SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

Transcription

1 SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Co-leads: Masatomo Fujiwara (Hokkaido Univ.), and David Jackson (Met Office) SPARC SSG meeting, Queenstown, NZ, 20 January 2014

2 Outline Reanalysis? Motivation and Goals Progress to Date Scope Outline Plan for S-RIP Report Schedule Management Links to Other Projects Prospects for the Future A brief side-meeting report (Items in red are what are written in the Implementation Plan draft.)

3 Reanalysis? Provided (mostly) by national weather services based on the weather forecasting and global analysis systems Input observational data (mostly operational data): Surface measurements (over land and from ships & buoys), upper air sounding, aircraft, various operational satellite sensors, etc. Data Assimilation : Combining observations and forecast model outputs to produce an estimate of the state of the atmosphere (the analysis ) at a particular time (forecast model is adjusted by observations; or, limited inhomogeneous observations are interpolated physically) Re analysis: a fixed assimilation system (forecast model + assimilation scheme) (but note the stream issues) additional observational data that were not available real time Surface stations Ships and buoys Satellites Upper air stations Aircraft data Global Telecommunication System (GTS)

4 Observation list - time series - Example from JRA-55 Update from Ebita et al., SOLA, 2011

5 Available Global Atmospheric Reanalyses Product Centre Period Resolution and Lid Height of the Contact for S-RIP Forecast Model MERRA NASA 1979 present (2/3)x(1/2) deg., L72, 0.01 hpa S. Pawson ERA-Interim ECMWF 1979 present T L 255 & N128 reduced Gaussian D. Tan (79km), L60, 0.1 hpa ERA-40 ECMWF T L 159 & N80 reduced Gaussian D. Tan (125km), L60, 0.1 hpa NCEP-CFSR NCEP T382 (T574 for post 2010), L64, C. Long present hpa JRA-55 JMA T319, L60, 0.1 hpa K. Onogi JRA-25/JCDAS JMA and CRIEPI 1979 present T106, L40, 0.4 hpa K. Onogi NCEP-2 (R-2) NCEP and DOE 1979 present T62, L28, 3 hpa W. Ebisuzaki AMIP-II NCEP-1 (R-1) NCEP and NCAR 1948 present T62, L28, 3 hpa W. Ebisuzaki NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR_v2) (*) NOAA/ESRL PSD T62, L28, 2.511hPa G. Compo & J. S. Whitaker (*) 20CR assimilates only surface pressure reports and uses observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. New reanalysis data sets, within a few years: ERA-20C (and ERA-SAT), MERRA-2, etc. NOTE: Volcanic aerosols are considered only in CFSR and 20CR (in the radiative calculation of the forecast model)

6 Motivation and Goals Middle atmosphere/climate community has used reanalysis and analysis data sets to understand atmospheric processes and variability to validate chemistry-climate models (e.g., CCMVal) for trend analyses (potential) There are currently ~9 global reanalysis data sets available worldwide Different reanalyses give different results for the same diagnostic Depending on the diagnostic, the different results may be due to differences either in observational data assimilated assimilation scheme forecast model or any combination of these Need to investigate each diagnostic to evaluate RAs

7 Motivation and Goals The goals of S-RIP are to: Create a communication platform between the SPARC community (middle atmosphere, UTLS, etc.) and the reanalysis centres Understand current reanalysis products and to contribute to future reanalysis improvements in the middle atmosphere region (including UTLS, etc.) Write up the results of the reanalysis intercomparison in peer reviewed papers and a SPARC report ( )

8 Progress to Date June 2011: Discussion started at 8 th SPARC Data Assimilation (DA) workshop, Brussels January 2012: Proposal article in SPARC Newsletter February 2012: S-RIP officially endorsed by the SPARC SSG as an emerging activity of SPARC Summer 2012: Scientific WG was formed Discussion in WG on the chapter titles, co-leads, contributors, and planning meeting Two co-leads for most of the planned chapters (most of the WG members became chapter co-leads) April 2013: S-RIP Planning Meeting at Exeter, UK (3 days, 39 participants + 1 remotely) July 2013: Planning meeting report article in SPARC Newsletter January 2014: S-RIP side meeting (Tuesday lunchtime, 27 participants + 3 remotely)

