Keywords:Tectonic of Lithospheric Plates, GPS systems, prediction of earthquakes.
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1 Te Reer of Loper Ple Teo of e Er o e Be of D of Seoo GPS Se e Solo of Prole of El Teor d e Erqe Predo L.. glo Ie of Me of S of re SUMMRY: Moder ee oe e re of rog erqe e Loper Ple eo of e Er 95% of e erqe. Te eee of dee e of eoo d oder elle GPS e per o follo e eor of e Er Loper Ple d epre pr perel prlrl o ere e dplee of po o e fl rfe of e Loper Ple d epre pr d follo er ge e. I r per o deere e re-r e of e ple d follo ge e ge e erl. Te orrepodg oll ree-deol prole of el eor oled. I proed e olo eoe ell e e e fo eerg e odr odo rele o dplee re polol. ollog e d of e re-r e ge of Loper Ple pole o gle o ore eodgero oe of e Er e ge oe. Keord:Teo of Loper Ple GPS e predo of erqe.. ITRODUCTIO Te oder ee oe e re of rog erqe e eo of Loper ple of e Er 95% of erqe Po e l 97 Kr 98. d re e Loper ple of e Er? I o e ple Er o oogeeo e Er rd = 678 d o of e er r pper d loer le; oer d er erel eled o e e of e geologl d oer ego. rle e eell dffere peed of propgo e ler of logdl Vp d ro er e V re e de fere of dfferee of ee ler. Te poer e of e er r o e oe ge fro o 7 e oe fro 5 o 5. Te er r oled fro e pper le Mooro Moo erfe.e. e order o e peed of e logdl el e ree p-le p o e le oer 8e. ere e er r ll 6-7 e. Vp=74e. I e od of e er r ree lere re oled e rer: I edel ler Vp 5 e. = 5 II gr ler Vp 6 e. = 4 III l ler 65 Vp 74 e. =5. Te er r d pr of e pper le p o e order o o pere lled Lopere. Te Lopere pl o oe g pee re lled ple. Te ere of e ple ge fro dred p o oe od. Te gge Loper ple of e Er re:
2 rd Er Id-rl fr So-er or-er Pf lppe ol r d oer Loper ple. Te geogrp of e e of e errerl gloe po o e f e oerelg or of e erqe re groped o relel leder oe e oe e d eo e of re l red o er o of dere o e oer Loper ple re eed o rele dplee log er og rfe. To pe of eo oee re dged: lo er d q p-le oeed e erqe. I e e of e e proe of lo ro deforo e reg rl le -4 d Re d 47-5 rg o glol dero e pr of e lo of e gre poel of eerg oled e for of olе P logdl or prr d S eodr or er e pred peed Vp d V. V p E V G E.5 V V. 7V l Vp V. p W e elp of e peed Vp V e epeer of e erqe fo deered. Hg e d for ree e o o lg e e ple e epeer of e erqe deered gre ee. ro e ed oe e derled pore of deero of re-r e of e Er Loper ple d e oorg of ge e follo. or pole o e erg d of e rer dee e of e eg eoo d elle GPS e prlrl ere e le of e po dplee of e Loper ple rfe. I e pper e olo of e orrepodg ree-deol prole of el eor for oelered ple d llered pe fro ple perg o fd re-r e of e ple or e pe o e e of e d of eoo d GPS e re fod. Te orrepodg prole oll odr-le prole e odo e re re ol ge o e fl rfe of e ple or e pe e orrepodg ree eor opoe re eql o ero e le of e po of rfe e d of eoo d GPS e re o. B e fod olo e e oppor o follo e ge of e re-r e d reel e rl e e ell ple.. THE BSIC EQUTIOS D ORMULTIO O THE BOUDRY-VLUE PROBLEM Le e pe fro ororop ler opg re D { : } g.. I reqred o fd e olo of e eqo d orrelo of ree-deol prole of el eor g o o e ole fore prlrl e eg of e ler d eperre o Del-e odel glo 997 Le 98:
3 ... e ; e. der e odr odo. d der e odo of fll o eee e ler for ler re re e for of H H H... H H. ere re e ree eor opoe re e ee of e ler re e o of el re e dplee eor opoe re e oeffe of e eperre eeo e eer e odo Eq.. preer rerg e ree d dplee le for efored ge e.e. e oe of e e e deo of e o d GPS e ere oded. gre. Pe fro ororop ler
