SOUTHERN CLIMATE MONITOR

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SOUTHERN CLIMATE MONITOR NOVEMBER 2011 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 11 IN THIS ISSUE:

Precipitation Summary for November Page 5 - So Temperature Summary for

South Disclaimer: The Southern Climate Monitor is an experimental climate

While we make every attempt to verify this information, we do not warrant

The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of these data.

Planning Program (SCIPP), the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, and the

whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied

This publication was prepared by SRCC/SCIPP with support in part from the U.

1 SOUTHERN CLIMATE MONITOR NOVEMBER 2011 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 11 IN THIS ISSUE: Page 2 - Winter Forecast for the South Page 3 - Hurricane Season Wrap-up Page 4 - Drought Update Page 4 - Southern U.S. Precipitation Summary for November Page 5 - Southern U.S. Temperature Summary for November Page 6 - Climate Perspective and Station Summaries Across the South Disclaimer: The Southern Climate Monitor is an experimental climate outreach and engagement product. While we make every attempt to verify this information, we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of these data. The Southern Regional Climate Center (SRCC), Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, and the Louisiana Office of State Climatology disclaims any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties or merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This publication was prepared by SRCC/SCIPP with support in part from the U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA, under award NA080AR and other grants. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA. The Southern Climate Monitor is available at &

Winter Forecast for the SCIPP Region Barry Keim, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Programs, Louisiana State University Our winter forecast for most of the SCIPP region calls for warmer and drier

2 Winter Forecast for the SCIPP Region Barry Keim, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Programs, Louisiana State University Our winter forecast for most of the SCIPP region calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions, with the exception of Tennessee, where the forecast calls for wetter than normal conditions (Figure 1). Actually, what the Climate Prediction Center is really noting is that the probability of having a warmer and drier than normal season is enhanced, thereby having a higher than average chance for these conditions. This forecast is entirely consistent with what we would expect during a La Nina winter. In this instance, the jet stream and storm tracking tends to shift northward bringing rains to the Ohio River Valley, including Tennessee, and leaving the southern United States warm, and high and dry. If you consider how poorly forecasters are at predicting weather 4 or 5 days in advance, you would think that forecasting months ahead would be nearly impossible. Well, predicting specific weather events weeks to months in advance is impossible, indeed. Predicting climate, on the other hand, is a little different, although nonetheless daunting. There have been some recent breakthroughs in this science and it can be done with some (limited) success. Climate forecasters are becoming better skilled as result of understanding teleconnections. A teleconnection is an association of weather that takes place in differing parts of the earth. In this case, the reference is to our current La Nina. La Nina is a phenomenon that takes place in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, yet it has impacts on weather and climate in certain parts of the world, including the south-central United States. During past La Nina events, the south-central United States has tended to be warmer and drier than normal. Not surprisingly, this is precisely the forecast by NOAA s Climate Prediction Center for the region for this upcoming winter season. Clearly, this is not good news for those being impacted by the current drought conditions. Figure 1: Winter (December through February) forecast for temperature (right) and precipitation (left) by the NOAA s Climate Prediction Center 2

2011 Hurricane Season Drawing to a Close Barry Keim, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University Nationally, the biggest highlight this season was Hurricane Irene which

TS Don made landfall just north of Browsville, TX in late July, with hopes of bringing drought-busting rains.

3 2011 Hurricane Season Drawing to a Close Barry Keim, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University Nationally, the biggest highlight this season was Hurricane Irene which produced incredible rainfall and flooding in the northeastern United States. In the SCIPP region, our tropical highlights this season were Tropical Storms Don and Lee. TS Don made landfall just north of Browsville, TX in late July, with hopes of bringing drought-busting rains. Unfortunately, it did not live up to its billing as a rainmaker, and it had little to no impact on the Texas drought. In contrast, TS Lee brought between inches of rainfall to southeast Louisiana in early September, which did impact drought conditions there. Unfortunately, Louisiana has not had much rain since either. The 2011 hurricane season is now in the record books, as hurricane season officially ended on November 30th. It is around this time of year when the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico become sufficiently cool that tropical storms and hurricanes no longer form..generally. However, there are always exceptions. For example, in 2005, Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the Atlantic on December 30th, and remained active for 8 days - until January 6, This storm was also part of the same, extraordinary, 2005 hurricane season with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita - the most active season on record with 28 named storms. The 2011 season tallied 18 named storms (Figure 1), making it the 7th busiest season on record, with record-keeping beginning in Surely it is possible to add another storm along the way before we officially close book on 2011, but the chances are small. Fortunately for the United States and for the SCIPP region, most storm tracks remained over the Atlantic Ocean, with little activity in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Table 1: 2011 tropical storm and hurricane statistics Figure 1: Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin in From c/2011/index.html. 3

DROUGHT CONDITIONS Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center Drought conditions in the Southern Region did not change much in terms of extent, however; there were significant improvements in

Exceptional drought, which last month covered over 40 percent of the region, has now been reduced to just under 30 percent.

