This section provides a hazard profile and vulnerability assessment of severe storm hazards for the Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP).

Transcription

1 5.4.6 Severe Storm This section provides a hazard profile and vulnerability assessment of severe storm hazards for the Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) Hazard Profile This section presents information regarding the description, extent, location, previous occurrences and losses, and probability of future occurrences for the severe storm hazard. Description For the purpose of this HMP update and as deemed appropriated by Otsego County, the severe storm hazard includes thunderstorms, lightning, hailstorms, windstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes/tropical storms; which are defined in the sections below. Thunderstorms A thunderstorm is a local storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud and accompanied by lightning and thunder (National Weather Service [NWS] 2009). A thunderstorm forms from a combination of moisture; rapidly rising warm air; and a force capable of lifting air, such as a warm front, cold front, a sea breeze, or a mountain. Thunderstorms form from the equator to as far north as Alaska. Although thunderstorms generally affect a small area when they occur, they have the potential to become dangerous due to their ability to generate tornadoes, hailstorms, strong winds, flash flooding, and lightning. Thunderstorms can lead to heavy rain induced flooding, landslides, strong winds, and lightning. Roads may become impassable from flooding, downed trees or power lines, or a landslide. Downed power lines can lead to loss of utility services, such as water, phone, and electricity. Typical thunderstorms are 15 miles in diameter and last an average of 30 minutes. During the summer, thunderstorms are responsible for most of the rainfall. Lightning Lighting is a bright flash of electrical energy produced by a thunderstorm. The resulting clap of thunder is the result of a shock wave created by the rapid heating and cooling of the air in the lightning channel. All thunderstorms produce lightning and are very dangerous. Lightning ranks as one of the top weather killers in the United States, killing approximately 50 people and injuring hundreds each year. Lightning can occur anywhere there is a thunderstorm. Lightning can be cloud to air, cloud to cloud, and cloud to ground. Figure demonstrates the variety of lightning types. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

2 Figure Types of Lightning Source: Weather Underground date unknown Hailstorms Hail forms inside a thunderstorm or other storms with strong updrafts of warm air and downdrafts of cold water. If a water droplet is picked up by the updrafts, it can be carried well above the freezing level. Water droplets freeze when temperatures reach 32 degrees Fahrenheit ( F) or colder. As the frozen droplet begins to fall, it may thaw as it moves into warmer air toward the bottom of the thunderstorm. However, the droplet may be picked up again by another updraft and carried back into the cold air and re-freeze. With each trip above and below the freezing level, the frozen droplet adds another layer of ice. The frozen droplet, with many layers of ice, falls to the ground as hail. Most hail is small and typically less than (2 inches in diameter (NWS 2010). Figure shows how hail is formed within thunderstorms. Figure Hail Formation in Thunderstorms Source: Encyclopedia Britannica 2011 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

3 Windstorms Wind begins with differences in air pressures and occurs through rough horizontal movement of air caused by uneven heating of the earth s surface. Wind occurs at all scales, from local breezes lasting a few minutes to global winds resulting from solar heating of the earth. High winds are often associated with other severe weather events such as thunderstorms, derechos, tornadoes, nor easters, hurricanes, and tropical storms (all discussed further in this section). Tornadoes A tornado appears as a rotating, funnel-shaped cloud that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground with whirling winds that can reach 250 miles per hour (mph). Damage paths can be greater than 1 mile wide and 50 miles long. Tornadoes typically develop from either a severe thunderstorm or hurricane as cool air rapidly overrides a layer of warm air. Tornadoes typically move at speeds between 30 and 125 mph and can generate combined wind speeds (forward motion and speed of the whirling winds) exceeding 300 mph. The lifespan of a tornado rarely is longer than 30 minutes (FEMA 1997). Tornadoes can occur at any time of the year, with peak seasons at different times for different states (National Severe Storms Laboratory [NSSL] 2013). Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are fueled by a different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms such as Nor easters and polar lows. The characteristic that separates a tropical storm from another cyclonic system is that at any height in the atmosphere, the center of a tropical storm will be warmer than its surroundings, a phenomenon called warm core storm systems (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013). Tropical cyclones strengthen when water evaporated from the ocean is released as the saturated air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor contained in the moist air. Tropical cyclones begin as disturbed areas of weather, often referred to as tropical waves. As the storm organizes, it is designated as a tropical depression. A tropical storm system is characterized by a low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds of 39 to 73 mph and heavy rain. A hurricane is a tropical storm that attains hurricane status when its wind speed reaches 74 mph or higher. Tropical systems may develop in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast, or may develop in the warm tropical waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. These storms may move up the Atlantic coast of the United States and impact the eastern seaboard, or move into the United States through the states along the Gulf Coast, bringing wind and rain as far north as New England before moving offshore and heading east. Despite being an inland county, coastal storms, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, can impact Otsego County (New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services [NYS DHSES] 2014). Hurricanes and tropical storms can impact Otsego County from June to November, the official eastern U.S. hurricane season; however, late July to early October is the most likely period for hurricanes and tropical storms to impact the County due to the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean waters (NYS DHSES 2014). Although one of the most severe impacts associated with hurricanes is storm surge, due to Otsego County s location, storm surge is not a concern for the County and has not been detailed in this profile. Extent The extent (severity or magnitude) of a severe storm is largely dependent upon the most damaging aspects of each type of severe weather. This section describes the extent of thunderstorms, lighting, hail, windstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes and tropical storms in Otsego County. Historical data presented in Table shows the most powerful severe weather records in Otsego County. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

