Tropical Waves. John Cangialosi and Lixion Avila National Hurricane Center. WMO Region IV Tropical Cyclone Workshop

Transcription

1 Tropical Waves John Cangialosi and Lixion Avila National Hurricane Center WMO Region IV Tropical Cyclone Workshop

2 Outline Basic definition Schematic diagrams/interactions Operational products/forecasts Tools for tracking Exercise

3 What are tropical waves? * Perturbations / disturbances in the tropical easterlies that typically move from east to west. * Often seen as inverted troughs of low pressure (inverted-v pattern in satellite imagery). Significant rain producers. * Convection typically on the east side. Subsidence/clearing on the west side. * Convection highly modulated by atmospheric moisture, upper level features, topography, etc. * Develop into tropical cyclones. * Around 60 tracked per year (little annual variability)

4 How/where they form Generated by an instability (baroclinic-barotropic)of the African easterly jet Jet arises as a result of reversed lower tropospheric temperature gradient over west-central north Africa due to extremely warm temperatures over the Sahara Desert and substantially cooler temperatures along the coast of Guinea. Sahara Desert ~ 45 C African Easterly Jet near the Gulf of Guinea ~ 22 C

5 Typical Synoptic Setup Tropical waves/african easterly waves move westward within the trade wind flow south of the Bermuda-Azores high

6 Frequency by month Tropical Waves tracked by NHC Tropical wave activity in terms of numbers is highest June-August

7 Schematic diagrams Classic inverted V-shape near the eastern Caribbean

8 Schematic diagram

9 Do waves tilt with height? At what pressure level is the maximum amplitude?

10 Schematic diagram Notice eastward slope will height Maximum amplitude is around 700 mb

11 * wavelength of about 2000 km * period of 3 to 4 days. * typically move westward at 10 to 15 kt Stratocumulus

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13 Waves in Westerly Shear Clouds/rain displaced to the east of the wave axis

14 Waves in Easterly Shear Clouds/rain displaced to the west of the wave axis H

15 What happens when tropical waves interact with upper-level lows and troughs?

16 Although interaction with upper-level lows are unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis, it can often induce heavy rainfall.

17 Sep 9 12z Sea-breeze convergence, upslope flows, and afternoon heating can cause convection to become chaotic and difficult to predict. Sep 10 00z

18 Saharan Air Layer Very dry/warm air in the low-mid levels of the atmosphere limits convection.

19 Saharan Air Layer Tool to help track the strength and position of the SAL

20 NHC Products

21 TAFB products: Surface Analysis Analyze current positions

22 TAFB products: Tropical Weather Discussion Discussion of tropical waves

23 TAFB products: graphical forecast Predict future positions: 24h, 48h, and 72h

24 Tropical Weather Outlook Approximately 60 % of Atlantic tropical cyclones and 85 % of major hurricanes originate from tropical waves

25 What is more important for tropical cyclogenesis? (a) the wave structure (b) the environment

26 Developing vs. Non-developing Relative Vorticity Relative Vorticity Relative Humidity Relative Humidity Very little different in structure between developing and non-developing waves Hopsch, Thorncroft, and Tyle(2009)

27 Tools to track tropical waves

28 Satellite Imagery

29 Satellite Hovmoller Diagrams Aug 26 Aug 27 Time Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sep 1

30 Greg 4

31 Surface Observations Up to 4 mbpressure falls associated with a strong wave

32 Scatterometer

33 Total Precipitable Water

34 Wave Splitting The northern portion of the wave often fractures but the southern extension continues moving westward

35 Upper-Air Time Sections Dakar Sal

36 Models Relative vorticity Streamlines Moisture fields Sea Level Pressure

37 EXERCISE

38 Barbados Dakar Barbados Dakar

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40 July 13, UTC July 14, UTC July 15, UTC July 16, UTC July 17, UTC July 18, UTC July 19, UTC July 20, UTC July 21, UTC July 22, UTC July 23, UTC July 24, UTC

41 Barbados Dakar

42 July 25, 13, UTC 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 70 W 60 W 50 W 40 W 30 W 20 W