Forecast verification study for McMurdo and Palmer Stations: Preliminary Results

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1 Forecast verification study for McMurdo and Palmer Stations: Preliminary Results Jonas V. Asuma Antarctic Meteorological Research Center University of Wisconsin - Madison 3 rd Antarctic Meteorological Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting Workshop - Madison, WI June 11 th, 28

2 Motivation

3 Forecast Sources

4 McMurdo Forecast Sources Resident SPAWAR Forecasters Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) FORECA provides forecasts for MSN.com Finnish Company Largest in Nordic Countries Data source not listed The Weather Channel (weather.com( weather.com) US company Data source not listed Weather Underground (wunderground.com( wunderground.com) International forecasts NCEP AVN model run

5 Palmer Forecast Sources SPAWAR Forecasters in Charleston AMPS send out Town forecasts daily Qwikcast.com National Weather Service.5 GFS model for international forecasts METAR s from nearest location (Falkland Islands) Weather Underground International forecasts NCEP AVN model run

6 Palmer/McMurdo Town Forecast

7 Method

8 Method Compared High and Low Temperature forecasts versus the McMurdo/Palmer Station monthly climatologies Temperature Universally forecasted across sources Statistical analysis performed Computed the, Accumulated, Average, Root Mean-Squared (RMSE), Accumulated MSE, Maximum, and Correlation Coefficient Produced scatter plots to visualize error

9 Results

10 McMurdo High/Low Temperatures

11 McMurdo Station Forecasts: High Temperatures MCM High Temp Obs vs. MCM High Temp (C) Obs High Temp Obs vs. MSN High Temp (C) Correlation = Correlation = MSN High Temp Obs High Temp Wx Channel High Temp Obs vs. WX Channel High Temp (C) Obs High Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground High Temp (C) Correlation = Correlation = Wx Underground High Temp Obs High Temp

12 McMurdo Station Forecasts: High Temperatures (148 days) Forecast Source Acc. Average Max RMSE MCM º Corr. Coef Wx Und º.8527 Wx º.363 Channel MSN Wx º.7462

13 McMurdo Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures Obs vs. MCM Low Temp (C) Obs vs. MSN Low Temp (C) MCM Low Temp Obs Low Temp Correlation = Correlation = MSN Low Temp Obs Low Temp Wx Channel Low Temp Obs vs. Wx Channel Low Temp (C) Obs Low Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground Low Temp (C) Correlation = Correlation = Wx Underground Low Temp Obs Low Temp

14 McMurdo Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures (164 days) Forecast Source Sum Average Max RMSE MCM º Corr. Coef..885 Wx Und º.8341 MSN Wx º.7244 Wx Channel º.4851

15 Palmer High/Low Temperatures

16 Palmer Station Forecasts: High Temperatures PAL High Temp Qwikcast High Temp Obs vs. PAL High Temp (C) Obs High Temp Obs vs. Qwikcast High Temp (C) Correlation = Obs High Temp Correlation = Wx Undergound High Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground High Temp (C) Correlation = Obs High Temp

17 Palmer Station Forecasts: High Temperatures (178 days) Forecast Source Sum Average Max RMSE PAL º Corr. Coef..867 Wx Und º.724 Qwikcast º.7148

18 Palmer Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures PAL Low Temp Wx Underground Low Temp Obs vs. PAL Low Temp (C) Obs Low Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground Low Temp (C) Obs Low Temp Correlation = Correlation = Qwikcast Low Temp Obs vs. Qwikcast Low Temp (C) Obs Low Temp Correlation =.84359

19 Palmer Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures (187 days) Forecast Source Sum Average Max RMSE PAL º Corr. Coef Qwikcast º.843 Wx Und º.699

20 Conclusions/Future Work

21 Conclusions SPAWAR forecasters most accurate Accumulated, Average, and Mean Squared Despite forecast hiccups Average and Mean Squared most significant indications of accuracy Correlation Coefficient not the best indicator of forecast accuracy

22 Future Work Perform similar study but: Use longer dataset preferably an entire year Compare multiple parameters Wind direction/speed, precipitation, cloud cover Compare more forecast sources Other private forecast companies i.e. AccuWeather

23 Acknowledgements Matt Lazzara,, Linda Keller, AMRC, Chester Clogston,, Ken Edele,, Harry Stockman, and NSF

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