Lecture 1: Fundamental concepts in Time Series Analysis (part 2)
|
|
- Roger Leon Taylor
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Lecture 1: Fundamental concepts in Time Series Analysis (part 2) Florian Pelgrin University of Lausanne, École des HEC Department of mathematics (IMEA-Nice) Sept Jan Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
2 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility 6. Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Consider again a situation where the value of a time series at time t, X t, is a linear function of a constant term, the last p values of X t, the contemporaneous and last q values of a white noise process, denoted by ɛ t : X t = µ + This process rewrites : p φ k X t k + k=1 q θ j ɛ t j. j=0 Φ(L)X }{{} t = µ + Θ(L)ɛ }{{} t Autoregressive part Moving average part with Φ(L) = 1 φ 1 L φ 2 L 2 φ p L p and Θ(L) = 1 + θ 1 L + + θ q L q. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
3 Which conditions? Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Stationarity conditions regard the autoregressive part of the previous (linear) time series model (ARMA(p,q) model). Stability conditions also regard the autoregressive part of the previous (linear) time series model (ARMA(p,q) model). Stability conditions are generally required to avoid explosive solutions of the stochastic difference equation : Φ(L)X t = µ + Θ(L)ɛ t. Invertibility conditions regard the moving average part Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
4 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Implications of the stability (stationarity) conditions If stability conditions hold, stationarity conditions are satisfied (the converse is not true) and (X t ) is weakly stationary. If the stochastic process (X t ) is stable (and thus weakly stationary), then (X t ) has an infinite moving average representation (MA( ) representation) : X t = Φ 1 (L) (µ + Θ(L)ɛ t ) = Φ 1 (1)µ + C(L)ɛ t µ = 1 p k=1 φ + c i ɛ t i k where the coefficients c i satisfy c i <. i=0 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40 i=0
5 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility This representation shows the impact of past shocks, ɛ t i, on the current value of X t : dx t dɛ t i = c i This is an application of the Wold s decomposition Omitting the constant term, X t and ɛ t are linked by a linear filter in which C(L) = Φ 1 (L)Θ(L) is called the transfer function. The coefficients (c i ) are also referred to as the impulse response function coefficients. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
6 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility If (X t ) t Z is weakly stationary but not stable, then (X t ) has the following representation : X t = Φ 1 (L) (µ + Θ(L)ɛ t ) = Φ 1 (1)µ + C(L)ɛ t = µ 1 p k=1 φ + k c i ɛ t i. where (c j ) is sequence of constants with : i= c i < i= The latter condition insures that (X t ) t Z is weakly stationary. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
7 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Determination of the stability and stationarity conditions Definition Consider the stochastic process defined by : Φ(L)X t = µ + Θ(L)ɛ t with Φ(L) = 1 φ 1 L φ 2 L 2 φ p L p, Θ(L) = 1 + θ 1 L + + θ q L q, and (ɛ t ) is a white noise process. This process is called stable if the modulus of all the roots, λ i, i = 1,, p, of the (reverse) characteristic equation : Φ(λ) = 0 1 φ 1 λ φ 2 λ 2 φ p λ p = 0 are greater than one, λ i > 1 for all i = 1,, p. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
8 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Implications of the stability (stationarity) conditions Invertibility is the counterpart to stationarity for the moving average part of the process. If the stochastic process (X t ) is invertible, then (X t ) has an infinite autoregressive representation (AR( ) representation) : Θ 1 (L)Φ(L)X t = Θ 1 (L)µ + ɛ t or X t = µ 1 q k=1 θ k + d i X t i + ɛ t i=1 where the coefficients d i satisfy d i <. i=0 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
9 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility The AR( ) representation shows the dependence of the current value X t on the past values of X t i. The coefficients are referred as the d-weights of an ARMA model. If the stochastic process (X t ) is not invertible, it may exist a representation of the following form (omitting the constant term) as long as the magnitude of any (characteristic) root of Θ(λ) does not equal unity : X t = i 0 d i X t i + ɛ t Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
10 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Determination of the invertibility conditions Definition Consider the stochastic process defined by : Φ(L)X t = µ + Θ(L)ɛ t with Φ(L) = 1 φ 1 L φ 2 L 2 φ p L p, Θ(L) = 1 + θ 1 L + + θ q L q, and (ɛ t ) is a white noise process. This process is called invertible if the modulus of all the roots, λ i, i = 1,, q, of the (reverse) characteristic equation : Θ(λ) = θ 1 λ + θ 2 λ θ q λ q = 0 are greater than one, λ i > 1 for all i = 1,, q. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
11 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Three equivalent representations Definition A stable (and thus weakly stationary), invertible stochastic process, Φ(L)X t = µ + Θ(L)ɛ t has two other equivalent representations forms : 1 An infinite moving average representation : X t = µ 1 p k=1 φ k + c i ɛ t i i=0 2 An infinite autoregressive representation : X t = µ 1 q k=1 θ k + d i X t i + ɛ t i=1 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
12 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Each of these representations can shed a light on the model from a different perspective. For instance, the stationarity properties, the estimation of parameters, and the computing of forecasts can use different representations forms (see further). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