4 Table Severe Storm Extent in Otsego County (1950 to 2018) Extent of Severe Storms in Otsego County Largest Hailstone on Record Strongest Tornado on Record Highest Wind Speed on Record Strongest Tropical Storm/Hurricane on Record Thunderstorms 3 inches F3 60 knots (69 mph) Tropical Storm NWS considers a thunderstorm severe if it produces damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or higher, hail 1 inch (quarter size) in diameter or larger, or tornadoes (NWS 2010). Severe thunderstorm watches and warnings are issued by the local NWS office and NOAA s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). NWS and SPC will update the watches and warnings and will notify the public when they are no longer in effect. Watches and warnings for thunderstorms in New York are defined as follows: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued when there is evidence based on radar or a reliable spotter report that a thunderstorm is producing (or is forecast to produce) wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, structural wind damage, and hail 1 inch in diameter or greater. A warning will include the location of the storm, the municipalities that are expected to be impacted, and the primary threat associated with the severe thunderstorm warning. After it has been issued, the NWS office will follow up periodically with Severe Weather Statements, which contain updated information on the severe thunderstorm and will let the public know when the warning is no longer in effect (NWS 2009, 2010). Severe Thunderstorm Watches are issued by the SPC when conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms over a larger-scale region for a duration of at least 3 hours. Tornadoes are not expected in such situations, but isolated tornado development may also occur. Watches are normally issued well in advance of the actual occurrence of severe weather. During the watch, NWS will keep the public informed on developments happening in the watch area and will also notify the public when the watch has expired or been cancelled (NWS 2009, 2010). Special Weather State for Near Severe Thunderstorms bulletins are issued for strong thunderstorms that are below severe levels, but still may have some adverse impacts. Usually, they are issued for the threat of wind gusts of 40 to 58 mph or small hail less than one (1) inch in diameter (NWS 2010). In addition, the SPC issues severe thunderstorm risk maps based on the likelihood of different severities of thunderstorms. Figure shows the SPC s severe thunderstorm risk categories. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

5 Figure Severe Thunderstorm Risk Categories. Source: NOAA SPC 2017 Lightning Lightning is most often associated with moderate to severe thunderstorms. The severity of lightning refers to the frequency of lightning strikes during a storm. The New York City Office of Emergency Management (NYC OEM) notes that lightning strikes occur with moderate frequency in the State of New York, with 3.8 strikes occurring per square mile each year. Multiple devices are available to track and monitor the frequency of lightning. Hail The severity of a hail storm is measured by duration, hail size, and geographic extent. Most hail stones from hail storms are made up of variety of sizes. Only the very largest hail stones pose serious risk to people, if exposed (NYS DHSES 2014). The size of hail is estimated by comparing it to a known object. Table describes the different sizes of hail as compared to real-world objects and lists approximate measurements. Table Hail Size Description Diameter (in inches) Description Diameter (in inches) Pea 0.25 Golf ball 1.75 Marble or mothball 0.50 Hen s egg 2.00 Penny or dime 0.75 Tennis ball 2.75 Nickel 0.88 Baseball 2.75 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

6 Description Diameter (in inches) Description Diameter (in inches) Quarter 1.00 Tea cup 3.00 Half dollar 1.25 Grapefruit 4.00 Walnut or ping pong ball 1.50 Softball 4.50 Source: NOAA 2012; NYS DHSES 2014 Windstorms Table provides the NWS descriptions of winds during wind-producing events. Table NWS Wind Descriptions Descriptive Term Strong, dangerous, or damaging Sustained Wind Speed (mph) 40 Very windy Windy Breezy, brisk, or blustery None 5-15 or Light or light and variable wind 0-5 Source: NWS 2015 NWS issues advisories and warnings for winds, which are normally site-specific. High wind advisories, watches, and warnings are issued by the NWS when wind speeds may pose a hazard or may be life threatening. The criterion for each of these varies from state to state. Wind warnings and advisories for New York State are as follows: High Wind Warnings are issued when sustained winds of 40 mph or greater are forecast for 1 hour or longer, or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater are forecast for any duration. Wind Advisories are issued when sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph are forecast for one 1 hour or longer, or wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are forecast for any duration (NWS 2015). Tornado The magnitude or severity of a tornado is categorized using the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale (EF Scale). Figure illustrates the relationship between EF ratings, wind speed, and expected tornado damage. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

