Why Cold Weather Doesn't Mean Global Warming Isn't Real

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1 Why Cold Weather Doesn't Mean Global Warming Isn't Real Dina Spector and Chelsea Harvey Nov. 21, 2014 The past couple weeks have given climate change skeptics plenty of events that seem like reasons to dispute global warming. An inundation of wintry weather across the country carried snowstorms and freezing temperatures everywhere from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. Most recently, snowstorms in Buffalo, NY have made travel impossible, caused roofs to buckle, and left at least a dozen people dead. If it's so cold and there's a dangerous amount of snow, then how could the Earth possibly be warming? Part of the confusion comes down to our understanding of weather and climate. People question the scientific reality of global warming because they don't know the difference between the two. Weather is what we see day-to-day. It explains changes in the atmosphere over short periods of time and is highly unpredictable. A sudden thunderstorm or blizzard is what we refer to as weather. Climate, on the other hand, describes the behavior of the atmosphere over long periods of time. Using weather (i.e a few very cold days) as evidence against global warming (i.e a decade of hotter summers) is kind of like using one man's early death to disprove the fact that, on average, life expectancies are increasing. There will continue to be hot and cold extremes, but when the weather is averaged over time, a clear warming trend emerges. The 2009 State of the Climate Report, compiled by hundreds of scientists around the world, revealed that the first decade of this century was the hottest since scientists started recording data in the 1880s. The current decade is shaping up to be a record breaker, as well. Data just released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that this October was the hottest one on record and April, May, June, August, and September all broke their own records this year, too. NOAA's map below shows how this October's temperatures stack up to average temperatures for this time of year. Red areas are warmer than average and blue areas are colder than average. Overall, there is a general warming pattern across the map and that's true not just of this month, but of the entire year. In fact, 2014 is currently on track to become the hottest year on record.

2 But climate contrarians will still protest: "Our climate has gone through huge transitions before!" That's true. Over the past million of years the Earth has shifted between warm "interglacial" periods and cool "glacial" periods. These changes, however, occurred over long stretches of time and were caused by natural variation in the Earth's system. The changes in climate that scientists are observing today are man-made, caused by an increasing level of heattrapping greenhouse gases in the planet. As a result, the warming of our planet is happening on a much shorter timescale than ever before. In fact, the whirlpool of frigid air, known as the "polar vortex" which was blamed for last winter's "eye-popping" cold weather and has been held responsible for some of this month's frigid conditions may actually be tied to warming temperatures in the Arctic. During the winter, these winds normally remain locked up over the Arctic. Last winter, the polar vortex made headlines when it became notably unstable (a pattern that was also observed in ), possibly because of melting ice and warmer polar winters. The weakened vortex allows streams of the cold Arctic air to break free, flowing into other parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Earlier this month, polar winds were disrupted by a weather event known as a "bomb cyclone," which rammed into the polar jetstream and sent a flurry of unseasonably cold weather south through North America. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming temperatures are likely to cause an increase in extreme weather events around the globe, including the kind of cyclone mentioned above. So while this wintry weather may seem like a sign of hope for the earth, it's important to note that climate change is capable of producing all kinds of effects. And paying attention to longterm patterns rather than short-term weather events is the best way to find out the truth about what's happening on the planet.

3 Here's What Would Happen If We Stopped Emitting Carbon Pollution Right Now Richard B. Rood Dec. 24, 2014 Earth s climate is changing rapidly. We know this from billions of observations, documented in thousands of journal papers and texts and summarized every few years by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary cause of that change is the release of carbon dioxide from burning coal, oil and natural gas. International climate talks in Lima this week are laying the foundation for next year s UN climate summit in Paris. While negotiations about reducing emissions grind on, how much warming are we already locked into? If we stop emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, why would the temperature continue to rise? Basics of carbon and climate The carbon dioxide that accumulates in the atmosphere insulates the surface of the Earth. It s like a warming blanket that holds in heat. This energy increases the Earth s surface average temperature, heats the oceans and melts polar ice. As consequences, sea level rises and weather changes. Since 1880, after carbon dioxide emissions took off with the Industrial Revolution, the average global temperature has increased about 1.5F (0.85C). Each of the last three decades has been warmer than the preceding decade, as well as warmer than the entire previous century. The Arctic is warming much faster than the average global temperature; ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting and the permafrost is thawing. Ice sheets in both the Arctic and Antarctic are melting. Ecosystems on both land and in the sea are changing. The observed changes are coherent and consistent with our theoretical understanding of the Earth s

4 energy balance and simulations from models that are used to understand past variability and to help us think about the future. A crack in Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier. Slam on the climate brakes What would happen to the climate if we were to stop emitting carbon dioxide today, right now? Would we return to the climate of our elders? The simple answer is no. Once we release the carbon dioxide stored in the fossil fuels we burn, it accumulates in and moves amongst the atmosphere, the oceans, the land, and the plants and animals of the biosphere. The released carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years. Only after many millennia will it return to rocks, for example, through the formation of calcium carbonate limestone as marine organisms' shells settle to the bottom of the ocean. But on time spans relevant to humans, once released the carbon dioxide is in our environment essentially forever. It does not go away, unless we, ourselves, remove it. If we stop emitting today, it s not the end of the story for global warming. There s a delay in temperature increase as the climate catches up with all the carbon that s in the atmosphere. After maybe 40 more years, the climate will stabilize at a temperature higher than what was normal for previous generations. This decades-long lag between cause and effect is due to the long time it takes to heat the the ocean s huge mass. The energy that is held at the Earth by the increased carbon dioxide does more than heat the air. It melts ice; it heats the ocean. Compared to air, it s harder to raise the temperature of water it takes time, decades. However, once the ocean temperature is elevated, it adds to the warming of the Earth s surface. So even if carbon emissions stopped completely right now, as the oceans catch up with the atmosphere, the Earth s temperature would rise about another 1.1F (0.6C). Scientists refer to this as committed warming. Ice, also responding to increasing heat in the ocean, will continue to melt. There s already convincing evidence that significant glaciers in the West Antarctic ice sheets are lost. Ice, water, and air the extra heat held on the Earth by carbon dioxide affects them all. That which has melted will stay melted and more will melt. Ecosystems are altered by natural and manmade occurrences. As they recover, it will be in a different climate from that in which they evolved. The climate in which they recover will not be stable; it will be continuing to warm. There will be no new normal, only more change.

5 Best of the worst case scenarios In any event, it s not possible to stop emitting carbon dioxide today, right now. Despite significant advances in renewable energy sources, total demand for energy accelerates and carbon dioxide emissions increase. I teach my students that they need to plan for a world 7F (4C) warmer. A 2011 report from the International Energy Agency states that if we don t get off our current path, then we re looking at an Earth 11F (6C) warmer. Our current Earth is just over 1F warmer, and the observed changes are already disturbing. There are many reasons that we need to essentially eliminate our carbon dioxide emissions. The climate is changing rapidly; if that pace is slowed, the affairs of nature and human beings can adapt more readily. The total amount of change, including sea-level rise, can be limited. The further we get away from the climate that we have known, the more unreliable the guidance from our models and the less likely we will be able to prepare. The warmer the planet gets, the more likely reservoirs of carbon dioxide and methane, another greenhouse gas that warms the planet, will be released from storage in the frozen Arctic permafrost further adding to the problem. If we stop our emissions today, we won t go back to the past. This is not reason, however, to continue with unbridled emissions. We are adaptable creatures, with credible knowledge of our climate s future and how we can frame that future. We re already stuck with some amount of guaranteed climate change at this point. Rather than trying to recover the past, we need to be thinking about best possible futures.

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