13 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Examples 1. An autoregressive process of order 1 : where ɛ t WN(0, σ 2 ɛ ) for all t. (1 ρl)x t = ɛ t The stability and (weak) stationarity of (X t ) depends on the (reverse) characteristic root of Φ(λ) = 1 ρλ : The stability condition writes : Φ(λ) = 0 λ = 1 ρ. λ > 1 ρ < 1. The stationarity condition writes : λ 1 ρ 1. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
14 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility Therefore, 1 If ρ < 1, then (X t ) is stable and weakly stationary : (1 ρl) 1 = ρ k L k and X t = ρ k ɛ t k k=0 k=0 2 If ρ > 1, then a non-causal stationary solution (X t ) exists : (1 ρl) 1 = ρ k F k and X t = ρ k ɛ t+k k=1 k=1 3 If ρ = 1, then (X t ) is not stable and stationary : (1 ρl) cannot be inverted! Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
15 Stationarity, stability, and invertibility 2. A moving average process of order 1 : X t = ɛ t θɛ t 1 where ɛ t WN(0, σ 2 ɛ ) for all t. (X t ) is weakly stationary irrespective of the characteristic root of Θ(λ) = 1 θλ (why?). The invertibility of (X t ) depends on the (reverse) characteristic root of Θ(λ) = 1 θλ : Θ(λ) = 0 λ = 1 θ. The invertibility condition writes : λ > 1 θ < 1. and X t = θ k X t k + ɛ t. k=1 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
16 7. Identification tools Identification tools Need some tools to characterize the main properties of a time series. Among others : Autocovariance function Autocorrelation function (ACF) Sample autocorrelation function (SACF) Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) Sample partial autocorrelation function (SPACF) Spectral density, etc. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
17 Keep in mind that one seeks to identify, estimate and forecast the following ARMA(p,q) model : X t = µ + p φ i X t i + i=1 q θ k ɛ t k k=0 where θ 0 = 0, ɛ t WN(0, σ 2 ɛ ), p and q are unknown orders to identify, (µ, φ 1,, φ p, θ 1,, θ q, σ 2 ɛ ) are unknown parameters to estimate (that depends on p and q). The ACF and PACF functions are used to identify the appropriate time series model : 1 The orders p and q can be identified by using the (sample) autocorrelation and (sample) partial autocorrelation function. 2 The corresponding parameters can be then estimated using several statistical procedures. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
18 Autocovariances The autocovariance function Definition The autocovariance function of a stationary stochastic process (X t ) t Z is defined to be : γ : Z R h γ X (h) = Cov(X t, X t h ). with : γ X (h) = γ X ( h). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
19 Autocovariances Definition An estimator of γ X (h) (for h < T ) is defined to be : or ˆγ X (h) = 1 T T h (X t X T )(X t+h X T ) t=1 ˆγ X (h) = 1 T h T t=h+1 (X t X T )(X t h X T ). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
20 Autocovariances Proposition If (X t ) t Z is a second order stationary process with : X t = m + j Z a j ɛ t j where the ɛ t s are i.i.d. with mean zero and variance σɛ, 2 a j <, and E(ɛ 4 t ) <, then (i) ˆγ X (h) is an almost surely convergent and asymptotically unbiased estimator, (ii) the asymptotic disbribution is given by : T ˆγ X (0) γ X (0) ˆγ X (1) γ X (1). ˆγ X (h) γ X (h) where Ω γ = [Ω j,k ] 0 j,k h is such that : Ω j,k = + l N (0, Ω γ ) l= Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40 j Z γ X (l) (γ X (l j + k) + γ X (l j k)).
21 Autocorrelations The autocorrelation function Definition The autocorrelation function of a stationary stochastic process (X t ) t Z is defined to be : h Z. ρ X (h) = γ X (h) γ X (0) = Corr(X t, X t h ) The autocorrelation function is obtained after re-scaling the autocovariance function by the variance γ X (0) = V(X t ). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
22 Autocorrelations Definition The autocorrelation function of a (stationary) stochastic process (X t ) satisfies the following properties : 1 ρ X ( h) = ρ X (h) h 2 ρ X (0) = 1 3 The range of ρ X is [ 1; 1]. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
23 Autocorrelations The autocorrelation (respectively, autocovariance) function of a moving average process of order q, MA(q), is always zero for orders higher than q ( h > q) : MA(q) process has no memory beyond q periods. The autocorrelation (respectively, autocovariance) function of a stationary AR(p) process exhibits exponential decay towards zero (but does not vanish for lags greater than p). The autocorrelation (respectively, autocovariance) function of a stationary ARMA(p, q) process exhibits exponential decay towards zero : it does not cut off but gradually dies out as h increases. The autocorrelation function of a nonstationary process decreases very slowly even at very high lags, long after the autocorrelations from stationary processes have declined to (almost) zero. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
24 Autocorrelations The sample autocorrelation function Definition Given a sample of T observations, x 1,, x T, the sample autocorrelation function, denoted by (ˆρ X (h)), is computed by : ˆρ X (h) = T t=h+1 (x t ˆµ)(x t h ˆµ) T (x t ˆµ) 2 t=1 where ˆµ is the sample mean : ˆµ = 1 T T x t. t=1 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
25 Autocorrelations Proposition If (X t ) t Z is a second order stationary process with : X t = m + j Z a j ɛ t j where the ɛ t s are i.i.d. with mean zero and variance σɛ 2, a j <, and E(ɛ 4 t ) <, then T ˆρ X (1) ρ X (1). ˆρ X (h) ρ X (h) l N (0, Ω ρ ). j Z Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
26 Partial autocorrelation The partial autocorrelation function The partial autocorrelation function is another tool for identifying the properties of an ARMA process. It is particularly useful to identify pure autoregressive process (AR(p)). A partial correlation coefficient measures the correlation between two random variables at different lags after adjusting for the correlation this pair may have with the intervening lags : the PACF thus represents the sequence of conditional correlations. A correlation coefficient between two random variables at different lags does not adjust for the influence of the intervening lags : the ACF thus represents the sequence of unconditional correlations. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
