RA V/TCC-17/Doc. 2 Submitted by: WMO Secretariat DRAFT OBS PROGRESS REPORT ON ACTIONS FROM RAV TCC-16. Para. TCC- 16 Report.

Transcription

1 World Meteorological Organization RA V TROPICAL CYCLONE MITTEE FOR THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN Seventeenth Session Nouméa, New Caledonia, France, 23 to 26 July 2018 RA V/17/Doc. 2 Submitted by: WMO Secretariat DRAFT PROGRESS REPORT ON ACTIONS FROM RAV Para. OBS RBSN Figures from the Annual Global Monitoring (AGM) REC 1 REC Recommendation for more information to be provided on the collection method and criteria for report success to assist members investigate slippage or low figures. Recommendation to WMO to consider more frequent reporting to members (beyond annual figures or bi-annual reports), and whether it is appropriate to report data this way given valid operational requirements for data collection and dissemination that may not fit the AGM criteria for success. WMO OBS RAV WG/INFR. PMC s PICI Panel. WMO OBS RAV WG/INFR PMC s PICI Panel. Answer provided by WMO/OBS in doc 6.1 of the RAV 17 session PMC established PICI Panel. -Answer provided by WMO/OBS in doc 6.1 of the RAV 17 session -Demonstration on using OSCAR platform to participants for Joint GCOS/WIGOS Workshop for Pacific SIDS (Nadi, Fiji, 7-9 Nov 2018). -PMC established PICI Panel. to report on this to RAV WG/INFR and PMC s PICI Panel. to report on this to RAV WG/INFR and PMC s PICI Panel. 1 REC : Recommendation from final report 1

2 RBSN Members to check station lists Surface observations 2 3 TCC members requested to check their station lists and reporting intervals lodged with WMO and to supply updates and/or comments to WMO as necessary. The Committee commented on the necessity to provide surface observations to augment satellite data for NWP purposes and to provide ground truthing as a basis for verification. Members members WMO OBS 4 WIGOS 5 & GCOS 6. RAV WG/INFR 7. PMC s PICI 8 Panel. Demonstration on using OSCAR platform to participants for Joint GCOS/WIGOS Workshop for Pacific SIDS (Nadi, Fiji, 7 to 9 November 2018). PMC established PICI Panel. Joint GCOS/WIGOS Workshop for Pacific SIDS (Nadi, Fiji, October 2017). GCOS Secretariat coordinating drafting of Pacific Regional GCOS Implementation Plan. This aim is to have the Plan presented at RAV-17 9 (Nuku alofa, Tonga, 9 to 12 October 2018). PMC established PICI Panel. to report on this to RAV WG/INFR and PMC s PICI Panel. to report on this to RAV WG/INFR and PMC s PICI Panel. 2 : Request from final report 3 : Comment from final report 4 WMO OBS: WMO Observation Department 5 WIGOS: WMO Integrating Observing System 6 GCOS: Global Climate Observing System 7 RAV WG/INFR: WMO RAV Working Group on Infrastructure 8 PICI: PMC Pacific Island Communication and Infrastructure Panel 9 RAV-17: 17 th session of RAV 2

