Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. 22 July, Index

Transcription

1 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Index Introducton Outlne of the scheme Step 1. Indvdual weghts Step 2. Preference aggregaton Step 3. Determnaton of the ndcators Step 4. Fnal aggregaton Conclusons End 1

2 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton Sustanable development (Brundtland Commson 1987): development that meets the needs of the present wthout compromsng the ablty of future generatons to meet ther own needs. Ths s by nature a multcrtera concept. 2

3 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton Socal Sustanablty Economc Envronmental 3

4 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton Natural captal vs. Man-made captal. Wea sustanablty. Total captal constant. Substtutablty paradgm. Strong sustanablty. Natural captal and man-made captal are (at the most) complementary. Non substtutablty paradgm. 4

5 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton How to measure sustanablty? Lfe cycle assesment. Envronmental performance of producton and servces through all phases of ther lfe cycle (from craddle to tomb): Extractng and processng raw materals; manufacturng; transportaton and dstrbuton; use reuse and mantanance; recyclng; fnal dsposal. 5

6 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton How to measure sustanablty? Ecologcal footprnt. Estmate of the ammount of land area a human populaton gven prevalng technology would need f the current resource consumpton and polluton by the populaton s matched by the sustanable (renewable) resource producton and waste asmlaton by such a land area. 6

7 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton How to measure sustanablty? (Urban) Indcators. A set of magntudes measurng dfferent concrete aspects of sustanablty. Over 200 ndcators are presently used. Stll to be done: To defne a full common framewor (menngful and comparable) To actually measure them To develop synthetc urban sustanablty ndcators. 7

8 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Introducton In ths wor we defne a methodology based on the reference pont approach to develop a par of urban synthetc sustanablty ndcators (wea and strong) for a set of muncpaltes of Andalucía based on a pre-defned set of ndcators. 8

9 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Outlne of the scheme 0 Data selecton -Muncpaltes -Indcators -Crtera -Experts 1 Determnaton of ndvdual weghts Hald (1995) 2 Preference aggregaton Meta-Goal Programmng Rodríguez et al. (2000) 3 Synthetc ndcators wthn each class Reference Pont Werzbc (1986) 4 Fnal aggregaton Strong and Wea Indcator 9

10 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Outlne of the scheme Muncpaltes. 18 (M) Andalusan muncpaltes over nhabtants. Indcators. 4 classes: Envronmental (13) Urban development (12) Demographc (16) Economc (22) (I - number of ndcators n a gven class) 10

11 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Outlne of the scheme WATER CYCLE ENERGY MATERIALS CYCLE NOISE ATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CLASS % of water losses n the ppe lne Water consumpton (per nhabtant) Km of water supply lne Km of dranage lne Electrcty consumpton (per nhabtant) Volume of waste (per nhabtant) Paper contaners (per nhabtant) Volume of glass recycled (per nhabtant) Day nose Nght nose Atmospherc nmssons Greenhouse efect emssons Global emssons 11

12 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Outlne of the scheme Crtera. The ndcators are to be maxmzed or mnmzed Some are clear (e.g. % of water loss) Others are not so clear (e.g. Paper contaners/nhabtant electrcty consumpton) Panel of experts. 6 experts (ND): 2 Envronmental 2 Socal 2 Economc 12

13 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Indvdual Weghts Each expert ( = 1... ND) assgns weghts to the ndcators n the followng way: Assume a class of ndcators s chosen whch contans I ndcators. The expert classfes the ndcators nto L sets (VI CI I NVI NI s suggested) 13

14 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Indvdual Weghts For each l = 2... L-1 the expert s ased to place set l between sets l-1 and l+1. l a l 0.5 set l 0.25 l

15 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Indvdual Weghts The followng system of euatons s solved: a 1 l L 100 l1 0 l (1 a l ) l1 The weghts are assgned: 0 l 2 L 1 l ( 1 I) ndcator belongs to set l 15

16 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Indvdual Weghts Weghts for the envronmental class: ENVIRONMENTAL CLASS I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 I6 I7 I8 I9 I10 I11 I12 I13 DM DM2 DM DM DM DM

17 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton We establsh the followng set of goals: n p 1 I 1 ND The achevement functon taes the form: h( n p ) 17

