A lot of. face it these. does it affect kanban and
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1 A lot of manufacturers face it these days. But how does it affect kanban and average inventory?
2 >> REDUCED << DEMAND How it affects average inventory and what to do about it in 2009 B Y S T E V E C I M O R E L L I, C F P I M Introduction: "The Federal Reserve signaled Tuesday (January 6, 2009) that the recession could be longer and deeper than officials previously thought, with unemployment rising into next year and inflation slowing substantially... They now expect a deep contraction in the first half of the year and slow growth in the second half that won't make up for the losses." (The Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, January 7, 2009). With this grim outlook come significant opportunities for manufacturers, distributors and many other firms looking to fine-tune their inventory investments and supply chain strategies to meet the challenges ahead. To provide readers a recovery strategy, I am making available the cover story of the APICS Magazine January 2001 edition titled "Reduced Demand". The article was first published in response to the recession which began with the collapse of the "tech bubble", and is equally relevant in today's global economic crisis. (Author's note: The original article contained an error in the formula for Average Inventory. The corrected formula Avg. Inv. = SS + 1/2 Lot Size appears in the reprint to follow.) Steve Cimorelli, CFPIM, is an independent consultant and president of SCC Inventory Consulting, LLC (SCCInventory.com). He holds a BS in Engineering and has 30 years experience in aerospace, industrial equipment and commercial manufacturing, distribution and supply chain management. He can be reached at or by at steve.cimorelli@sccinventory.com.
3 COVER STORY > >R E D U C E D< < DE M AND B Y S T E V E C I M O R E L L I, C F P I M As business con d i ti ons con ti nue to slow and pred i cti ons for recovery ex tend furt h er into the futu re,n ow is the time to examine redu ced demand and its impact on materi a l rep l en i s h m ent sys tem s. More spec i f i c a lly, i t s a good time to examine kanban rep l en i s h m ent sys tem s, and the ef fects of va rious acti ons on avera ge inven tory. One stra tegy is the do nothing s tra tegy but this approach wi ll in fact increase inven tory. At a minimu m, a com p a ny mu s t h ave a process in place to keep kanban levels (order points) in sync with dem a n d. Th ere are also other steps a com p a ny can t a ke to improve its inven tory po s i ti on rel a tive to dem a n d. Let s start by revi ewing basic theory. The saw - tooth diagra m ( F i g u re 1) dep i cts the inven tory levels of a particular part nu m ber over time as inven tory is dep l eted and then rep l en i s h ed. D ef i n i ti on s : Figure 1 A t - a - G l a n c e The economy is forcing manufacturers to re-examine their strategies for dealing with reduced demand. One strategy is the do-nothing approach. If economic conditions continue on their present course, this approach will increase inventory. Negotiating shorter lead times and smaller lot sizes with suppliers can go a long way toward reducing inventory while maintaining an efficient kanban system. OP (ord er po i n t ) An establ i s h ed inven tory level, wh i ch wh en re ach ed signals the need to issue a rep l en i s h m ent order. SS (safety sto ck) A qu a n ti ty of i nven tory planned to be on hand to pro tect against flu ctu a ti ons in su pp ly or dem a n d. LT (lead ti m e ) The time requ i red to rep l enish inven tory. This is norm a lly measu red as the nu m ber of d ays from wh en the order point is bro ken to recei pt and put aw ay of t h e corre s ponding rep l en i s h m ent order. LS (lot size ) An establ i s h ed lot size, or order qu a n ti ty, repre s en ting an agreed - u pon amount of i nven tory in a rep l en i s h m ent order. D LT (demand throu gh lead ti m e ) The amount of i nventory ex pected to be used du ring the rep l en i s h m ent lead ti m e. J a n u a ry 2002 A P I C S The Performance A dva n t a ge 33
4 >> Without intending to, the company is now carrying 500 pieces more in safety stock (600 versus 100) than the original 10 percent needed to cover variability. Formu l a s : OP = DLT + SS D LT = Avera ge daily usage (piece s / d ay) x LT (days) = X piece s SS = percent of D LT. ( No te : Nu m erous met h odo l ogies ex i s t for determining safety stock level s : s t a ti s ti c a l,h eu ri s ti c, a n d o t h ers. For simplicity in the fo ll owing ex a m p l e s, we wi ll a s sume SS is set by com p a ny policy at 10 percent of dem a n d t h ro u gh lead ti m e. ) Avera ge inven tory = SS + 1 / 2 D LT Figure 2 Let s app ly the above formulas to a sample part nu m ber, XY Z, with the fo ll owing usage and rep l en i s h m ent para m eters : In i tial para m eters : D a i ly usage = 100 piece s LT = 10 days LS = 1200 piece s Kanban calculati on s : D LT = 100 pieces per day x 10 days = 1000 piece s SS = 10% x 1000 pieces = 100 piece s OP = DLT + SS = 1100 piece s Avera ge inven tory = SS + 1 / 2 LS = 100 pieces pieces : 2 = 700 piece s.( See Figure 2.) Figure 3 Figure 4 The do-nothing alter n a t i v e NOW L E T S E X A M I N E T H E i m p act of a 50 percent drop in demand with no acti on being taken to re s et kanban level s. We call this the do-nothing altern a tive. In this scen a ri o, D LT becom e s : D LT = 50 piece s / d ay x 10 days = 500 piece s Si n ce inven tory is now dep l eted at a slower ra te, the amount of i nven tory used du ring the rep l en i s h m ent lead time of 10 d ays is half what it had been. Th erefore more material wi ll be on hand wh en the rep l en i s h m ent order arrive s. App lying the formula OP = SS + DLT, and recognizing that OP is fixed and that DLT has ch a n ged, we re left with solvi n g the formula for the one remaining el em en t,s S : SS = OP DLT = 1100 pieces 500 pieces = 600 piece s In other word s, wi t h o ut intending to, the com p a ny is now c a rrying 500 pieces more in safety stock (600 versus 100) than the ori ginal 10 percent needed to cover va ri a bi l i ty. Th erefore avera ge inven tory wi ll also incre a s e : 34 A P I C S The Performance A dva n t a ge J a n u a ry 2002
