DISCUSSION --1/ 4 /19

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Marvin Long
5 years ago
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1 ISSUED: 4 JNURY 1715 EST WXRISK VIDEO WINTER FORECST short version WXRISK VIDEO WINTER FORECST Long version DISCUSSION --1/ 4 /19 *** STRONG SIGNS OF RETURN TYPICL JNURY TEMPS... DEVELOPING FTER JN 9 *** For the ski resorts in WV V MD V the last 3 weeks have not been good at all. There have only been a few brief days with temps even near Normal. There is more rain and mild temperatures in the forecast for this weekend and into much next week UT here is some really GOOD news --. WINTER IS MKING COMECK IN IG WY and it starts JN Moreover this seasonally cold pattern will last for a while--.at least 7 days and maybe 14+. The Friday Midday weather map shows LOW pressure developing over the southeastern states and rain moving into the Carolinas and Virginia. The LOW which is currently centered over central Tennessee has its cold front extending into the Florida panhandle as well as Eastern Georgia and South Carolina. There are some moderately strong wintertime thunderstorms. This is another one these fairly strong, well organized southern jet streams systems that if we had enough cold air, would probably be a substantial snowstorm in the Middle tlantic region.

2 The rain will advance north at a fairly steady clip reaching into northern Virginia, D.C. altimore, and central Maryland by Friday evening. y Saturday morning the LOW-pressure area will be located over the Delmarva peninsula and this means that most of North Carolina and central and Southern Virginia will probably " dry slot" on Saturday morning and midday. ut the Upper level energy over West Virginia and far southwest Virginia, will continue to bring rain showers off and on throughout the day. In the highest elevation in southern portions of West Virginia the rain may mix with or change over to wet snow -- but NO there will be accumulations.. night. Once the Low-pressure area leaves the East Coast, winds will become northwesterly and temperatures will turn somewhat cooler on Saturday UT overnight temperatures WILL STILL STY OVE 32 DEGREES Saturday night into Sunday.. Sunday night into Monday... Monday night into Tuesday WINTER S RETURN EGINS Strong LOW pressure passing to the north on Monday- over the Great Lakes into New York State - will drag a weak cold front across the Middle tlantic region on Monday night into Tuesday morning. This front may bring a few passing showers with it but that is about all. This Upper level trough supporting this LOW will deepen rapidly as the LOW moves off the New England Coast. This deep trough will be the first deep trough over the East coast since DEC15.. Cold Canadian HIGH pressure will drop out of Canada into thje Midwest and the interaction of this HIGH and the LOW of the New England coast will produce gusty North winds and pull in seasonally cold air for Mid January

THE PERIOD FROM JN 12-19 WILL E THE EST SNOW MKING CONDITIONS SINCE ERLY DEC 2018.

.. WV The various weather models develop a reinforcing trough in the Jet stream next weekend JN 12-14. t the surface this will be a cold front.

3 THE PERIOD FROM JN WILL E THE EST SNOW MKING CONDITIONS SINCE ERLY DEC some areas will see morning min temps in the degree range POSSILE COSTL STORM JN THT COULD RING SNOW TO THE SKI RESORTS OF WESTERN NC... WESTERN V... WESTERN MD... WV The various weather models develop a reinforcing trough in the Jet stream next weekend JN t the surface this will be a cold front. Some sort of low may form on the front over the Deep South JN The operational GFS model doesn t " see" the energy in the southern jet stream very well but the European model does. The Euro develops a LOW-pressure area over the Louisiana on Saturday, January 12. The LOWpressure area develops rapidly and moves up through Georgia, the Carolinas into Virginia on Sunday afternoon January 13. From there the LOW-pressure area tracks along New Jersey and eastern portions of New England.

4 Right now this looks to be a rain to snow event for the ski resorts in western NC western V western MD and eastern WV. It is possible that this could end up as significant ppalachian mountain snowstorm as well. ehind this system there is more cold air coming.

5 THE FORECST --1/4/19

6 DTE DY 6 1/ 10 DY 7 1/ 11 DY 8 1/ 12 DY 9 1/ 13 DY 10 1/ 14 SNOW TEMPS CONDITION 7-3P-10P-4M DY DY 11 1 /15 DY 12 1 /16 DY 13 1 /17 DY 14 1 /18 DY 15 1 / IDEL GOOD C DECENT D MRGINL E POOR F NOT HPPENING TEMPERTURES CODES NIGHTTIME Temps at or elow 25 degrees F & Wet ulb Temps (Tw) in the Teens or Lower DYTIME: Temps at or elow mainly in the 20s & Wet ulb Temps (Tw) mainly in the teens NIGHTTIME: Temps well below 27 degrees & Wet ulb Temps (Tw) in the Teens or Lower DYTIME: Temps do NOT go above MID 30S & Wet ulb temps (Tw) in the L 20s NIGHTTIME: Temps in the M or U 20s & Wet ulb Temps (Tw) in the L to M 20s or Lower. DYTIME: Temps above for at least a few hours & Wet ulb (Tw) in the around 30 NIGHTTIME: Temps Only drop elow 30 for part of the night...perhaps ONLY a few hours & Wet ulb Temps (Tw) M- U 20s. DYTIME: Temps above 40 for much of the day & Wet ulb (Tw) in the L to M 30s NIGHTTIME: Temps Hold in L 30s and Wet ulb Temps (Tw) in the U 20s to L 30s. DYTIME: Temps L-M 40s for at least a few hours & Wet ulb (Tw) in the L 30s NIGHTTIME: Temps stay L to M 30s & Wet ulb Temps (Tw) L 30s+ DYTIME: Temps above L 40s+ and Tw above 32

WEEK 3 / 16-21 DY or JN 20-25 elow Normal temps are likely DT

7 WEEK 3 / DY or JN elow Normal temps are likely DT wxrisk.com OFFICE CELL wxrisk@verizon.net

WEATHER NOTIFICATION STATEMENT

WEATHER NOTIFICATION STATEMENT NEW DATA SHOWS SNOWSTORM THREAT FOR JAN 13-14 LOOKS MUCH HEAVIER BIGGER COVERAGE northwest NC (ice) ALL OF VA (Except Hampton Roads) all of MD/ DEL eastern southern PA southern