THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

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1 K KAWAMURA KODAI MATH J 2 (1979), THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTION BY KAZUTOMO KAWAMURA Summary In this paper we shall derive a multivariate Poisson distribution and we shall discuss its structure Notations and Definitions n positive integer X (X U,, X n ) n dimensional random vector ϊ=(h, U, '-, hi) n dimensional vector with, 1 components k=(k ly k 2,, k n ) n dimensional vector with nonnegative integer components x=(x l9 x 2,, x n ) observation of X p(x, λ) Poisson density with parameter λ Main Results 1 Multivariate Bernoulli distribution B(l, pi) Multivariate Bernoulli distribution is defined by P(X=ί)=Pt where pi^o and ΣiA*=l The moment generating function (m g f) is given by The marginal distribution of this multivariate Bernoulli distribution is also degenerated Bernoulli The covariance matrix of B(\, pi) is given by Cov(Xj,X k )= Σ Pi Σ Pi- Σ Pt Σ ρ i 9 lj = l k = lj=l k = l l = ll k = lj=olk = l Received May 18,

2 338 KAZUTOMO KAWAMURA Proof Cov(X,, X k )= Σ xμkpi- Σ XjPi Σ x k pt 2J pi Σ Pi Σ Pi = ισ_ 1 Λ( ι _Σ_ o Λ + ι Σ _ίt+ ( Σ Jt+ v II Pi) -( Σ ft+ Σ Λ-X Σ />*+ Σ Pi) = Έ Pi Έ Pi- Σ Λ Σ ij=ι k = ij=ι k = i ij=i,ι k =o ij=o,ι k = ΣΛ-(Σί, )! t^i ι Γ i 2 Multivariate binomial distribution 5(Λ^ p t ) Multivariate binomial distribution is defined by Σk 11 a! This distribution is derived by N time convolution of B(l, p t ) The m g f of the distribution is given by The marginal distribution of this multivanate binomial distribution is also degenerated binomial Covariance matrix of B(N, pi) is given by Cov(X Jf X k )=N( Σ Pi Σ Pi- Σ Pi Σ ρ t ), 3 Multivariate Poisson distribution Multivariate Poisson distribution is a limiting distribution of B(N, pi) as N-^cx) under the condition of Npi=λ t where λ τ is a non-negative fixed parameter If a random vector X has a binomial distribution B(N, pi) and if we assume Npi=λ t then we have \imp(x=k)= Σ Πίk«where p(a t, λ % ) is an univariate Poisson density THEOREM 1 // a random vector X has a distribution B{N, pi) then we have

3 THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTION 339 Proof By the condition we get lira P(X=k)= Σ ΠMJ,), therefore the limit value of each term is lim a π HPi> lia t! i p= ^! r(l (λ,γ7 ) λt Y'ττ 11-ττα λ *" 1 a o ΐ ΦO iφo Π = Π p{a,, λ,) iφo Therefore we have lim^ P{X=k)= \ψ N N χ ta ι Σaiij=kj iφq l iφo a t! = Σ_ fc Πί(αJ,) Σ^iV!Π-~^ THEOREM 2 The moment generating function of the limiting distribution is given by h(s)=exp{- Σ λt+ Σ λis*} Proof h(s)= lim g(s) N = lim N p λ N Npi λ iv-»o i^o N

4 34 KAZUTOMO KAWAMURA where s I =s 1 ll s 2 l2 s n ln ίφo iφo THEOREM 3 // a random vector X has the POISSOJI law, then we have an unique decomposition of the random vector by Xj= Σ X t where Xi(iΦ) are mutually independent, univariate Poisson variables with parameter λ t Proof This is a direct conclusion from the definition of the distribution of convolution type Mathematical proof is given as followings In the bivariate case n=2, if X=(X lf ) has the Poisson law, our m g f h(s) becomes h(β)=exp{ (λ 1 o+λo 1 +λ 11 )+λ lo s 1 +λois 2 +λ n s 1 s 2 } = exp( ^io + ^iosi)exp( ^oi + ^ois 2 )exp( ^π + ^nsisg) If we put Sg^l, then we get the m g f of X λ exρ( Λio+ΛiosOexpC Λn+ΛusO This is a m g f of convolution type, and if we put s ι l J we get exp( >ί ol +ΛiS 2 )exp( λ n +λ n s 2 ) the m g f of of convolution type Then we have a decomposition If we put X n 'φx n " with positive probability then this is contradictory to the fact that X n ', X n " has a bivariate m g f / Therefore we have X n =X n //=X 11 with probability one And we can express the decomposition of given X {X lf ) as X 1 =X 1 -{-X n, Xoi-\-Xu In this equality X 1, X 1 and X n are mutually independent Poisson distribution with parameter λ 1, λ Q1 and λ n respectively, as to be proved THEOREM 4 The covariance matrix of the multivanate Poisson distribution is given by,)=σλ, Cov(X,,X k )= Σ λ Proof This is a direct conclusion using the m g f of the distribution (Theorem 2) or the preceding decomposition Theorem Generally a m g f is given by