4 DROUGHT CONDITIONS Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center Drought conditions in the Southern Region did not change much in terms of extent, however; there were significant improvements in terms of intensity. In total, the region saw approximately a ten percent reduction in areal extent of each drought category. This equates to a one category improvement over much of the region. Exceptional drought, which last month covered over 40 percent of the region, has now been reduced to just under 30 percent. Drought conditions have been removed in western Tennessee, and much of Arkansas is now drought free. Some new moderate drought has crept into southern Mississippi, but deterioration of drought conditions this month has fortunately been minimal. Above: Drought conditions in the Southern Region. Map is valid for November Image courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center The month of November was a wet month for much of the northern part of the Southern Region. Many stations in Oklahoma averaged between 150 and 300 percent of normal. This was also the case for central and northern Arkansas, and western and eastern Tennessee. For Oklahoma, it was the ninth wettest November on record ( ), with a state average precipitation total of 4.87 inches ( mm). Arkansas averaged 8.66 inches ( mm) of precipitation, making it the eighth wettest November on record ( ) there. Tennessee averaged 7.36 inches ( mm), which was the seventh wettest November on record ( ). Elsewhere in the southern region, conditions were generally drier than normal. The driest areas included western and southern Texas, where the majority of stations received less than half the expected precipitation. This was also the case for the Florida parishes of Louisiana and the southern most counties of Mississippi. Texas averaged only 1.24 inches (31.49 mm) of precipitation. Though it was drier than normal, it was still much wetter than in recent months. Conditions were slightly wetter in Louisiana and Mississippi, though still drier than normal. Louisiana and Mississippi reported state average precipitation totals of 3.64 inches (92.46 mm) and 3.71 inches (94.23 mm), respectively. Total precipitation values a for November

5 The percent of normal precipitation totals (right) for November TEMPERATURE SUMMARY Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center November was generally a warmer than normal month for much of the Southern Region, with most stations averaging approximate 1-3 degrees F ( degrees C) above normal. The highest departures from normal occurred in Arkansas, and north central Tennessee, where many stations reported monthly average temperatures between 3 to 5 degrees F (1.67 to 2.78 degrees C) warmer than expected. Tennessee had a state average temperature of degrees F (10.61 degrees C), which was the nineteenth warmest November on record there ( ). Arkansas experienced its twenty-fifth warmest November on record ( ) with an average temperature of degrees F (11.89 degrees C). All other state averages fell within the middle two quartiles. Louisiana averaged degrees F (15.44 degrees C) for the month, while Mississippi reported a state average temperature of degrees F (13.28 degrees C). Texas averaged degrees F (13.83 degrees C) for the month and Oklahoma averaged a temperature of degrees F (9.78 degrees C). Average temperatures (left) and departures from normal average temperatures (right) for November 2011, across the South. 5

CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE State temperature and precipitation values and rankings for November 2011.

STATION SUMMARIES ACROSS THE SOUTH Summary of temperature and precipitation information from around the region for November 2011. Data provided by the Applied Climate Information System.

6 CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE State temperature and precipitation values and rankings for November Ranks are based on the National Climatic Data Center's Statewide, Regional and National Dataset over the period STATION SUMMARIES ACROSS THE SOUTH Summary of temperature and precipitation information from around the region for November Data provided by the Applied Climate Information System. On this chart, "depart" is the average's departure from the normal average, and "% norm" is the percentage of rainfall received compared with normal amounts of rainfall. Plus signs in the dates column denote that the extremes were reached on multiple days. Blue-shaded boxes represent cooler than normal temperatures; red-shaded boxes denote warmer than normal temperatures; tan shades represent drier than normal conditions; and green shades denote wetter than normal conditions. 6

7 SOUTHERN CLIMATE 101 Have a question about Southern U.S. climate? Let us know and we may feature the answer in a future issue of the Monitor! In future issues of the Monitor, we will select a user submitted climate question and provide a reply, to appear in this spot on the back page of the Monitor. Though any aspect of climate is fair game, we will give greatest consideration to questions pertaining to extreme weather & climate events, recent conditions, and climate-related issues relevant to the South Central U.S. - specifically the states of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. For instance, perhaps you recently experienced a significant winter storm and you were curious how rare it was from a historical perspective. Contact us at monitor@southernclimate.org and we will consider your question among all the others we receive. In the subject line of your message, please use "Southern Climate 101." We look forward to your submissions! Have a climate question, but do not want it to be answered in a public forum? No problem! Feel free to contact us at one of the options listed below, and we will do our best to address your question. SOUTHERN CLIMATE MONITOR TEAM: Luigi Romolo, Regional Climatologist Southern Regional Climate Center (LSU) Charlotte Lunday, Student Assistant Lynne Carter, Program Manager Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (LSU) Margret Boone, Program Manager Rachel Riley, Research Associate Hal Needham, Research Associate Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (LSU) Barry Keim, State Climatologist for Louisiana Co-PI, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (LSU) Mark Shafer, Principal Investigator Gary McManus, Associate State Climatologist for Oklahoma CONTACT US Kevin Robbins, Director Southern Regional Climate Center (LSU) The Monitor is an experimental climate outreach and engagement product of the Southern Regional Climate Center and Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program. To provide feedback or suggestions to improve the content provided in the Monitor, please contact us at monitor@southernclimate.org. We look forward to hearing from you and tailoring the Monitor to better serve you. You can also find us online at and For any questions pertaining to historical climate data across the states of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, or Tennessee, please contact the Southern Regional Climate Center at For questions or inquiries regarding research, experimental tool development, and engagement activities at the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, please contact us at or Copyright 2011 Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma; Louisiana State University 7

SOUTHERN CLIMATE MONITOR

SOUTHERN CLIMATE MONITOR MARCH 2011 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 3 IN THIS ISSUE: Page 2 to 4 Severe Thunderstorm Climatology in the SCIPP Region Page 4 Drought Update Page 5 Southern U.S. Precipitation Summary for