Future Opportunities for Collaborations: Exoplanet Astronomers & Statisticians
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1 Future Opportunities for Collaborations: Exoplanet Astronomers & Statisticians Eric B. Ford Penn State Astronomy & Astrophysics Center for Astrostatistics Center for Exoplanets & Habitable Worlds Institute for CyberScience
2 Kepler: A Mission Designed to Do Statistics
3 A 2nd Mission designed for Statistics WFIRST (launch mid-2020 s) Search for microlensing events due to planets (and some cosmology) NASA/Goddard
4 Future Exoplanet Transit Missions NASA K2 (now) Same Spacecraft, New Mission ESA CHEOPS (launch 2017) Characterize known planets
5 Future Exoplanet Transit Missions NASA/MIT TESS (launch 2017) Small Planets around Bright Stars ESA/Thales Alenia Space PLATO (launch 2024) Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone of Bright Stars
6 James Webb Space Telescope
7 Period-Radius Distribution of Kepler s Planets (including strong planet candidates) Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
8 Extending Transit Planet Searches to Long Orbital Periods D. Foreman-Mackey
9 Planet Occurrence Rate at Long Periods DFM et al. in prep
10 Starlight From Telescope Separate Light by Wavelength Echelle Spectrometer CCD Echelle Grating Collimator
11 Measuring Masses of Exoplanets
12 Period-Radius Distribution of Kepler s Planets (including strong planet candidates) Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
13 Planet Masses Measured with Doppler Follow-up Observations Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
14 Upcoming Challenges for K2, TESS, CHEOPS & PLATO Light curve analysis (greater importance of instrumental effects than Kepler) Discriminating astrophysical false positives (larger pixels than Kepler) D. Foreman-Mackey
15 Planet Hunting Spectrographs Now: HIRES, HARPS, HARPS-N, APF Soon (NIR): CARMENES, SPIRou, HET/HPF ilocator Soon (Optical): HET/HRS, MINERVA, ESPRESSO, EXPRES, NEID, SHREK Credit: M. Wong Credit: Frank Cianciolo/McDonald Observatory
16 Upcoming Challenges for K2, TESS, CHEOPS & PLATO Confirmation, masses and orbits from Radial Velocity follow-up observations Stellar activity: Machine learning to extract additional information from spectra Multiple planets per star: Necessity of algorithms for ~dozens-dimensional models Biases created by follow-up observing programs: Algorithmic adaptive scheduling, ABC,
17 Radial Velocity Planet Amplitude vs Publication Date
18 Raw Data for Star s Spectrum Measure Shift of Absorption Lines to Determine the Radial Velocity of Star. Sharp/NOAO/NSO@Kit Peak/AURA/NSF
19 Kepler s Multiplanet Systems
20 Spacing of Kepler s Multi-Planet Systems Raw, unweighted, smoothed Filtered (i.e., both planet s transit Signal-to-Noise >16 & Impact Parameter < 0.8), unweighted & smoothed Filtered, Weighted by inverse geometric probability of both planets transiting, & smoothed Brakensiek & Ragozzine 2016
21 Most Known Planets are already in Multiple Transiting Planet Systems R. Morehead Ph.D. 2016/Morehead et al. in prep.
22 Planet Masses Measured with Transit Timing Variations Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
23 M-R Observations for Low-Mass Planets Orange = Mass measured from TTVs Green = Mass measured from RVs Figures: Daniel Jontof-Hutter
24 Preliminary Results Comparing Mass- Radius Distributions from RVs & TTVs Figures: Angie Wolfgang
25 Hierarchical Model to Eliminate Bias by Including All Near-Resonant Pairs Figure: M. Shabram (Ph.D. 2015)
26 SAMSI Program on Statistical, Mathematical and Computational Methods for Astronomy Opening workshop Aug 22-26, 2016 Proposed working groups: Uncertainty Quantification and Reduced Order Modeling in Gravitation, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Synoptic Time Domain Surveys Time Series Analysis for Exoplanets & Gravitational Waves: Beyond Stationary Gaussian Processes Population Modeling & Signal Separation for Exoplanets & Gravitational Waves Statistics, computation, and modeling in cosmology
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