5 THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTION 341 )=Σ s*p(x=k) And we have d 2 h(s) =Σ k i k J s 1 k is t k i' 1 s J k ri Sn k np(x=k), We use the result of Theorem 2, h(s) becomes then -= {Σ ι*ϋis j " s»'*- 1 s n ι A(β){ Σ i^ s ' s/'- s;"} {Σ r 9'Ms) I L dsβs k Jίj-ίz -«B -i =A(β)I,,,, -!:( Σ x^)( Σ :*^)+ Σ V*;,] 1 n iφo ΪVO iφo E(X,X k )= Σ W(ΣλXΣλ) And (Z y ), (Z A ) is given by E(X,)=Vnτ(X,)= Σ λ t, E(X k )=Var(X k ) Finally we have 1^ = 1 )= (^)= Σ Λ, THEOREM 5 // a random vector X has the Poisson law, then the marginal distribution is also a degenerated Poisson Proof Since X has a m g f h(s), it follows that X a >=(X l9, X 3 - u X J+1, -' > %n) = 1* 2,, n) has a mgf /ι(s) 5; =1

6 342 KAZUTOMO KAWAMURA A(β), _!=exp{- Σ/!i+ Σ to 1 },,-i =exp{- Σ ( Σ λ,)+ Σ ( Σ W vλ'-'w '^ V 1 } ioήo V = o > 1 io)#o V = o > 1 This means that if X has a Poisson distribution, it follows that X O) a generated Poisson distribution And, similarly, if we put has also then the m g f of the vector is given by x( Σ ( Σ l J 1 ' l J 2 '"' l J k Therefore, the random vector χ^iή ->Jk^ has a degenerated Poisson distribution as to be proved The marginal distribution X 3 of X is Poisson with a param- COROLLARY 1 eter Σ λ t lj = l (jφk), then X 3 and X k are mutually inde- COROLLARY 2 // Cov(Z ;, X k ) pendent random variables THEOREM 6 // X lf f, XN are mutually independent random vectors of the multivariate Poisson distribution, then the sum Σ Xj has a multivariate Poisson distribution Proof The m g f of the sum vector is given by h(s) N =exp N{- Σ λt+ Σ λiβ*} =exp{- Σ Nλi+ Σ NλiS*} ^ O This means that the sum vector is also a multivariate Poisson distribution with parameter Nλ t (i N Estimation of covariance matrix We assume that X lf,, X N are mutually independent multivariate Poisson random vectors with unknown parameter λ t Given a sequence of the

7 THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTION 343 random vectors, we shall estimate the mean vector and the covariance matrix, in this section A sequence of multivariate Poisson random vectors X k =(X lk, -,Xnk) (*=1,2, -,N) k sum χ ίk Xik Xsk Xik Xδk Xsk Xik X%k sum This sequence of random vectors is of n=8 dimensional Poisson distribution and the sample size iv 2 In this paper, we use ^G T7 Σ X%k > SiJ Tr Σ \Xik~Xι)\Xjk iv fc=i iv k=i Xj) where we get easily S tj 5 ;i Estimated mean values and standard deviations 5 2 =4583 S S 4 =1235 Z 5 =785 J 6 -=73 J? 7 =85 Z 8 =12 S 5 =3328 S 6 =32573 S S 8 =177 Sample mean of the sum 1965 Standard deviation of the sum Estimated covariance matrix The estimated covariance matrix is given by

8 344 KAZUTOMO KAWAMURA s=ιs tj i The main components Έ( (z=l, 2, -, n) will be refined by using estimated mean vector _ 1 N And the estimated sample covariances in with negative values are not natural, because all parameters Σ Λ estimated by S XJ must be nonnegative Therefore we shall refine the estimeter S as S +z =[S li7+ ] where S τj + equals to S tj iff S ιj^ and iff S tj < And a more refined estimater will be given by S=[5 t J where S tj is defined by _ Xτ iff i=j, S υ + Because the parameter estimated by S ιt is the variance value of X x and equals to the mean value of X t And we get easily S ll +=S li '^, S + ι; =S^+ and S ιj =S ji Then we have iff iφj S= Conclusion of this section 1 The unknown mean values of (X lf, X n )

9 THE STRUCTURE OF MULTIVARIATE POISSON DISTRIBUTION 345 are to be estimated by EXi Σ A l}, EX n = Σ Λ, where X\> '" f X-n 7 X t =^Σ L X ik (ι=l,2,-,«) 2 The unknown covariance matrix of (X 1}, ZJ [Cov(Z,, Xj)l Cov( ^^) = Σ will be estimated by the sample covariance matrix S or S + 3 And a more refined covariance matrix will be given by S REFERENCES [1] FELLER, W, An introduction to probability theory and its applications, Vol 1, sec ed 6-th print (1961) [ 2 ] KAWAMURA, K, The structure of trivariate Poisson distribution, Vol 28, No 1, 1-8 (1976) Kodai Math Sem Rep [ 3] KENDALL, MG and A STUART, The advanced theory of statistics, Vol 1 Distribution theory, second ed Criffin (1963) DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

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