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1 :!" #$% & $' ()$'* 87/12/20 : 87/9/30 : * VAR &' # ()! "!# $ % " 8! ', +% 7 %./ ' 0 *#1,# +! 2 3 '4 5( %+% #,-. C D% / 5(: / % / 5(: 2" / #9% # : % ;- 0 #(<= > /?> 4@ AB0 +! ' 4 5( ' '1 #,- > 5% H (>#> './ #! '(1 2! 4@ E-F +! G! ' (-> # C D% / 5(: 2! '4 0-*% <. / 5K L (! ' #I% '4J #.#! +! +! 2 3 / (@ -> ' 44! (5 O> M P( # B5N B( / #! #()-M 23.'05% Javid_ Bahrami@yahoo.com MaryamFarshchhi83@yahoo.com Q10, Q33, Q43, C32 :JEL : VAR!"#

2 +!" # () %" *+!' ", -. //.( $% &!' $ &!'! 8.( 7 23 (%") 45 ' 6!' 23 ;!" <, -$#7, =, &9-6$ & -:!5?@ AB C, ( D3" $# 23 >., AE$ & F, G$B 7 H"3. I,! 1& F N - JK $& F 23 K % $% L!F L&6M I, " 23 -& F &!'!".!(, U 2" N -$, B <, 23 %!P( LQR' S& JK L(,!' -' 23 6 $6 -(!5.P " 23 JK.$" 1350 $=, V!( I, Z 5. - ( " N J L[' &$. B ' CB!!, D3" ( VAR!' >!> " [$ L[' " 23 ]H D5( \!' H,K [$!E, ^! - VAR F L /$, P $ >.! $# V!( [$ \, D3" 3! " VAR 4 %) % %! *) +, -." '$ % #$ %!,!',!!K *, K _N -( $&! ( _N E `&N J, a$, J# 1. De-industrialization 2. De-agriculturalization 3. Choleski Decomposition of the Covariance Matrix 4. Recursive Structure 1390 $ /! "# /

3 ,( just identified) CB ( b. $& (over identified) ( 2 E.P.!( =c H,K ( $(!> I,?, L?@ =$ -!>!. 7!',$6K $ -( _N E K 9 ( VAR ]$# ( VAR.. B!K S&!?, d.(svar), VAR $5 e@mf LQR' SVAR AB f!, =$ 6/. 5 D65, 6!' -&B " I% b -=, B 2I% [$ -K $5 7P " 23 #, B &B! " 23 ^'.] B &6M 23 Q!. 2 '&6M > $,..( (1991) 12 % &6M $% L!F " I,,-! -I6?, =, F!" N -=, B 2I% - $# H>!' AB " 23. $% k=' & F `&l' > " 6!' 2I% !5 &6M (1994) 2Love J G$B 23 7 K QR',!#$!" o6 23 ( (, p, L[' $,., 8 " 23 #, B % q8,!#$ &. $( I, L6!' 2 -,$ : 7$# 1. M Fardmanesh, (1991), Terms of Trade Shocks and Structural Adjustment in Small Country, Dutch Disease and Oil Price Increases Journal of Development of Economics, vol 34, pp Roy Love, (1994), Drought, Dutch Disease and Controlled Transition in Botswana Agriculture Journal of Southern African Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp

4 " 23 [$( =, B Q -!5 6/ (1996) 1Uri 8 =$ B! H6 9 P. [$( 2 q8 =, B 2I% $,, _ 23 C, QR'!5 &6M (2004) 2 Ponzio /$&. $ ' ;IP &9 4!G5 -L F 2I% A6 K L' B '6 k!" 6 r B 2I% q8!5. ( /, & 23 P, " G$B ( ",,! t -$6. ( s, G$B ( `B!' q8 & 23 C, $,..(!5 K ;IP " H$ Q (2006) 3Levy Q -CGE =$. B! Z!" H$5 > 23 s $=, K!H $,. B AE' I'! K!,5 % 2 sc ; Z 7$# -,K.!( $ " N L( 2I% $, $,.!5 6/ (1380) 4C $3 L9' A6 6 -( U " N L!F " 23 =, K 2I% Q -" =, 23. `&N ]$# K 2SLS b =$ H,K.! ]/$#c L!F! "# / 1390 $ / 1. N.D Uri,(1996), Changing Crude Oil Price Effects on US Agricultural Employment, vol 18, pp Carlos A Ponzio, (2004), Export Boom and Rising Prices in Late Colonial Mexico: A Dutch Disease? Chapter 1 in Essays on the History of Economic Growth in Mexico, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, Harvard University. 3. S. Levy, (2006), Public Investment to Reserve, Dutch Disease: The Case of Chad, International Food Policy Research Institute, Discussion Paper, No 35. %') :%. %,4" % 58 %97 % " 1380 )C.35 %'.?@6.A, %,4" <= > "./0. %) ; <= % >

