Tanzania. Most of southern half experienced little rain. November circulation feature(s): Depression over Mozambique Channel and ITCZ active over the northern parts.

28 December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall Trend: Most areas had widespread rainfall, the s western sector had little rainfall. Countries with the highest rainfall over this period(>90mm): DRC, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe & Malawi. December circulation feature(s): Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ over the North and central part and middle level high-pressure system over the south/southwest.

29 OND TOTALS Overall, most of the SADC region experienced largely normal rains during the OND However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk of central South Africa, had well belownormal rainfall, less than 65%. Greater than 125 % was observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique, northeastern coast of Tanzania.

30 Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for selected stations in the SADC Rainfall was well below normal from October to December for Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, Maun in Botswana, Queensland in South Africa.

31 Parts of Malawi and north Mozambique had rains picking up sharply in Dec 2004

32 Rainfall was well below normal from October to December in DRC & Tanzania also.

33 CLIMATE PREDICTION Prediction of future state of Atmosphere Understanding the physics of the atmosphere Using computer models (high power) Important for application in socio-economic sectors Basic approaches Analogue, Statistical and Dynamical

34 Prediction What do we need to know to make a good prediction? the current state (initial conditions) how the current state will evolve

35 Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve El Niño Normal La Niña Boreal winter Boreal spring

36 Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans (but primarily in the tropics) can affect the overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling the air and affecting the amount of atmospheric moisture. Since these sea temperatures change fairly slowly, and can themselves be predicted, an influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated up to a few months in advance.

37 Communicating Uncertainty Uncertainty is indicated by the probability that rainfall will be within a specified range. Uncertainty is high when the probability is high and the range is narrow.

38 HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA

39 Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the region 1 DJF SEASON 20 70% 10 Value YEAR REG1 FORECAST

40 SADC SEASONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK DJF

41 MODEL DJF ANOVA MR (%) R 2 (%) F- RATIO REGION P REGION REGION

42 DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria Outlook REGIONS I,VII & IX HAS HIGH %GE OF EXCEEDING 75%NTILE MAP1: Probabilities of Wet MAP1: Probabilities of Wet

43 DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook REGIONS II-VI & VIII HAVE HIGH PROB OF DRY INCIDENCES MAP2: Probabilities of Dry MAP2: Probabilities of Dry

44 OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK

45 OND 2005 VERIFICATION

46 JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK

47 JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION

48 ATTACHMENT PROGRAMME The DMC has over the years hosted many scientists from mostly the subregion. It has also facilitated secondment of scientists to other global centres. Typically the scientists are hosted for a period of six months at a time at the DMC. Training SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' (NMHSs) staff on attachment at the DMC through guidance in conducting research in climate monitoring and prediction techniques. After undergoing the training, scientists in prediction and producing climate bulletins, they return to their countries to share their new skills with other colleagues.

49 3. CAPACITY BUILDING In addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on attachment DMC with assistance from other scientists, develop climate monitoring and prediction techniques for developing Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) products. Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through capacity 1-2 week building workshops and SARCOF. Strengthening links with users from sectors such as health, food security (early warning systems), water resources management, media, tourism industry, etc.

50 The aim of the pre-sarcof capacity building workshops is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in generating climate outlook products at national level. User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources) have been incorporated into the process so as to enhance the effective dissemination and application of climate monitoring and prediction information, and to create good working relations between the climate scientists and the various weather-sensitive sectors. Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9 pre-sarcof capacity building workshops, including two media water resources and livestock workshops. In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting system are identified from previous experiences and attempts are made to address already recognised weaknesses.

51 4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa Climate Outlook forums (SARCOF), To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook form for the SADC region. Create a platform for interaction between the users and the climate scientists to enhance the application of meteorology to the reduction of climate related risks to food security, water resources and health for sustainable socio-economic development in the SADC region

52 The SARCOF Process CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP CONSENSUS MEETING Aug - Sept Sept In Addition User (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and Disaster) Workshops

53 Verification of SARCOF Verification of SARCOF The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22%. For January to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54%. A good model evaluated over a period of more than ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0% The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook therefore was useful as its skill scores were within the skill score ranges of a good model.

54 This will immensely benefit users of climate services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and institutions from both public and private sectors.

55 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Inadequate infrastructure and appropriate capacity (human and equipment), Lack of coordination and communication between meteorologists and various users group, Limited communication opportunities between countries, and Unavailability of advanced technologies.

56 Challenges and Opportunities Climate Monitoring and Prediction Consultation with end users Improved delivery systems Training in the use of information Incorporating user feedback

57 Challenges and Opportunities Climate Monitoring and Prediction Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts Increased reliability Spatial scale Temporal scale

58 PLANNED ACTIVITIES The DMC will continue to build on the successes it made in climate analysis and prediction, and strive to improve areas of its weakness. It will empower regional experts involved in climate diagnosis and prediction through on-the-job training, workshops and secondment of these experts to advanced climate centres overseas. This will result in, among other things: research focused on long-lead seasonal climate predictability in order to systematically produce useful forecasts; and effective use of these experimental forecasts by scientists from participating countries in order to meet their particular social and economic needs.

59 SUMMARY Climate extremes have profound impacts in SADC DMC has contributed to the understanding of these extreme variations in SADC through consistent climate monitoring. DMC generates and disseminates important prediction products. These products are important in providing early warning for mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in weather and climate. There are still challenges: inadequate resources. DMC have contributed to building capacity in SADC for climate prediction and applications through Climate outlook Forums.

60 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!