7 Figure Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale Ratings, Wind Speeds, and Expected Damage Source: NWS 2018 Tornado watches and warning are issued by the local NWS office. A tornado watch is released when tornadoes are possible in an area. A tornado warning means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. The current average lead time for tornado warnings is 13 minutes. Occasionally, tornadoes develop so rapidly, that little, if any, advance warning is possible (NOAA 2011). Hurricanes and Tropical Storms The extent of a hurricane or tropical storm is commonly categorized in accordance with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which assigns a designation of tropical storm for storms with sustained wind speeds below 74 mph and a hurricane category rating of 1-to-5 based on a hurricane s increasing sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Tropical storms and Category 1 and 2 hurricanes are dangerous and require preventative measures (NOAA 2013). Figure presents this scale, which is used to estimate the potential property damage and flooding expected when a hurricane makes landfall. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

8 Figure The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Source: Disaster Preparedness Portal 2017 Mean Return Period In evaluating the potential for hazard events of a given magnitude, a mean return period (MRP) is often used. The MRP provides an estimate of the magnitude of an event that may occur within any given year based on past recorded events. MRP is the average period of time, in years, between occurrences of a particular hazard event, equal to the inverse of the annual frequency of exceedance (Dinicola 2009). Figure shows the number of hurricanes expected for the 100-year mean return period in the northeast region. Otsego County is on the edge of the area that could expect 20 hurricanes in a 100-year period. Figure Number of Hurricanes for a 100-year Mean Return Period Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2005 Notes: Red circle indicates Otsego County s approximate location within the region. The map shows the number of hurricanes expected to occur during a 100-year mean return period based on historical data using the following scale: Light blue area: 20 to 40 hurricanes expected in a 100-year period. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

9 Figure shows the estimated maximum 3-second gust wind speeds that can be anticipated in the study area associated with the 500-year MRP event. These peak wind speed projections were generated using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) model runs. HAZUS-MH 4.2 did not generate the hurricane track for the 100- and 500-year probabilistic events. HAZUS-MH 4.2 estimated the maximum 3-second gust wind speeds for Otsego County to be below 39 mph for the 100-year MRP event and not strong enough to be considered a tropical storm. The maximum 3-second gust wind speeds for Otsego County range from 54 to 64 mph for the 500-year MRP event (tropical storm). The associated impacts and losses from these 100-year and 500-year MRP hurricane event model runs are reported in the Vulnerability Assessment (Section ). Figure Wind Speeds for the 500-Year Mean Return Period Event Source: HAZUS-MH 4.2 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

10 Location All of Otsego County is exposed to hail, lightning, windstorms and high wind, thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes and tropical storms and all of the County is subject to high winds from severe weather events. According to the FEMA Winds Zones of the United States map, Otsego County is located in Wind Zone II, where wind speeds can reach up to 160 mph. Figure illustrates wind zones across the United States, which indicate the impacts of the strength and frequency of wind activity per region. The information on the figure is based on 40 years of tornado data and 100 years of hurricane data collected by FEMA. Figure Wind Zones in the United States Source: FEMA 2012 Note: The black oval indicates the approximate location of Otsego County. Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with severe storms throughout New York State and Otsego County; therefore, the loss and impact information for many events varies depending on the source. The accuracy of monetary figures discussed is based only on the available information in cited sources. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

11 FEMA Major Disasters and Emergency Declarations Between 1954 and August 2018, Otsego County has been included in 14 declarations for severe storm-related events classified as one or a combination of the following disaster types: severe storm, straight-line winds, coastal storm, hurricane/tropical storm, and tornado (FEMA 2018). Table lists these events. Table Severe Storm-Related FEMA Declarations for Otsego County, 1954 to August 2018 Date(s) of Event FEMA Declaration Event Type Number 1/19/1996-1/30/1996 DR-1095 Flood: Severe Storms and Flooding 5/31/1998-6/2/1998 DR-1222 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 5/3/200-8/12/2000 DR-1335 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 5/13/2004-6/17/2004 DR-1534 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 4/2/2005-4/4/2005 DR-1589 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 6/26/2006-7/10/2006 DR-1650 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 11/16/ /17/2006 DR-1670 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 3/13/2010-3/31/2010 DR-1899 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding 8/26/2011-9/5/2011 DR-4020 Hurricane: Hurricane Irene 9/7/2011-9/11/2011 EM-3341 Severe Storms and Flooding: Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee 9/7/2011-9/11/2011 DR-4031 Severe Storms and Flooding: Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee 10/27/ /8/2012 EM-3351 Hurricane: Hurricane Sandy 6/26/2013-7/10/2013 DR-4129 Flood: Severe Storms and Flooding 5/13/2014-5/22/2014 DR-4180 Severe Storm: Severe Storms and Flooding Source: FEMA 2018 U.S. Department of Agriculture Disaster Declarations The Secretary of Agriculture from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is authorized to designate counties as disaster areas to make emergency loans to producers suffering losses in those counties and in counties that are contiguous to a designated county. There have been four USDA agricultural disasters since 2012 attributed to severe weather: S Hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms. S Flood, flash flooding; excessive rain, moisture, humidity; hail; wind, high winds. S Flood, flash flooding; excessive rain, moisture, humidity; hail; wind, high winds. S Excessive rain, moisture, humidity. The USDA crop loss data provide another indicator of the severity of previous events. Additionally, crop losses can have a significant impact on the economy by reducing produce sales and purchases. Such impacts may have long-term consequences, particularly if crop yields are low the following years as well. USDA records indicate that Otsego County has experienced crop losses from severe storm events. Table provides details regarding crop losses in Otsego County according to USDA records. Table USDA Crop Losses from Severe Storms in Otsego County Year Crop Type Cause of Loss Losses 2011 Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $$64, Corn Hurricane/Tropical Depression $128, Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $ Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $393, Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

