Impact of global warming on ENSO clearer now than ever before

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1 Impact of global warming on ENSO clearer now than ever before Scott Power, François Delage, Christine Chung ENSO in a warmer climate Guayaquil, Ecuador October 2018

2 Outline Projected changes in El Niño-driven precipitation variability in the Pacific Implications for regions around the world i.e., teleconnections Implications for central America/Mexico Increased clarity on the impact of global warming on El Niño-Southern Oscillation Late entry: Has ENSO already changed?

3 D

4

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6 What happens to ENSO-driven precipitation variability in climate models, in response to business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gases?

7 Global warming intensifies ENSO-driven precipitation variability in the Pacific Results from CMIP5 models Late 20 th C Late 21 st C RCP8.5

8 Conclusion Later this century, business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gas emissions will increase the ENSO-driven rainfall variability in the equatorial Pacific Power, S. et al. 2013: Nature Chung et al. 2014: Climate Dynamics Chung and Power: 2015, 2016, 2017.

9 As variability in the equatorial Pacific is the engine for ENSO-driven variability around the world, this raises an important question: Does this drive an increase in the intensity of ENSOdriven precipitation variability beyond the Pacific, around the world? In other words, do ENSO precipitation teleconnections intensify?

10 How well do climate models simulate ENSO teleconnections?

11 ENSO precipitation variability in observations and models Left: Observations Right: Multi-model average of CMIP5 Climate Models

12 Sign of El Niño-La Niña rainfall composites correct in 23 out of 25 regions!

13 Global warming intensifies ENSO-driven precipitation variability in the Pacific: Results from CMIP5 models 20 th C 21 st C RCP8.5

14 What happens to ENSO-driven precipitation variability in other parts of the world, beyond the equatorial Pacific?

15

16 Magnitude of ENSO-driven precipitation variability increases in 19 out of 25 regions (JJA)

17 Changes in ENSO-driven precipitation variability away from the Pacific JJA In the 14 regions with robust 20 th C signals: Variability increases in 12 regions (sig level = 99.9%) 21% median increase on ENSO variability DJF In the 19 regions with robust 20 th C signals Variability increases in 14 regions (sig level >99%) Median increase = 16%

18 What happens in central America/Mexico?

19 JJA

20 No robust changes in ENSO-driven precipitation variability in Central America/Mexico JJA

21 What is the combined impact of : ENSO-driven variability changes Changes in rainfall during neutral years in central America/Mexico?

22 Central America/Mexico summary for JJA 20 th C La Niña Neutral El Niño

23 Central America/Mexico summary for JJA 20 th C La Niña Neutral 21 st C El Niño Neutral

24 Central America/Mexico summary for JJA 20 th C La Niña Neutral El Niño 21 st C La Niña Neutral El Niño

25 Summary The magnitude of ENSO-driven precipitation variability generally increases around the world (JJA, RCP8.5) Consistent with Bonfils et al., 2015 Results consistent with there being a modest increase in ENSO-driven variability of order 15-20%.

26 Impact of global warming on ENSO clearer now than ever before International ENSO conference: ENSO in a warmer climate Guayaquil, Ecuador

27 Studies supporting this, or consistent with this include: Power et al., 2013 Cai et al., 2014, 2015 Chung et al., 2014 Chung and Power, 2016 Bonfils et al Power and Delage, 2018 McGregor et al Huang 2016 Huang and Xie 2015 Perry et al Seager et al Watanabe 2014 Wang et al Cobb et al., 201x, - All focused on changes in precipitation variability

28 Magnitude of ENSO-driven SST variability in the 20 th and 21 st centuries Power et al., 2013: Nature

29 Magnitude of ENSO-driven SST variability in the 20 th and 21 st centuries Highly uncertain! Power et al., 2013: Nature

30 Impact of global warming on ENSO Projected changes in ENSO-driven SST variability remains unclear However, models (CMIP3 and CMIP5) tend to agree on projected changes in ENSO-driven precipitation that ENSO-driven SST variability has a bigger bang for buck in a warmer world

31 The many recent studies published in last 5 years increase confidence in projected changes in aspects of ENSO, namely ENSO-driven precipitation variability

32 The many recent studies increase confidence in projected changes in aspects of ENSO However, confidence is still not high because, e.g., uncertainty in projections of amplitude of ENSO-driven SST models exhibit deficiencies in their ability to simulate: the mean-state of the Pacific ENSO-driven variability in current climate observed, recent multi-decadal change in the Pacific

33 Impact of global warming on ENSO is clearer now than ever before

34 Impact of global warming on ENSO seems clearer now than ever before

35 Dr McPhaden: Has ENSO-driven variability already increased?

36

37 Projected changes in the frequency of the major disruptions to Pacific rainfall that ENSO causes Power, S. et al. 2017: Nature Communications; Power, S. et al. 2017: The Conversation; Cai et al. 2015

38 Key point: The risk of major disruption is already inflated Consistent with paleo research: Shayne McGregor Kim Cobb Power, S. et al. 2017: Nature Communications; Power, S. et al. 2017: The Conversation; see also Wang et al. 2017; Cai et al. 2015

39 Muchas gracias!

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