Attempt to prepare seasonal weather outlook for Slovenia
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1 Attempt to prepare seasonal weather outlook for Slovenia Main available sources (ECMWF, EUROSIP, IRI, CPC.NCEP.NOAA,..) Two parameters (T and RR anomally) Textual information ( Met Office like ) Issued at the end of month for the next 3 months period Published on the EARS web page () Branko Gregorčič
2 ECMWF forecast for JAS 2008
3 EUROSIP forecast for JAS 2008
4 IRI forecast for JAS 2008
5 Met Office forecast for JAS 2008
6 NWS/NCEP forecast for JAS,
7 Seasonal outlook as presented on Vremenski izgledi za poletje Sezonske napovedi za trimesečje junij, julij, avgust Datum: Temperatura: V poletnem trimesečju (junij, julij, avgust 2008) lahko po izračunih večine svetovnih centrov, ki se ukvarjajo s sezonskimi vremenskimi napovedmi (ECMWF, Met Office, Meteo-France, IRI), v večjem delu Evrope pričakujemo nekoliko višje temperature od dolgoletnega povprečja za ta čas. Verjetnost, da bo omenjeno obdobje toplejše od povprečja zadnjih 25 let je največja na območju južne Evrope in Sredozemlja, pa tudi v južnih predelih Baltika in Skandinavije. Na širšem območju Slovenije je v povprečju pričakovati za okoli 1 stopinjo C višjo temperaturo. Padavine: Napovedana količina padavin v trimesečju (junij, julij, avgust) je v večjem delu Evrope v okviru dolgoletnega povprečja. Šibak signal možnega primanjkljaja dežja pa je v nekaterih napovedih zaznati predvsem na območju jugovzhodne Evrope. Stanje v Sloveniji in pričakovani razvoj: V mesecu maju je bila količina po Sloveniji večinoma nekoliko pod povprečjem, a glede na dobro predhodno namočenost beležimo primanjkljaj vode le na skrajnem severovzhodu države. Temperature so bile v mesecu maju večinoma nekoliko nad povprečnimi za ta čas, v zadnjih dneh meseca pa smo dočakali prvi letošnji vročinski val. Meseca maja izdane napovedi za trimesečje junij, julij, avgust (poletje) za območje Slovenije predvidevajo povprečno namočenost, le na vzhodu države je verjetnost, da bo padavin nekaj manj od povprečja od 60 do 70%. Verjetnost, da bodo temperature po Sloveniji v naslednjem trimesečju nad povprečjem, pa je še vedno ocenjena kar na 70 do 80%. Pričakujemo lahko torej povečano izhlapevanje in ob krajevno neenakomerni razporeditvi padavin lahko nekatera območja, predvsem obrobje Panonske nižine, občasno prizadene tudi pomanjkanje vode, oz. suša. Opomba: Sezonske vremenske napovedi v zmernih geografskih širinah so še vedno dokaj nezanesljive. Možna so tudi velika odstopanja od napovedanih vrednosti.
8 Forecast skill for T2m and Prec forecasts (NWS/NCEP)
9 Anomaly correlation of ECMWF forecasts for period with start in May for 3-5 months
10 SUMMARY The skill of seasonal forecasts in the mid-latitudes is still very limited due to unpredictable polar front oscilation It seems that the temperature anomally forecasts are a bit more reliable than precipitation anomally forecasts The potential users of seasonal forecasts should be aware and warned about the limitation and uncertainty JAS for Slovenia warm more likely (weak signal) - average Prec
11
12 Standardized Precipitation Index
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