12 Source: USDA 2018 Hurricane Tracks Year Crop Type Cause of Loss Losses 2014 Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $122, Soybeans Hail $ Soybeans Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $26, Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $68, Soybeans Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $17, Corn Hail $4, Corn Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $176, Soybeans Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $47, Figure , from the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker illustrates the tracks of storms between 1842 and 2018 within 65 miles of Otsego County. Otsego County is not frequently impacted by hurricanes, tropical storms, or tropical depressions but has recently experienced the direct and indirect landward effects associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 and Superstorm Sandy in Figure Historical Hurricane Tracks within 65 miles of Otsego County, 1842 to 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

13 Source: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks 2018 Note: Category refers to tropical cyclone strength. TS: Tropical Storm, TD: Tropical Depression, ET: Extra-tropical Storm, H1: Category 1 Hurricane, H2: Category 2 Hurricane, H3: Category 3 Hurricane, H4: Category 4 Hurricane. Otsego County is circled in red. Severe Storm Events The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Events database records severe storm events. For this 2018 HMP Update, known severe storm events that have impacted Otsego County between 2012 and 2018 are identified in Table With severe storm documentation for New York State and Otsego County being so extensive, not all sources have been identified or researched. Therefore, Table may not include all events that have occurred in the County. For events prior to 2012, refer to Appendix X. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

14 Table Severe Storm Events in Otsego County, Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? July 23, 2012 Hail N/A N/A August 9, 2012 Hail, Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A September 6, 2012 Hail N/A N/A September 8, 2012 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A Losses / Impacts During the afternoon, an upper level disturbance moved east toward central New York from southern Ontario, Canada. Daytime heating and instability combined with favorable wind parameters in the atmosphere to produce severe thunderstorms. Many reports were received of wind damage and very large hail. Hail was reported in Hyde Park, the Town of Milford, Schuyler Lake, Worcester Lake, and the Town of Westford. Showers and thunderstorms developed in an increasingly unstable environment ahead of a weak disturbance that moved into central New York during the afternoon. Several of these thunderstorms reached severe levels, producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Hail was reported in Cooperstown. Trees were blown down in the Towns of Edmeston, Cherry Valley, and Milford. Showers and thunderstorms developed along, and ahead of a cold front that pushed through central New York during the afternoon. Several storms reached severe levels, producing isolated damaging wind reports and many reports of large hail. Some of the hail was as large as golf balls. Hail was reported in the Town of Milford, Colliersville, and the Towns of Otego and Oneonta. A strong cold front pushed east across central New York during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms accompanied the front, with several storms producing damaging wind gusts. In Schuyler Lake, metal roofing was blown off a house and a tree was uprooted. Branches were blown down in the Town of Oneonta. October 27- November 8, 2012 Superstorm Sandy EM-3351 Yes Otsego County s Medical Reserve Corps and American Red Cross offered sheltering. May 22, 2013 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A May 29, 2013 Hail N/A N/A June 2, 2013 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A A warm front lifted north of New York State during the late morning into the evening hours. This front resulted in a cluster of storms that produced large hail and wind damage. In Wells Bridge, a tree was blown down on primary wires and a car, resulting in $10K in property damage. In the Town of Milford, a tree was blown down on wires, which blocked County Highway 58, resulting in $5K in property damage. A stalled frontal boundary across central New York created an unstable airmass and allowed severe thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. Hail was reported in the Towns of Milford and Otego. Central New York was well into warm, moist and unstable air as a warm front was located across southern Canada. This led to the development of severe thunderstorms. In Fly Creek, trees and wires were blown down. In the Village of Richfield Springs, trees and wires were blown down. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