9 WG members Masatomo Fujiwara (co-lead) David Jackson (co-lead) Thomas Birner Simon Chabrillat Sean Davis Michaela Hegglin Kirstin Krüger Craig Long Gloria Manney Susann Tegtmeier Yulia Zyulyaeva Reanalysis-Centre Contacts for S-RIP Wesley Ebisuzaki David Tan Kazutoshi Onogi & Yayoi Harada Steven Pawson Craig Long Gilbert Compo & Jeffrey S. Whitaker Hokkaido Univ., Japan Met Office, UK Colorado State Univ., USA Belgian Institute of Space Aeronomy, Belguim NOAA/ESRL, USA Univ. Reading, UK GEOMAR, Germany NOAA/NCEP, USA NWRA/New Mexico Tech, USA GEOMAR, Germany P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE ERA-40, ERA-Interim JRA-25/JCDAS, JRA-55 NASA-MERRA NCEP-CFSR NOAA/CIRES 20CR S-RIP Preparation Team: M. Fujiwara, S. Polavarapu (until May 2013), D. Jackson, and D. Tan (as the RA-centre representative) Summer 2012

10 Scope At the planning meeting it was decided that the project would focus predominantly on reanalyses (although some chapters may include diagnostics from operational analyses). Available and soon to be available reanalyses are shown in Table 1. For most of the chapters, we will compare newer reanalyses, i.e., MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-25/JCDAS, JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR, and 20CR. We aim to include new reanalyses (e.g., ERA-20C, ERA-SAT, MERRA-2) when available. Some chapters may include older reanalyses such as R-1, R-2, and ERA-40, because they have been heavily used in the past and are still being used for certain studies, and to gain insight into potential shortcomings of past research results. For some chapters, only a subset of these reanalyses shall be used, since some reanalyses have already been shown to be poor for some studies (eg ERA-40 for polar processes), or do not extend to high enough levels (eg 20CR does not extend above the stratopause). At the beginning of each chapter an explanation will be given as to why specific reanalyses were included or excluded. The intercomparison period is , i.e., the satellite era, but some chapters will also consider the pre-satellite era before Given the wide use of ERA-40 (which only runs to 2002) a separate intercomparison for shall be carried out for some diagnostics and placed in an Appendix.

11 Outline Plan for S-RIP Report S-RIP Report Structure determined at the S-RIP Planning Meeting (Met Office, 29 April-1 May 2013) Chapter Title Chapter Co-leads 1 Introduction Masatomo Fujiwara, David Jackson 2 Description of the Reanalysis System Masatomo Fujiwara, David Tan, Craig Long 3 Climatology and Interannual Variability Craig Long, Masatomo Fujiwara of Dynamical Variables 4 Climatology and Interannual Variability Michaela Hegglin, Sean Davis of Ozone and Water Vapour 5 Brewer-Dobson Circulation Thomas Birner, Beatriz Monge-Sanz 6 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Edwin Gerber, Yulia Zyulyaeva 7 ExUTLS Cameron Homeyer, Gloria Manney 8 TTL Susann Tegtmeier, Kirstin Krüger 9 QBO and Tropical Variability James Anstey, Lesley Gray 10 Polar Processes Michelle Santee, Alyn Lambert 11 USLM Diane Pendlebury, Lynn Harvey 12 Synthesis Summary Masatomo Fujiwara, David Jackson Chapters 1-4: Basic chapters Chapters 5-11: Advanced chapters