3 JICA funded regional group BIP-MT 10 training program for Pacific SIDS/LDCs (Nadi, Fiji, 24 April to 29 June 2017) Synoptic observations network RA V TCC members to upgrade synoptic observations network to required standards. WMO OBS WIGOS & GCOS. RAV WG/INFR. PMC s PICI Panel. JICA funded regional group training in meteorological equipment maintenance and calibration (Nadi, Fiji, 2-13 Nov 2015 and 21 Nov- 2 Dec 20). Face-to-face session of RAV WG/INFR (Singapore, 7 to 9 November 2017). PMC established PICI Panel. to report on this to RAV WG/INFR and PMC s PICI Panel. Fiji, Niue, Vanuatu installed instruments Marine and ocean meteorological observations. To consider sustained and enhanced contributions of WMO Members in the region in support of the implementation of the ocean observing systems, including buoy, Argo, and ship-based networks in the tropical oceans and the provision of ship time to assist in the deployment and servicing of tropical moored buoys, and for the deployment of drifters and XBTs. WMO/ OSD (Marine and Ocean Meteorological Observations and Data Management Unit) FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONES 10 BIP-MT: Basic Instruction Package for Meteorological Technicians 11 Fiji: 2015: 1 automatic weather station (AWS), 1 tide gauge,1 wind profiler, 4 lightning detectors, 6 AWSs - Wainikoro, Seaqaqa, Saqani, Kabulau and Vaturekuka, in Vanua Lava, Upgrade of Ono-I-Lau station; : Upgrade of Nadi weather radar antenna, 1 AWS at Nadi airport, Rehabilitation of Vanuabalavu station; : 1 AWS at Nausori airport; : Install water level and rainfall equipment in following rivers Ba, Rewa, Qawa, Nasekwawa, Wainibuke, Korovou, Vitogo, Wailotua and Toge station. Niue: 2015, 20: 1 tide gauge, 1 AWS, 1 lightning sensor Vanuatu: 11 AWSs and 5 tide gauges 3

4 Forecasting cyclones intensity IWSATC REC REC Challenges associated with forecasting cyclone intensity and the need to be informed on developments related to cyclones intensity forecasting Outcomes to be circulated RA V members with TCWC responsibilities should be invited to future IWSATCs. WWRP & GDPFS. Global and regional centers. RSMC Nadi. WMO/TCP /reports.html OK Impact Based Forecast (IBF) Considering the importance of impact forecasting and interests from the user community requested that such criteria and guidance of impact based forecast be considered and developed by WMO TCP and DRR 12 to guide NMSs/NTCWC 13 and NDMOs 14. COASTAL IMPACT CAUSED BY WAVES AND STORM SURGE WMO TCP, GDPFS & MMO. World Bank funded PREP (Samoa and Tonga). RAV 17 (Noumea, New Caledonia, 23 to 26 July 2018) will include IBF in its agenda. 12 DRR: Disaster Risk Reduction 13 NTCWC: National Tropical Cyclone Warning Center 14 NDMOs: National Disaster Management Offices 4

5 2.1.6/ Storm surge warning and information services in Region V Lack of and / or need for better comprehensive storm surge warning service and associated risks for many countries in Region V. Need for storm surge to be considered with tropical cyclone warnings. WMO TCP 15, MMO & GDPFS 17. RA V TCC 18, TT/CISS 19, TT/SWFD 20 & RSMC Nadi 21. WMO TCP, GDPFS & MMO. RA V TCC, TT/CISS, TT/SWFD & RSMC Nadi. PMC 22 established PIMOS 23 Panel. Currently, FMS 25 /RSMC Nadi trialing JMA s 26 regional storm surge model with the aim to include storm surge information and forecast in future cyclone advisories and warnings. PMC established PIMOS Panel. RAV may further discuss 15 WMO TCP: WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme WMO MMO: WMO Marine Meteorology and Ocean 17 WMO GDPFS: WMO Global Data Processing and Forecasting System 18 : : Regional Association V Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean 19 TT/CISS: RA V TCC Task Team on Coastal Inundation including Storm Surge 20 TT/SWFD/DPFS: Task Team on Severe Weather Forecast and Disaster Risk Reduction including Data processing and Forecasting System 21 RSMC Nadi: Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Nadi, Fiji, specializing in tropical cyclones 22 PMC: Pacific Meteorological Council 23 PIMOS: Pacific Island Marine and Ocean Services 24 RAV 17: 17 th session of. To be held in Noumea, New Caledonia, 23 to 26 July FMS: Fiji Meteorological Service 26 JMA: Japan Meteorology Agency 5