4 Te odo o e lerl rfe of e pe re o defed oreel ler ll e o e olo of odr ler pe orrepod o e.e. olo deree ql epoell e reog fro e lerl rfe o e de e pe. I prl pplo e odr ler ll egleed.. THE SYMPTOTIC SOLUTIO O THE PROBLEM I order o ole e e p odr-le prole e eqo d orrelo Eq.. e p o deole rle d dplee. rel glrl perred e rele o ll preer oed. Te olo of e Eq.. oed of e olo of e er prole I d e odr ler I glo 997 fe Te olo of e er prole og e for of glo 997 glo 8 M. ere d ler e oo M e g e repeg de egеr le fro ero o e er of pproo M. Sg Eq.. o e rfored ordg Eq.. e Eq.. d eqlg e eqo e oeffe der e e degree for deero e ge e e... ; ; ; e Se Eq.. per egro rel e e
5 ere d.5 44 d d d... Q I geerl e e olo Eq..4 Eq..5 o 6 o fo.. re qel deered fro odr odo Eq.. d 6- odo of e o Eq... We oder e proe of lo of rl deforo q e eqo of eqlr e ee ed Eq... Te eod per o oder d prole ell. We dere e proedre of fo of odo Eq.. Eq... fr e le of e fr ler re deered e of e fo of e odo Eq.. glo. Ug e forle Eq.. Eq..4 Eq..5 d fg e odo Eq.. e e
6 .6 Hg e olo Eq..6 e orrepodg forle Eq..4 Eq..5 e ree re deered. So e le of e fr ler ere opleel deered fer e fo of e odo Eq... Hg e le of e ree d dplee of e fr ler e of fo of e o odo Eq.. eee e fr d eod ler ll e dered le of e eod ler re deered. Te g e o odo Eq.. eee e eod d rd ler e ree d dplee of e rd ler re deered d ler e e e le of e re of e ler re deered. I geerl e e fo of e odo Eq.. for rrr ler rg o e olo of e follog rerre eqo 44 ; ; ;.7 H H fro ere d fro e forle Eq..4 follo ; ;
7 or e fr ler e e e olo Eq..6 e fro Eq..8 e olo for e eod ler ll e deered e olo of e rd ler deered e.. T e odo Eq.. Eq.. red o o e ffe for deero of ll e dered le of ll e ler. ro ere follo e olo of e odr ler I ll e deered depedel d ll reoe oordo e fg e odr odo o e lerl rfe. deoed oe prl pplo rle e odr ler egleed. 4. O MTHEMTICLLY EXCT SOLUTIOS If e fo eerg e odr odo Eq.. re polol fro e ered proe of deero off o er pproo depedg o e degree of e polol. rel e o ell e olo e er prole. or e llro of ee d oe e olo of e odr prole Eq.. Eq.. ll e rog d 4. Ug e forle Eq..6 Eq..8 e o e oed e pproo ll e dffere fro ero. Cllg ee pproo for ree-lered pe ordg o e forle Eq.. Eq.. e follog e olo ll e oed: e le of e fr ler e le of e -rd ler...
8 66 4. O e e of e oo reglre forle Eq. 4. Eq. 4. o dffl o re o e e olo of e er prole for -lered pe. or e pe of e fe gel deo loe o e lerl rfe o olo e olo of e odr ler old e dded. Te oe rog proper of e olo e por ppled gfe. Rell le for e oe of e e d of e o d GPS e o po of e fl rfe of -lered pe fodo-e. Te e dplee of e fl rfe e repreeed e for of Lgrge polol 4.4 ere e prod. Sg Eq.4.4 o e forle Eq.. Eq.. Eq..4 Eq..8 fer e fl er of ero e deere ell e olo of e prole orrepodg o e deo of e o d GPS e.e. e re-r e of e ole pe orrepodg o e. Moder opol ool deere olo fe e. Codg e oorg of e olo e d oerg e ge of e re-r e of repole rre oro re e dgero oe e fll repreeo o e oro re e e opoed d e pol of rl o re e reeled. 5. COCLUSIO Moder ee l rele e eergee of rog erqe o Loper ple eo of e Er 95% of erqe. I pper e prole of deerg re-r e of Loper ple ed o eqo d relo of e ree-deol prole of el eor d d of e o d GPS e odered. Te orrepodg o-ll ree-deol prole oled e po eod. Te d fro GPS e d e o o e le of dplee of po of e fe rfe of ple pproed Lgrge polol d e orrepodg ell e olo of e erl prole dered. Trg e eor of re-r e of Loper ple oer e oorg prode oppor for elg e ple d e of rl re-r e ledg o glol
9 dero. Togeer e l of olo peoe opg erqe ope for predo rog erqe. KCOWLEDGEMET Te ego flflled e ppor gr -46 of Se Coee of See of re. REERECES Po X. Le ree J. Bo J. 97. Ple eo. Eleer. Kr K. 98. Erqe Me. Crdge Uer. Pre Crdge. glo L po eor of orop ple d ell.. Moo. Le S.G. 98. Teor of el of orop od.. Moo. glo L.. 8. po Meod for olg ree-deol odr le prole of d d of T Bode. Proeedg of e UTM Spo o e Relo of Sell Ple Be d D Model. Sprger -. fe. K Meod of perro. Mr. Moo. glo L... O oe l of ree-deol prole of el eor for ple. Proeedg of. Rde Mel Ie of Georg. Vol. -.
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