12 Schedule (as written in S-RIP Implementation Plan draft) Schedule We shall finalize the basic chapters (i.e., Chapters 1-4) within 2 years after the S-RIP Planning Meeting. The advanced chapters (5-12) will evolve slightly more slowly, with an interim report on these chapters every year. The plan is as follows. Top Level deliverables are in bold. May 2014: Basics in place for reanalysis intercomparison reanalysis and observational data downloaded, diagnostics being developed, initial results produced Write progress report for SPARC SSG May 2015: complete basic chapters (Chapters 1-4) complete interim (first draft) Chapters 5-11 May 2016 Write progress report for SPARC SSG May 2018 complete Advanced Chapters (Chapters 5-12) and whole report review S-RIP and decide on extension of activity A further key part of S-RIP will be to write peer-reviewed papers. This will be done at any appropriate time. Wherever possible, the aim will be to write these papers prior to completion of the report, rather than the other way around. This avoids problems with citations of original research.

13 Management S-RIP is co-led by Masatomo Fujiwara (Japan) and David Jackson (UK). The co-leads are members of a wider Working Group, who help steer the direction of the project and coordinate the specifics of the work. Working Group members are David Tan (UK), Thomas Birner (USA), Simon Chabrillat (Belgium), Sean Davis (USA), Yulia Zyulyaeva (Russia), Michaela Hegglin (UK), Kirstin Krueger (Germany), Craig Long (USA), Susann Tegtmeier (Germany), Gloria Manney (USA). Each reanalysis centre also has a contact who is involved in S-RIP and whose presence is vital to ensure the two-way flow of knowledge between researchers and the reanalysis centres. The reanalysis centre contacts are David Tan (ECMWF), Craig Long (NCEP), Wesley Ebisuzaki (NCEP), Kazutoshi Onogi (JMA), Yayoi Harada (JMA), Steven Pawson (NASA/GMAO), Gilbert Compo (NOAA), Jeffrey Whitaker (University of Colorado). Each chapter of the report has nominated co-leads who organise the production of relevant diagnostics and the chapter writing. The chapter co-leads are shown in Table 2. Thirty-five scientists from 10 countries have expressed their wish to be Chapter Leads or Contributing Authors for S-RIP. This number will grow as the project develops.

14 Management Monitoring of the project will be via progress reports written by chapter co-leads every 6 months (with the option of associated telecons for further discussion). Further workshops are also planned: Mid/late 2014 (location probably NCEP (USA)) planning for writing of papers and completion of Core chapters 1-4 and an interim report for chapter 5-11) Late 2016/early 2017 (location TBD) planning for writing of papers and completion of full report. Dissemination of up-to-date project information will be made available through the S-RIP website at We will archive the processed data that are used for the figures/tables in the report at the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). see next two pages

15 Facilities for the S-RIP British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) James Anstey and Lesley Gray; Charlotte Pascoe at BADC 10 TB disk space for the S-RIP Various tools available for data analysis Archive value-added data (e.g., commonly gridded monthly mean dataset that Sean Davis is preparing) S-RIP website ( Jonathon Wright for the page creation; Masatomo Fujiwara for the server preparation at Hokkaido University, Japan; both are maintaining the website Also has a discussion board function (for internal discussion for each chapter team) and a wiki function (for writing manuscripts) See next page

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17 Place: Next S-RIP Meeting NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) College Park, Maryland, USA When Tentatively September 10, 11, and 12, 2014 SPARC DA will tentatively meet September 8, 9, and 10, 2014 There will be a joint meeting on September 10, 2014 Host Craig Long, NOAA Climate Prediction Center Facility Separate conference center, wifi, cafeteria Parking on site or shuttle from hotel Building Tour will be arranged

18 Links to Other Projects S-RIP has developed links to SPARC projects SNAP (SPARC Network on Assessment of Predictability) and SPARC-DAWG (Data Assimilation Working Group) through the obvious links in stratospheric analyses and impacts of analyses on stratospheric forecasting that these groups also work on. Reanalyses are widely used to validate climate models and thus there are clear linkages between the activities of S-RIP and of CCMI. There is also scope for interaction with the SPARC activities on Temperature Trends and Trace Gas / Aerosol Climatologies. Leading members of these three activities are also in the S-RIP Working Group, thus enhancing opportunities for co-ordination and collaboration. S-RIP has been publicised at WGNE (WMO Working Group on Numerical Experimentation) meetings, where the project has been received well. Ideas for a parallel WGNE activity focused on tropospheric reanalyses have been discussed. S-RIP activities have the potential to be important components of the Global Framework for Climate Services.

