Growth in India: An Analysis Using Elasticities

Transcription

1 Multidimensional Poverty and Inclusive Growth in India: An Analysis Using Elasticities Sabina Alkire and Suman Seth University of Oxford November 10, 2014

2 Motivation India maintained higher economic growth than neighbours (e.g. Bangladesh, Nepal) Yet, inclusiveness of growth not relatively high In terms of income poverty reduction In terms of key social indicators Ahluwalia (2011), Dreze and Sen (2013) India s growth needs to be more inclusive

3 Inclusiveness of Economic Growth Indicators Year India Bangladesh Nepal Gross National Income per Capita (in International $) Growth (p.a.) 6.8% 5.9% 4.2% Under-5 Mortality Change (p.a.) -2.9% -5.1% DPT Immunization Rate Change (p.a.) 0.1% 1.6% 3.3% Adult Pop. with no Education Change (p.a.) -2.3% -2.7% Access to Improved Sanitation (rural pop) Change (p.a.) 6.1% 2.4% 6.8% Source: Alkire and Seth (2013). The table is inspired by Drèze and Sen (2011), with minor additions.

4 Multi-dimensional Poverty in India Studies on India s multidimensional poverty Jayaraj and Subramanian (2009) Mishra and Ray (2013) Alkire and Seth (2013) Counting approach to assess multidimensional poverty Alkire and Foster (2011): MPI Consideration of joint distribution in identification Decomposability: Study horizontal inclusiveness Dimensional breakdown: Study dimensional inclusiveness

5 Studying Inclusiveness Using Elasticity Elasticity: responsiveness of an ends variable with respect to a means variable between two periods Vertical growth elasticity: Responsiveness of national MD poverty to growth Horizontal growth elasticity: it Responsiveness of sub-national MD poverty to growth Dimensional growth elasticity: Responsiveness of dimensional deprivations to growth Other partial elasticities Foster (2014)

6 Growth Elasticity Literature Use of cross country regression analysis: income Ravallion and Chen (1997), Dollar and Kraay (2000) Bourguignon (2003) Using of point elasticity y( (study distribution effect vs. growth effect): Income Ravallion and Huppi (1990), Dutt and Ravallion (1992), Kakwani (1993) No well-known framework to study inclusiveness of growth to multidimensional poverty Our approach in this paper

7 Notation: Counting Approachc Achievement matrix: X n d + An element of X: x ij for i = 1,,n; j = 1,..,d Weights: w = (w 1, w d ), w j > 0, and Σ j w j = 1 Deprivation cutoff vector: z = (z d 1,, z d ) ++ Person i is deprived in dimension j: x ij < z j Deprivation status value: g ij = 1 if x ij < z j, else g ij = 0 Deprivation score: c i = Σ j w j jg ij, c i [0,1] Poverty cutoff: k (0,1]; (Union vs. intersection vs. intermediate)

8 Notation: Counting Approach (M 0 ) Identification: Person i is poor iff c i > k Censoring: c i (k) = c i if c i > k and c i (k) = 0, otherwise Adjusted headcount ratio (M 0 ) H: Multidimensional Headcount Ratio (incidence) A: Average deprivation score among the poor (intensity)

9 Subgroup decomposition Properties of M 0 l 0 0 l 1 l There are m population subgroups X l is the achievement matrix of subgroup l n l is the population p of subgroup l

10 Dimensional Breakdown Properties of M h j (k): censored headcount ratio 1 1

11 What is elasticity? Elasticity The responsiveness of an ends variable x with respect to a means variable y between period t 1 and t 2 Referred as y-elasticity of x Definition: ; ; δ δ δ δ Percentage change in x due to one percent change in y

12 Some Important Elasticity Formulae Growth Elasticities ; δ δ δ Y is the income variable x may be M 0, H, A, h j (k) or subgroup estimates e(x;y) is the income-elasticity of x For negative relationship, we add sign to make g p, g the elasticity positive

13 Other Elasticities M 0 -elasticity of censored headcount ratio δ ; 0 δ 0 Uncensored-elasticity of censored headcount ratio δ ; δ δ h j is the uncensored headcount ratio of dimension j

