Properties, Pitfalls, Payoffs, and Promises. B. Scott Gaudi Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

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1 Properties, Pitfalls, Payoffs, and Promises B. Scott Gaudi Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

2 Outline: Star and Planet Formation Migrating Planets Basic Properties of Planet Transits Challenges in Transit Surveys The Menagerie of Transit Surveys Field Searches Properties and Implications Cluster Searches Properties and Future Prospects Extrasolar Earths

3 Collaborators Chris Burke (OSU) Darren DePoy (OSU) Susan Dorsher (OSU) Andrew Gould (OSU) Joel Hartman (CfA) Matt Holman (CfA) Gabriela Mallen-Ornelas (CfA) Joshua Pepper (OSU) Sara Seager (DTM) Kris Stanek (CfA)

4 Jargon AU Astronomical Unit. Mean Earth-Sun Distance pc Parallax Second Distance at which an object s parallax would subtend one second of arc Metallicity Mass fraction of elements above He Main Sequence/Giant Star AU = pc = cm cm Constants M M M Sun J = = = g g 10 3 M g 3 10 Sun 6 M Sun R R R Sun J = = = cm cm 0.1R Sun cm 0.01R Sun

5 Hogerheijde 1998 Star Formation 101 Molecular Cloud Cores Collapse Ignition/Outflow Protoplanetary Disk Planetary System

6 Planet Formation 101 Core-accretion Model Dust Planetesimals (non G) Planetesimals Protoplanets Protoplanets Gas Giants (Outer Solar System) Protoplanets Terrestrial Planets (Inner Solar System)

7 Predictions Three types of Planets Terrestrial Planets Gas Giants Ice Giants Segregation in Mass/Separation (Ida & Lin 2004)

8 Predictions Three types of Planets Terrestrial Planets Gas Giants Ice Giants Segregation in Mass/Separation

9 Reality Close-In Planets Hot Jupiters Cannot have formed in situ How did they acquire their strange real estate?

10 Migration Four Classes of Migration: Frederic Masset Type 0 Grains Gas Drag PR Drag Yarkovsky Drag Type I Protoplanets Disk-Planet Torque Type II Planets Gap Accretion Type III Planets Partial Gap

11 Open Questions What halts planetary migration? Which types of migration are most important? Migration Formation Migration Physical Properties

12 Close-In Planets Pile-Up at P ~ 3 days Dearth of Planets with P < 3 days Lack of High-Mass, Close-In Planets Hot Neptunes with P < 3 days Massive, very close-in Very Hot Neptunes

13 Transits - Observables Given a small transit signature, what can we learn? Can we tell that it s a planet? Can we measure its radius, separation (semimajor axis)?

14 Fractional Photometric Deviation Transits - Observables Duration = t T Time Depth = δ

15 Fractional Photometric Deviation Transits - Observables Period = P Time

16 Transits Parameters Measure δ,t, T P Depth R p δ = R * Duration t T * b µ θ * Period 2π P = GM R* P = 1 b 2 a π * 2 a 3/ 2 Infer R, a P µ * θ * bθ *

17 Stars 101 Main Sequence H Burning R M, L M * * Giants Exhausted H 7 / 2 Burning He or H in shell L,T M,R,density Flux, Color L,T Need d, extinction. Spectrum (T,g) Cluster d,extinction

18 Transits Parameters Measure δ,t, P T 0 Infer R p δ = R * R* P t T = 1 b a π 2π 3/ 2 P = a GM 2 * δ, t, P, T b (Accurate LC, M-R Relation) ρ ; * * * ( M, R ); Rp, a δ,, P;( T, g) t T (Spectroscopic Data) ( * * M, R ); Rp, a

19 Transits RV Follow-Up Low Mass Degeneracy Pressure R M 1/3 Pont et al H-burning Limit High Mass Ideal Gas + Ion Pressure R M Need to measure mass of the planet Radial Velocity K = 28.4m/s 2 (1 e ) 1/ 2 M p M sin i J P 1yr 1/3 M M * sun 2/3

20 Transits Detection What is required to detect a planet orbiting a star via transits? What is the probability of detecting a planet around a star? How precise to my measurements need to be? How many stars to I need to look at? How long do I have to look at these stars?