19 Prospects for the future S-RIP is planned to last for 5 years. However, given that a goal of S-RIP is to feed back scientific results to the reanalysis centres (thus forming a virtuous circle of assessment => improved reanalyses => more assessment => further improvement in reanalyses), and that most reanalysis centres have in any event ongoing programmes to deliver new, improved reanalyses, it would be valuable to continue S-RIP beyond its initial 5 years. It is thus critical to review the value of S-RIP with the research community, reanalysis centres and the SPARC SSG after its first 5 years to determine whether, and if so in what form, S-RIP should continue. It is hoped that some support from SPARC will be maintained if it is decided that S-RIP should continue longer. It is important that the project has a lasting legacy to sustain the international interest in the assessment of reanalyses. A prime legacy of the project is likely to be development of links between researchers and reanalysis centres that mean future reanalysis developments will use the outcomes from S-RIP assessments of reanalyses in a systematic, standardised way, rather than the more ad hoc approaches that may pertain at present. A further legacy will be a data archive (at BADC) of reanalyses datasets, at standard resolution to enable ease of intercomparison without further processing, and which will be freely available to researchers world-wide and will continue to be a useful means of assessing reanalyses beyond the lifetime of the project.

20 A brief side-meeting report 27 participants (in NZ) + 3 remotely (in USA) Introduction, next S-RIP meeting date Brief chapter progress reports BADC facility, S-RIP website functions (also, commonly gridded data file discussion planned but no time for the NZ meeting, but done in the USA meeting) Overlap issues Advanced chapters

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22 Motivation and Goals The middle atmosphere and climate community use reanalyses widely to understand atmospheric processes and variability in the middle atmosphere, to validate climate models (e.g. CCMVal, CCMI), and, potentially, for trend analysis. Yet different reanalyses give different results for the same diagnostic - for example the global energy budget and hydrological cycle, the Brewer-Dobson circulation, stratospheric vortex weakening and intensification events, and large-scale wave activity at the tropical tropopause. There is thus a need for a coordinated reanalysis intercomparison project that shall start a comprehensive activity to compare all appropriate reanalysis data sets for key diagnostics to help understand the causes of differences and to use the results to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies. In addition, the reanalysis community will benefit from coordinated user feedback, which can lead to improvements in the next generation of reanalysis products. The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is an emerging SPARC activity that was proposed in 2012 (Fujiwara et al., 2012; Fujiwara and Jackson, 2013). The goals of S-RIP are to: Create a communication platform between the SPARC community and the reanalysis centres Understand current reanalysis products and to contribute to future reanalysis improvements in the middle atmosphere region Write up the results of the reanalysis intercomparison in peer reviewed papers and a SPARC report.

23 Scope By August 2012, a Working Group had been formed, and the reanalysis centre contacts for the project had been confirmed. The Working Group discussed chapter titles, co-leads, and initial contributors to the final SPARC report and organised an S-RIP Planning Meeting, which was held at the Met Office, Exeter, UK, from 29 April-1 May The purposes of the meeting were to finalise the report outline, to determine the diagnostics list and observational data for validation required for each chapter, to agree on the general guidelines and protocols, and to define the project timetable At the meeting it was decided that the project would focus predominantly on reanalyses (although some chapters may include diagnostics from operational analyses). Available and soon to be available reanalyses are shown in Table 1. For most of the chapters, we will compare newer reanalyses, i.e., MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-25/JCDAS, JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR, and 20CR. We also aim to include ERA-20C, ERA-SAT, MERRA-2, etc., when available. Some chapters may include older reanalyses such as R-1, R-2, and ERA-40, because they have been heavily used in the past and are still being used for certain studies, and to gain insight into potential shortcomings of past research results. For some chapters, only a subset of these reanalyses shall be used, since some reanalyses have already been shown to be poor for some studies (eg ERA-40 for polar processes), or do not extend to high enough levels (eg 20CR does not extend above the stratopause). At the beginning of each chapter an explanation will be given as to why specific reanalyses were included or excluded. The intercomparison period is , i.e., the satellite era, but some chapters will also consider the pre-satellite era before Given the wide use of ERA-40 (which only runs to 2002) a separate intercomparison for shall be carried out for some diagnostics and placed in an Appendix. Table 1. Global atmospheric reanalysis datasets available or soon to become available (latter in square brackets)

