Weather Briefing for Pennsylvania Feb Outlook Prepared 02/11/14 2 pm EST

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1 Weather Briefing for Pennsylvania Feb Outlook Prepared 02/11/14 2 pm EST Prepared by: National Weather Service State College, PA (Peter.Jung@noaa.gov)

2 Pennsylvania Weather Overview A significant winter storm will affect portions of Pennsylvania Wednesday Night into Thursday This storm will be a coastal storm, moving up the east coast. The exact track and intensity will ultimately determine the path of the heaviest snow. There is a potential for significant, heavy snowfall, especially over southeastern Pennsylvania Some ice is also possible, again mainly in the far southeast Strong winds will be a player in this event The storm will be relative quick hitting, with the bulk of the snow falling from around midnight Wednesday through early afternoon Thursday With forecast snow amounts, snowfall rates will be heavy, with the potential of a period of 1 to 2 inch per hour rates.

3 Current Watches / Warnings / Advisories

4 Use this graphic as guidance to where the heavy snow is expected and most likely based on the current forecasts. Snowfall Forecasts

5 Storm Uncertainties There are still a variety of possible storm tracks and forecast solutions for this event. How close to the coast will the ultimate storm track? A heavy band of snow will likely develop over the region, but the exact placement of the heaviest snow is still in question The final track of the low will also determine how much warm air mixes into the system This will determine where any freezing rain and sleet develop. In general terms: The farther east the storm tracks, the farther east the swath of significant snow, and the reduced chance of ice The farther west the storm tracks, the farther west the swath of significant snow, and an increased chance of ice, and maybe some plain rain in the far southeast.

6 Winds: Other Storm Parameters Winds will increase Wednesday night into Thursday. Starting from an easterly direction Wednesday Night, shifting to Northeast then North on Thursday Winds of 10 to 20 mph common, with some gusts of mph especially in the east. Temperatures: Wednesday...Highs in the lower to mid 20s Wednesday Night...Lows ranging from the single digits in the northwest to the mid 20s in the southeast (wind chills in the single numbers to lower teens) Thursday...Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thursday Night...lows ranging from the upper teens in the northwest to the mid 20s in the southeast Friday...Highs 30 to 40.

7 Ice: Other Storm Parameters While a bulk of the system will be a snow event, there is a concern for some ice Timing: Most likely area will be in the southeast...mainly along and south of a Chester to Bucks County Line This area could shift based on storm track east or west Light snow moves into the southern tier of Pennsylvania Wednesday evening, mainly between 4 and 7 pm Snow quickly spreads north and east, with significant, heavy snow falling between midnight and mid day Thursday (12 hour window) Snow moves out later Thursday. Depending on the speed of the storm, snow could linger in the east into the evening.

8 Other Storm Parameters Reach / Western Extent of Snow: Current projections would indicate little accumulation north and west of a Williamsport to State College to Altoona line Remember though, this could quickly change with a farther west storm track

9 Impacts Snowfall will be heavy, and come down at a fast rate overnight Wednesday and the first half of Thursday Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible, causing near whiteout conditions Snow will rapidly accumulate on roads, trees, etc. There is a potential for icing, especially over the southeast This may cause additional strains on power lines and trees.

10 Summary A significant storm system will affect the Mid-Atlantic Region Wednesday Night and Thursday There is still uncertainty in the exact track of the storm, and therefore uncertainty in the resultant weather for Pennsylvania There is a potential for heavy (6-10+ inches) snow for portions of the Commonwealth...especially in the southeast As newer forecasts become available, reliability will increase. Monitor later forecasts closely as the exact evolution of the storm becomes more certain.

11 Links to local NWS offices that cover Pennsylvania (Get the latest forecasts and updates!) NWS Cleveland weather.gov/cleveland NWS Pittsburgh weather.gov/pittsburgh NWS State College weather.gov/statecollege NWS Binghamton weather.gov/binghamton NWS Mount Holly weather.gov/philadelphia

12 Those Counties served by NWS State College DETAILED FORECAST FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES

13 Latest Snowfall Forecast

14 Latest Ice Forecast

15 Web Links Emergency Managers Briefing Page: PA Snow Accumulation Reports Display stormtotal_12&element=snow&centeron=ctp AHPS Page: Need to zoom in on your specific area PEMA River Monitor page

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