5 , _M/ I Lr & $=, K 2IB = Q' 8 P - $% $5.( L 2I% " ,,! AE' =$ (1383)1 a$,. $5 " 23 6!' =, B QR' 1350 C, = " 23 =, B QR' ", -. u. 2 " $ 23 6!' -$=, K. $% 2!9 " 23 I% b =, V!( Q.! `$3!v' -* 23-6/. K SVAR wn!' *HZ *! #B.!( (.!( em $% L!F -$, H, $% 4G$5,),' 23 Z ; 6!' 2!&!9 _ F 6!' -`" ( C, \!( $= G$B p, 6I,, ; -L=$. &9 Lr!E'!( S%. : G$B ( &9 _ x"$ (, V!( H - B (. Z. $" (K. ( y".!( ( 2 ;!v'.( > %')) ; %,4" 51 ) J6 J')= K66 )9L ". ;HC 'I %@. <= 5,OC ><8 2. Carlos A Ponzio., (2004) Export Boom and Rising Prices in Late Colonial Mexico: A Dutch Disease? Chapter 1 in Essays on the History of Economic Growth in Mexico, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, Harvard University.

6 _ C, y! Q (1982) 1 Neary Corden.. ( & F N $& F 23 L6!' &9 <, 23 (1. ( $%?, ;Z! G$B ; 23 6 r 6!' 23 -(N) L5 (3 (L) & F (2 (B) >!' *! 23 - $# >!,H> B ( s, -. u. s, 6 r 6!' 5 B =$!5 45 6!' H, 23. >> 23.( sxm&, A!8 B : s > Q &9 _ ( C, -.!' ]/$# L!F B 2 3 K "3 :2{3 Q - `6 6 xg L6 K _> C9 ]/$#c 23 K &B B 2I%. 2I% N 23 r B - I J >!'. N L B 23 _ }s> J>! ( N 51 % J')= K L 51 % J')=.K%, ; +, P) ".'6 58 B 2 3, H, 6!',K :3_ >> Q -} 2I% B 23, N/' -$% 2I% K %!P( ( 8!( B N L 23, >> q8.. L 6!' 2 J>! B L, >>. Q!5, >> * 6. x& & F N ]/$#Q N8 2 J>! {3 Q >!' - B N,!' $% 2I% &B B. u. N N/' 2I%! "# / 1390 $ / 1. W. Max Corden,, and J. Peter Neary (1982), Booming sector and Deindustrialisation in a Small Open Economy,Economic Journal,Vol. 92 (December), pp Spending Effect 3. Resource Movement Effect

7 "' q8 %.. N L, >> A8, -r Q >!'. {3 Q (, & F N ]$!5 & F N ]/$#c!hu J>! N L ( B L, >> (, ]/$# $PZ! `&l' & F 23 $% &!' <, 23 -H, Q 2 {3Q 6 -!( $PZ!.P L5 23.!(.%!5 2I% 23. 6!' [$( -( _ >>!> S% *I,P (1984) 1 Van Weinberger ;. #! P( s 6 23 learning by doing.?, -=, -r 6!' G$B. 6!' s, 6 r 7 s 6 r 23 L6!'. -* L!F 23 $" 6!' -, $% B G$B {5 I, =, 23. 2I% K 2I% K 6!' =, B 2I%.,, 5.!( $%?, r $" N/' $=, K $B! 2I% 2I% s, 6 r B K, s, 6,!( >> L5 23 & F 23 _ -.. learning by Q 8 -*. 2 s 6 r 6!' J>! s 6 r 6!' _' 6I, /$, -doing B H, -s, 6 L6!' 2I%.!( r. L6!' B 2I% ~ r. 1. Sweder Van Wijnbergen (1984), The Dutch Disease : A Disease After All?, Economic Journal Vol. 94 (March), pp