24 Outline Plan for S-RIP Report

25 Chapter 1: Introduction Leads: Masatomo Fujiwara, David Jackson The S-RIP motivation, goals, rationale and report structure are described.

26 Chapter 2: Description of the Reanalysis Systems Leads: Masatomo Fujiwara, David Tan, Craig Long Contributors: Jonathon Wright, all reanalysis centre contacts This chapter will include a detailed description of the forecast model, assimilation scheme and observational data assimilated for each reanalysis, together with information on each reanalysis stream and on what data are archived.

27 Chapter 3: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Dynamical Variables Leads: Craig Long, Masatomo Fujiwara Contributors: Sean Davis, Daniel Mitchell, all other chapter co-leads A climatology of major dynamical variables (eg zonal mean temperature, zonal mean wind), created from an ensemble of the newer reanalyses for the period ( , allowing comparison with ERA-40, in the appendix) will be created on both standard pressure levels and potential temperature levels. Various key plots of the ensemble climatological means and individual reanalysis anomalies from these means will be created and presented in an online atlas. Inter-reanalysis variations will be quantified. Independent observations (ie not used in the reanalyses) which can be used for validation include radiosondes, lidars, rocketsondes and various satellites.

28 Chapter 4: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Ozone and Water Vapour Leads: Michaela Hegglin, Sean Davis Contributors: Susann Tegtmeier, Masatomo Fujiwara, all other chapter coleads This chapter will include a detailed evaluation of ozone and water vapour in the reanalyses using a range of observations obtained from sonde, aircraft, and satellite instruments. The diagnostics considered will include climatological evaluations, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, and trends. Other, more event-based diagnostics such as the tape recorder, QBO, and polar dehydration will be used to understand differences in the climatological evaluations, while detailed analysis of these processes will be covered in the advanced chapters. In addition, relevant information on the assimilated ozone and water vapour, and the prognostic representation of these fields in the reanalyses will be summarized.

29 Chapter 5: Brewer Dobson Circulation Leads: Thomas Birner, Beatriz Monge-Sanz Contributors: Sean Davis, Hella Garny, Harald Boenisch, Gabrielle Stiller, Bernard Legras, Howard Roscoe, Darryn Waugh, Thomas Reddmann, Peter Haynes, Kota Okamoto, Kaoru Sato This chapter will evaluate stratospheric circulation using diagnostics such as the age-of-air (mean age and spectrum), metrics for the strength of mixing barriers, and residual circulation quantities. Tendencies for heat and momentum as well as analysis increments will be considered. Eulerian chemistry transport models and trajectory calculations will be used. Results will be validated against satellite, ground-based, balloon, and aircraft observations of SF 6, CO 2, and NO 2, including the recent MIPAS datasets. Both climatological results and trends in the main diagnostics will be examined.