6 2.1.20/ 6.2.9/ / 6.2.9/ Storm Surge - Options to be explored Storm Surge Bathymetric data REC Need for regionally based storm surge forecasting solution. The committee noted the different approaches to regional storm surge warnings in RA I by RSMC La Reunion and RA II and called on WMO to explore implementation of either one of these approaches. The committee urged WMO and partner agencies on behalf of the countries to pursue opportunities to obtain higher resolution bathymetric data as a basis for delivery of storm surge waning services. Opportunities could include developing algorithms for extracting bathymetry from satellite imagery as well as using technologies such as UAV borne LiDAR to collect bathymetry for target areas in the Pacific to improve storm surge warnings. WMO TCP, MMO & GDPFS. RA V TCC, TT/CISS TT/SWFD & WMO/TCP PArtners Currently, FMS/RSMC Nadi trialing JMA s regional storm surge model with the aim to include storm surge information and forecast in future cyclone advisories and warnings. PMC established PIMOS Panel. RSMC La Réunion developed a storm surge product for RAI and offered the optimized methodology, theorical model and the webservice standalone software of this product to any RAV Members interested. RSMC La Réunion developed a storm surge product for RAI and offered the optimized methodology, theorical model and the webservice standalone software of this product to any RAV Members interested. 6

7 Warning of waves generated by distance cyclones. Difficulty in providing adequate early warnings to communities to be impacted by waves generated distance cyclones or depressions or other weather systems which are very far distance from the areas. FLOODS WMO TCP, GDPFS & MMO. CIFDP-Fiji 27 include forecasting of long distance waves generated by weather system. Pacific SIDS 28 Project of the CREWS 29 Initiative including support from Canada will provide support for early warning and forecasting system for waves and coastal inundation for Tuvalu and South Tarawa in Kiribati. Meeting on CIFDP-Fiji (Nadi, Fiji, December 2018). LoA 30 between WMO and SPC 31 for implementation of activities at final stage of review by WMO Institutional arrangements for hydrology / flood forecasting units. Hydrology / flood forecasting units move to NMSs. WMO CLW 32 /Hydrolog y & DRA 33. Fiji s draft Meteorology and Hydrology Bill currently under review by Parliament Standing Committee for Natural Resources. SWFDDP 27 CIFDP-Fiji: Coastal Inundation Demonstration Project for Fiji 28 SIDS: Small Island Developing States 29 CREWS: Climate Risk Early Warning System 30 LoA Letter of Agreement 31 SPC: Secretariat of the Pacific Community 32 CLW: WMO Climate and Hydrology Department 33 DRA: WMO Development and Regional Activities Department 7

8 1. undertaking review of project to inform transition to Phase 4. WMO GDPFS. RSMT/SWFDDP 35 and participating countries and centers. SPREP & US NOAA NWS 36. discussion on during the meeting of RSMT/SWFDDP, on 27 & 28 July 2018, in Noumea, New Caledonia considered RSMT/SWFDDP recommendatio n to: 2. to develop business case for establishing a coordinating post, most likely at SPREP. WMO GDPFS. RSMT/SWFDDP and participating countries and centers. SPREP & US NOAA NWS. Initiated discussion with US NOAA NWS on coordinating post, possibly at SPREP 37. discussion on during the meeting of RSMT/SWFDDP, on 27 & 28 July 2018, in Noumea, New Caledonia. 3.to transform existing reporting arrangements through simpler templates and video conference arrangements on a monthly basis. MUNICATION AND MESSAGING WMO GDPFS. Chair of RSMT/SWFDDP, participating countries and centers. Chair of RSMT/SWFDDP communicating with participating countries to provide reports. discussion on during the meeting of RSMT/SWFDDP (Noumea, New Caledonia, 27 & 28 July 2018). 34 : th session of RA V TCC 35 RSMT/SWFDDP: Regional Steering Sub-project and Management Team for Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster Risk Reduction Demonstration Project. Meeting on 27 & 28 July 2018, Noumea, New Caledonia. 36 US NOAA NWS: United States National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration National Weather Service 37 SPREP: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme 8

9 Communicating cyclone forecast uncertainties for communities Problem of communicating forecast uncertainties for communities. Disaster managers to understand the range of possibilities, especially when intensity changes occur close to the islands. GDPFS. Global and regional centers. Members Communicating storm surge s risk to communities. Issuing cyclone advisories and warning prior to cyclone being named. Need to explain storm surge s risks in appropriate language. Challenge of issuing cyclone advisories prior to system being named as people do not usually react to warnings. WMO TCP, MMO & SDD. RA V TCC, TT/CISS, TT/SWFD & RSMC Nadi Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) Members are encouraged to adopt CAP for dissemination of their severe weather warnings Members Register of WMO Members Alerting Authorities Towards achieving a single official voice for dissemination of weather warnings Members TRAINING-CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT 9