27 Partial autocorrelation Definition The partial autocorrelation function of a stationary stochastic process (X t ) t Z is defined to be : h > 0. a X (h) = Corr(X t, X t h X t 1,, X t h+1 ) Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
28 Partial autocorrelation Definition The partial autocorrelation function of order h is defined to be : [ ] a X (h) = Corr X t, X t h ( Cov Xt, X ) t h = [ ( ) ( )] 1/2 V X t V X t h where X t = X t EL(X t X t 1,, X t h+1 ) X t h = X t h EL(X t h X t 1,, X t h+1 ). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
29 Partial autocorrelation Definition The partial autocorrelation function of a second order stationary stochastic process (X t ) t Z satisfies : a X (h) = R (h) R(h) where R(k) is the autocorrelation matrix of order h définie par : ρ X (0) ρ X (1) ρ X (h 1) ρ X (1) ρ X (0) ρ X (h 2) R(h) = ρ X (h 1) ρ X (h 2) ρ X (0) and R (h) is the matrix that is obtained after raplacing the last column of R(h) by ρ = (ρ X (1),, ρ X (k)) t. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
30 Partial autocorrelation Definition The partial correlation function can be viewed as the sequence of the h-th autoregressive coefficients in a h-th order autoregression. Let a hl denote the l-th autoregressive coefficient of an AR(h) process : Then for h = 1, 2, X t = a h1 X t 1 + a h2 X t a hh X t h + ɛ t. a X (h) = a hh Remark : The theoretical partial autocorrelation function of an AR(p) model will be different from zero for the first p terms and exactly zero for higher order terms (why?). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
31 Partial autocorrelation The sample partial autocorrelation function The sample partial autocorrelation function can be obtained by different methods : 1 Find the ordinary least squares (or maximum likelihood) estimates of a hh 2 Use the recursive equations of the autocorrelation function (Yule-Walker equations) after replacing the autocorrelation coefficients by their estimates (see further). 3 Etc. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
32 Partial autocorrelation Proposition If (X t ) t Z is a second order stationary process with : X t = m + j Z a j ɛ t j where the ɛ t s are i.i.d. with mean zero and variance σɛ 2, a j <, and E(ɛ 4 t ) <, then T â X (1) r X (1). â X (h) r X (h) l N (0, Ω r ). j Z Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
33 Spectral analysis Identification tools Spectral analysis Definition (Fourier transform of the autocovariance function) Let (X t ) be a real-valued stationary process (with absolutely summable autocovariance sequence). The Fourier transform of the autocovariance function (γ X (h)) exists and is given by ; ω [ π; π]. f X (ω) = 1 h=+ γ X (h)exp( iωh) 2π h= = 1 h=+ γ X (h)cos(ωh) 2π h= = 1 2π γ X (0) + 1 h=+ γ X (h)cos(ωh) π h=1 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
34 Spectral analysis Properties : 1. The spectral density satsifies : f X (ω) is continuous, i.e. f X (ω) = f X (ω), f X (ω) is real-valued ; f X (ω) is a nonnegative function (since the autocovariance function is positive semidefinite). 2. f X (ω) = f X (ω + 2π) : f X is a periodic with period 2π. 3. f X (ω) = f X ( ω) ω : f X is a symmetric even function. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
35 Spectral analysis Properties (cont d) : 4. The variance satisfies : V(X t ) = γ X (0) = π π f X (ω)dω The spectrum f X (ω) may be interpreted as the decomposition of the variance of a process. The term f X (ω)dω is the contribution to the variance attributable to the component of the process with frequencies in the interval (ω, ω + dω). A pick (in the spectrum) indicates an important contribution to the variance. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
36 Spectral analysis Deriving the spectral density function Definition (Autocovariance generating function) For a given sequence of autocovariances γ X (h), h = 0, ±1, ±2, cdots, the autocovariance generating function is defined to be : γ X (L) = where L is the lag operator. + h= γ X (h)l h Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
37 Spectral analysis Proposition Let (X t ) t Z denote a second order stationary process with : X t = m + j Z θ j ɛ t j where the ɛ t s are i.i.d. with mean zero and variance σ 2 ɛ. The autocovariance generating function is defined to be : γ X (L) = σ 2 ɛ Θ(L)Θ(L 1 ). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
38 Spectral analysis Definition Let γ X (L) and f X (ω) denote respectively the autocovariance generating function and the spectrum : γ X (L) = + f X (ω) = 1 2π h= + γ X (h)l h h= exp( iωh) ω [ π; π]. Then f X (ω) = 1 2π γ X (exp( iω)). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
39 Spectral analysis Application : Consider a general stationary ARMA(p,q) model Φ p (L)X t = µ + Θ q (L)ɛ t with Φ p (L) = 1 p j=1 φ jl j and Θ q (L) = 1 + q j=1 θ jl j sharing no common factor and having their roots outside the unit circle. Then and γ X (L) = σ 2 ɛ Θ q (L)Θ q (L 1 ) Φ q (L)Φ q (L 1 ) f X (ω) = 1 2π γ X (exp( iω)) = σ2 ɛ Θ q (exp( iω))θ q (exp(iω)) 2π Φ q (exp( iω))φ q (exp(iω)) = σ2 ɛ Θ q (exp( iω)) 2 2π Φ p (exp( iω)). Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
40 Summary Summary Strong and weak stationarity Stationarity/nonstationarity White noise, Trend stationary processes, Difference stationary processes (random walk) Lag operator and writing of time series models AR( ) and MA( ) representation Autocovariance, (sample) autocorrelation, and (sample) partial autocorrelation function Spectral density. Class of ARMA(p,q) processes. Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept Jan / 40
Lecture 2: ARMA(p,q) models (part 2)
Lecture 2: ARMA(p,q) models (part 2) Florian Pelgrin University of Lausanne, École des HEC Department of mathematics (IMEA-Nice) Sept. 2011 - Jan. 2012 Florian Pelgrin (HEC) Univariate time series Sept.