5 Avera ge inven tory = SS + 1 / 2 LS = 600 pieces pieces = 1200 piece s These ef fects are shown gra ph i c a lly in Figure 3. The minimum solution SO W H AT S T H ES O LU T I O N? As a minimu m, the kanban l evel must be re s et to con s i der the new, l ower demand thro u gh l e ad ti m e,n ow at 500 piece s. Doing so, and app lying the po l i c y of SS at 10 percent of D LT, re sults in the fo ll owi n g : D LT = 50/day x 10 days = 500 piece s SS = 10% x 500 = 50 piece s Th erefore, OP = SS + DLT = 550 F i g u re 4 shows the order point back in line with dem a n d, and dra m a ti c a lly lower than the one re su l ting from the do - nothing approach. No ti ce, h owever, that avera ge inven tory is n ow well above the order poi n t, s om ething not seen in the i n i tial state. We ll ad d ress this later. It is worth noting that the above improvem ent app l i e s wh et h er the kanban sys tem in place is a simple fixed order poi n t, a two - bin sys tem, a sys tem em p l oying mu l tiple pull c a rd s, or any other va ri ety of k a n b a n. In the case of a fixed order poi n t, i den ti f ying a lower order point is stra i gh tforw a rd. In a two - bin sys tem, the size of e ach bin may need to be redu ced, or each may be fill ed on ly parti a lly with some type of m a x - f i ll level cl e a rly establ i s h ed. In a mu l ti - c a rd sys tem, rem oving one or more cards accomplishes the redu cti on. Next steps LOO K I N G AG A I N AT FI G U R E 4,i t s fairly evi dent that the lot size is high er than nece s s a ry, t hus con tri buting to high ert h a n - n ece s s a ry avera ge inven tory. An immed i a te next step would be to nego ti a te a redu ced lot size with the su pp l i er, t h ereby obtaining small er and more frequ ent del iveri e s. Cut ti n g the lot size in half, to 600, would sti ll en su re rep l en i s h m en t a bove the order poi n t, and cut avera ge inven tory from 650 to 350 (SS of 50 plus 1/ 2 LS of ). Fu rt h er redu cti ons in avera ge inven tory could be ach i eved by nego ti a ting a shorter LT with the su pp l i er. At an avera ge d a i ly usage of 50 piece s, e ach day taken out of LT would all ow the OP to be dropped by 50 piece s, and SS by 5. E ach of t h e s e s teps is con s i s tent with lean inven tory pri n c i p l e s. The examples we ve loo ked at cl e a rly dem on s tra te severa l t h i n gs.f i rs t, kanban levels must be revi ewed and ad ju s ted reg u- l a rly to en su re they are kept in sync with dem a n d. Secon dly, doing nothing in a peri od of declining demand dra m a ti c a lly i n cre a se si nven tory. This is espec i a lly insidious since du ring su ch peri ods managem ent ri gh t ly ex pects inven tory to decline in proporti on to declining sales. Convers ely, doing nothing du ring a peri od of i n cre a s i n g s a l e s wi ll redu ce inven tory level s,c re a ting the po ten tial for insu f f i c i en t i nven tory to cover demand and po s s i ble stocko ut s.l a s t ly, n egoti a ting shorter lead times and small er lot sizes with su pp l i ers can f u rt h er redu ce inven tory, while maintaining a rel i a ble kanban s ys tem and su pporting high levels of c u s tom er servi ce. >> K a n b a n l evels must be r ev i ewed and adjusted regularl y to ensure they are kept in sync with d e m a n d. Managing the risk TH E SE P T E M B E R 11 T E R RO R I S T a t t acks forced com p a- nies to con s i der a va ri ety of re s ponses to managing new inventory ri s k s. The rel entless em phasis on lean manu f actu ring and ju s t - i n - time inven tory may need to be recon s i dered to acco u n t for re a l, or po ten ti a l, d i s ru pti ons in su pp ly ch a i n s. The Ford Mo tor Com p a ny, for ex a m p l e, has mod i f i ed how it handles its lean inven tory business model. In s te ad of c a rrying almost no i nven tory, the autom a ker now stockpiles en gines and other c ri tical com pon ents at some of its U. S.p l a n t s. Ford says that it s not giving up its JIT inven tory model, but it has to plan for po s s i ble parts short a ge s. Ot h ers are taking a different approach, preferring to assess the risks of d i s ru pti on in their mu l ti - ti ered su pp ly chains and con s i der more limited re acti on s. These inclu de adding safety s tock, or lead time bu f fers, to those items in high - risk su pp ly ch a i n s. Rega rdless of the approach taken, the dec i s i ons must be b a s ed on sound fundamen t a l s,s ome of wh i ch we ve ex a m i n ed h ere. Nobody likes to hear the words redu ced dem a n d but proper inven tory planning can help manu f actu rers ease the p a i n. S t eve Cimore l l i,c F P I M, is a staff material analyst for Square D C o m p a ny. He holds a BS in Industrial Engineering, and has 20 years experience in aerospace, m i l i t a ry, and commercial manu f a c t u r i n g. He can be reached at , or via at cimore l s q u a re d. c o m. J a n u a ry 2002 A P I C S The Performance A dva n t a ge 35
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