Quantifying False Positive Probabilities for Transiting Planet Candidates

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1 Quantifying False Positive Probabilities for Transiting Planet Candidates Timothy Morton (Princeton) Sagan Workshop July 20, 2016

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5 OGLE planet candidates, c.2004 Unsuitable for follow-up Stellar Binaries No RVs at km/s level 6 8 Early spectral type

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7 OGLE-TR-33 Torres 2004

8 OGLE-TR-33 Torres et al. (2004)

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11 OGLE-TR-33 Torres 2004

12 OGLE-TR-33 Torres 2004

13 TRES-1 b Alonso+ (2004) V = 11.4 Follow-up observations: H- and K- band AO imaging Medium-resolution spectroscopy (7 epochs) Multi-color transit photometry (3 facilities, 7 filters) Keck/HIRES RV spectroscopy (8 epochs) 80% false positive rate for this survey

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16 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

17 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

18 BLENDER Torres+ (2011)

19 Kepler- 22b Borucki et al. (2011): Imaging from 3 different facilities (seeing- limited, speckle, AO) Keck/HIRES spectroscopy at 17 epochs 17 hours of Warm Spitzer observation to measure transit color dependence BLENDER analysis

20 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

21 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

22 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

23 light curve shape Planet Stellar EB δ τ (δ, T, T/τ) T Simulate representative populations

24 Hierarchical EB Scenario

25 Transiting Planet Scenario

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38 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

39 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

40 github.com/timothydmorton

41 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

42 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

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44 TDM+ (2016)

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48 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

49 Kepler-10 system b confirmed by RVs c validated with BLENDER Kepler 4b-7b announced TDM & Johnson predict >90% reliability Fressin+ corroborate low FP rate First K2 validations 17 planets isochrones and vespa introduced/released Kepler validations Kepler launch Kepler-9 system First public Kepler candidate catalog b,c confirmed by TTVs d validated with BLENDER Kepler-22b 700+ multi-kois validated TDM: automated validation procedure First Kepler habitable-zone planet validated with BLENDER 100+ K2 validations

50 isochrones and vespa

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