Trends of Drought in the Canadian Prairies

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1 Trends of Drought in the Canadian Prairies Kit Szeto 1, Eva Mekis 1, Seung-Ki Min 1, Walter Skinner 1, Lei Wen 2, Charles Lin 1 and Stefan De Young 1 1 Environment Canada 2 McGill University

2 Motivations Results from recent global drought trend studies (e.g. Dai et al. 2004; Burke et al. 2006) suggest that the Canadian Prairies is one of the regions that has exhibited a significant increasing drought trend The Canadian Prairies is a major agricultural region and severe droughts in the area are amongst the most costly natural disasters for Canada Carrying out a comprehensive regional study of Prairie drought trends is warranted

3 Motivations.. Cont. Source: Dai et al. 2004

4 Methodology and Datasets Use multiple regional drought indices datasets to assess linear trends, and changes in other attributes of, Prairie droughts Associate identified drought trends with temporal behavior of regional water and energy budgets Datasets: PDSI and SPI from adjusted station data; soil moisture data from VIC model simulations forced with station data; ERA40 for water and energy budgets Focused on the period and over the Canadian Prairies

5

6 Simulated Soil Moisture Data with the VIC Model 1. Reconstructing a 56-yr prairie s drought history using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface macroscale hydrology model driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation from 1 January, 1950 to 31 December, soil layers: 1-20 cm; cm

7 Annual Prairie Drought Trend Maps ( /10y) ( /10y) ( /1y) ( /1y) (mm/d/y) Dots denote data locations and Pink denotes trends that are significant at 95% level

8 Growing Season (Apr-Sep) Prairie Drought Trend Maps ( /10y) ( /10y) ( /1y) ( /1y) (mm/d/y) Dots denote data locations and Pink denotes trends that are significant at 95% level

9 Growing Season (Apr-Sep) Prairie Drought Trend Maps ( /10y) ( /10y) ( /1y) ( /1y) (mm/d/y) Dots denote data locations and Pink denotes trends that are significant at 95% level

10 Annual timeseries of drought indices averaged over Apr-Sep and over the western Prairies Correlations

11 Annual timeseries of CANGRID Ts averaged over Apr-Sep and over the western Prairies

12 Annual timeseries of ERA40 ET averaged over Apr-Sep and over the western Prairies

13 Seasonal Mean Drying Trends Observations (GHCN) IPCC AR4 Model (20C, 70 runs) Inter-model Agreement > 60% MAM JJA Observed and simulated patterns are not consistent Large inter-model uncertainty

14 Summary Quite consistent drying patterns exhibited in all indices with significant drying over the western Prairies on the annual time scale Similar spatial pattern for growing season drying trends but trends are only significant in PDSI Growing season drying trends in PDSI over the western Prairies are reflected in both the increased frequency and severity of droughts over the region but such attributes are not evident in other indices Moderate warming trends were observed during the growing season over the western Prairies but corresponding increases in ERA40 evapotranspiration is less evident -> cautions for interpretation of the PDSI trends IPCC AR4 GCM results are not good enough for regional drought trend detections

15 Magnitude of Correction for Precipitation Precipitation Rain Snow Ratio = Corrected / Not corrected period Further information: Éva Mekis, CRD, Environment Canada

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