10 Cyclone forecasters competency and working group. Consider creating working group to consider the potential for the proposed cyclone forecaster competency framework. WMO to develop competency standards for cyclone forecaster. WMO Guide to Competency has been published p?explnum_id= Prepare a draft training plan for the next Committee s session. AGREE Working group membership comprising of Mr Joe Courtney (BoM 38 ) and representatives from Tonga, Fiji and USA. WMO & Coordination and linkages with PMC s PIETR Panel. It will be great to have some linkages between the working group cyclone competency and PMC s PIETR Panel. SPREP TC Competency AGREE RA V management Group to upgrade the TCC WG on cyclone competencies (established at the, see para of the final report) to TT status to provide added profile and focus on achieving progress towards adoption RAV MAN Group WMO Guide to Competency has been published p?explnum_id= BoM: Australian Bureau of Meteorology 10

11 Media training. Organize media training for forecasters. WMO ETR 39 & CPA 40. PMC s PIETR 41 Panel. FMS has established media center ( ) Capacity development Short term attachments or exchange of personnel between Pacific SIDS NMSs 42 and developed NMSs. Exchange of skills / tools between Pacific SIDS NMSs and developed NMSs. RSMC Nadi and other regional centers.\global centers. RSMC Nadi and other regional centers. Global centers. Pacific International Desk Training Program ( ). TC module. DRR Sendai framework. Involvement and linkages of RA V TCC mainly through NMSs to Sendai frameworks. DRR. SRDP Strategy for Disaster and Climate Resilience Little contribution of NMSs in the preparation of the current regional strategy SRDP ETR: WMO Education and Training 40 CPA: WMO Communication and Public Affairs 41 PIETR: Pacific Island Education, Training and Research Panel 42 NMSs: National Meteorological Services 43 SRDP: Strategic Resilient Development for the Pacific 11

12 OPERATIONAL PLAN 2.1. Revise category system for cyclone Questions asked on whether necessary to revise category system to include category 6 for cyclone intensity numbering Issuing of warning when cyclone crosses AORs boundaries. Continuity issuance of warnings, in case weakening of cyclone and / or when cyclone moves from an AOR 44 to another. WMO TCP, Contingency plan between Fiji and New Zealand REMENDATION Backup test to be performed by TCWC 45 Wellington for the purpose of confirming product delivery to other member countries. TCWC Wellington and RSMC Nadi to conduct backup test annually. RSMC Nadi. TCWC Wellington. RSMC Nadi. TCWC Wellington RSMC Nadi to issue more frequently cyclone location satellite fixes. Tonga requested RSMC Nadi to issue more frequently cyclone location satellite fixes.. RSMC Nadi 44 AOR: Area of Responsibility for cyclone warnings 45 TCWC: Tropical Cyclone Warning Center 12

13 Operational Plan Pitcairn Islands Operational Plan Comprehensive review REC As the Pitcairn Islands are a British Overseas Territory, the meeting recommends the UK PR to WMO is advised of this update to the Operational Plan to reflect the current level of service. consultation is required to establish what products (if any) Pitcairn is already receiving from Fiji and/or New Zealand and whether there should be any change to the current service. The Committee called on WMO to arrange for that to occur as a matter of urgency. RESEARCH WMO/TCP TCP advised UK PR NO OK Pacific SIDS Project of the CREWS Initiative including support from Canada will provide support for this activity. Draft TOR, circulate it RAV TCC members and seeking their inputs and comments, and have it approved by Chair of RAV TCC Researchers and operational centers working together IWTC-8 s request for researchers to increase engagement with operational centres on major and/or difficult issues related to predicting cyclones. WMO TCP, WWRP WWRP TCoriented projects Projects to be instrumental in transferring the recent research advances to operational forecast centers in NMHSs, especially those which have been affected by the recent increase in the severity of tropical cyclone events in highly populated coastal areas. Projects to be instrumental in transferring the recent research advances to operational forecast centers in NMHSs, especially those which have been affected by the recent increase in the severity of tropical cyclone events in highly populated coastal areas. WWRP. WMO/WWRP un der Research COUNTRIES UESTS 13

