DSS FOR CONTROL OF POTATO LATE BLIGHT BENT J. NIELSEN, JENS GRØNBECH HANSEN & LARS BØDKER AARHUS UNIVERSITY & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURE
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1 5. OCTOBER 2012 BLIGHT MANAGEMENT DSS FOR CONTROL OF POTATO LATE BLIGHT EXPERIENCES FROM DENMARK BENT J. NIELSEN, JENS GRØNBECH HANSEN & LARS BØDKER AARHUS & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURE UNI VERSI TET
2 Potato FA Q. How close is la te b lig t to my a re a / fie ld Is it b lig ht weather now? Blig ht weather th e comming da ys? Is it tim e to a d just / change stra te gie s? Ne e d for e ffe ctive pre ve ntive fung icid e s? Ne e d for cura tive a ctions? Can I save money? 2
3 National concerns. Sporuleringstimer [HSPO] Juni Juli August September TFI Increasing use of fung icid e s Fa rme r economy Danish pota to production Behandlingshyppighed
4 Decission support Possib ility to re d uce fung icid e inp ut Effe ctive dise a se control Im p rove m e nts in control stra te gie s Sa me or higher ne t yie ld Research and developpment supported by Danish Pota to Council (KAF) Ministry of Environment Ministry of Ag riculture (Na turerhve rvstyre lse n) 4
5 Blight Management De cission support syste m for control of pota to la te b lig ht (Phytophthora infestans) Support to potato growers and advisors Information and forecast system Monitoring of first attack and spread of LB Weather forecast Prognosis for potential infection pressure Recommendations Recomended dose level depending on risk (not public yet) ( 5
6 Occurrence of late blight No a tta ck in country Atta ck in country Atta ck in re g ion Atta ck in fie ld Recordings from a d visors tha t frequently a re visiting pota to fie ld s Re d : Ne w infe ctions. Blue: > 10 da ys old Monitoring ne twork
7 Infection pressure Daily risk values (HSPO, hours/ day): Temperature > 10C RH > 88 % Local weather Te m p e ra ture Rh Hourly va lue s 4 days weather forecast Sum HSPO: (running mean) Prognosis for the day and comming 4 da ys Estima te of sp ore production, sp re a d and infe ction
8 Infection pressure Historica l d a ta Actua l day 4 da ys fore ca st
9 Local risk level VERY HIGH HIGH MODERATE LOW
10 Regional risk levels
11 Weather data Rh, te mp and p re cip ita tion historica l va lue s and 7 da ys prognosis (Da nish Me t. Office ) Re g iona l weather for ca st (Da nish Me t. Office ) Actua l day
12 Weather data Sta tus for p re cip ita tion Ma y Give n p e riod Actua l week
13 Available tools at 13
14 Use of information Fa rme rs Sta rch p rod uce rs Ad visors Na tiona l a dvisory se rvice Decission support Background information com b ine d with othe r informa tion Support not d e cission m od e l (!) Recommendations and newsle tte rs to fa rme rs We kly a d visor telephone meetings in the se a son (Mo nd a y) 14
15 Toolbox on development platform Different applications under development GUDP p roje ct p la tform Development tools for the p roje ct lstyring.d k
16 Toolbox: Ne g a tiv prognosis Model to fore ca st risk of la te b lig ht outb re a k (va lue s>130) (Ullrich and Schrod te r) Te m p e ra ture, Rh, and rainfall (starting at crop emergence) Accumulated risk va lue s Can be e use d pre dict the timing of the first tre a tme nt. Mod e l a ssumes the sa m e a m ount of initia l inoculum is p re se nt e ve ry ye a r Old m od e l tha t just needs to be implemented and e xp la ine d
17 Toolbox: Sm a rtp hone a p p lica tions Loca l Infe ction pressure available as a p p lica tion on sm a rtp one (de mo ve rsion)
18 Toolbox: Ind e x fo r surviva l of sporangia Survuiva l of sporangia depends on g lob a l ra d ia tion (UV) Infe ction risk = surviva l ra te x sp ora ng ia UV ra d ia tioin + prognosis for UV ra d ia tion
19 Toolbox: Re sista nce le ve l in va rie tie s Susceptible Moderate resistant. Higher level beginning of season (Kuras) 100 % angrebet bladareal Bintje Saturna Kuras Oleva Te st a fte r Euca b lig ht protocol. No tria ls for the moment
20 Toolbox: Fung icid e dose model Dose va rie s depending on risk situa tion (a ctua l and coming days)
21 Fungicide dose model Use of fung icid e s (d ose x inte rva ls) d e p e nd on risk situa tion (actual and coming days): Recommended actual dose: Infe ction p re ssure x occurence o f LB x le ve l of re sista nce No or low risk of infe ction: No spraying or low dose of effective fung icid e s Incre a sing risk of infe ction: Dose of effective fung icid e s depends on a ctua l risk
22 Dose-response curves for potato fungicides, examples Dithane % Control Doselevel (% of normal, N=2 kg) % control Ranman Dithane Doselevel (% of normal, N=0,2 l) % Control Curzate M Doselevel (% of normal, N=2,5 kgl) Revus % bekæmpelse Dose niveau (% af normal, N=0,5 NB!) AU, Flakkebjerg 12 sprayings, 7 days intervals
23 Re sista nce le ve l in va rie tie s Susceptible Moderate resistant. Higher level beginning of season (Kuras) 100 % angrebet bladareal Bintje Saturna Kuras Oleva
24 Fung icid e d ose le ve ls in m od e l Dose level (100=full dose) Atta ck in fie ld Atta ck in re g ion Atta ck in country No a tta ck in country 24
25 Fie ld tria ls with dose models Dithane NT 2 kg/ ha 2. Ra nm e n Re vus 1/ 1 dose 3. Ranman Re vus ½ dose 4. Mo d e l 1 Reduced dose e sp e cia lly e a rly se a son 5. Mo d e l 2 Dose furthe r reduced 6. Mo d e l 3 As model 1 but include s Dithane NT Va rie try: Locations: Kura s (sta rch va rie ty) 3 (Fla kke b je rg, He rning & Try) 25
26 9 tria ls AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model ,5 7,7 10, tria ls n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9, n.s.
27 9 tria ls AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model ,5 7,7 10, tria ls n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9, n.s.
28 9 tria ls AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) TFI Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model ,5 7,7 10, tria ls n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9, n.s.
29 9 tria ls AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model ,5 7,7 10, tria ls n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9, n.s.
30 Treatment frequency ind e x *) 3 tria ls tria ls Dithane NT Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 8% Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 21% Model 2 25% Model 2 36% Model 3 Model 3 15% Re d uc tion 0-25% (favorable b lig ht cond itions) Re d uc tion 15-36% *) number of time s sp ra ye d with sta nda rd dose (e.g. 4 x ½ = 2) 30
31 Summary: Blight Management Monitoring syste m works a nd shows the first a tta cks and sp re a d o f LB Ca lcula tion of infe ction p re ssure works Le ve l re fle cts p e riod s with low and hig h LB dise a se p re ssure (experienced from p ra ctice ) Ba sis for a d justing stra te gie s and tim ing of cura tive p rod ucts 31
32 Summary: Dose model Still a re se a rch m od e l Ba sis for re d uction in fung icid e inp ut (a p p rox.30%) Sa me or be tte r LB control a s full standard dose Sa me ne t yie ld as standard rutine Im p rove m e nts: Alte rna ria modul Ne w fung icid e s (p re v./ cur.) Ea rly sta rt 32
33 Blight Management? 33
34 34
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