Temperature Rise of the Earth
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1 Avilble online ScienceDirec Procedi - Socil nd Behviorl Scien ce s 88 ( 2013 ) Socil nd Behviorl Sciences Symposium, 4 h Inernionl Science, Socil Science, Engineering nd Energy Conference 2012 (I-SEEC 2012) Temperure Rise of he Erh Jriy Pipswe,*, Miree Podisuk b Ksem Bundi Universiy, Bngkok, 250, Thilnd b Fculy of Science nd Technology, Ksem Bundi Universiy, Bngkok, 250, Thilnd Absrc In he curren siuion, environmenl issues re likely more inense nd nurl resources coninue o diminish rpidly. Wse mngemen issues, ir polluion, wer polluion, nurl dissers, he environmen degrded slowly led o impc o ecosysems nd living environmen such s globl wrming. The impc essenil o find, reduce nd prevenion nd keep up wih his problem o occur. Temperure rise of he erh, in [1], ws recorded from he yer 1880 in celsius. I recorded he emperure of he erh rising bove he emperure of he erh of he yer The scieniss poin ou h if he emperure rises 6 c bove he emperure of he yer 1880 hen he Briish Englnd will be under wer. This mens h he big disser will hppen o our erh. This pper will use he mhemicl model of M. Podisuk, S. Khunidilokwongs nd W. Rnmewee (2006), in [2], o predic he ime of his big disser of our erh by using he d from [1] The Auhors. Published by Elsevier by Elsevier Ld. Open Ld. ccess under CC BY-NC-ND license. Selecion nd/or peer-review under under responsibiliy responsibiliy of Deprmen of Fculy of Plnning of Science nd nd Developmen, Technology, Ksem Ksem Bundi Bundi Universiy Universiy, - Bngkok Bngkok. Keywords : Temperure Rise of he Erh, dissers, globl wrming 1. Inroducion M. Podisuk, S. Khunidilokwongs nd W. Rnmewee (2006) inroduced he mhemicl model y x) b ( Ae (1) o predic he emperure of he objec, especilly, he rising emperure. Since he Newon Cooling Lw does no work well for he rising emperure. From he bove model, we cn see h he iniil emperure is A nd he emperure he infinie ime is Ae. If Ae is bove 6 when we hve big disser. However, we do no expec h he big disser hppens he infinie ime. This mens h he bove model mus be modified. The modificion of he bove model will be discussed in he nex secion II. * Corresponding uhor. E-mil ddress: envi142@homil.com The Auhors. Published by Elsevier Ld. Open ccess under CC BY-NC-ND license. Selecion nd/or peer-review under responsibiliy of Deprmen of Plnning nd Developmen, Ksem Bundi Universiy - Bngkok doi:.16/j.sbspro
2 Jriy Pipswe nd Miree Podisuk / Procedi - Socil nd Behviorl Sciences 88 ( 2013 ) Formulion The emperure rise of he erh in [1] hs recorded he emperure rise of he erh he yer 1960, 1970 nd 1980 re s follow, 1960 c c 1980 c. From he model (1), we obin A =. Thus we hve y x) 0. 18e b ( (2) The emperure rise of he erh he yer 1970 ws 0.24 c so we hve, 1 b y ( 1) b 0.24 hus 0.24 nd b 1 (3) The emperure rise of he erh he yer 1980 ws 0.24 c so we hve, 2 2 b 2 y ( ) hus 2 2 b nd b 2 (4) The from (3) nd (4), we hve nd b However, we expec h
3 222 Jriy Pipswe nd Miree Podisuk / Procedi - Socil nd Behviorl Sciences 88 ( 2013 ) y ( ) 6 Thus nd b Thus, we hve wo mhemicl models, ( ) y (5) nd ( ) If we use he model (5) o find y (2), we obin, y (2) = nd y ( ) = If we use he model (6) o find y (2), we obin, y (2) = nd y (500) = y (6) From hese wo resuls, we my predic he big disser will hppen eiher in he yer of 22 or fer he yer of However, we prefer o find he oher model h my work beer hn he bove wo models. We come up closed o. Afer mny rils, we find h if =.222 hen we obin he model, y ( ) (7) nd y(2) = nd y( ) = Thus wih his model (7), he big disser will hppen in he yer of We lso find h if = Then we obin he model, 2950 ( ) y (8) nd y(2) = nd y( ) =
4 Jriy Pipswe nd Miree Podisuk / Procedi - Socil nd Behviorl Sciences 88 ( 2013 ) Thus wih his model (8), he big disser will hppen in he yer of 22. The curve of he model (7) nd he model (8) re in he following figures. 3. The Anoher Model The d of he emperure rise of he erh in (1), indiced h he emperure rise of he erh of he yer 1880 is 0.01 nd he emperure rise of he erh of he yer 1980 is. Now we mny use he model, nd we obin he model, y Ae (9) y ( ) 0.01e () nd y(6) = h is he big disser will occur in he yer of 2065 which is sooner hn he ls wo models, (7) nd (8)
5 224 Jriy Pipswe nd Miree Podisuk / Procedi - Socil nd Behviorl Sciences 88 ( 2013 ) Conclusion The mhemicl model (7) nd (8) seem o work well for our purpose. We srongly recommend hese wo models o predic he emperure rise of he erh. We predic h he big disser o our erh will hppen during he yer of 22 nd he yer of The big disser o our erh will hppen sooner or ler depending on how we use he nurl resources of our erh. However, we should keep in mind h he big disser my pper in he yer of References [1] D. Burghes, P. Glbrih, N. Price nd A. Sherlock Mhemicl Modeling, Prenice Hll Inernionl (UK) Limied. [2] M. Podisuk, S. Khunidilokwongs nd W. Rnmewee Guss-Legendre Qudrure Formul in Runge-Ku Mehod wih Modified Model of Newon Cooling Lw. Proceeding of he 8h WSEAS Inernionl Conference on Mhemicl Mehods nd Compuionl Techniques in Elecricl Engineering, Buchres, Ocober 16-17, 2006, Pge
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