More information3. ARMA Modeling. Now: Important class of stationary processes
3. ARMA Modeling Now: Important class of stationary processes Definition 3.1: (ARMA(p, q) process) Let {ɛ t } t Z WN(0, σ 2 ) be a white noise process. The process {X t } t Z is called AutoRegressive-Moving-Average
More informationECON/FIN 250: Forecasting in Finance and Economics: Section 6: Standard Univariate Models
ECON/FIN 250: Forecasting in Finance and Economics: Section 6: Standard Univariate Models Patrick Herb Brandeis University Spring 2016 Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Standard Univariate Models ECON/FIN
More informationLecture 3: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models and their Practical Applications
Lecture 3: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models and their Practical Applications Prof. Massimo Guidolin 20192 Financial Econometrics Winter/Spring 2018 Overview Moving average processes Autoregressive
More informationAutoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models and their Practical Applications
Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models and their Practical Applications Massimo Guidolin February 2018 1 Essential Concepts in Time Series Analysis 1.1 Time Series and Their Properties Time series:
More informationUniversity of Oxford. Statistical Methods Autocorrelation. Identification and Estimation
University of Oxford Statistical Methods Autocorrelation Identification and Estimation Dr. Órlaith Burke Michaelmas Term, 2011 Department of Statistics, 1 South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3TG Contents 1 Model
More informationReview Session: Econometrics - CLEFIN (20192)
Review Session: Econometrics - CLEFIN (20192) Part II: Univariate time series analysis Daniele Bianchi March 20, 2013 Fundamentals Stationarity A time series is a sequence of random variables x t, t =
More informationEconometría 2: Análisis de series de Tiempo
Econometría 2: Análisis de series de Tiempo Karoll GOMEZ kgomezp@unal.edu.co http://karollgomez.wordpress.com Segundo semestre 2016 III. Stationary models 1 Purely random process 2 Random walk (non-stationary)
More informationCovariance Stationary Time Series. Example: Independent White Noise (IWN(0,σ 2 )) Y t = ε t, ε t iid N(0,σ 2 )
Covariance Stationary Time Series Stochastic Process: sequence of rv s ordered by time {Y t } {...,Y 1,Y 0,Y 1,...} Defn: {Y t } is covariance stationary if E[Y t ]μ for all t cov(y t,y t j )E[(Y t μ)(y
More information7. MULTIVARATE STATIONARY PROCESSES
7. MULTIVARATE STATIONARY PROCESSES 1 1 Some Preliminary Definitions and Concepts Random Vector: A vector X = (X 1,..., X n ) whose components are scalar-valued random variables on the same probability
More informationTime Series Analysis. James D. Hamilton PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
Time Series Analysis James D. Hamilton PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY & Contents PREFACE xiii 1 1.1. 1.2. Difference Equations First-Order Difference Equations 1 /?th-order Difference
More informationIntroduction to ARMA and GARCH processes
Introduction to ARMA and GARCH processes Fulvio Corsi SNS Pisa 3 March 2010 Fulvio Corsi Introduction to ARMA () and GARCH processes SNS Pisa 3 March 2010 1 / 24 Stationarity Strict stationarity: (X 1,
More informationFE570 Financial Markets and Trading. Stevens Institute of Technology
FE570 Financial Markets and Trading Lecture 5. Linear Time Series Analysis and Its Applications (Ref. Joel Hasbrouck - Empirical Market Microstructure ) Steve Yang Stevens Institute of Technology 9/25/2012
More informationUnivariate Time Series Analysis; ARIMA Models
Econometrics 2 Fall 24 Univariate Time Series Analysis; ARIMA Models Heino Bohn Nielsen of4 Outline of the Lecture () Introduction to univariate time series analysis. (2) Stationarity. (3) Characterizing
More informationTime Series Analysis. James D. Hamilton PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
Time Series Analysis James D. Hamilton PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY PREFACE xiii 1 Difference Equations 1.1. First-Order Difference Equations 1 1.2. pth-order Difference Equations 7
More information1 Linear Difference Equations
ARMA Handout Jialin Yu 1 Linear Difference Equations First order systems Let {ε t } t=1 denote an input sequence and {y t} t=1 sequence generated by denote an output y t = φy t 1 + ε t t = 1, 2,... with
More informationParametric Signal Modeling and Linear Prediction Theory 1. Discrete-time Stochastic Processes (cont d)
Parametric Signal Modeling and Linear Prediction Theory 1. Discrete-time Stochastic Processes (cont d) Electrical & Computer Engineering North Carolina State University Acknowledgment: ECE792-41 slides
More informationEcon 623 Econometrics II Topic 2: Stationary Time Series
1 Introduction Econ 623 Econometrics II Topic 2: Stationary Time Series In the regression model we can model the error term as an autoregression AR(1) process. That is, we can use the past value of the
More information5: MULTIVARATE STATIONARY PROCESSES
5: MULTIVARATE STATIONARY PROCESSES 1 1 Some Preliminary Definitions and Concepts Random Vector: A vector X = (X 1,..., X n ) whose components are scalarvalued random variables on the same probability
More informationSome Time-Series Models
Some Time-Series Models Outline 1. Stochastic processes and their properties 2. Stationary processes 3. Some properties of the autocorrelation function 4. Some useful models Purely random processes, random
More information3 Theory of stationary random processes
