About the seasonal effects on the potential liquid consumption

Transcription

1 About the seasonal effects on the potential liquid consumption Lucie Ravelojaona Guillaume Perrez Clément Cousin ENAC 14/01/2013

2 Consumption raw data Figure : Evolution during one year of different family turnover

3 Consumption raw data Figure : Evolution during one year of different family turnover Figure : Evolution of the ratio of the turnover of each family of products against the global turnover

4 Consumption raw data ice creams alcoholic beverages non alcoholic beverage

5 Consumption raw data ice creams alcoholic beverages non alcoholic beverage Figure : Evolution of different families during one year

6 Temperature raw data Figure : Evolution of average weekly temperature during one year

7 Evolution of no alcoholic beverages per week during one year Figure : Evolution of no alcoholic beverages per week during one year

8 No alcool beverage sells fonction of temperature Figure : No alcohol beverage sells fonction of temperature

9 No alcool beverage sells fonction of temperature Dependent Variable: DATA NOALCOHOL Method: Least Squares Date: 01/08/13 Time: 19:42 Sample: 1 52 Included observations: 52 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C DATA T E R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Figure : No alcohol beverage sells fonction of temperature Table : No alcohol beverage sells fonction of temperature

10 No alcool beverage sells fonction of temperature Figure : Variation of the no alcohol beverage sells fonction of variation of temperature

11 No alcool beverage sells fonction of temperature Dependent Variable: VAR NOALCOHOL Method: Least Squares Date: 01/08/13 Time: 21:38 Sample (adjusted): 2 52 Included observations: 51 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C VAR T E R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Figure : Variation of the no alcohol beverage sells fonction of variation of temperature Table : Variation of the no alcohol beverage sells fonction of variation of temperature

12 No alcool beverage sells fonction of temperature Dependent Variable: DATA NOALCOHOL Method: Least Squares Date: 01/08/13 Time: 19:42 Sample: 1 52 Included observations: 52 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C DATA T E R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Table : No alcohol beverage sells fonction of temperature Dependent Variable: DATA NOALCOHOL Method: Least Squares Date: 01/08/13 Time: 19:35 Sample (adjusted): 2 52 Included observations: 51 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C DATA T E VAR T 8.60E R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0 Table : No alcohol beverage sells fonction of temperature and its variations

13 No alcool beverage sells fonction of temperature and other values Dependent Variable: VAR NOALCOHOL Method: Least Squares Date: 01/08/13 Time: 21:38 Sample: 1 52 Included observations: 52 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C TEMPK TEMPK2 3.22E E R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Table : Variation of the no alcohol beverage sells fonction of temperature and temperature squared Dependent Variable: VAR NOALCOHOL Method: Least Squares Date: 01/08/13 Time: 21:45 Sample: 1 52 Included observations: 52 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C TEMPK TEMPK2 7.27E E DEWK DEWK2-5.73E E PRECIPITATIONS R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) 0 Table : Variation of the no alcohol beverage sells fonction of other parameters

14 Limits: y = T K TK D K DK 2 (1) P cm small sample small time period lack of relevant parameters

15 Limits: y = T K TK D K DK 2 (1) P cm small sample small time period lack of relevant parameters