Probability Review. Chao Lan

Transcription

1 Probability Review Chao Lan

2 Let s start with a single random variable

3 Random Experiment A random experiment has three elements 1. sample space Ω: set of all possible outcomes e.g.,ω={1,2,3,4,5,6} 2. event space E: collection of subsets of Ω e.g., E={{1},...,{1,2},...,{3,4,6},...,{1,2,3,4,5,6}}=2 Ω 3. probability measure P: a special function P : E R e.g., P({1})=1/6, P({3,4,6})=3/6

4 Axioms of Probability Probability measure P needs to satisfy 1. P(e) 0, for any event e E e.g.,p({3,4,6})=3/ P(Ω)=1 e.g., P({1,2,3,4,5,6})=1 3. if e1,e2 E are disjoint, then P(e1 e2)=p(e1)+p(e2) e.g., P({1} {2,4,6})=P({1})+P({2,4,6})

5 Exercise Tomorrow s Temperature Tomorrow s Weather Sample Space Ω =? Sample Space Ω =? Event Space E =? Event Space E =? Probability Measure P? Probability Measure P?

6 Exercise A random experiment is flipping a coin twice (getting H or T in each trial) 1. sample space Ω =? 2. event space E =? 3. probability measure P? A random experiment can be a single trial or a sequence of trails.

7 Random Variable A random variable X is a function X : Ω R. Q: are the following random variables? 1. X({1}) = 1, X({3}) = 3, 2. X({1}) = 19, X({3}) = 45.7, 3. X({1}) = 1, X({3}) = 1,

8 Random Variable A random variable X is a function X : E R. Q: are the following random variables? 1. X({1}) = 1, X({3}) = 3, 2. X({1}) = 19, X({3}) = 45.7, 3. X({1}) = 1, X({3}) = 1, Q: why bother?

9 Random Variable Random variable makes presentation easier! Example 1 If X({1})=19 and X({3})=45.7, instead of writing P({1}), P({3}), we can write P(X=19), P(X=45.7). Example 2 If X counts odds over three trials, e.g., X({1, 2, 6})=1, X({1,2,3})=2, instead of writing P(1 odd) or P(2 odds), we can write P(X=1) or P(X=2).

10 Discrete Variable vs Continuous Variable X is discrete if it maps E to a discrete domain (our focus) - e.g., X({3})=1, X({1,2,3})=2 - specify P(X=1), P(X=2), etc X is continuous if it maps E to a continuous domain - e.g., X(angle) = specify P(0 X 30), etc For continuous random variable X, P(X=a)=0.

11 Properties of Probability 1. if e1 e2, then P(e1) P(e2) e.g., since {2} {2,4,6}, we have P({2}) P({2,4,6}) 2. P(e1 e2) min{p(e1), P(e2)} e.g., P({2,3} {2,4,6}) min{p({2,3}),p({2,4,6})} 3. P(e1 e2) P(e1) + P(e2) [union bound] e.g., P({2,3} {2,4,6}) P({2,3}) + P({2,4,6})

12 Properties of Probability 4. P(Ω \ e) = 1 - P(e) e.g., P({1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1,2,3}) = 1 - P({1,2,3}) 5. if e1,e2 are disjoint, e1 e2=ω, then P(e1)+P(e2)=1 [law of total probability] e.g., P({1,2,3})+P({4,5,6}) = 1

13 What is the distribution of a random variable?

14 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) CDF of X is a function CDFX: R [0,1] specifying a special probability CDFX(a) = P(X a) Example If X counts odds, P(X 3) is the chance of getting three trials with no more than 3 odds, i.e., P(X 3) = P({e:X(e) 3}) If X is temperature, P(X 27) is the chance of getting tomorrow s temperature of no higher than 27F i.e., P(X 27) = P({e:X(e) 27})

15 Properties of CDF CDF of X is a function CDFX: R [0,1] specifying a special probability CDFX(a) = P(X a) 1. 0 CDF(a) 1 2. lima - CDF(a) = 0 3. lima + CDF(a) = 1 4. if a b, then CDF(a) CDF(b)

16 Probability Density Function (PDF) PDF of a continuous random variable X is the derivative of its CDF p(x) = CDF(x) / x

17 Example: Gaussian Distribution If X follows a Gaussian distribution (or, normal distribution), then

18 Different PDFs

19 Properties of PDF PDF of a continuous random variable X is the derivative of its CDF p(x) = CDF(x) / x 1. p(x) 0 2. x (-,+ ) p(x) dx = 1 3. x S p(x) dx = P(X S)

