Using the Arctic Oscillation to Improve Agricultural Decisions
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1 Using the Arctic Oscillation to Improve Agricultural Decisions Guillermo A. Baigorria School of Natural Resources and Department of Agronomy & Horticulture International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
2 Many people think that: Because there is climate change there is no longer climate variability or climate variability is no longer important > Temperature time >
3 Many people think that: Because there is climate change there is no longer climate variability or climate variability is no longer important
4 Because climate is non stationary, global and regional climate driver trends are no longer important Source: The University of Alabama in Huntsville
5 Categorical Seasonal Climate monitoring & forecasts (teleconnection indices) Categorical Discrete (e.g. El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) Seasonal Climate 1to 6 months in advance
6 Teleconnection indices El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño La Niña
7 Teleconnection indices El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño Neutral La Niña
8 Worldwide effects of ENSO El Niño La Niña
9 Worldwide effects of ENSO El Niño
10 Teleconnections Map Source:
11 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Represents the state of atmospheric circulation over the Arctic Positive phase: a belt of strong winds circulating around the North Pole acts to confine colder air across the Polar Region Negative phase: The belt of winds becomes weaker and more distorted allowing an easier southward penetration of colder, arctic air masses and increased storminess into the mid latitudes Source: warming/arctic oscillation ao
12
13 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Rainfall March Negative Nebraska
14 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Number of rainy days March Negative Nebraska
15 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Maximum Temperature March Negative Nebraska
16 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Minimum Temperature March Negative Nebraska
17 Yield timeseries International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
18 Technology de trended yield timeseries International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
19 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Corn Grain Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
20 Climate based decision cycle for corn Source: Takle et al., Climate Forecasts for Corn Producer Decision Making. Earth Interactions. doi: /2013EI
21 0 month Lag The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Corn Positive
22 0 month Lag The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Corn Positive 1 month Lag
23 0 month Lag The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Corn Positive 1 month Lag 2 month Lag
24 0 month Lag The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Corn Positive 1 month Lag 2 month Lag 3 month Lag
25 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Corn Positive 0 month Lag 1 month Lag 2 month Lag Signal persistence 3 month Lag 4 month Lag 5 month Lag
26 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Corn Silage Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
27 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Soybean Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
28 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Winter Wheat Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
29 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Spring Wheat Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
30 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Peanut Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
31 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Barley Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
32 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Sorghum Grain Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
33 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Oats Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
34 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Hay and Alfalfa Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
35 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Hay (alfalfa excluded) Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
36 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) Positive Rainfed Corn Grain Negative Neutral Yield anomaly << < = > >> n/d
37 So we know the effects, now What can we do?
38 Modeling adaptation strategies using CropClimate platform Yields under Negative AO on different planting dates
39 Using the Arctic Oscillation to Improve Agricultural Decisions Guillermo A. Baigorria School of Natural Resources and Department of Agronomy & Horticulture International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
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