Major Winter Storm to impact Western Washington. 17 January 2012 National Weather Service Seattle/Tacoma

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1 Major Winter Storm to impact Western Washington 17 January 2012 National Weather Service Seattle/Tacoma

2 Current Warnings Winter Storm Warning for all of Western Washington, except: Northwest interior Extreme SW Washington Avalanche Warning for the mountains High going to Extreme tomorrow Main points regarding forecast: Widespread major impact Higher confidence always a few surprises

3 Overview Today (lull?) Cold westerly flow with gradually decreasing snow showers (locally mixed with rain near the water); locally heavy near PSCZ Falling temperatures to freezing or below Snow continuing in the mountains Much colder air will begin to impact northwest interior; increasing wind Whatcom County (15-25 mph) late afternoon Impacts 1-3 inches higher hills with heavier amounts near Puget Sound Convergence Zone some accumulation on roads Heavy to moderate mountain snow with increasing avalanche danger

4 Radar

5 Satellite Imagery

6 This evening Shower activity stops Surface winds become northerly Temperatures remaining below freezing most areas Increasing outflow western Whatcom and San Juan counties Impacts Icing of roads Bitterly cold wind chill western Whatcom County and San Juans with some blowing and drifting snow Freezing spray northern inland waters

7 Overview Wednesday Pacific storm moves into western Washington and briefly stalls before sliding east Snow increasing and spreading from South to North early morning hours Widespread and significant snow Possible transition to rain or freezing rain Olympia south Extreme outflow with gusts to 50 mph Whatcom and San Juan Counties Uncertainty associated with: How far north heavy snow will spread? When, where, and IF there will be a transition to rain or freezing rain?

8 Snow totals for Wednesday Mountains Cascades 1 to 4 feet inches Olympics 10 to 18 inches Light Snow & Wind mph, Gusts to 50 mph Snow 2-5 Mtn. Snow Lowlands Metro areas (Tacoma- Seattle-Everett) 5-10 inches Strait 5-10 inches Snow 2-5 ` Mtn. Snow Heavy Snow 5-10 Coast 2 5 north 6 14 central North Interior 2 5 (Windy blowing and drifting) SW Interior 6 14 inches and freezing rain threat (1/4 inches) Heavy Snow 6-14 Some potential for ice accumulation midday Wednesday Mtn. Snow 24-48

9 Snow Timing for Wednesday

10 Storm Impacts Wednesday Transportation major Interstates will be hazardous Secondary roads treacherous to impassable Extreme wind chill temperatures (around 0 F) with blowing and drifting snow -- Whatcom and San Juan counties Aviation hazards likely resulting in flight delays and cancellations Mountains Extreme conditions; closures for avalanche control Marine areas Gale force winds most waters and freezing spray northern inland waters Power Power outages from downed lines Snow loading on structures

11 Wednesday evening Snow tapering off and ending except far south Temperatures from upper teens to mid 30s Outflow gradually weakening

12 THURSDAY Thursday and Friday Another system, but weaker, moves into southwest Washington with increasing snow (several inches) south sound; freezing rain threat Temperatures remaining in the 30s (except 20s northwest interior) FRIDAY Warming begins Increasing rain late and into Saturday Small stream and urban flooding risk Clean drains of snow and ice! Avalanche danger continues

13 Summary comments Every indication that this will be a major storm with widespread impacts Discretionary activities are discouraged There are remaining uncertainties Rain/freezing rain; snow amounts Stay tuned for latest adjustments Slides will be ed shortly We will be holding another call tomorrow

14 Resources weather.gov/seattle/ NWS Seattle web site Area Forecast Discussions (Text and new Graphical) Doppler weather radar and satellite imagery loops Latest forecasts and warning statements nwac.us Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center wsdot.wa.gov Washington State Dept. of Transportation

15 Questions? Thank you for attending Will this slide set shortly Online briefing Tomorrow

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