20 Probability Mass Function (PMF) PMF of a discrete random variable X is a table of probabilities for all events.

21 Different PMFs

22 Properties of PMF PMF of a discrete random variable X is a table of probabilities for all events p(x) 0 2. Σx (-,+ ) p(x) = 1 3. Σx S p(x) = P(X S)

23 Based on distribution, we can define expectation and variance of a variable...

24 Expectation Expectation of a random variable is its weighted average value. E[X] = Σx D x*p(x) X p(x) E[X] = Σx D x*p(x) = 1* * * = 1.75 or E[X] = x D x*p(x) dx

25 Expectation of Standard Normal Distribution Expectation of a normally distributed random variable ~N(0,σ2) is zero. One can similarly prove expectation of variable from N(m,σ2) is m.

26 Properties of Expectation Expectation of a random variable is its weighted average value. E[X] = Σx D x*p(x) 1. E[a] = a, for any constant a 2. E[a*X] = a*e[x] 3. E[X+Y] = E[X] + E[Y] 4. E[1X=k] = P(X=k) or E[X] = x D x*p(x) dx

27 Variance Variance of a random variable is its average deviation from its expectation. Var[X] = E [ (X-E[X])2 ] X p(x) E[X] Var[X] = Σx D x*p(x) = Σx D (X-E[X])2*p(x) = 1* * *0.25 = (1-1.75)2*0.5 + (2-1.75)2* (3-1.75)2* = 1.75 = Note expectation E[X] is a constant.

28 Variance of Normally Distributed Variable

29 Variance of Other Distribution Poisson Distribution Rayleigh Distribution

30 Properties of Variance Variance of a random variable is its average deviation from its expectation. Var[X] = E [ (X-E[X])2 ] 1. Var[X] = E[X2] - E[X]2 2. Var[a] = 0 for constant a 3. Var[aX] = a2 Var[X]

31 Common Distributions

32 Now we look at two (discrete) random variables... The following slides are largely built on the lecture slides of probability by Klein and Abbeel.

33 Recap: Distribution of Single Variable Q: what is the probability that tomorrow is hot and sun, i.e. P(T=hot, W=sun)?

34 Joint Distribution of Two Variables Joint distribution is a table of probabilities of all joint events.

35 Marginal Distribution Sometimes we are interested in the distribution of one variable. We can obtain it from the joint distribution by marginalizing it. marginal distribution

36 Exercise

37 Conditional Distribution Sometimes we are interested in the distribution of one variable X while fixing the other Y. This is conditional distribution and defined as P(X Y) = P(X,Y) / P(Y).

38 Conditional Distribution Sometimes we are interested in the distribution of one variable X while fixing the other Y. This is conditional distribution and defined as P(X Y) = P(X,Y) / P(Y).

39 Exercise

40 Remark Variable X can have different distributions when conditioned on different Y.

41 Product Rule Infer joint probability from marginal probability and conditional probability.

42 Exercise

43 Chain Rule Split a joint probability of multiple variables into conditional probabilities of each.

44 Chain Rule Split a joint probability of multiple variables into conditional probabilities of each. Q: how to derive it?

45 Bayes s Rule Bayes s rule connects two conditional probabilities. - P(A) is prior of A, P(A B) is posterior of A - p(a=a B=b) = p(b=b A=a)*p(A=a) / p(b=b) [discrete] - p(a b) = p(b a)*p(a) / p(b) [continuous] Q: how to derive Bayes s Rule? Why Bayes s rule?

46 Example We randomly pick up a coin and flip it to get head (H) or tail (T). We know a priori that - 40% coins are fair (F), and 60% are unfair (U) - 80% chance we get a head (from an arbitrary coin) If we get head, what is the chance the flipped coin is fair? P(F H)?

47 Exercise

48 Independence Two variables X and Y are independent if P(X, Y) = P(X) P(Y) - or, equivalently P(X Y) = P(X) - p(x=x,y=y) = p(x=x)*p(y=y) [discrete] - p(x,y) = p(x)*p(y) [continuous]

49 Expectation Expectation of two random variables X,Y is E[g(X,Y)] = Σ(x,y) D g(x,y)*p(x,y) or E[g(X,Y)] = (x,y) D g(x,y)*p(x) dxdy

50 Covariance Covariance of two variables X, Y is Cov(X,Y) = E[(X-E[X])(Y - E[Y])] - if X=Y, then Cov(X,Y) = Var(X) = Var(Y) - Cov(X,Y) = E[XY] - E[X] E[Y] - Var[X+Y] = Var[X] + Var[Y] + Cov[X,Y] - if X, Y are independent, then Cov[X,Y] = 0 (uncorrelated)

51 Property of Covariance