30 Chapter 6: Stratosphere Troposphere Coupling Leads: Edwin Gerber, Yulia Zyulyaeva Contributors: Mark Baldwin, Thomas Birner, Thomas Bracegirdle, Amy Butler, Natalia Calvo, Lesley Gray, Steven Hardiman, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Karpechko, Kirstin Krüger, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Daniel Mitchell, Andrew Orr, Christina Pena-Ortiz, Thomas Reichler, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi This chapter covers two-way coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere, focusing in particular on extra-tropical coupling on daily to intraseasonal time scales, and how this shorter-term variability is modulated on interannual time scales (e.g., by ENSO). The chapter will synthesize and compare established approaches with more recent metrics to characterize planetary wave coupling and blocking, coupling of the zonal mean flow (e.g. the annular modes), and the mechanism(s) connecting the stratosphere and troposphere (e.g., changes in tropopause height). There has been recent discussion on how to best characterize Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSWs). The established and alternative definitions of SSWs and the resulting impact on diagnostics of stratospheretroposphere coupling will be explored.

31 Chapter 7: Extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Leads: Cameron Homeyer, Gloria Manney Contributors: Michaela Hegglin, Sean Davis, Thomas Birner The diagnostics to be produced will include tropopause characterisation by commonly used methods, multiple tropopause characteristics, the tropopause inversion layer, UTLS jet characteristics, estimates of horizontal boundaries between the ExUTLS and TTL, air parcel histories using trajectory calculations, and measures of Rossby wave breaking. These diagnostics will be related to analysis of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). This chapter will also have a section that reviews diagnostics commonly applied to both the ExUTLS and TTL.

32 Chapter 8: Tropical Tropopause Layer Leads: Susann Tegtmeier, Kirstin Krüger Contributors: Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, Stephan Fueglistaler, Masatomo Fujiwara, Michaela Hegglin, V. Mohr, I. Pisso, Jonathon Wright The diagnostics will include the general TTL structure (cold point and lapse rate tropopause, etc.), clouds and convection (cloud fraction profiles, OLR, etc.), diabatic heat budget, transport (Lagrangian cold point, residence time based on vertical winds and heating rates, etc.), wave activity, and long-term changes (e.g., tropical belt widening).

33 Chapter 9: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Variability Leads: James Anstey, Lesley Gray Contributors: Yoshio Kawatani, Nedjeljka Žagar, Hua Lu, Masatomo Fujiwara Diagnostics for this chapter will include analysis of the tropical QBO, its extra-tropical teleconnections (as well as other relevant teleconnections such as with ENSO and the solar cycle), its zonal momentum budget, and spectral characteristics of tropical waves including modal analysis and equatorial wave energetics. Observations for validation include operational and campaign radiosondes, rocketsondes, and satellites such as HIRDLS and SABER. Information regarding non-orographic gravity wave parameterization (if present) and analysis increments may also be utilised.

34 Chapter 10: Polar Processes Leads: Michelle Santee, Alyn Lambert Contributors: Gloria Manney, Simon Chabrillat, Edith Botek This chapter will cover the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, chlorine activation, denitrification and dehydration, and (possibly) chemical ozone loss in the lower stratospheric winter polar vortices. Focus will be on process-oriented and case studies. The chapter will also include a review of previous works showing significant biases in lower stratospheric temperature, winds, or vortex strength / structure / evolution which render some reanalyses (e.g., R-1, R-2, and ERA-40) unsuitable for polar process studies.

35 Chapter 11: Upper Stratosphere and Lower Mesosphere Leads: Diane Pendlebury, Lynn Harvey Contributors: Gloria Manney, Peter Hitchcock, Takatoshi Sakazaki This chapter will look at diagnostics including the Semi-Annual Oscillation, climatology of the winter polar vortex, SSWs (focusing on stratopause evolution and mesospheric cooling), waves (eg tides, the two-day wave, and normal modes), inertial instability at the tropical stratopause, and Hadley circulation in the stratopause region. Observations including SABER, MLS, the NDACC database, and CMAM30 (a model nudged to reanalysis), will be used for validation purposes and to extend our knowledge of the state of the middle atmosphere. NOGAPS ALPHA may also be considered for case studies.

36 Chapter 12: Synthesis Summary Leads: Masatomo Fujiwara, David Jackson Key findings, common patterns in results, recommendations for future research and reanalysis development are summarized.