14 Example (k = 2/3, equal weight) X = CH RH MPI X' = CH RH MPI X'' = CH RH MPI 0.39 Elasticity of CH Ratio MPI RH Elasticity of CH Ratio MPI RH

15 Multiplicative Elasticity Decomposition e(x;y) can be decomposed as ; ; ; δ ; δ δ δ δ δ Example: Income-elasticityelasticity of subgroup M 0 l l l l δ l 0 δ l 0 ; 0 ; ; δ δ Example: Income elasticity it of fch ratio δ δ ; ; ; δ δ

16 Data Multidimensional Poverty: Two rounds of National Family Health Surveys for trend analysis NFHS-2 (1998/99) and NFHS-3 (2005/06) Adjustment to preserve comparability (Alkire and Seth 2013) State Domestic Product and Net National Product Handbook of Statistics on the India Economy Adjustment due to different base years prices Net vs. Gross: Sub-national analysis

17 Results: National Growth NNP- Elasticity MPI % 0.55 H 56.8% 48.5% -2.2% 0.49 A 52.9% 51.7% -0.3% 0.07 PC-NNP 46% 4.6% PC-NNP: Per Capita Net Domestic Product Vertical inclusiveness of growth For a comparison of vertical inclusiveness across countries, see Alkire, Roche, and Vaz (2014)

18 MPI Growth Vs. Income Growth across States 3.0% Arunachal Pradesh Grwoth in MP PI 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% Bihar Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Nagaland Assam Punjab Manipur Jammu & Kashmir Mizoram Goa West Bengal India Orissa Meghalaya Haryana Sikkim Gujarat Himachal Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Tripura y = 0.699x % -15.0% -18.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Growth in Per-Capita Net State Domestic Product Kerala

19 Horizontal Inclusiveness of National Growth Rajast Bihar han Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Nagal and West Bengal Meghalaya Assam Tripura Orissa Haryana Sikkim Punjab Gujarat Manipur Maharashtra Karnataka Himachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Jammu & Kash mir Mizoram Tamil Nadu Goa Kerala National Growth Elasticity of MPI

20 Decomposition of Horizontal Inclusiveness Bihar Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Nagaland West Bengal Meghalaya Assam Tripura O rissa Haryana Sikkim Punjab Gujarat Manipur Maharashtra Karnataka Himachal Pra desh Andhra Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Mizoram Tamil Nadu Goa Kerala National Growth Elasticity of MPI State Growth Elasticity of MPI National Growth Elasticity of State Growth

21 Incidence vs. Intensity Tripura Bihar Haryana Meghalaya West Bengal Uttar Pradesh Orissa Rajasthan Sikkim Nagal and Madhya Pradesh Assam Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Himachal Pradesh Maharashtra Karnataka Tamil N adu Manipur Punjab Jammu & Kashmir Kerala Goa Mizoram Growth Elasticity of MPI H Elasticity of MPI

22 Dimensional Inclusiveness of National Growth Growth Elaticity of Censored Headcount Ratio

23 Uncensored-Censored Elasticity Decomposition Growth Elaticity of Censored Headcount Ratio Uncensored Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio Growth Elaticity of Uncensored Headcount Ratio

24 MPI vs. Uncensored Elasticity of CH Ratio National MPI Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio Uncensored Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio

25 Example: West Bengal MPI Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio Uncensored Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio

26 Example: Urban Areas MPI Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio Uncensored Elasticity of Censored Headcount Ratio

27 Concluding Remarks Although India has higher economic growth than neighbors, growth in MPI is has been much slower We explore three types of inclusiveness Vertical inclusiveness Horizontal inclusiveness Dimensional inclusiveness We use elasticities to study responsiveness

28 Elasticity decomposition Concluding Remarks National Growth, state growth, MPI State growth, incidence, MPI National growth, uncensored headcount, censored headcount Nationally, ygrowth-elasticity of MPI is 0.55 Large heterogeneity across states Look at translation of national growth to states and the MPI Analyze dimensional inclusiveness nationally and across states