Yucca Mountain climate: Past, present, and future

Transcription

1 Publications (YM) Yucca Mountain 2007 Yucca Mountain climate: Past, present, and future Saxon E. Sharpe Desert Research Institute, Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Climate Commons, and the Meteorology Commons Repository Citation Sharpe, S. E. (2007). Yucca Mountain climate: Past, present, and future. Available at: This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the Yucca Mountain at Digital It has been accepted for inclusion in Publications (YM) by an authorized administrator of Digital For more information, please contact

2 Yucca Mountain Climate: Past, Present, and Future Saxon E. Sharpe Desert Research Institute

3 Why Evaluation of modern climate is necessary to relate climatic events to near-surface processes such as infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration. Modern climate information also aids in environmental analyses of repository design facilities and atmospheric dispersion models. Evaluation of past climate regimes, particularly temperature and precipitation, is needed to assess the relation of past climate to past hydrologic conditions. Estimates of potential future climate and hydrology are needed to evaluate repository performance.

4

5

6 Sharpe, S.E., 2007 Using modern through mid- Pleistocene climate proxy data to bound future variations in infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada in Levich, R.A., and Stuckless, J.S., eds., The Geology and Climatology of Yucca Mountain and Vicinity, Southern Nevada and California: Geological Society of America Memoir 199, p. XXX XXX

7 #1 Climate is sequential; the past is the key to the future. Interglacial (Modern) Intermediate Intermediate/ Monsoon Glacial

8 Devils Hole, Nevada

9 Death Valley, California

10 Owens Lake, California

11 Local Records Springs and wetlands Packrat Middens

12 #1 Climate is sequential, the past is the key to the future. Interglacial (Modern) Intermediate Intermediate/ Monsoon Glacial a) Landwehr et al b) Smith et al c) Jannik et al d) Lowenstein et al e) Ku et al f) Prokopenko et al g) Petit et al. 1999

13 Long-Term Climate: The Last 500,000 Years Encompassed higher, sometimes much higher, effective moisture relative to today. Greater effective moisture can mean increased precipitation or decreased temperature or both. During past glacial periods, mean annual temperature may have been as much as 10 to 15 C cooler than present temperatures, with mean annual precipitation as much as times present precipitation. Precipitation was often higher and/or temperature lower in the past because tropical moisture-laden air was coupled with colder air masses over the YM area. Infiltration was commonly higher relative to today because water is stored more readily during periods of greater effective moisture.

14 Eccentricity: changes the annual total radiation received at the top of the earth s atmosphere. ~100,000 yr cycle Obliquity: changes the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation at the top of the earth s atmosphere. ~40,000 yr cycle Precession: change the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation at the top of the earth s atmosphere, but not the total insolation. ~ 22,000 yr cycle

15 Precession and Eccentricity for the last 500,000 Years

16 #2 Relation exists between the timing of long-term climate change and orbital parameters. Chronology: Devils Hole and Orbital Parameters

17 # 3 Characteristics of late Quaternary glacial and interglacial climates differ from each other in a systematic way.

18 Future Climate and Orbital Parameters

19 Modern Meteorological Station Temperature and Precipitation Washington Owens Lake California Spokane Rosalia St. John Beowawe Elko Nevada Chewelah Utah Delta Browning Simpson Montana Lake Yellowstone Wyoming Paleoenvironmental data from Owens Lake, packrat middens, Death Valley, and Las Vegas Valley marsh deposits are used to calibrate magnitude EXPLANATION Meteorological Stations Yucca Mountain Yucca Mountain Regional Meteorological Stations Arizona Nogales New Mexico Hobbs

20 Approach Used Close match between Devils Hole and calculated orbital parameters provides the rationale for past climate being the key to future climate The nature of future climate is based both on the nature of past climate and the assumption of cyclicity The nature of future climate is based on the sequencing and characteristics of past climate Past and future climate may be represented using 4 major climates states

21 DRI s Western Regional Climate Center Yucca Team Met Kelly Redmond, Greg McCurdy, Heather Angeloff, Michelle Breckner

22 Yucca Mountain Stations

23 DTN Source for Station Data

24 Back to: NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada NOTE: To print data frame (right side), click on right frame before printing. Daily Summary Daily Summary (with Wind Chill and Heat Index) Daily Summary Time Series Monthly Summary Monthly Summary (w/ Et data) Time Series Graph Wind Rose Graph and Tables Wind Stability/Wind Rose Graph and Tables Hourly Frequency Distribution/Histogram Data Lister Data Inventory (Monthly Graphic) Station Metadata BOLD, Red indicates some data available for month and year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1988 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1987 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1985 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Western Regional Climate Center,