14 3.1.6 RSMC Nadi workload. RA V TCC members could assist RSMC Nadi for the workload. RSMC Nadi., Discussions between RSMC Nadi and NMSs during cyclone events. NMSs and RSMC Nadi to have discussions during cyclone events. RSMC Nadi. members (Samoa and Tonga) had discussions with RSMC Nadi prior and during cyclone Gita impacting the countries Kiribati s requests To improve wave height, storm surges and inundation forecasting at a national level. To establish reliable communication system to link and RSMC Nadi or Honolulu in providing head up information on the possible impacts WMO TCP, GDPFS & MMO. RA V TCC & RSMT/SWFDDP. Kiribati. OBS/WIS 46. Kiribati. RSMC Nadi. US NOAA NWS. Pacific SIDS Project of the CREWS Initiative including support from Canada will provide support for early warning and forecasting system for waves and coastal inundation for South Tarawa in Kiribati. LoA between WMO and SPC for implementation of activity at final stage of review by WMO Indonesia s request Needs WMO support to enable BMKG 47 send its cyclone forecasters to attend related conferences, workshop and international training events. ETR. Indonesia. Needs WMO support to invite TC experts from overseas to coach annual local training in Indonesia. ETR. Indonesia. 46 WIS: WMO Information System 47 BMKG: Indonesia Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics 14

15 Niue s request & Samoa s request. Tonga s request Need 2 PCs 48 and monitors to use for cyclone forecasting and warning dissemination. Continue to pursue other avenues such as JMA, BKMG and others for assistance in storm surges forecasting and warning services. Some of the communication challenges still faced during cyclone events still relates to internet connectivity. Niue. WMO TCP, GDPFS & MMO. JMA & BMKG OBS/WIS. Tonga. Upgrade of PCs (COSPPac 49 ) Need for NMSs to advise their Governments to issue state of emergency before impact to mobilize resources for early response. RV TCC & Tonga Tonga declared state of emergency before cyclone Gita impacted Tongatapu Tuvalu s request Improvement in communication for effective delivery of forecast and warnings. OBS/WIS. More work needed to explore and understand storm surges and impacts. Coastal inundation modeling and forecasting may significantly guide in providing good decision making, early response and in saving lives and properties. PARTNERSHIP MMO. TT/CISS. MMO. TT/CISS. Pacific SIDS Project of the CREWS Initiative including support from Canada will provide support for early warning and forecasting system for waves and coastal inundation for Tuvalu. LoA between WMO and SPC for implementation of activity at final stage of review by WMO. 48 PCs: Personnel computers 49 COSPPac: Australian government funded Climate and Ocean Service Program in the Pacific 15

16 UNESCAP Partner with RA V TCC. World Bank to support observation infrastructure and platforms On the recommendation to partner or engage with ESCAP in the operation of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee, the committee would require significantly more information about the financial, governance and overall consequences of such a significant change to the structure of the committee. [ ] The committee would however be prepared to consider a detailed proposal from ESCAP secretariat regarding an alternative structure at its next meeting in SPC to raise with World Bank the concerns on lack of observation data from the region used in the calculation of event losses as part of the Pacific catastrophe risk insurance and facilitate a discourse between NMHSs 50 to making observation data available to World Bank reporting agent. UNESCAP. World Bank. SPC. OTHERS Frequency of RA V TCC meetings There would be considerable advantages in meeting annually as is the case with equivalent meetings in Northern Hemisphere cyclone basins. RAV MG 51 and session. Include in RAV TCC report to RAV MG meeting (Geneva, 25 June 2018). Propose to RAV- 17 (Nuku alofa, Tonga, October 2018) to include in revised TOR. 50 NMHSs: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services 51 RA V MG: RAV Management Group