8 >!' > H S%!5 (1987)1 Krugman!36 &'. P G$B..&' $(s L6!', *?, s, 6 s 6 r /$&.!( >> 23. 6!' A8 H '! 8 I.. 7$# $(s }' H -$& F `" -.K!>!!9 2#, _ 6!' 23 / B 2 &9 _ G$B {5 ( A/$ 5! 8 AF K &9 B 2 A5 I$ 2I% q8 /$,..!( $%?,,!( 6!'!" {5 r -$,.!( 6!' 23 _ 23 C,,r!9 L., L!F 6!' A5 2I% 6!' #,!% r$ >5!" - *' &9.,!5 $5!9 r 6!' L 23 AP"$ "3 G$B ; -(1992) Matsuyama3 =$, 23.!( $%?, & F " learning by Q. ( H, G/, $# H,K K.%!(.&' $& F L6!'!' H!( U & F 23 doing $ " r K 2" N/' x 9..( em " H 2I%! 8 &9 _ C, C, G$B (. : M ; -$# G$B ;.!(! "# / 1390 $ / 1. Paul Krugman, (1987), The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease, and the Competitive Consequence of Mrs Thatcher, Journal of Development of Economics Vol. 27, pp Comparative Advantages 3. Kiminori Matsuyama (1992), Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth,Journal of Economic Theory, vol 58, pp

9 , }s> q8 &9 _ 2I%. 2 &9 _ $& F L6!' J $ ( p,, ' & F 23!' (. = M - G$B ;. }$( G$B ( -( [$( 2I% q8 &9 _ C,.!> ( C, G$B 2I% &9 _ 23 #,! $% C, 23 $& F L6!', '!( & F 23 B 2 J>!..!!5 6I, G$B ( p, - 2 ( LF!G5 (1995) Sach & warner1 [$( 2 y! LQ.., I, s 6 r 6!' 23 A( H,K. R' & F 23!, (&9 _ ) <, 23.( s, 6 R".!( /' I, K,> ;! 8, B =$ 2, I, ( (, K.% L[' -. ( J $ G$B ( p, -LQ 6.( & F 23 H,K DG3' 25' A#, f!,. -( & F 23 [$( ]H. (OLG)!9 G$B ( p, 2 &9 _,K %!P( > K 2I%! 8 &9 _ C,. & 8., 'Q!> A#, -.. #=' G$B 2I% H,K B -s, 6 r N/' 2I% -. s, 6 r 23 & F 23 _ >> [$( 2 2I% s, 6 r 6 A#, I 1. Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Andrew M. Warner (1995), Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,NBER Working Paper Overlapping Generation Model (OLG)

10 G$B ( $, DG3' 2, 5Ä 2 q8 & F.. Z 9 %.. 2 QR' =$ $" -&!'!" - K J# L F &!' y" &9 _ 23 C, >! _ E!" 7 -D5r.!( wn!' K ]% ' r L P K. 2" - r B -&9 _ 23 b$# (, N/' 2I%, ' r L 6.. 2I% L( 'c ' r B -$,.(!5 r. B ( 2I% _,! _ DG3' H,..%!5 2 #,!9 ' r 23 6!' 6&%! 'c L6!'.(!5,.'* / ,!6 7' SVAR - (, K 2I% -] $(s 23,! #, $6. ( Q! " 23,!' =, L F B QR' E' C9 #, B L[', ^'. #, *!& -. u. L!F % %" Å K %&' -' A( -" 23 6 $ ^! LQR' ( $#,!' Z ' -$ sb % & ' c. : 5 =, B 2I%!>! E >!' k!% J'.$%?,.!( =$ [$ HZ SVAR ; 6/. -K L" >!' ) LROP =, &B B ]$76 A/$ L9'!. 5 D65, 6!' ]$76 -( ( A&' SDR r b [' 1390 $ /! "# /