21 Transits Detection P = P P T Q P W P P T Q P W Gaudi (2000) Probability that Planet Transits Probability of Exceeding S/N Requirement Probability of Transit(s) Occurring in Window

22 Transits Detection P = P P T Q P W a i P T = cos i 0 1 min d (cos i) d (cos i) = R * + a R p R a * 0

23 Transits Detection P = P P T Q P W S/N = Signal to Noise Ratio Must exceed some threshold σ δ S = N 1/ N t 2 δ σ

24 Transits Detection W Q T P P = P P 1% 2 * = R R p δ t N tot a R N π * = d L F 2 1/ 2 / 1 σ 1 1/2 * 3/2 * 2 /2 1 d L R R a N S p

25 Transits Detection P = P P T Q P W Window Probability- probability that 2 transits occur during the observation windows. 19 nights 10 nights Duty < > 10 3 N < P W Cycle P W 11 > 3 11 R = * π a 5%

26 Transits Detection P = P P T Q P W P T P Q P W 8% 1 20% (3d<P<11d, logarithmic) (3d<P<11d, logarithmic) P =1.6% N det = 1 P N fn P * < 0. 1 * 1.6% % f a AU

27 Transits Requirements Confirmation and Parameter Estimation Accurate Light Curves Follow-up Spectroscopic Radial Velocity Detection Many Stars Accurate Photometry Lots of Observing Time Why Bother? Possible Using Small Telescopes Distant Targets Large Fields of View + Dense Stellar Fields Rare Objects, Distinct Populations

28 Transits Flavors Bright Targets RV Follow-up All-Sky Intermediate Targets Large FOV STARE, Vulcan, WASP Faint Targets Field Stars (Galactic Disk) EXPLORE, OGLE Clusters PISCES, EXPORT, STEPSS Amenable to Follow-up RV, Oblateness, Atmospheres, Rings, Moons, etc. Not Amenable to Follow-up Primaries too faint for detailed follow-up Masses and Radii only. Why? Statistics!

29 Radial Velocity Surveys ~3000 FGKM Stars 28.4m/s M p K = 2 1/ Planets Found (1 ) e M One Planet with P<3: P = 2. 55d Single Measurement Precision K =1m/s 3m/s Complete to K 20m/s M i 0.2M sin i J 1 P yr 1/3 p sin J for P < 9d M M * sun 2/3

30 Field Surveys - OGLE 5 4 Planets Found by OGLE Discovered Very Hot Jupiters P 1d

31 Radial Velocity vs. Transits Very Hot Jupiters: 1 Hot Jupiters: 15 Round 1 Very Hot Jupiters: 3 Hot Jupiters: 1 r = 1/15 r Inconsistency? 0.07 = 3 /1 = Very Hot Jupiters not real? Transit Surveys Bogus? Different Populations? 3

32 Sensitivity of a S/N-Limited Survey N = P fnv t max Transit Probability P t R = P a * 2/3 Signal-to-Noise S N a d Ωd = Pt fn 3 P 3 max d 1/ 2 1 1/3 1 d max n At Limiting Signal-to-Noise: d max P 1/3 and P t 2/3 P

33 Sensitivity of a S/N-Limited Survey d max P 1/3 and P t 2/3 P d max ( P 1 ) N 3 Pt fd max d max ( P 2 ) N f ( P) Pd t 3 f ( P) max P 5/3 Transit surveys are ~6 times more sensitive to 1 day period planets than 3 day period planets!

34 Radial Velocity vs. Transits Very Hot Jupiters: 1 Hot Jupiters: 15 Round 2 Very Hot Jupiters: 3 Hot Jupiters: 1 r = 1/ r = 3 /(1 6) = 0.5 Still Inconsistent?

35 Radial Velocity vs. Transits Round 3 Poisson Distribution P( N M ) = e M M N! N r = r =

36 Radial Velocity vs. Transits Gaudi, Seager, & Mallen-Ornelas 2005 Relative Frequency of VHJ to HJ is ~ 10-20%

37 Radial Velocity vs. Transits Additional Biases Implications VHJ ~ transiting HJ One in ~ FGK Stars has a VHJ VHJs more massive? 2 x Roche Limit RV VHJ? (HD 73256b) Different (mass-dependent) parking mechanisms? Neptune-mass planets? (influenced by companions?)