3 Theory of stationary random processes 3.1 Linear filters and the General linear process A filter is a transformation of one random sequence {U t } into another, {Y t }. A linear filter is a transformation
More informationLecture 4a: ARMA Model
Lecture 4a: ARMA Model 1 2 Big Picture Most often our goal is to find a statistical model to describe real time series (estimation), and then predict the future (forecasting) One particularly popular model
More informationEconometrics II Heij et al. Chapter 7.1
Chapter 7.1 p. 1/2 Econometrics II Heij et al. Chapter 7.1 Linear Time Series Models for Stationary data Marius Ooms Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam Chapter 7.1 p. 2/2 Program Introduction Modelling philosophy
More information18.S096 Problem Set 4 Fall 2013 Time Series Due Date: 10/15/2013
18.S096 Problem Set 4 Fall 2013 Time Series Due Date: 10/15/2013 1. Covariance Stationary AR(2) Processes Suppose the discrete-time stochastic process {X t } follows a secondorder auto-regressive process
More informationChapter 4: Models for Stationary Time Series
Chapter 4: Models for Stationary Time Series Now we will introduce some useful parametric models for time series that are stationary processes. We begin by defining the General Linear Process. Let {Y t
More informationIDENTIFICATION OF ARMA MODELS
IDENTIFICATION OF ARMA MODELS A stationary stochastic process can be characterised, equivalently, by its autocovariance function or its partial autocovariance function. It can also be characterised by
More informationTime Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis Christopher Ting http://mysmu.edu.sg/faculty/christophert/ christopherting@smu.edu.sg Quantitative Finance Singapore Management University March 3, 2017 Christopher Ting Week 9 March
More informationClass 1: Stationary Time Series Analysis
Class 1: Stationary Time Series Analysis Macroeconometrics - Fall 2009 Jacek Suda, BdF and PSE February 28, 2011 Outline Outline: 1 Covariance-Stationary Processes 2 Wold Decomposition Theorem 3 ARMA Models
More informationStationary Stochastic Time Series Models
Stationary Stochastic Time Series Models When modeling time series it is useful to regard an observed time series, (x 1,x,..., x n ), as the realisation of a stochastic process. In general a stochastic
More informationMidterm Suggested Solutions
CUHK Dept. of Economics Spring 2011 ECON 4120 Sung Y. Park Midterm Suggested Solutions Q1 (a) In time series, autocorrelation measures the correlation between y t and its lag y t τ. It is defined as. ρ(τ)
More informationModule 3. Descriptive Time Series Statistics and Introduction to Time Series Models
Module 3 Descriptive Time Series Statistics and Introduction to Time Series Models Class notes for Statistics 451: Applied Time Series Iowa State University Copyright 2015 W Q Meeker November 11, 2015
More informationApplied time-series analysis
Robert M. Kunst robert.kunst@univie.ac.at University of Vienna and Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna October 18, 2011 Outline Introduction and overview Econometric Time-Series Analysis In principle,
More informationE 4101/5101 Lecture 6: Spectral analysis
E 4101/5101 Lecture 6: Spectral analysis Ragnar Nymoen 3 March 2011 References to this lecture Hamilton Ch 6 Lecture note (on web page) For stationary variables/processes there is a close correspondence
More informationLecture 2: Univariate Time Series
Lecture 2: Univariate Time Series Analysis: Conditional and Unconditional Densities, Stationarity, ARMA Processes Prof. Massimo Guidolin 20192 Financial Econometrics Spring/Winter 2017 Overview Motivation:
More informationPart III Example Sheet 1 - Solutions YC/Lent 2015 Comments and corrections should be ed to
TIME SERIES Part III Example Sheet 1 - Solutions YC/Lent 2015 Comments and corrections should be emailed to Y.Chen@statslab.cam.ac.uk. 1. Let {X t } be a weakly stationary process with mean zero and let
More informationSTAD57 Time Series Analysis. Lecture 8
STAD57 Time Series Analysis Lecture 8 1 ARMA Model Will be using ARMA models to describe times series dynamics: ( B) X ( B) W X X X W W W t 1 t1 p t p t 1 t1 q tq Model must be causal (i.e. stationary)
More informationLecture 3: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models and their Practical Applications
Lecture 3: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models and their Practical Applications Prof. Massimo Guidolin 20192 Financial Econometrics Winter/Spring 2018 Overview Moving average processes Autoregressive
More informationStat 5100 Handout #12.e Notes: ARIMA Models (Unit 7) Key here: after stationary, identify dependence structure (and use for forecasting)
Stat 5100 Handout #12.e Notes: ARIMA Models (Unit 7) Key here: after stationary, identify dependence structure (and use for forecasting) (overshort example) White noise H 0 : Let Z t be the stationary
More informationLesson 9: Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) models
Lesson 9: Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) models Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Scienze dell Informazione e Matematica Università dell Aquila, umberto.triacca@ec.univaq.it Introduction We have seen
More informationIntroduction to Stochastic processes
Università di Pavia Introduction to Stochastic processes Eduardo Rossi Stochastic Process Stochastic Process: A stochastic process is an ordered sequence of random variables defined on a probability space
More informationEmpirical Market Microstructure Analysis (EMMA)
Empirical Market Microstructure Analysis (EMMA) Lecture 3: Statistical Building Blocks and Econometric Basics Prof. Dr. Michael Stein michael.stein@vwl.uni-freiburg.de Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg
More informationTime Series: Theory and Methods
Peter J. Brockwell Richard A. Davis Time Series: Theory and Methods Second Edition With 124 Illustrations Springer Contents Preface to the Second Edition Preface to the First Edition vn ix CHAPTER 1 Stationary
More informationTrend-Cycle Decompositions
Trend-Cycle Decompositions Eric Zivot April 22, 2005 1 Introduction A convenient way of representing an economic time series y t is through the so-called trend-cycle decomposition y t = TD t + Z t (1)
More informationSTAT 443 Final Exam Review. 1 Basic Definitions. 2 Statistical Tests. L A TEXer: W. Kong
STAT 443 Final Exam Review L A TEXer: W Kong 1 Basic Definitions Definition 11 The time series {X t } with E[X 2 t ] < is said to be weakly stationary if: 1 µ X (t) = E[X t ] is independent of t 2 γ X
More informationTime Series Models and Inference. James L. Powell Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley
Time Series Models and Inference James L. Powell Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Overview In contrast to the classical linear regression model, in which the components of the
More information{ } Stochastic processes. Models for time series. Specification of a process. Specification of a process. , X t3. ,...X tn }
Stochastic processes Time series are an example of a stochastic or random process Models for time series A stochastic process is 'a statistical phenomenon that evolves in time according to probabilistic
More informationChapter 6: Model Specification for Time Series
Chapter 6: Model Specification for Time Series The ARIMA(p, d, q) class of models as a broad class can describe many real time series. Model specification for ARIMA(p, d, q) models involves 1. Choosing
More informationTime Series 2. Robert Almgren. Sept. 21, 2009
Time Series 2 Robert Almgren Sept. 21, 2009 This week we will talk about linear time series models: AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, etc. First we will talk about theory and after we will talk about fitting the models
More informationECON 616: Lecture 1: Time Series Basics
ECON 616: Lecture 1: Time Series Basics ED HERBST August 30, 2017 References Overview: Chapters 1-3 from Hamilton (1994). Technical Details: Chapters 2-3 from Brockwell and Davis (1987). Intuition: Chapters
More informationProblem Set 1 Solution Sketches Time Series Analysis Spring 2010
Problem Set 1 Solution Sketches Time Series Analysis Spring 2010 1. Construct a martingale difference process that is not weakly stationary. Simplest e.g.: Let Y t be a sequence of independent, non-identically
More information2. An Introduction to Moving Average Models and ARMA Models
. An Introduction to Moving Average Models and ARMA Models.1 White Noise. The MA(1) model.3 The MA(q) model..4 Estimation and forecasting of MA models..5 ARMA(p,q) models. The Moving Average (MA) models
More informationat least 50 and preferably 100 observations should be available to build a proper model
III Box-Jenkins Methods 1. Pros and Cons of ARIMA Forecasting a) need for data at least 50 and preferably 100 observations should be available to build a proper model used most frequently for hourly or
More informationLECTURE 10 LINEAR PROCESSES II: SPECTRAL DENSITY, LAG OPERATOR, ARMA. In this lecture, we continue to discuss covariance stationary processes.
MAY, 0 LECTURE 0 LINEAR PROCESSES II: SPECTRAL DENSITY, LAG OPERATOR, ARMA In this lecture, we continue to discuss covariance stationary processes. Spectral density Gourieroux and Monfort 990), Ch. 5;
More informationA time series is called strictly stationary if the joint distribution of every collection (Y t
5 Time series A time series is a set of observations recorded over time. You can think for example at the GDP of a country over the years (or quarters) or the hourly measurements of temperature over a
More informationTime Series Analysis -- An Introduction -- AMS 586
Time Series Analysis -- An Introduction -- AMS 586 1 Objectives of time series analysis Data description Data interpretation Modeling Control Prediction & Forecasting 2 Time-Series Data Numerical data
More informationAdvanced Econometrics
Advanced Econometrics Marco Sunder Nov 04 2010 Marco Sunder Advanced Econometrics 1/ 25 Contents 1 2 3 Marco Sunder Advanced Econometrics 2/ 25 Music Marco Sunder Advanced Econometrics 3/ 25 Music Marco
More informationCh 4. Models For Stationary Time Series. Time Series Analysis
This chapter discusses the basic concept of a broad class of stationary parametric time series models the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. Let {Y t } denote the observed time series, and {e
More informationCh. 15 Forecasting. 1.1 Forecasts Based on Conditional Expectations
Ch 15 Forecasting Having considered in Chapter 14 some of the properties of ARMA models, we now show how they may be used to forecast future values of an observed time series For the present we proceed
More informationForecasting with ARMA
Forecasting with ARMA Eduardo Rossi University of Pavia October 2013 Rossi Forecasting Financial Econometrics - 2013 1 / 32 Mean Squared Error Linear Projection Forecast of Y t+1 based on a set of variables
More informationLesson 13: Box-Jenkins Modeling Strategy for building ARMA models
Lesson 13: Box-Jenkins Modeling Strategy for building ARMA models Facoltà di Economia Università dell Aquila umberto.triacca@gmail.com Introduction In this lesson we present a method to construct an ARMA(p,
More informationProblem Set 2 Solution Sketches Time Series Analysis Spring 2010