11 L[' N8 V!( Lr!E',! 8 LRGDP &B #, B ]$76 LRAG " 23 I% b ]$76 -K.% A N D5( " 23 N D5( #,) " r. 2, (6!' *%!5 qe -.?, }!ZZ d (K.] ck -!(.3' *B VAR ( A : ;46 % % (1) #% p q Y t = A Y + B X + CD + u i ti j t j t t i= 1 j= 1 (1) u t (0, u ) $# [$ 7, Y t K D [$ f!, -+ S8?, -% G'c [$ I, t ~' M.!(?@,!., [$ - [$ -!5 =B [$.!( wn!' % G'c (.[' 2 [$ I, H,K =B. ( A *% ; M. s6 K K (1) *% SVAR $5 *%!G'!' :( L!F - A -1 AY p q * * t = Ai Yt i + B j X t j i= 1 j= 1 t ( 0, Ik ) + C * D + B., ( U M ] [$ K > / -k!% M (2) M.%9 *r (1) M (2) M -_B :=!' ~.!( }N t t X t (2)

12 A = A i 1 A * i, B j = A 1 B * j, C = A 1 C * ; i = 1,..., p j = 1,..., q (3) u = 1 t A B t :?% *)Q' U =A-1BBA -1 (4 ). $% b$# 9! L SVAR f!, }!ZZ. AB A=I k K B - B=I k K A.!( _N B ] A ~' ],!'?,! E,!' ( A *% % G' I> ", (4) M L!F V!( ] S%. ( $5 % G' V!( ' ] -B=I k & - ( ; ~, -$5 LQR'!?.!!5 ' V!( ( F@5 *% V!( -B ~'.$( $5 - [$ $5 V!(! ^!.3' =$ ] A ~' K, F@5 *% $!?.K ( A *% $ $ K 2 A ~' K & Ç$5 *% $ ( A K AP"$ %F VAR ]$# 6..!(.3' $5 ]$# A ( J''.. M5 A/$# K( K 1).] {$ A ~' E 2 -!v' u, Z. 7 "Z ;!v' L?@ E. ( 2 ]$# - _N A '2 E AB -]$# A ( ~.! ]!5 >! ( over identified) 1390 $ /! "# /

13 (,,!' E.., A~' E 6.( [$ I ^' 4!G5?,,!,B t LROP LRP LRGDP LRAG [ t, t, t t ] L!F $5 V!( =, LROP ( V!( - t ) =, &B B V!( -. I>.]?, op&, " 23 #, B " Lr!GE N/' LRGDP ( V!( t ) LRAG ( K ] A: t ) LRP ( A N8 Lr!E' K.% V!( - t ) " Lr!GE N8 Q! % G' A!8 V!(. 7$# *8 -J''.. ( ', %K % G' f!, >!' B=I k S% s6.(, Ä & S% % G' B Lr!E' Ä (. /M N% -( em V!( " Lr!GE ' $" " #,. ^' H,K $5 V!( QR' [$. I ^'! 5R' $=, K!Z -r (?$,!' -I L!F =, B V!( I Q - B!" G$B o$ =, B ],?$, J''.. ( =F 7 Lr & $5 H!( *t QR' E' G$B [$ ;! 8 6 & I [$ ^! JN -s6 B ^' =F E 6 J ' '..( =F =, &B B V!(. >!' -,Q.!( AF G$B =, A/$ LQR' }K ( ', L%K!Z % G' A!8 (, " Lr!GE N8 L!F ],?$, - s Q " Lr!GE =B! 2I% -7 x9.( N D65, 6!' ^! 6 & I!5 " r #, B 2I% " Lr!GE N/'

14 I% b 6!',!$ I L!F B,?$, 6! D65, 6!' A (?$,!', s6 [' " 23 AF I, 7 =F E ~. B QR' E' I, 5 E 9.?, L?@ -k!% J' >!'.!( B B A~' s6 e9 AB A ~' yi>! =F Ç!! A= a 1 a a , B = $ :; <% 8! 9 $& ( A VAR ; $ -$5 VAR K : A C/E' *I$#!5. -.3' = :>5?@5 7$(, >.&' -, AE' I' *B.6 "!K $, ", > -( &6M!,. ADF! "# / 1390 $ /