38 Searches toward Stellar Systems Advantages: Primaries have common properties Explore the effects of: Stellar Density Age Metallicity [Fe/H]>0 Primaries have known properties Statistics easy. Avoid many false positives. Compact systems Point-and-shoot Disadvantages: Relatively Faint Stars Follow-up difficult Small Number of Stars Difficult to probe f<5% Requirements: Many (20) Consecutive Nights Relatively Large FOV Modest Aperture

39 Survey for Transiting Extrasolar Planets in Stellar Systems (STEPSS) (Open Clusters) Setup MDM 1.3m & 2.4m 8192x8192 4x2 Mosaic CCD 25x25 arcmin^ /pixel NGC nights 1 Gyr [Fe/H]~0.0 Members: Chris Burke, S.G., Darren DePoy, Rick Pogge

40 Burke et al., in prep Searches toward Stellar Systems 4-5 minute sampling 15 nights with data 9 full nights 0 photometric nights

41 Searches toward Stellar Systems Sensitive to Jupiters for G0-M0 primaries G0 K0 K5 M0 ~1000 cluster members S a R R L d N Main-Sequence Stars At Fixed S R N 1/ 2 2 3/ 2 1/ 2 1 p * * R* M, L M 7 / 2 * a, R, p d 3/ 2 1/ 2 1/ 4 * L* M *

42 Searches toward Stellar Systems

43 Searches toward Stellar Systems Period = 2.77 days, Depth ~ 4% Grazing Binary

44 Searches toward Stellar Systems NGC 1245 Efficiency Calculation Underway <5% VHJ, <30% HJ. NGC nights ~3000 Stars Improved Statistics NGC 2682 (M67) 20 nights ~2000 Stars Future 1-2 More Clusters

45 Future Prospects Hot Neptunes?

46 Future Prospects Hot Neptunes? Hot Neptunes R δ 2 10 N R Sun 3 <0.1% Photometry 1.2m Large Telescopes MMT 6.5m NGC 6791 Better than 0.1% Jupiter Neptune 6.5m Joel Hartman, Kris Stanek, Matt Holman, S.G

47 Future Prospects Hot Neptunes? Jupiter Neptune Joel Hartman, Kris Stanek, Matt Holman, S.G

48 Future Prospects Hot Neptunes? Very Hot Neptune Search Cluster Selection ~20 Nights on MMT (or 6m Telescope) Rising Mass Function?

49 Conclusions: Transiting planets can tell us about migration planet formation. Consideration of transit basics reveals: Require accurate photometry Follow-up for characterization & confirmation Require ~10,000 stars Long observational campaigns Understanding Field Surveys RV and TR Surveys Consistent VHJ are uncommon Hot Neptunes within reach.

50 Future Prospects Extrasolar Earths? (Ida & Lin 2004)

51 Future Prospects Extrasolar Earths? Radial Velocity: Next Generation Survey? 1 m/s limit? -hard + ground based, flexible,cheap, unlimited observing time, nearby stars (TPF) Astrometry: SIM 1 µas limit - space-based, very expensive, hard to confirm + flexible, nearby stars (TPF) Transits: Kepler - spaced-based, expensive, distant stars, very difficult to confirm +habitable, simple Microlensing: MPF, Ground Based? -expensive, distant stars, impossible(?) to confirm +very low mass planets, robust statistics, many detections Direct: TPF, Darwin

52 Future Prospects Extrasolar Earths? Earth-mass planet sensitivities conventional realistic optimized optimized Comparison to with other other methods. methods SIM: 2000 hrs over 5 years, SIM: P=3yr, 1µas P=3yr, systematic 2000 hours limit. over 5 Kepler: years, σ=1µas. Planet in habitable zone, Kepler: parameters. Habitable zone, Kepler parameters RV: Four dedicated 2m telescopes RV: P=0.5yr, four dedicated 2m over Epsilon 5 years, (60,000 Eridani: hrs), S/N P=0.5yr ~13 telescopes, 60,000 hrs, σ=1m/s Microlensing: a=2.5au. Microlensing: a=2.5au What S/N threshold? Conventionally: S/N ~ 8 Realistic: S/N ~25 (Gould, Gaudi, & Han 2004) Optimization

53 Future Prospects Extrasolar Earths? Earth-mass planet sensitivities Comparison with other methods, cont. Every star has a Earth-mass planet with period P Each technique is confronted with the same ensemble of planetary systems. Even under optimistic assumptions, only ~5 Earth-mass planets with P=1 year detected with S/N > 25! Efforts can and should be made to ensure and improve these statistics. (Gould, Gaudi, & Han 2004)

54 Conclusions: Earths are Hard

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