Validation of Transiting Planet Candidates with BLENDER

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1 Validation of Transiting Planet Candidates with BLENDER Willie Torres Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille, 14 May May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 1

2 Historical Perspective First transiting planet candidates released by the OGLE survey (Udalski et al. 2001) Great excitement: several teams struggled to produce Doppler confirmations Much telescope time was invested Many candidates from other wide-field surveys (e.g., TrES) Some false starts 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 2

3 Sample light curves from OGLE 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 3

4 General Philosophy of BLENDER Back-of-the-envelope assessments of blend likelihood are not good enough Use detailed shape information contained in the light curves Fit simulated (realistic) blend models to original photometry: background EBs, stars+planets, etc. If fit is unacceptably poor, blend can be rejected Predict properties of a blend that can be compared against observations Use of isochrones to simulate blends 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 4

5 Validation becomes necessary when dynamical confirmation is not possible, by the detection of the effect of a planet on the star or on other planets Reflex Doppler motion (+ bisector analysis) Transit timing variations in multiple systems General approach of BLENDER Estimate likelihood of a false positive Estimate likelihood of a true planet (planet prior ) Compute the odds ratio: must be such that a true planet is much more likely than a false positive (greater than the 3σ confidence level) VALIDATION References: Torres et al. 2004, 2011; Fressin et al. 2011; and many Kepler papers; refinements still in progress 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 5

6 Types of False Positive Configurations Considered in BLENDER Background or foreground EB Background or foreground star transited by a planet Physically associated EB (hierarchical triples) Rarely works when light curves are of high quality Physically associated companion transited by a (larger) planet Valid type of blend when searching for planets of specific sizes Additional stars in the photometric aperture can cause extra dilution that must be account for 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 6

7 Exploring Blend Parameter Space EBs and star+planet light curves generated within BLENDER with EBOP (binary light-curve program) Relevant blend properties Secondary / tertiary mass for EBs (M 2,M 3 ) Tertiary radius R 3 (if blend is star+planet) Impact parameter b (inclination angle) Transit duration relative to circular orbit D/D circ (e, ) Relative distance between target and background or foreground object (distance modulus difference, ) Absolute distance scale set by total apparent magnitude May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 7

8 Properties for primary taken from isochrone (based on spectroscopic T eff, [Fe/H], log g, when available) Secondary and tertiary properties taken from same or different isochrone, depending on configuration Differential extinction accounted for in BLENDER Free parameters for the various scenarios: Physically associated EB: M 2, M 3, b, D/D circ Companion star + planet: M 2, R 3, b, D/D circ Background / foreground EB: M 2, M 3, b, D/D circ, Background / foreground star + planet: M 2, R 3, b, D/D circ, Parameter space very large: BLENDER explores up to ~10 9 false positive configurations in a fine grid over wide ranges in each parameter, to establish constraints on blend properties May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 8

9 Obtaining Constraints on the Parameters of Blends Use 2 as a measure of the goodness of fit of a blend model Compute the 2 of the fit for each blend scenario Compute the 2 for a planet model, to use as a reference In most cases the best blend fit is visually as good as a planet fit A blend fit with a 2 much larger than that of a planet fit is considered to be rejected (e.g., at the 3σ level) Background EB blend models Kepler-10c (2.1σ) (10σ) Fressin et al May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 9

10 Background EBs Visualization of BLENDER constraints for Kepler-66b (Meibom et al. 2013) 1 Viable blends 2 3 Background/foreground transiting planets Viable blends Physical triples (star+planet) 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 10

11 Best blend model Background eclipsing binary scenario Changes in light curve shape 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 11

12 Incorporating Observational Constraints Centroid motion analysis from Kepler images Centroid motion angular separation and flux decrement 3σ exclusion limit CM Color information (griz+jhk s, from the KIC) Blend can be too blue or too red compared to measured color index 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 12

13 High-resolution imaging (sensitivity curves) Adaptive optics imaging Speckle imaging 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 13

14 High-resolution spectroscopy: limits on the brightness of companions that may fall within the slit Simulations Simulated companion temperature (K) Sensitivity as a function of RV and the temperature of the companion 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 14

15 Spitzer observations Transits should be achromatic Constraints on SpT (or mass) of intruding star # Kepler-18c and 18d Spitzer Fressin et al CoRoT-7b Kepler Cochran et al May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 15

16 Borucki et al Kepler-62e 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 16

17 Borucki et al Kepler-62e 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 17

18 Borucki et al Kepler-62e 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 18

19 Computing Blend Frequencies From Monte Carlo Simulations Use constraints from BLENDER, and any followup observations available Main assumptions Binary and planet frequencies, from previous work Period, eccentricity, and mass ratio distributions for binary companions from multiplicity surveys Stellar properties from isochrones Example of a blend configuration consisting of a physically associated star transited by a planet 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 19

20 Simulations for Kepler candidates Draw a random stellar companion using binary mass ratio distribution, and check against allowed BLENDER range of M 2 1 Compute blend color using isochrones, and check 2 against measured color of target Assign random binary orbital period, eccentricity, orientation, and phase, and compute Check and brightness against centroid limit CM, and against high-resolution imaging Compute orbital RV and apply spectroscopic criterion on brightness if < slit half-width Check RV drift against RV observations, if any Assign a random planet to the companion from KOI list, and random e Check if {R p,e} are allowed by BLENDER Apply dynamical stability criterion (Holman & Weigert 1999) Repeat many times, and count viable blends May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 20

21 Account for binary and planet frequencies Perform similar Monte Carlo simulations for other blend configurations Background EBs Background stars transited by a planet For background scenarios, draw stars from Besançon Galactic population model near the location of the target, and apply appropriate BLENDER constraints in the same way as before Add up all blend frequencies for the three cases Odds ratio planet prior / total blend frequency (> 370, or 3σ confidence level) 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 21

22 Estimating the Planet Prior For easy cases, use information available from KOI list Count number of actual planets detected in the appropriate radius (and period) range (R p ± 3σ), using KOI list, and divide by total number of Kepler targets KOI list is neither complete nor pure; need to correct for biases (MC simulations: Fressin et al. 2013) Correct for incompleteness: around what fraction of Kepler targets would such planets be detected? Correct for contamination from false positives 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 22

23 Numerical example from the 3-planet system Kepler-68 (Gilliland et al. 2013) Kepler-68c Kepler-68b Kepler-68c R p = 0.95 R P = 9.6 days 53 ppm Blend freq. Background EBs Background star+planet Physical companion+planet Total blend frequency Planet prior = (71 9.4) / (9.7% 138,253) = False positive contamination Completeness Odds ratio = / CANDIDATE VALIDATED 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 23

24 Determining the planet prior is more difficult in some cases because the statistics from Kepler are not yet robust enough Very small candidates (R p much less than 1 R ) Candidates with very long orbital periods (~200 days or more) Small candidates with long periods (the most interesting, potentially habitable!) In these cases reasonable extrapolations of planet frequencies are required to establish the planet prior 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 24

25 Five-planet system Kepler-62 Kepler-62c Borucki et al Planet priors require extrapolations Kepler-62f 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 25

26 Summary of BLENDER validations 2013 May 14 Planet Validation Workshop, Marseille 26

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