Citi Conference Sydney October 2009

Transcription

1 Citi Conference Sydney October 2009 Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU) Robert Porter General Manager, Investor Relations

2 Disclaimer Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with exploring for, developing, mining, processing and sale of minerals. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as anticipate, estimates, should, will, expects, plans or similar expressions. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable but they may be affected by a range of variables and changes in underlying assumptions which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially. These include, but are not limited to: price and currency fluctuations, actual supply versus demand, production results, reserve and resource estimates, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, legislative and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates. Specific Risks & Sensitivities The information contained in this presentation is subject to, but not exclusively to, the following: Changes in exchange rate assumptions Changes in product pricing assumptions Major changes in mine plans and/or resources Changes in equipment life or capability Emergence of previously underestimated technical challenges Environmental or social pressures which impact licence to operate All currency referred to is Australian denominated unless otherwise indicated. 2

3 Presentation Structure 1. Investment Proposition 2. Recent Progress & Industry Characteristics 3. Emerging Characteristics 3

4 Investment Proposition Principal objective: creation and delivery of shareholder value Key components for investment market consideration: Capital-efficient transformation of asset base Markedly improved financial characteristics Iluka s industry position and focus on supply and pricing disciplines Favourable supply/demand factors in a late cycle commodity play 4

5 Iluka s Investment Proposition Financial Characteristics compared with Higher production/sales of higher value products Higher EBITDA/revenue margin and return on capital Higher operating cash flow Substantially lower capital expenditure from 2010 Lower debt levels and improved balance sheet flexibility Increased optionality vis a vis Mining Area C royalty stream 5

6 Transformation of the Portfolio Major capital expenditure and restructuring substantially complete end 2009 Two new long life, globally significant production streams constitute majority of production from 2011 Jacinth-Ambrosia - ~25% of global zircon production - 10 year+ economic life - 55 thousand sq kms of exploration tenements - 1 st production early 2010 Murray Basin - major rutile province - zircon production stream - 15 year economic life - 30 thousand sq kms of exploration tenements - Stage 2 commissioning/1 st HMC produced Reliance on Western Australian production diminishes - processing of J-A concentrate - synthetic rutile (ilmenite upgrading) centre - limited mining - latent capacity in zircon and TiO2-50%+ capacity idled; 50% employee reduction 6

7 Mineral Sands Price Relativities Historical Iluka Prices to 2007 (TZMI 2008) US$/tonne FOB Historical Pricing Iluka Average Prices TZMI Forecast Chloride Ilmenite Sulphate Ilmenite Rutile SR Premium Zircon Price forecasts from TZMI these prices do not necessarily reflect Iluka 2008 prices

8 Transformation of the Portfolio Integrated set of mining, upgrading and processing assets 1 Expected to complete 2011 with Douglas MUP/WCP decommissioned/redeployed 2 Expected to complete 2013 with Concord MUP/WCP decommissioned/redeployed 3 Potential mine development, subject to Board approval. Indicative timing: 2013 commencement 4 Expected to constitute latent mining capacity with minimal, if any, mining activity occurring in Mid West from the end of Additional SR capacity available with two idled kilns in the Mid West of Western Australia 8

9 Transformation of Portfolio Jacinth-Ambrosia Example Major source of zircon HMC production Largest new zircon production source for over 30 years Brownfields development utilising processing capacity freed up by winding back lower margin Western Australian production Capex expected to be less than A$400 million (budget A$420 million); 6 months early Phased ramp up in 2010, given demand recovery from GEC and winding down of WA mining 300 thousand tonnes of zircon production pa potential 9

10 Recent Progress David Robb commenced late 2006 ex Wesfarmers and BP Alignment to shareholder interests prime objective remuneration arrangements linked to RoC/RoE, TSR culture change and commerciality focus Internal analytical abilities enhanced business development and analysis resourcing bottom up integrated planning detailed mineral sands pricing/end demand analysis customer and product segmentation analysis Balance sheet restoration debt refinanced with maturity profile extended past new project cash flows pro rata entitlement offer (A$345 million) May 2008 institutional placement (A$114 million) May 2009 net debt expected to peak in 2009 (between A$ m) facilities of A$640m 10

11 Recent Progress New project execution well advanced Murray Basin Stage 2 (integrated with existing MSP) Jacinth-Ambrosia commissioning end 2009 capex of combined projects within budget Western Australian asset reconfiguration largely complete Significant reduction in 1 st half demand reduction in supply in context of GEC accelerated transformation of asset base 2009 very low sales in historical context Marketing supply and pricing disciplines idled 2 of 4 SR kilns price increases for zircon in 2008 and 2009 (YTD) successful China marketing strategy greater flexibility in zircon pricing and contractual arrangement 11

12 Iluka s Industry Position #1 global producer of zircon; major source of new supply #2 global producer of titanium dioxide feedstocks; latent upgrading capacity Significant 2008 market share position in the high value products of rutile (34%), synthetic rutile (62%) and chloride ilmenite (42%) Major Zircon and Titanium Dioxide Feedstock Producers, 2008 Iluka s Position Includes CRL s Contribution Divested May 2009 Zircon Titanium Dioxide Feedstock Iluka (2) 34% Exxaro (3) 15% Rio Tinto (1) 9% BHP Billiton 9% Bemax 4% DuPont 3% Tiwest JV 2% Other 24% Rio Tinto (1) 22% Iluka (2) 18% Exxaro (3) 7% BHP Billiton 6% Bemax 4% Tinfos 3% Tiwest JV 2% DuPont 1% Other 37% Source: Iluka supply estimates. Note Iluka s 2008 zircon sales volumes exceeded production significantly (1) Titanium slag products of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are currently marketed by Rio Tinto (2) Includes 100% of CRL output which Iluka markets on CRL s behalf (3) Exxaro has a 50% interest in the Tiwest JV 12