Problem Set 2 Solution Sketches Time Series Analysis Spring 2010 Forecasting 1. Let X and Y be two random variables such that E(X 2 ) < and E(Y 2 )
More informationCovariances of ARMA Processes
Statistics 910, #10 1 Overview Covariances of ARMA Processes 1. Review ARMA models: causality and invertibility 2. AR covariance functions 3. MA and ARMA covariance functions 4. Partial autocorrelation
More informationUnivariate Nonstationary Time Series 1
Univariate Nonstationary Time Series 1 Sebastian Fossati University of Alberta 1 These slides are based on Eric Zivot s time series notes available at: http://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot Introduction
More informationEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN UNIVERSITY ECON 604, FALL 2007 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MEHMET BALCILAR ARIMA MODELS: IDENTIFICATION
ARIMA MODELS: IDENTIFICATION A. Autocorrelations and Partial Autocorrelations 1. Summary of What We Know So Far: a) Series y t is to be modeled by Box-Jenkins methods. The first step was to convert y t
More informationTime Series Analysis Fall 2008
MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 14.384 Time Series Analysis Fall 008 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms. Introduction 1 14.384 Time
More informationRoss Bettinger, Analytical Consultant, Seattle, WA
ABSTRACT DYNAMIC REGRESSION IN ARIMA MODELING Ross Bettinger, Analytical Consultant, Seattle, WA Box-Jenkins time series models that contain exogenous predictor variables are called dynamic regression
More information4. MA(2) +drift: y t = µ + ɛ t + θ 1 ɛ t 1 + θ 2 ɛ t 2. Mean: where θ(l) = 1 + θ 1 L + θ 2 L 2. Therefore,
61 4. MA(2) +drift: y t = µ + ɛ t + θ 1 ɛ t 1 + θ 2 ɛ t 2 Mean: y t = µ + θ(l)ɛ t, where θ(l) = 1 + θ 1 L + θ 2 L 2. Therefore, E(y t ) = µ + θ(l)e(ɛ t ) = µ 62 Example: MA(q) Model: y t = ɛ t + θ 1 ɛ
More informationSTAT Financial Time Series
STAT 6104 - Financial Time Series Chapter 4 - Estimation in the time Domain Chun Yip Yau (CUHK) STAT 6104:Financial Time Series 1 / 46 Agenda 1 Introduction 2 Moment Estimates 3 Autoregressive Models (AR
More informationAR, MA and ARMA models
AR, MA and AR by Hedibert Lopes P Based on Tsay s Analysis of Financial Time Series (3rd edition) P 1 Stationarity 2 3 4 5 6 7 P 8 9 10 11 Outline P Linear Time Series Analysis and Its Applications For
More informationTime Series Solutions HT 2009
Time Series Solutions HT 2009 1. Let {X t } be the ARMA(1, 1) process, X t φx t 1 = ɛ t + θɛ t 1, {ɛ t } WN(0, σ 2 ), where φ < 1 and θ < 1. Show that the autocorrelation function of {X t } is given by
More informationTime Series Examples Sheet
Lent Term 2001 Richard Weber Time Series Examples Sheet This is the examples sheet for the M. Phil. course in Time Series. A copy can be found at: http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~rrw1/timeseries/ Throughout,
More informationLecture on ARMA model
Lecture on ARMA model Robert M. de Jong Ohio State University Columbus, OH 43210 USA Chien-Ho Wang National Taipei University Taipei City, 104 Taiwan ROC October 19, 2006 (Very Preliminary edition, Comment
More informationLecture 1: Stationary Time Series Analysis
Syllabus Stationarity ARMA AR MA Model Selection Estimation Lecture 1: Stationary Time Series Analysis 222061-1617: Time Series Econometrics Spring 2018 Jacek Suda Syllabus Stationarity ARMA AR MA Model
More informationTIME SERIES AND FORECASTING. Luca Gambetti UAB, Barcelona GSE Master in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets
TIME SERIES AND FORECASTING Luca Gambetti UAB, Barcelona GSE 2014-2015 Master in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets 1 Contacts Prof.: Luca Gambetti Office: B3-1130 Edifici B Office hours: email:
More informationCh. 14 Stationary ARMA Process
Ch. 14 Stationary ARMA Process A general linear stochastic model is described that suppose a time series to be generated by a linear aggregation of random shock. For practical representation it is desirable
More informationChapter 3 - Temporal processes
STK4150 - Intro 1 Chapter 3 - Temporal processes Odd Kolbjørnsen and Geir Storvik January 23 2017 STK4150 - Intro 2 Temporal processes Data collected over time Past, present, future, change Temporal aspect
More informationIntroduction to Signal Processing
to Signal Processing Davide Bacciu Dipartimento di Informatica Università di Pisa bacciu@di.unipi.it Intelligent Systems for Pattern Recognition Signals = Time series Definitions Motivations A sequence
More informationQuantitative Finance I
Quantitative Finance I Linear AR and MA Models (Lecture 4) Winter Semester 01/013 by Lukas Vacha * If viewed in.pdf format - for full functionality use Mathematica 7 (or higher) notebook (.nb) version
More informationTime Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis hm@imm.dtu.dk Informatics and Mathematical Modelling Technical University of Denmark DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby 1 Outline of the lecture Chapter 9 Multivariate time series 2 Transfer function
More informationBasic concepts and terminology: AR, MA and ARMA processes
ECON 5101 ADVANCED ECONOMETRICS TIME SERIES Lecture note no. 1 (EB) Erik Biørn, Department of Economics Version of February 1, 2011 Basic concepts and terminology: AR, MA and ARMA processes This lecture
More informationStochastic processes: basic notions
Stochastic processes: basic notions Jean-Marie Dufour McGill University First version: March 2002 Revised: September 2002, April 2004, September 2004, January 2005, July 2011, May 2016, July 2016 This
More informationWe will only present the general ideas on how to obtain. follow closely the AR(1) and AR(2) cases presented before.