18 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton Best maxmum devaton: ( P1) mn s.t. d 1 0 n I ( n p n 100 p p 0 ) d 0 1 I 1 I 1 ND 1 I 1 ND 1 ND (AP1) d* s max 18

19 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton Best total devaton: ( P2) mn s.t. ND n I p n ( n p p ) 1 I 1 1 I 1 I 1 ND ND (AP2) s* d max 19

20 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton Pay-off matrx: Max. dev. Agg. dev. Best d* s* Worst d max s max Meta-Goals: we choose values ~ max d d* d ~ max s s* s 20

21 21 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Meta-Goal Programmng Problem: 0 ~ ) ( ~ ) ( s.t. * 1 * 1 mn 3) ( s p n d d ND I p n I ND I p n ND d p n s s d d P ND I I max max 2. Preference Aggregaton

22 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton An auxlary problem s solved. The process can contnue untl we acheve a satsfactory soluton. The fnal result gves the group weghts for each class of ndcators. 22

23 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton Group weghts for the envronmental class: Max. dev. Agg. dev. Best Worst ~ d ~ s

24 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Preference Aggregaton Group weghts for the envronmental class: ENVIRONMENTAL CLASS I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 I6 I7 I8 I9 I10 I11 I12 I13 DM DM2 DM DM DM DM Group

25 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Determnaton of Indcators For a gven class of ndcators s the value of ndcator for muncpalty j j max max : mn : max j1 M mn mn j j j j max 100 mn mn j max j1 M 100 mn mn j

26 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Determnaton of Indcators Aspraton and reservaton levels: av 1 M a r M j1 j ( av av av 2 1 av I) r av a

27 27 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Indvdual achevement functons: ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 0 f f 100 f ) ( M j I r j r r j a j r r a r j j a a a j r a j 3. Determnaton of Indcators av a r 100

28 28 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Determnaton of Indcators Norm Weght Indvdual Achevement Functons Mun

29 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Determnaton of Indcators Constructon of the synthetc ndcators ( are the normalzed group wegths) strong : wea : s j ( w j j mn 1 I I 1 1 M ( ) ( j j a a r r ) ) 29

30 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Determnaton of Indcators Graphcal representaton: Wea Indcator M2 120 M4 100 M14 M6 080 M17 M10 M1 M9 M5 M8 060 M15 M3 M16 M12 M M18 M7 M Strong Indcator 30

31 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Fnal aggregaton Let us denote by s jh the strong and wea ndcators correspondng to muncpalty j and to the ndcator class h (h = ) Let us assume that the weghts w jh are assgned to the four classes of ndcators 4 31

32 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Fnal aggregaton Global ndcators: Weghts: strong : wea : ( j Envronmental: 0.4 Economc: 0.3 Urban development: 0.15 Demographc: 0.15 s j w j mn h1 4 4 h1 1 M ) h h w jh s jh 32

33 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Fnal aggregaton Graphcal representaton: Wea Indcator M16 M18 M11 M1 M7 M12 M10 M15 M13 M9 M3 M14 M8 M4 M2 M6 M5 M Strong Indcator

34 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July Fnal aggregaton Weghts: two optons Gve the weghts ourselves and carry out a senstvty analyss. Determne the weghts n a group decson mang process le the one carred out n step 2 34

35 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Conclusons Urban ndcators have been desgned to measure concrete aspects of sustanablty but there s a lac of a unfed measure. We have developed a full methodology to buld synthetc urban ndcators. Both strong and wea sustanablty ndcators are bult and taen nto account. The par of ndcators and ther graphcal representaton allows a more n depth analyss of the data. 35

36 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Conclusons The methodology developed comprses several dfferent schemes among whch we can pont out: Meta-Goal Programmng for the determnaton of the group weghts. Reference pont technue (objectve ranng) for the constructon of the ndcators. The scheme can be adapted to any number of ndcators and/or muncpaltes. 36

37 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Conclusons Future Research Lnes: To carry out a wder study: Broader range (natonal?) hgher number of muncpaltes. Refne the panel of experts. More relable data. Fnal aggregaton: Full systematc senstvty analyss. Classfcaton scheme. 37

38 Bulgaran Academy of Scences. 22 July 2008 Conclusons Future Research Lnes: Group weghts: Full group decson mang process. Dfferent penalzatons for n and p. Reference pont scheme: Interval crtera. Dfferent slopes for the branches of the achevement functons. Dfferent aspraton and reservaton values. 38