15 ADF "!K.1 > LRP LROP LRGDP LRAG /96-1/ 0-3/ 01-1/ 71 W# -4/79-4/ 54-7/ 44-12/ 4, PX S8 G% [$ -, wm!k!k,[$ - AN='!. ( *, +!K t K b ^! -> ( *B. ( $(s -3/13-3/41 --3/96 / J'' -%10 -%5 -%1 wm -2/57-2/86 --3/43 / -J ' ' AN='! P > AF $, >!' [$ AN=' ^! =B &'.!( #/. (.&' b!5 V@ : [$ '!( D3" k!% a$,.$%?,.%?, I1!' *r - wef wg' J K b }3$, >!K. $,. L!F I, 7$(,]!>! : ( 2 (

16 Trace $%&'() *+,-./.2!" p.) 0/00 0/09,-./ 3/ 106/2 40/2 $%&'() *+ 01) )!2 0 1 ; AN=' -b!5 V@ CM ( bi!k [$, -+ S8 >,( $%?, 5R' [' I, 5R' > 2I% -$6. ( [$ wm G%., H, a$, ; &6M! [$.!( D3"!K a$, >!' wm =$ VAR!' s6 $(!> 7$(, ] M..3' [$ 6 - A05 S8.$%?, VAR.3' J =B : u, Z!K -], }3$, 8 & G% [$, -+?, 1., F!' 1 & J =B - }3$, ^! [$ (Trend), -(Constant)+ S8 1 =B >.$%.3' 1386: :2 VAR (S1, S2, S3) G%!>,", -(.3'!K *B.6,=R$.(! "# / 1390 $ /,!, ##!K -1 (!, C9.!(?@ $5 LQ * #P( $ Y6, I ;7 Y6 % H@, =, 58 " J "Z ;. 1."'6 A# *

17 F% #P( $ 7, chow #P( M/,!K. ", 1380 #P. >!' L8@ >5 H (, 6 "% "' $ p, * #P 1376!H> [' H,K 5 8,!',F%. ( $5 ( _B > 1381 $ Lr!E'. ^! [$ - (!I $5 L['.] B!K! D81-D76 -D74 -D72 H, Ö= VAR H,K s6! [$ F a$, *! AG% >5 H$ E "' LQ' I% I, D84 [$ -& 1384.!(?@ 3 > -H, 6 ( A VAR.3' $,

18 ( A $5 L['. 1!, 1390 $ /! "# /

19 LROP(-1) LRP(-1) LRGDP(-1) LRAG(-1) D72 D74 D76 D84 Constant S 1 S 2 S 3 Trend 2 R (1386:4 $;) 1367:2) VAR! ( LROP 0/ 681 (0/00) -0/004 (0/99) -0/728 (0/09) 0/180 (0/52) -0/238 (0/01) -0/051 (0/51) -0/187 (0/02) 0/051 (0/51) 6/853 (0/07) 0/073 (0/1) 0/093 (0/04) 0/020 (0/65) 0/020 (0/00) 0/93 LRP -0/084 (0/032) 0/367 (0/00) -0/468 (0/01) 0/219 (0/06) -0/145 (0/00) 0/094 (0/00) 0/018 (0/58) 0/014 (0/67) 3/543 (0/03) -0/022 (0/25) -0/034 (0/07) -0/032 (0/08) 0/000 (0/92) 0/93 LRGDP 0/016 (0/49) 0/082 (0/17) 0/808 (0/00) -0/127 (0/07) 0/021 (0/36) -0/017 (0/37) -0/025 (0/19) 0/010 (0/61) 3/138 (0/00) 0/005 (0/66) 0/000 (0/98) -0/002 (0/83) 0/004 (0/01) 0/98.3!" LRAG -0/029 (0/54) 0/112 (0/36) 0/797 (0/00) -0/333 (0/02) 0/063 (0/18) -0/001 (0/99) -0/037 (0/34) 0/099 (0/01) 3/329 (0/08) 0/032 (0/16) 0/009 (0/68) -0/007 (0/74) 0/004 (0/19) 0/91.J p [% ;46 6C ;,% \=%, )'1 % K4 A 5R'[$ t -?$,,! -.3' a$, C9 Q. $(, QR'[$. -=, &B B $(s :$