ACF and PACF of an AR(p) We will only present the general ideas on how to obtain the ACF and PACF of an AR(p) model since the details follow closely the AR(1) and AR(2) cases presented before. Recall that
More informationNonlinear time series
Based on the book by Fan/Yao: Nonlinear Time Series Robert M. Kunst robert.kunst@univie.ac.at University of Vienna and Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna October 27, 2009 Outline Characteristics of
More informationWeek 5 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Characterizing Cycles
Week 5 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Characterizing Cycles Christopher Ting http://www.mysmu.edu/faculty/christophert/ Christopher Ting : christopherting@smu.edu.sg : 6828 0364 : LKCSB 5036
More informationγ 0 = Var(X i ) = Var(φ 1 X i 1 +W i ) = φ 2 1γ 0 +σ 2, which implies that we must have φ 1 < 1, and γ 0 = σ2 . 1 φ 2 1 We may also calculate for j 1
4.2 Autoregressive (AR) Moving average models are causal linear processes by definition. There is another class of models, based on a recursive formulation similar to the exponentially weighted moving
More informationA SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting
A SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting Frédéric Proïa Workshop EDF Institut Henri Poincaré - Paris 05 avril 2012 INRIA Bordeaux Sud-Ouest Institut de Mathématiques
More informationClassic Time Series Analysis
Classic Time Series Analysis Concepts and Definitions Let Y be a random number with PDF f Y t ~f,t Define t =E[Y t ] m(t) is known as the trend Define the autocovariance t, s =COV [Y t,y s ] =E[ Y t t
More informationThe Identification of ARIMA Models
APPENDIX 4 The Identification of ARIMA Models As we have established in a previous lecture, there is a one-to-one correspondence between the parameters of an ARMA(p, q) model, including the variance of
More informationApplied Time. Series Analysis. Wayne A. Woodward. Henry L. Gray. Alan C. Elliott. Dallas, Texas, USA
Applied Time Series Analysis Wayne A. Woodward Southern Methodist University Dallas, Texas, USA Henry L. Gray Southern Methodist University Dallas, Texas, USA Alan C. Elliott University of Texas Southwestern
More informationARIMA Models. Jamie Monogan. January 16, University of Georgia. Jamie Monogan (UGA) ARIMA Models January 16, / 27
ARIMA Models Jamie Monogan University of Georgia January 16, 2018 Jamie Monogan (UGA) ARIMA Models January 16, 2018 1 / 27 Objectives By the end of this meeting, participants should be able to: Argue why
More informationTime Series 3. Robert Almgren. Sept. 28, 2009
Time Series 3 Robert Almgren Sept. 28, 2009 Last time we discussed two main categories of linear models, and their combination. Here w t denotes a white noise: a stationary process with E w t ) = 0, E
More informationLecture note 2 considered the statistical analysis of regression models for time
DYNAMIC MODELS FOR STATIONARY TIME SERIES Econometrics 2 LectureNote4 Heino Bohn Nielsen March 2, 2007 Lecture note 2 considered the statistical analysis of regression models for time series data, and
More information6.3 Forecasting ARMA processes
6.3. FORECASTING ARMA PROCESSES 123 6.3 Forecasting ARMA processes The purpose of forecasting is to predict future values of a TS based on the data collected to the present. In this section we will discuss
More informationECON/FIN 250: Forecasting in Finance and Economics: Section 7: Unit Roots & Dickey-Fuller Tests
ECON/FIN 250: Forecasting in Finance and Economics: Section 7: Unit Roots & Dickey-Fuller Tests Patrick Herb Brandeis University Spring 2016 Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Unit Root Tests ECON/FIN
More informationRegularized Autoregressive Approximation in Time Series
Regularized Autoregressive Approximation in Time Series by Bei Chen A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfillment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Mathematics in
More informationDiscrete time processes
Discrete time processes Predictions are difficult. Especially about the future Mark Twain. Florian Herzog 2013 Modeling observed data When we model observed (realized) data, we encounter usually the following
More informationMultivariate Time Series: VAR(p) Processes and Models
Multivariate Time Series: VAR(p) Processes and Models A VAR(p) model, for p > 0 is X t = φ 0 + Φ 1 X t 1 + + Φ p X t p + A t, where X t, φ 0, and X t i are k-vectors, Φ 1,..., Φ p are k k matrices, with
More informationCh 6. Model Specification. Time Series Analysis
We start to build ARIMA(p,d,q) models. The subjects include: 1 how to determine p, d, q for a given series (Chapter 6); 2 how to estimate the parameters (φ s and θ s) of a specific ARIMA(p,d,q) model (Chapter
More informationTMA4285 December 2015 Time series models, solution.
Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Mathematical Sciences Page of 5 TMA4285 December 205 Time series models, solution. Problem a) (i) The slow decay of the ACF of z t suggest that
More informationMultiresolution Models of Time Series
Multiresolution Models of Time Series Andrea Tamoni (Bocconi University ) 2011 Tamoni Multiresolution Models of Time Series 1/ 16 General Framework Time-scale decomposition General Framework Begin with
More information