A Tail of Two Comets. by Paul Robinson. PanSTARRS and ISON

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1 A Tail of Two Comets by Paul Robinson PanSTARRS and ISON

2 Comet PanSTARRS 2011-L4 Panoramic Survey Telescope And Rapid Response System Perihelion March 10, 2013: 0.30 AU from sun. Only about 3 weeks away!! May reach magnitude 1.5 March 9 th. Will be low in the evening sky in dim twilight slowly getting higher in following weeks as it fades. Will have nice dust tail curving to the left.

3 Comet PanSTARRS s orbit March T=March 10 April 19 9 Feb Feb March April 9 19

4 Comet PanSTARRS orbit relative to the Earth and Sun to show tail orientation and viewing geometry Jan Apr 5 Feb Mar 4 Earth Sun

5 Comet PanSTARRS in the evening sky Horizon, comet, stars and moon shown on March 12, 20 minutes before the end of twilight = 7:15 pm add 1 minute for each day after March 12 Ares Andr 10 o Peg Cetus Horizon at end of twilight W 15 Moon Horizon 10 min before end of twilight Horizon 20 min before end of twilight NW 10 Horizon 30 min before end of twilight Horizon 40 min before end of twilight 7 Mars Sun

6 PanSTARRS magnitude performance as of mid January... Max mag 3.0

7 Other misbehaving comets: Hale-Bopp Note temporary lulls in brightening, as opposed to permanent changes. Brightening was able to resume at its previous rate.

8 Other misbehaving comets: Kohoutek Note longterm changes in brightening rate.

9 PanSTARRS magnitude performance Since... Max mag 1.7 Looks like fading period was temporary!

10 PanSTARRS current observations The pictures below are all about the same scale according to their source web site, and show a brightening, growing comet. The tail looks DUSTY. Jan 9 Jan 10 Jan 17 Feb 7

11 PanSTARRS current observations Feb. 13 from New Zealand Feb. 15 from Argentina

12 PanSTARRS current observations Feb. 17 from Australia

13 Comet ISON 2012-S1 International Scientific Optical Network Perihelion November 28, 2013: AU from sun. May be as bright as magnitude -13 Nov. 28 th. Visible in morning sky; southeast before, and northeast after perihelion. May be visible in daylight on Nov. 28 th! May have very impressive, long tail after perihelion in December morning sky.

14 Comet ISON s orbit Oct T=Nov Nov 8 8 Nov Dec 28 8 Dec Oct

15 Comet ISON orbit relative to the Earth and Sun to show tail orientation and viewing geometry 1 Oct Jan 4, Nov Earth Dec 5 Sun

16 Comet ISON in the morning sky Comet, horizon & planets at 6:00 am Nov December o 8 Mercury Saturn 23 November E 3 SE 28

17 Comet ISON in the day time Nov. 28 th, 2013 ** Be VERY CAREFUL viewing around the SUN!** Sunset Times (red) are hour, MST with Positions valid for Boulder. Grid in degrees of azimuth and altitude relative to sun at each time Sun Sunrise 8 7 Time Mag 7: : : : : : : : : : : Sunrise -5.0!

18 Comet ISON s magnitude performance so far...

19 Why should ISON behave??!! It s orbit strongly resembles that of the Great Comet of 1680 If part of that comet, it has been near the sun before. This implies that its current magnitude should be a good predictor of its future brightness

20 Latest Comet ISON photo Feb. 7 Mag 15.0 galaxy

21 Comet ISON s tail prediction based on performance of Comet Lovejoy in 2011 because of the stunning similarity of their observational geometry...

22 Comet ISON s tail prediction based on performance of Comet Lovejoy in Comet Lovejoy 2011 Oct Jan 4, Comet ISON Nov Earth Dec 5 Sun

23 Tail length (deg) Comet ISON s tail prediction Comet Lovejoy s tail length in degrees -> AU by geometry Dt Len (AU) Days after

24 Tail length (Au) Comet ISON s tail prediction Comet Lovejoy s tail length in AU -> ISON s length in deg by geometry Comet ISON tail estimates Dt Len (deg) Date Dec Dec Dec Dec 24 Merry Christmas! Days after

25 A Tail of Two Comets by Paul Robinson Thank You!!

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