V o l. 21, N o. 2 M ar., 2002 PRO GR ESS IN GEO GRA PH Y ,, 2030, (KZ9522J 12220) E2m ail: w igsnrr1ac1cn

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1 PRO GR ESS IN GEO GRA PH Y V o l. 21, N o. 2 M ar., 2002 : (2002) , (, ) : 30,, , 3,, 2030,,, 2030, hm kg 460 kg, kg kg % 87% t, t, t, t, t, 10%,,,,,,, : ; ; ; : S17: A,, 2030, 16,,, [1 ] 1 111, 2030, 2030, 1610 [2 ], : ; : : ( ); (KZ9522J 12220) : (19612 ),,,, E2m ail: w igsnrr1ac1cn

2 GNP 2030, GN P U SD (1990 ), [3 ] kg,,,,,, [3 ] (), GN P U SD, 536 kg 517 kg684 kg500 kg [3 ] 2030, GN P U SD,, 460 kg , t, t, t 615, 1211% ,, ,, t (), t 90% [3 ] 21111, 2030, hm 2 [4 ] 60%, 170%, hm 2 (16 ), kgghm 2 () kggahm 2,, 1, 1995 F ig11r elationsh ip betw een farm land kgghm 2 (160%, ) and food p roduction, ()

3 2 : [5 ] kgghm 2, t( 1) , , 420 kg 460 kg, kg kg hm hm 2, kgghm kgghm 2, kg kg, % 87% (1) 1 Tab11Ch ina s food secur ity based on farm land change g g10 4 hm gkg gkghm g10 8 kg g10 8 kg g10 4 hm g% , t 21211, 2030, t,, 1g5, 2 kg 013 kg (015 kg), t hm 2 1g10, hm 2,, hm 2, t (81 ) () t hm 2, hm hm hm hm 2, kg [6 ],, t t, ( % ), 1108, t hm 2, g50, kgghm 2, t t 21214

4 ,, hm 2, kgghm 2, kg, 2g5, t t 3,,,,, ,,,, (),,, 1995 ( ) 7715% , hm 2, hm 2, 6513%, hm 2, 31113, hm 2 (, ), hm 2, 819%,, km 2 ( ), t, m 3,, 31115,, ; (66% ), ( 34% ) ; ( 39% ), (61% ):,, ;,, ,,

5 2 : ,, 31213,,,,, 31214, kgghm kgghm 2,,,,,, (), ; ; ; 31216,,,,,,,,,, :,, ( ), , : ( ) hm 2, ( ), ( ),,,, 11 (),,

6 ,, () () () 4 ( ),,, 1995,, 617%,, 3714% [7 ],, 12 () 7 (), %, % ; 25 30, %, 24113%, ( 2),,, ( ) [5 ] [7 ] Tab12Basic situation s on food production in North, northeast Ch ina and g g g10 4 hm 2 Changj iang R iver Basin in 1995 : ghm 2 g10 4 hm 2 gkghm - 2 g10 3 t g10 3 t g% g% : -,, 1995, 400 kg ;,, 1996

7 2 : ,,,,,, :,,,,,,, ;, ;, ;,,, ; ( ), , 16, : 50%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : ; ; ; 4,,, 30,, : [ 1 ]B row n L R. W ho W ill Feed Ch ina? [M ] N o rton, N ew Yo rk, [ 2 ]. 21 [M ]. :, [ 3 ]. [M ]. :, [ 4 ]. [M ], [ 5 ]. [M ]. :, [ 6 ]. [J ]., 11 (4) :

8 [ 7 ]. [M ]. :, [ 8 ]. g [J ]., 2001, 20 (4) : [ 9 ]. [J ]., 2001, 20 (3) : [ 10 ][].. [M ]. :, Food D emand, En sure and Coun term easures for Ch ina in the Next 30 Y ears W U Shao2hong, L i Rong2sheng ( Institute of Geograph ical Sciences and N atural R esources R esearch, CA S, Beijing Ch ina) Abstract: In the new cen tu ry, foods suppo rt capab ility is a ho t po in t of the w o rld, espe2 cially by the year 2030 w hen population of Ch ina w ill reach peak value of 116 b illion. T he w ho le w o rld focu ses on Ch inese food self2sufficiency and w o rld food m arket chao ṡ T he population w ill en ter a phase of zero increasing o r decreasing after reach ing the peak value. E stim ated by the national situation analysis group of Ch inese A cadem y of Sciences, in the year 2030, GN P of per cap ita of Ch ina w ill reach U SD, w h ich is equal to m edium developed coun tries. A cco rding to Ch inese m eal cu stom, rational foods con sump tion of per cap ita is 460 kg w hen GN P of per cap ita of Ch ina reaches U SD in year In the com ing 30 years, Ch ina has to p rovide foods fo r ano ther peop le. To tal foods de2 m and w ill be t, w h ich is t mo re than the food p roduction of 1997, ṫ R ate of population increasing w ill be 615annually w h ile food de2 m and increasing w ill be 1211% annually. W ithou t environm en tal dam age and no impact on comparison advan tage, po ten tial of farm land p roduction is in year 2030, w h ich is 90% of the to tal foods dem and. Based on food dem and per cap ita respectively 420 kg and 460 kg, and to tally and t, farm land (seeding area) is estim ated hm 2 and hm 2. U n it food p roduction is estim ated kg and kgghm 2. T hen the to tal food p roduction w ill reach t and ṫ T herefo re, after dynam ic changes of the farm land, food supp ly capacity w ill be 93% and 87% of the requ irem en tṡ Food sub stitu tion capab ility of non2farm land resou rces m ay be as m uch as ṫ Coun term easu res fo r foods en su re include guaran teeing foods supp ly and developm en ṫ Fou r aspects shou ld be recogn ized: po licy suppo rt to p ro tect farm land, scien tific and techno logical p rogress and input, conceive of food p roduction system, en su r2 ing system and h igh efficien t hydrau lic p ro jects. E stab lishm en t of po licy to p ro tect farm 2 land w ill keep dynam ic balance of farm land, p ro tect farm land of East Ch ina, p ro tect paddy field and top so il of farm land, and imp rove farm land quality. P rogress and input of sciences and techno logies include general decision2m ak ing techn iques, b io logical techn iques and in2 du strialization, agricu ltu ral info rm ation techn iques, increasing p roductivity of un it farm 2

9 2 : land, fodder techn iques, environm en tal p ro tection and agricu ltu ral disaster reduction tech2 n iques. Setting up m u lti2purpo se food p roduction and guaran tee system s is allocation of m u lti2purpo se food p roduction system, allocation of food p roduction bases of Ch ina, food2 en su ring system of Ch ina. Imp lem en ting h igh efficiency w ater con servancy p ro jects fo r a2 gricu ltu re is saving on w ater and increasing the efficiency in u sing w ater. It is impo rtan t to estab lish th ree system s fo r w ater saving, that is, w ater m anagem en t system, p rice system and h igh efficien t techn ical system. W ith the analysis of h igher food requ irem en t, low er farm land p roduction and non2farm land sub stitu tion, it is show ed that food dem and in 2030 w ill be t, of w h ich abou t 90% com es from farm land and 10% com es from non2farm land sub stitu tion, and food dem and and supp ly of Ch ina fo r the nex t 30 years is basically in balance. U sing the in ternational food resou rces in little amoun t to adju st Ch i2 nese m arket w ill no t cau se chao s of the in ternational food m arket. Key words: foods; dem and; en su re; coun term easu re

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