Minimum%Wage%Rate,%2004%to%2021:%$/hour%

Transcription

1 $14.00%% Minimum%Wage%Rate,%2004%to%2021:%$/hour% $13.00%% $12.00%% $11.00%% $10.00%% $9.00%% $8.00%% $7.00%% $6.00%% 2004% 2005% 2006% 2007% 2008% 2009% Senate Bill /1 $********** /2 $********** $******* $******* $******* $******* $******* $******* % 2011% 2012% 2013% 2014% 2015% 2016/1% 2016/2% 2017% 2018% 2019% 2020% 2021% 2022% Net0Impact:0$/hour 2017 $ $ $ $ $ $2.60

2 Increase in Cash Costs Due to Increased Minimum Wage Rate, 4.5 ton/acre sweet cherry orchard Dollars/Acre $800## $700## $600## $500## $400## $300## $200## $100## $0## 2017# 2018# 2019# 2020# 2021# 2022# Full#Increase#of#New#Wage#Rate#with#OneBHalf#Increase#for#Harvest#Costs# Full#Increase#of#New#Wage#Rate#for#all#Labor#

3 Financial Position FIVE Key Financial Ratios and Performance Measures 1. Current Ratio (Working Capital) Current Assets Current Liabilities (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) 2. Debt-to-Asset Ratio Total Liabilities / Total Assets 3. Return on Assets Net farm income + Farm interest expense Owner withdrawals Average total farm assets 4. Profit Margin Net Farm Earnings Value of Farm Production 5. Term Debt to EBITDA Long Term Loan Payments Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization Expenses

4 Financial Position Tree Fruit Producers with Gross Revenues of > $2m Upper Quar)le Median Lower Quar)le Current Debt-to- Return Profit Term Debt Ratio Asset Ratio on Assets Margin to EBITDA > 6% 2%- 6% < 1% 32.13% 18.67% 2.75% > 350% % > 600% Information provided by Northwest Farm Credit Services, Craig Shindler, Branch Manager, Sunnyside, WA.

5 Financial Position Impacts on Current Ratio and Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Increase in Minimum Wage Rates 30$ 25$ 20$ 15$ 10$ 5$ 0$!5$!10$ 2017$ 2018$ 2019$ 2020$ 2021$ 2022$ Current$Ra3o$ Debt!to!Asset$Ra3o$

6 Financial Position Impacts on Current Ratio and Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Increase in Minimum Wage Rates w/ 5% Increase in Price in 2020, 2021 & $ 25$ 20$ 15$ 10$ 5$ 0$!5$!10$ 2017$ 2018$ 2019$ 2020$ 2021$ 2022$ Current$Ra3o$ Debt!to!Asset$Ra3o$

7 Financial Position Impacts on Current Ratio and Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Increase in Minimum Wage Rates w/ 8%, 30% & 35% Increase in Yields in 2020, 2021 & 2022, respectively. 30$ 25$ 20$ 15$ 10$ 5$ 0$!5$!10$ 2017$ 2018$ 2019$ 2020$ 2021$ 2022$ Current$Ra3o$ Debt!to!Asset$Ra3o$

8 Open the Door for Discussions.! Technology mechanical harvesting for stemfree/less cherries! Build a 5-Year Business Plan, with an Exit Strategy Weather Variability (climate change) - Protective cover over cherry blocks!

9 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Accumulated Growing Degree Days (Base 50 F) Pendleton F Modeled Historic Baseline ( ) Modeled Low Future ( ) Modeled High Future ( ) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov By the 2030s, accumulated growing degree days from April 1 to October 31 is expected to increase by 525 degree hours for the low emissions future and by 620 degree hours for the high emissions future compared with the historical baseline.

10 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Maximum Temperature Pendleton F Modeled Historic Baseline ( ) Modeled Low Future ( ) Modeled High Future ( ) J F M A M J J A S O N D By the 2030s, maximum temperature is expected to increase during all months by 2.1 to 4 F for the low emissions future and by 2.4 to 4.2 F for the high emissions future depending on the month compared with the historical baseline.

11 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Number of Warm Nights per Year (exceeding 68 F) Pendleton Number Modeled Historic Baseline Modeled Low Future Modeled High Future By the 2030s, the frequency of warm nights per year exceeding 68 F is expected to increase by 4 nights for the low emissions future and by 6 nights for the high emissions future compared with the historical baseline.

12 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Number of Heat Waves per Year Pendleton Number Modeled Historic Baseline Modeled Low Future Modeled High Future By the 2030s, the frequency of heat wave events (3+ consecutive days above 95 F) per year is expected to increase by 1.6 occurrences for the low emissions future and by 1.8 occurrences for the high emissions future compared with the historical baseline.

13 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston F Modeled Historic Baseline ( ) Modeled Low Future ( ) Modeled High Future ( ) Minimum Temperature Pendleton J F M A M J J A S O N D By the 2030s, minimum temperature is expected to increase during all months by 1.9 to 3.2 F for the low emissions future and by 2.3 to 4 F for the high emissions future depending on the month compared with the historical baseline.

14 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Number of Nights Below Freezing per Year Pendleton Number Modeled Historic Baseline Modeled Low Future Modeled High Future By the 2030s, the frequency of nights below freezing per year is expected to decrease by 29 nights for the low emissions future and by 34 nights for the high emissions future compared with the historical baseline.

15 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Number of Cold Snaps (3+ consecutive days below 0 F) per 30 Years Pendleton Number Modeled Historic Baseline Modeled Low Future Modeled High Future By the 2030s, the frequency of cold snaps (3+ consecutive days below 0 F) in a 30 year period is expected to decrease by 1 occurrences for the low emissions future and by 2 occurrences for the high emissions future compared with the historical baseline.

16 Climate Models for Eastern Oregon, base weather station is Hermiston Precipitation Pendleton Inches J F M A M J J A S O N D Modeled baseline is averaged over Modeled future is averaged over for a high and low emissions scenario. Solid line shows the average and shading shows the 5 95th percentile range of 20 climate models.

17 h/p:// h/p://appliedecon.oregonstate.edu/appliedecon/student- engaged- business- assessment- program