25 YMP 1 View to West YMP 2 View to South View to East View to North

26 Back to: NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada NOTE: To print data frame (right side), click on right frame before printing. Daily Summary Daily Summary (with Wind Chill and Heat Index) Daily Summary Time Series Monthly Summary Monthly Summary (w/ Et data) Time Series Graph Wind Rose Graph and Tables Wind Stability/Wind Rose Graph and Tables Hourly Frequency Distribution/Histogram Data Lister Data Inventory (Monthly Graphic) Station Metadata BOLD, Red indicates some data available for month and year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1988 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1987 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1985 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Western Regional Climate Center,

27

28 Day of Month Day of Year Total Solar Radiation Wind Average mph Vert. direction Maximum mph Temperature Mean Maximum Minimum Humidity Mean Maximum Minimum Dew Point Wet Bulb Barometric Pressure Total Precipitation Total Penman ET

29 Back to: NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada NOTE: To print data frame (right side), click on right frame before printing. Daily Summary Daily Summary (with Wind Chill and Heat Index) Daily Summary Time Series Monthly Summary Monthly Summary (w/ Et data) Time Series Graph Wind Rose Graph and Tables Wind Stability/Wind Rose Graph and Tables Hourly Frequency Distribution/Histogram Data Lister Data Inventory (Monthly Graphic) Station Metadata BOLD, Red indicates some data available for month and year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1988 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1987 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1985 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Western Regional Climate Center,

30 Time Series Graph YMP 1 Precipitation July 9-17, products available including: Temperature Precipitation Wind speed Wind direction Wind gusts Dew point temp Solar radiation Barometric pressure July 1, July 1, 2001

31 Back to: NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada NOTE: To print data frame (right side), click on right frame before printing. Daily Summary Daily Summary (with Wind Chill and Heat Index) Daily Summary Time Series Monthly Summary Monthly Summary (w/ Et data) Time Series Graph Wind Rose Graph and Tables Wind Stability/Wind Rose Graph and Tables Hourly Frequency Distribution/Histogram Data Lister Data Inventory (Monthly Graphic) Station Metadata BOLD, Red indicates some data available for month and year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1988 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1987 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1985 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Western Regional Climate Center,

32 Wind Rose Diagrams Night Period of record Jan 1986 through Dec 2005

33 NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada - Wind Frequency Table (percentage) Latitude : 36 50' 34" N Longitude : ' 50" W Elevation : 3750 ft. Start Date : Jan. 1, 1986 End Date : Dec. 31, 2005 # of Days : 7305 of 7305 # obs : poss : of Sub Interval Windows Start End Month Jan. Dec. Day Hour (Greater than or equal to initial interval value and Less than ending interval value.) Range (m/s) N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW Total Total(%) Calm (<1.3) 6.6 Ave Speed

34 NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada - Hourly Wind Statistics Table Latitude : 36 50' 34" N Longitude : ' 50" W Elevation : 3750 ft. Start Date : Jan. 1, 1986 End Date : Dec. 31, 2005 # of Days : 7305 of 7305 # obs : poss : of Time - Time of Day (L.S.T.) Speed - Average (Scalar) Speed in m/s U-Vel - East-West Velocity, Positive to East V-Vel - North-South Velocity, Positive to North Res Spd - Vector Average (resultant) Speed in m/s Res Dir - Vector Average (resultant) Direction Dir Con - Directional Constancy (Res Spd/Speed) Num Spd - Number of Wind Speed Observations Num Dir - Number of Wind Direction Observations Sub Interval Windows Start End Month Jan. Dec. Day Hour Time Speed U-Vel V-Vel Res Spd Res Dir Dir Con Num Spd Num Dir ALL

35 YMP 2 Period of record: July a.m. through 7 a.m. Period of record: July a.m. through 5 p.m. Period of record: July p.m. through 1 a.m.

36 Back to: NTS-60 (YMP 1) Nevada NOTE: To print data frame (right side), click on right frame before printing. Daily Summary Daily Summary (with Wind Chill and Heat Index) Daily Summary Time Series Monthly Summary Monthly Summary (w/ Et data) Time Series Graph Wind Rose Graph and Tables Wind Stability/Wind Rose Graph and Tables Hourly Frequency Distribution/Histogram Data Lister Data Inventory (Monthly Graphic) Station Metadata BOLD, Red indicates some data available for month and year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1988 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1987 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1985 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Western Regional Climate Center,

37 YMP 1 Stability Class A Extremely Unstable January July Evening to morning Mid-morning Night to daylight Late night Afternoon Day to early evening

38 YMP 1 Stability Class D Neutral Evening to morning Mid-morning Night to daylight Late night Afternoon Day to early evening January Class D - Neutral July Class D - Neutral

39 Modern met This software extends climate histories beyond the timeframes currently available in qualified reports without time-consuming number crunching Climate summaries generated may be used to evaluate environmental analyses of repository design facilities, and update input data to atmospheric dispersion and emergency planning models