20 &B B wm 2 ", H ' D76 D72 [$ = =, &B B $ ( 7, AB H6 #/ =, " #, B = Q' =, &B B. (,.., U " I% b & Q - b " #, B s QR' *8-7 >!' AB LP, 23 % %" N8 Lr!E' : QR'. 23. I% 23 I% b &!'!(?@ -!H" á@ " "% J6>. u., % %" `=3' " AB -$6. $( " 23 : Q 1384, ~ >5 $5 AE' I' *, J?, $5!B _N $, *, AB s6. &MB?, HU!s a$,!!', -9! *, $5 E _N!K!Z -&MB. s - B!.C -K AF ' $% #=' =$,! AB F@5, 4 ( >.!( AF 9 K $8. VAR ( A $% L!F!K a$,! "# / 1390 $ /

21 VAR - F 5, B!.C 9.4 -,-./,-./ 3/ P.) (=, 5) 8 - [, ;7 6 '%C ;7 (=, 20) `a #! b+ ; 6 ;7 (1993) (=, 7) )c ARCH ;7 LMF = 1/01 296/4 ^ = 3/64 -)4" = 7/9 _4 %7 = 11/56 710/00 AP" t -$% L!F!K!(?@,! Ä ( $6., P(K F 95 wm, *8,", -" 23 I% b 6 & - V> K!K. >!' $ Lr &! 6 U!!' A..K,!, *8,", I, $5 AE' I' K #, yp' AB $& K ÜE6. B VAR 0/46 0/61 0/46 0/1 0/17 0/39,'GH :>5?@5 I'!' -( A VAR J wg' 9 J# V!( HZ I LQ ~' -!?..5 $5 AE' : b (A ~') % B qe! 3 23 $5.].3' L!F $

22 ,'GH C J5 K L A p.) >? ) 0/009-0/5503 0/006 0/2837 0/000-1/0491 a 23 a 24 a 43 6 #/ ) %N E 3 M -( $= á@b,!.( 3 %N ( K > -(A ( E K > Z _!' (, 2!B.!K K ( 0/4!I H$ E $8 p b. 3/ #,!', =$!?, E ", B D5r - [$! L9' &6M -!'! $H a$, -$5 V!( HZ A/ " I% b #,. L!F $5 IR \ N!, ;..!, {3$ Efron & Tibshirani (1993)!( - K b %95 $ AF!% a$,.$h Jmulti I% *, =$ bootstrap L!F (, L!F $) $8 AF!%. Z ( >!' $6.1. (, }!M 2(!!.( SVAR AF a$, 7, (2)!, L!F t & A&6 ~P8 -?$, C9 =, &B B P >!' -, ", (b!5 ^! V!( c ) $5 V!( ; M) LRP " #, B & -,B[$ \ (2)!, 1. B. Efron and R.J Tibshirani (1993), An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall $ /! "# /

23 I% b (* M) LRGDP 5 D65, 6!' -(r LROP =, &B B V!( J'' (*! M) LRAG " *!$) LRP " Lr!GE #, B -(àz!$) A! 8 V!( (à Z *!!$) LRGDP A N8 <!6! P' V!( -(àz ( 2, (àz *HZ!$) LRAG " Q! % G'.,'GH, NH6 L.2'!

24 àz M!9 r$) " Lr!GE #, B 2 ( -=, &B B 2I% -$, N/' "3.R' >5 " Lr!GE M á%f Q..]( (A5 ( 6!' " Lr!GE N/' %!(?@ - M *!$. & *HZ 6 AG% QR' -N/' A8 ;! 8 " #, B 2I% V!( *!!$., *' ] AG% ' $ ] #, Q * AG% /% <!6! P' N8 V!(!(?@ M. ", " 23 #, B `&N & = QR' -" Lr!GE N8 2I% V!( ]?@ *HZ!$ á%f QR'.. $(s " r #, B s 6 B K & Q AG% ; (s ( &.,!3,. $5 V!( &B D65, 6!' \ 7, * M D65, 6!' =, &B B V!( s Q *8 ->!' Iâ $P, H ' $=, K 2I% $ - r$. M.!$ 5 2 -( ( ($5 L5,) 6&% 5!/' -$6. : 5 D65, 6!' H, Q (& F A:) 7 H$6&% I, & F 23 P8 -]$#,!$, K L" E 8!Z *!$.!', &MB?, HU t!. -] 7 6&% b$# $#,!$, " &!' ", M.!H" * M *!!$ 7 J6> $P,.!( G$B ( 6!' <!6! P' N8 V!( ', á$#, QR' " 23 P >!'. *' & L!F AG% 23.!B L9' /% L!F -( % %" ",!', 1390 $ /! "# /