15 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? Losses / Impacts June 24, 2013 Hail, Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A An upper level disturbance in combination with an unstable airmass contributed to the development of severe thunderstorms across central New York. Hail was reported in Oneonta. Trees were blown down in the Town of Edmeston, the Village of Cooperstown, and the Town of Oneonta. June 26-July 10, 2013 Severe Storm DR-4180 Yes Severe storms and flooding impacted the region resulting in a disaster declaration. September 2, 2013 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A September 11, 2013 Hail N/A N/A October 7, 2013 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A May 22, 2014 Hail DR-4180 Yes June 16-17, 2014 Hail, Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A July 1, 2014 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A July 3, 2014 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A July 7, 2014 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A A strong cold front moving across the area resulted in severe thunderstorms developing across central New York. Trees were blown down throughout the Towns of Plainfield and Butternuts, resulting in $5K in property damage in each town. A warm and humid airmass, combined with the passage of an upper level wave, resulted in the development of severe thunderstorms across central New York. Hail was reported in the Village of Unadilla. A low-topped line of convection developed along a cold front and produced wind damage in central New York. Trees were blown down on State Route 7 near Unadilla resulting in $2K in property damage. Minor damage was reported in the Village of Gilbertsville, the Town of Oneonta, and the Town of Milford. Central New York was well into warm, moist, and unstable air as a warm front was located across the Hudson Valley and a cold front was located over western New York. This led to the development of severe thunderstorms. Hail was reported in the Village of Gilbertsville and the Town of Otego. A surface boundary combined with increasing instability during the afternoon hours resulted in severe thunderstorms over portions of New York state. Hail was reported in the Town of Pittsfield. Multiple trees were blown down in the Town of Otego, resulting in $5K in property damage. A moist and unstable airmass led to the development of several severe thunderstorms across central New York. Trees were blown down in the Town of Edmeston, the Village of Richfield Springs, the Village of Cooperstown, the Town of Morris, and the Town of Oneonta. A cold front moved across the Great Lakes and interacted with a warm and humid air mass over central New York being drawn northward from Hurricane Arthur. Favorable strong wind parameters resulted in numerous high wind reports along with an occasional large hail report. A tree fell against a house in Unadilla Forks, resulting in $5K in property damage. A weak warm front that moved in from the Great Lakes region allowed severe thunderstorms to develop across portions of central New York. Strong and organized low level wind shear resulted in damaging winds from all severe storms during the afternoon hours. Trees and wires were blown down in the Town of Oneonta and the Town of Laurens resulting in $10K in property damage in each town. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

16 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? July 9, 2014 Hail N/A N/A September 2, 2014 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A June 12, 2015 Funnel Cloud, Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A July 14, 2015 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A July 19, 2015 Thunderstorm Wind, Hail N/A N/A July 1, 2016 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A Losses / Impacts A strong upper level system moving across the region led to the development of numerous severe thunderstorms across central New York during the afternoon and evening hours of July 9th. With a tremendous favorable atmospheric wind pattern present, severe thunderstorms resulted in widespread wind damage along with several tornadoes. Hail was reported in the Towns of Milford and Westford. A cold front moved through central New York during the afternoon and evening hours. This front acted on a moist and unstable air mass, resulting in the development of numerous severe thunderstorms over New York State. Trees were blown down in Wells Bridge resulting in $5K in property damage. Wires were blown down in the Town of Oneonta resulting in $5K in property damage. A very unstable air mass was present Friday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifted north that morning across the state of Pennsylvania and New York. A shortwave aloft, embedded within the cyclonic flow, interacted with this front and showers and thunderstorms developed over central New York. Late Friday afternoon the front started to slowly shift southward as a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop along the front into the late evening hours as it moved southward into Pennsylvania. These storms produced damaging winds and large hail. A thunderstorm developed over the area and produced a rotating wall cloud. A funnel was reported with this wall cloud in West Exeter and the Town of Maryland. The thunderstorm resulted in trees being knocked over in the Town of Otsego, the Town of Morris, the Village of Gilbertsville, the Town of Milford and the Town of Laurens. Property damage reported included $15K in the Town of New Lisbon, $15K in the Town of Unadilla, $10K in the Town of Oneonta, and $5K in Schenevus. A potent upper level trough was located over northern Quebec. This trough extended south toward the Great Lakes region. This trough slowly drifted east and supported an area of low pressure over northern Ohio. This low-pressure system drifted east and pushed a warm front across central New York early Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front late Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of and along the cold front. Some of these storms became severe and produced severe winds. A severe thunderstorm produced severe winds as it moved across the area. The thunderstorm resulted in trees being knocked over in Wells Bridge and the Village of Cooperstown. A severe thunderstorm produced severe winds and large hail as it moved across the area. The thunderstorm resulted in scattered trees and wires down in the Town of Laurens, the Town of Milford and the Town of Oneonta. This storm also produced 1-1/4-inch hail in the Town of Laurens. The Town of Oneonta reported $10K in property damage. A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe. This thunderstorm resulted in trees being knocked over in Fly Creek and the Town of Cherry Valley. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