25 *HZ!$ A6!' " = Q' -. 6&%.!!3, KJ&' Z -!(?@ AG% =, B 2I% Z ]?@ -*! M!$ $8 AF!%.P6 - $(s " I% b Q. *!$ P 7 J6> $P,. ( QR'. & *8 I% b & Q B% #, B 2I% -]?@ M!. K & B% 6 : QR'! " I% b " #, B L[' s QR' *8.(!H"! AB " L6!' &!' _,! I!> (,,!' " $6 I, J H$5 -}K _.( #, B 2 <!6! P'!H V!( ] " *! M *!!$ " I% b - 6 ~ ] *7 ] N8 A!8 b s QR' 7, *! M *HZ!$ -H,. /'... ', L%K -! }K (?, % G' V!( " I% ~ & ;Z! = Q ; K, & -,K : QR' *8 *I$#. " 6&%!' AG% ;. #, - ". * =$,O@ : a$, &6M. L" #, B & 2 L!G =, &B B 2I% Q -1 -" I% b 2 H> K & QR' *8 " k=' " 23. K 6&% & J3' _, 23. H$ 6 - $%

26 A/ 6 " 23?,.. (.#,, $=, V!(!8 $B! L8# (, " L6!' % G' 2I% -2 D65, 6!'!8 2I% & L!F $!$,! }K (!Z 23!B,!,!' " 23 P ]c 8.!( 6& % *r Hs K 7, ". -( 7. $%7, L!F -, =$ H,! 8 " L6!' B : V!( " 23 I% b! \ *8-3 6&% &!' $5 _,! ", 23. #, " }K _! ^!.P _,!..!> 23. " r $B s6.(,! 7 H$5 Q' -7 x9.,.r' 23. &!'!!3, B H '. #, $ H$!$ = V!(!' QR' >!' " H$6&% ( LN -4 F!'!' -]sä - [$( L>H!> /M :!, em $ 6,!> " 23,!$ (!>!, -, G$B!8 ( %,! 23. &!' ' 6&% &!' I, 23.,! H$5 s. " L6!'! "# / 1390 $ /

27 !" # $ " ,. /0 1$ "' () *+, :%.1380! 4 "(*+,) ' ;%< = =,) >$% #?< ".8,9" ':$ Corden, W. Max, and J. Peter Neary (1982). Booming Sector and Deindustrialisation in a Small Open Economy, Economic Journal,Vol. 92 (December), pp Efron B. and Tibshirani R.J, (1993). An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall. 5. Fardmanesh M. (1991). Terms of Trade Shocks and Structural Adjustment in Small Country, Dutch Disease and Oil Price Increases Journal of Development of Economics, Vol 34, pp Krugman, Paul (1987). The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease, and the Competitive Consequence of Mrs. Thatcher, Journal of Development of Economics Vol. 27, pp Levy S., (2006). Public Investment to Reserve Dutch Disease: The Case of Chad, International Food Policy Research Institute, Dsiscussion paper, No Love Roy, (1994). Drought, Dutch Disease and Controlled Transition in Botswana Agriculture Journal of Southern African Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp Lutkepohl Helmut (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer. 10. Matsuyama Kiminori (1992). Agricultural Productivity, Comparative advantage, and Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol 58, pp Ponzio, Carlos A. (2004), Export Boom and Rising Prices in Late Colonial Mexico: A Dutch Disease? Chapter 1 in Essays on the History of Economic Growth in Mexico, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, Harvard University 12. Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Andrew M. Warner (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth, NBER working paper Uri N.D. (1996), Changing Crude Oil Price Effects on US Agricultural Employment, Vol 18, pp an Wijnbergen, Sweder (1984), The Dutch disease : A Disease After All?, Economic Journal Vol. 94 (March), pp

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