17 Dates of Event Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? Losses / Impacts July 15, 2016 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A August 13, 2016 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A September 8, 2016 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A June 5, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A July 24, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A August 12, 2017 Thunderstorm Wind N/A N/A Sources: NOAA-NCDC 2018; FEMA 2018; Otsego County 2018 Notes: FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency mph miles per hour A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe. This thunderstorm resulted in two trees being knocked over in the Town of Worcester. Showers and thunderstorms developed across the region Saturday afternoon. These storms developed ahead of a strong storm system within a very warm, extremely moist and unstable atmosphere. As these storms moved northeast, some of these storms became severe. A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe. This thunderstorm resulted in multiple trees and wires being knocked over throughout the county. The Town of Edmeston reported $10K in property damage. A thunderstorm developed over the region and quickly became severe. This thunderstorm produced severe winds which resulted in trees and wires being knocked over near the Town of Edmeston. A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe, producing severe winds and knocking over multiple trees and wires mainly in the northeastern part of the County. This storm also knocked over trees in the Town of Cherry Valley and the Town of Milford. This thunderstorm produced severe winds measured at 52 knots. The Town of Middlefield reported $10K in property damage. A surface low pressure system moved across the state of New York and pushed a frontal boundary into the state of New York and Pennsylvania. Showers and thunderstorms developed along this boundary as an upper level storm system moved across the northeast Monday afternoon. As the storms moved to the east, some of these storms became severe and produced damaging winds. A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe. This thunderstorm produced severe winds and knocked over trees resulting in $5K in property damage in the Town of Edmeston. A cold front moved into western New York and Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon, and showers and thunderstorms quickly developed along and ahead of the front. The front slowly moved east and propagated into a very unstable environment. As the front moved east, supercells developed ahead of the approaching front. As these storms moved east, some of these storms produced damaging winds and large hail. A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe. This thunderstorm produced severe winds and knocked over trees and wires. The Village of Cooperstown reported $8K in property damage. The Town of Morris reported $5K in property damage. The Town of Laurens reported $10K in property damage. The Town of Milford reported $5K in property damage. The Town of Worcester reported $5K in property damage. East Worcester reported $10K in property damage. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

18 Table documents the total number of severe storm events that have occurred between 1950 and 2018, based on the NOAA-NCEI database and National Hurricane Center records. Table Severe Storm Events Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2018 Total Total Property Hazard Type Fatalities Total Injuries Damage ($) Funnel Cloud Hail K 10K Total Crop Damage ($) Heavy Rain High Wind K 0 Hurricane* Lightning K 0 Strong Wind K 0 Thunderstorm Wind M 0 Tornado M 0 Tropical Depression* Tropical Storm* TOTAL $6.456M $10K Source: NOAA-NCEI 2018; NHC 2018 Notes: Number of events were collected from NHC and includes events that occurred within 65 nautical miles of Otsego County. K: Thousand. M: Million. *: Based on NHC historical storm tracks, fatalities, injuries, property damage, and crop damage unavailable. Probability of Future Occurrences Otsego County is expected to continue experiencing direct and indirect impacts of severe storms annually. These storms may induce secondary hazards such as flooding and utility failure. Table summarizes data regarding the probability of occurrences of severe storm events in Otsego County. Based on historic occurrences, thunderstorm events are the most common in Otsego County, followed by hail events. The information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is based solely on NOAA-NCEI storm events database results. Table Probability of Occurrence of Severe Storm Events in Otsego County Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2018 Recurrence Interval (in years) Probability of Event Occurring in Any Given Year % Chance of Occurring in Any Given Year Rate of Hazard Type Occurrence Funnel Cloud Hail Heavy Rain High Wind Hurricane/Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression 3 Lightning Strong Wind Thunderstorm Wind Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

19 Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and 2018 Rate of Occurrence Recurrence Interval (in years) Probability of Event Occurring in Any Given Year % Chance of Occurring in Any Given Year Tornado Total Source: NOAA-NCDC 2018 Notes: Probability was calculated using the available data provided in the NOAA-NCDC storm events database. * Any probability greater than 100% was rounded to 100%. In Section 5.3, the identified hazards of concern for Otsego County were ranked. The probability of occurrence, or likelihood of the event, is one parameter used for ranking hazards. Based on historical records and input from the Planning Partnership, the probability of occurrence for severe storms in the county is considered frequent (hazard event is likely to occur within 25 years). Climate Change Impacts Climate change is beginning to affect both people and resources in Otsego County, and these impacts are projected to continue growing. The Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change in New York State (ClimAID) was undertaken to provide decision-makers with information on the State s vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and scientific knowledge (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority [NYSERDA] 2011). Each region in New York State, as defined by ClimAID, has attributes that will be affected by climate change. Otsego County is part of Region 3, Southern Tier. In Region 3, it is estimated that temperatures will increase by 4.4 ºF to 6.3 ºF by the 2050s and 5.7 ºF to 9.9 ºF by the 2080s (baseline of 47.5 ºF, middle-range projection). Precipitation totals will increase between 4 percent and 10 percent by the 2050s and 6 to 14 percent by the 2080s (baseline of 35.0 inches, middle-range projection). Table displays the projected seasonal precipitation change for Southern Tier ClimAID Region (NYSERDA 2014). Table Projected Seasonal Precipitation Change in Region 3, 2050s (% change) Winter Spring Summer Fall +5 to to to to +10 Source: NYSERDA 2011 The projected increase in precipitation is expected to fall in heavy downpours and less in light rains. Downpours are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity, a change which has the potential to affect drinking water; heighten the risk of riverine flooding; flood key rail lines, roadways and transportation hubs; and increase delays and hazards related to extreme weather events (NYSERDA 2011). Less frequent rainfall during the summer months may impact the ability of water supply systems. Increasing water temperatures in rivers and streams will affect aquatic health and reduce the capacity of streams to assimilate effluent wastewater treatment plants (NYSERDA 2011). Figure displays the project rainfall and frequency of extreme storms in New York State. The amount of rainfall in a 100-year event is projected to increase, while the number of years between such storms (return period) is projected to decrease. Rainstorms will become more severe and more frequent (NYSERDA 2011). Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

20 Figure Projected Rainfall and Frequency of Extreme Storms Source: NYSERDA Vulnerability Assessment Wind-related vulnerability data was generated using a HAZUS analysis for the severe storm hazard. A probabilistic assessment was conducted for the 100- and 500-year MRPs through a Level 2 analysis in HAZUS- MH to analyze the severe storm hazard and provide a range of loss estimates. The other severe storm hazards profiled above were assess qualitatively. Impact on Life, Health, and Safety The impact of a severe storms on life, health, and safety is dependent upon several factors including the severity of the event and whether adequate warning time was provided to residents. The entire County s population (population of 60,979 people, according to the U.S. Census 2016 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate) is assumed to be exposed to this hazard. Lightning can be responsible for deaths, injuries, and property damage. Lightning-based deaths and injuries typically involve heart damage, inflated lungs, or brain damage, as well as loss of consciousness, amnesia, paralysis, and burns, depending on the severity of the strike. Additionally, the majority of people struck by lightning survive, although they may have severe burns and internal damage. People located outdoors (i.e., recreational activities and farming) are considered most vulnerable to hailstorms, thunderstorms, and tornadoes because there is little to no warning and shelter may not be available. Moving to a lower risk location will decrease a person s vulnerability. As a result of severe storm events, residents may be displaced or require temporary to long-term sheltering. In addition, downed trees, damaged buildings and debris carried by high winds from hurricanes, tropical storms, or tornadoes can lead to injury or loss of life. Socially vulnerable populations are most susceptible, based on a number of factors, including their physical and financial ability to react or respond during a hazard and the location and construction quality of their housing. HAZUS-MH currently estimates that no residents will be displaced or require temporary shelter due to either a 100-year or a 500-year MRP event. Economically disadvantaged populations are more vulnerable because they may evaluate the need to evacuate and make decisions based on the major economic impact to their family. The population over the age of 65 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

21 (11,302 people, according to the U.S. Census 2016 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate) is also vulnerable and may physically have difficulty evacuating. The elderly population is considered vulnerable because they require extra time or outside assistance during evacuations and are more likely to seek or need medical attention, which may not be available due to isolation during a storm event. Section 4 provides for the statistics for these populations for Otsego County. Impact on General Building Stock Damage to buildings is dependent upon several factors, including wind speed, storm duration, path of the storm track or tornado, and distance from the tornado funnel. Depending on the size of the hail and severity of the storm, the County could see damage from hail impacting structures. Lightning can spark wildfires or building fires, especially if structures are not protected by surge protectors on critical electronic, lighting, or information technology systems. While damage to the building stock are possible as a result of lightning and hail, they are difficult to estimate and would not have as wide of an impact as a high wind or tornado event. Building construction plays a major role in the extent of damage resulting from a severe storm event. Due to differences in construction, residential structures are generally more susceptible to wind damage than commercial and industrial structures. Wood and masonry buildings, in general, regardless of their occupancy class, tend to experience more damage than concrete or steel buildings. High-rise buildings are also very vulnerable structures. Mobile homes are the most vulnerable to damage, even if tied down, and offer little protection to people inside. The U.S. Census Bureau defines manufactured homes as movable dwellings, 8 feet or wider and 40 feet or more long, designed to be towed on its own chassis, with transportation gear integral to the unit when it leaves the factory, and without need of a permanent foundation (U.S. Census, 2010). They can include multi-wides and expandable manufactured homes but exclude travel trailers, motor homes, and modular housing. Due to their light-weight and often unanchored design, manufactured housing is extremely vulnerable to high winds and will generally sustain the most damage. Table displays the number of manufactured housing units per municipality in Otsego County. Total counts were obtained from the HAZUS-MH v4.2 default general building stock. As noted below, Otego Town contains the greatest number of manufactured homes. Table Manufactured Housing Units per Municipality in Otsego County Number of Number of Municipality Manufactured Homes Municipality Manufactured Homes Burlington (T) 80 Morris (V) 48 Butternuts (T) 169 New Lisbon (T) 170 Cherry Valley (T) 45 Oneonta (C) 0 Cherry Valley (V) 32 Oneonta (T) 326 Cooperstown (V) 55 Otego (T) 484 Decatur (T) 45 Otego (V) 23 Edmeston (T) 123 Otsego (T) 108 Exeter (T) 140 Pittsfield (T) 206 Gilbertsville (V) 47 Plainfield (T) 65 Hartwick (T) 205 Richfield (T) 118 Laurens (T) 202 Richfield Springs (V) 61 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

22 Number of Number of Municipality Manufactured Homes Municipality Manufactured Homes Laurens (V) 23 Roseboom (T) 81 Maryland (T) 256 Springfield (T) 122 Middlefield (T) 89 Unadilla (T) 412 Milford (T) 276 Unadilla (V) 105 Milford (V) 56 Westford (T) 62 Morris (T) 106 Worcester (T) 187 Source: HAZUS-MH v4.2 (C) - City (T) Town (V) Village Otsego County: 4,527 The entire County s general building stock is assumed to be exposed to the severe storm wind hazard (greater than $6.8 billion in structure damage only). Expected estimated building damage was estimated by HAZUS- MH and includes buildings damaged at the following wind damage categories: no damage/very minor damage, minor damage, moderate damage, severe damage, and total destruction. Table summarizes the definition of the damage categories. Table Description of Damage Categories Qualitative Damage Description No Damage or Very Minor Damage Little or no visible damage from the outside. No broken windows or failed roof deck. Minimal loss of roof cover, with no or very limited water penetration. Minor Damage Maximum of one broken window, door or garage door. Moderate roof cover loss that can be covered to prevent additional water entering the building. Marks or dents on walls requiring painting or patching for repair. Moderate Damage Major roof cover damage, moderate window breakage. Minor roof sheathing failure. Some resulting damage to interior of building from water. Severe Damage Major window damage or roof sheathing loss. Major roof cover loss. Extensive damage to interior from water. Total Destruction Complete roof failure and/or failure of wall frame. Loss of more than 50% of roof sheathing. Source: HAZUS-MH Hurricane Technical Manual Roof Cover Failure Window Door Failures Roof Deck Missile Impacts on Walls Roof Structure Failure Wall Structure Failure 2% No No No No No > 2% and 15% > 15% and 50% > 50% Typically > 50% One window, door, or garage door failure > the larger of 20% & 3 and 50% > one and the larger of 20% & 3 No One (1) to Three (3) Panels > three (3) and 25% > 50% > 25% < Five Impacts Typically five to 10 Impacts Typically 10 to 20 Impacts Typically > 20 Impacts As noted earlier in the profile, HAZUS-MH v4.2 estimates the 100-year MRP peak gust wind speeds for Otsego County to be less than 39 mph and estimates $0 in structure damage; although the damage was not estimated in the model, damage could still occur at these wind speeds. No No No Yes No No No Yes Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

23 HAZUS-MH v4.2 estimates the 500-year MRP peak gust wind speeds for Otsego County range from 54 to 64 mph (tropical storm) and result in nearly $1.4 million damage to the general building stock (less than 1 percent of the County s total building inventory). Residential buildings account for nearly 98 percent of the total damage. Table summarizes the building damage (structure only) estimated for the 500-year MRP wind-only events by municipality. Total dollar damage reflects the overall impact to buildings at an aggregate level. Table Estimated Building Replacement Value (Structure Only) Damaged by the 500-Year Mean Return Period Hurricane-Related Winds for All Occupancy Classes Municipality Total Replacement Cost Value (Structure Only) Estimated Total Damage Percent of Total Building Replacement Cost Value Burlington (T) $109,432,000 $3,377 <1% Butternuts (T) $139,578,000 $8,752 <1% Cherry Valley (T) $102,461,000 $31,594 <1% Cherry Valley (V) $73,174,000 $32,010 <1% Cooperstown (V) $486,849,000 $68,733 <1% Decatur (T) $40,650,000 $26,053 <1% Edmeston (T) $189,676,000 $3,966 <1% Exeter (T) $82,264,000 $4,027 <1% Gilbertsville (V) $37,165,000 $872 <1% Hartwick (T) $183,032,000 $45,713 <1% Laurens (T) $192,321,000 $44,793 <1% Laurens (V) $54,412,000 $3,807 <1% Maryland (T) $182,523,000 $96,462 <1% Middlefield (T) $277,204,000 $131,099 <1% Milford (T) $273,617,000 $128,265 <1% Milford (V) $45,358,000 $18,678 <1% Morris (T) $108,546,000 $5,694 <1% Morris (V) $67,740,000 $953 <1% New Lisbon (T) $96,126,000 $4,420 <1% Oneonta (C) $1,405,109,000 $171,187 <1% Oneonta (T) $766,220,000 $104,509 <1% Otego (T) $139,270,000 $24,304 <1% Otego (V) $111,446,000 $24,538 <1% Otsego (T) $332,628,000 $105,200 <1% Pittsfield (T) $94,458,000 $5,340 <1% Plainfield (T) $65,241,000 $2,859 <1% Richfield (T) $108,643,000 $5,406 <1% Richfield Springs (V) $123,746,000 $676 <1% Roseboom (T) $68,056,000 $42,938 <1% Springfield (T) $176,899,000 $98,163 <1% Unadilla (T) $251,889,000 $9,683 <1% Unadilla (V) $108,539,000 $437 <1% Westford (T) $74,169,000 $47,564 <1% Worcester (T) $229,322,000 $102,554 <1% Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York