13 Supply and Demand Factors Iluka s inducement analysis suggests very few planned/mooted mineral sands projects rationally incentivised at current pricing levels Titanium Dioxide Global pigment demand correlated with GDP China a major importer of chloride pigment Pigment intensity of use lower in developing countries - ~20% of developed economies High grade TiO2 supply (rutile) considered tight Growing specialist uses titanium metal, welding etc Zircon Ceramic demand in urbanising economies significant China predominantly import reliant 15%+ pa growth No effective substitutes for zircon 13

14 Titanium Pigment Trends vs Regional GDP/capita ( ) Pigment (kg) / person 5 4 North America 3 2 Western Europe Japan Asia 1 0 China World 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 India Note: Real GDP / Capita calculated on PPP, constant 2008US$ basis. Source: TZMI, IMF, Iluka Analysis Real GDP / Capita (US$) 14

15 Titanium Pigment Trends Rio s Model for Developing Economies Infrastructure Based Growth Urbanisation 2007 Population distribution in bands of income levels** Average Wealth per capita in PPP terms Inflection Point for growth phase Source Rio Tinto TZMI Conference Singapore 15

16 Zircon Consumption Trends Rest of World vs China Growth Zircon (kt) World China Rest of World CAGR = 3.6% CAGR = 2.8% CAGR = 1.5% CAGR = 17.9% * 2008 Iluka estimate Source: Analysis based on TZMI sourced data 16

17 Industry Zircon:TiO2 Ratio Iluka Constitutes the Main Industry Supply Source of Zircon mt of TiO2 or Zircon TiO2 Historical Supply Zircon Historical Supply Ratio t Zircon/t TiO Zircon/TiO2 Ratio All Feedstock Producers (including J-A) Zircon/TiO2 Ratio Excluding Iluka F Source: TZMI and Iluka analysis Decline in zircon:tio2 ratio forecast from existing producers (excluding Iluka) Despite Jacinth-Ambrosia (largest new supply source in 30 years) industry zircon:tio2 ratio remains stable 17

18 China Zircon Import Data Monthly China Zircon Data tonnes 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 400, , , , , , ,000 50, Cum 08 Cum 09 Cum Source: Iluka analysis of China import data, October 2009 August 2009 import levels running at pre GEC average monthly levels No evidence of restocking phase as yet in mineral sands North America and Europe constitute ~2/3 rds of global market Incipient signs of recovery in these markets; pace of demand recovery dependent on economic recovery 18

19 Commodity Prices 1990 to 2009, US$, Index 2004= Index 2004= Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Gold (US$/oz) Copper (US$/t) Nickel (US$/t) Zinc (US$/t) Lead (US$/t) Rutile (US$/t Aus. FOB) Zircon (US$/t Aus. FOB) Silver (US$/oz) Source: TZMI and Bloomberg Notes: Monthly average prices, zircon and rutile annual average prior to

20 Emerging Characteristics of Iluka Company/asset base transformation largely complete Consequently, project execution and balance sheet risk are reducing Financial characteristics of company should markedly improve 2011 onwards higher margin production lower capex balance sheet flexibility Shape of 2010 financial year dependent on pace of global /demand recovery Supply/demand dynamics positive in mineral sands Favourable market position in zircon and high grade TiO2 20

21 Iluka Resources Limited For further information, contact: Dr Robert Porter General Manager, Investor Relations ; + 61 (0) robert.porter@iluka.com 21

22 Opportunities The following are some opportunities inherent within the Iluka portfolio to create additional value for shareholders. They do not include factors such as further exploration success nor factors that may stimulate a step change in external demand for Iluka s products (for example, China adopting chloride pigment technology on lower conversion costs in the manufacture of titanium metal). Potential Opportunity Potential to achieve additional zircon sales if demand and margin outcomes warrant Potential to achieve additional high grade TiO2 (primarily SR) sales if market demand and pricing outcomes warrant Market development/technology development opportunities Iluka Commentary Iluka has the potential to produce additional zircon volumes if demand recovery and/or overall industry supply conditions warrant. This additional production could be sourced from increased processing capacity and production from Jacinth- Ambrosia and/or re-activated idled mining assets in the Mid West of Western Australia Iluka has two idled SR kilns. Given suitable feed source arrangements and an appropriate financial incentive these kilns could be re-activated in a relatively short period of time. Innovation opportunities associated with the recent creation of the role of General Manager, Product and Technical Development will include considering means to utilise idled capacity, as well as a focus on product offer enhancements to expand markets. 22

23 Risks The following can be expected to be some of the principal risks to Iluka s business. It is not designed to be comprehensive but to provide existing and potential shareholders with some appreciation of the risks that management consider in managing the business. Iluka s for 7 pro-rata entitlement share offer prospectus includes a detailed listing of Key Risk factors which investors are encouraged to consult this document. Refer Iluka website Potential Risk Appreciation and continued strength of the AUD against the USD adversely affects Iluka s financial performance >90% of Iluka s sales revenue is denominated in USD Reduction in demand / weakness in demand recovery A further global or regional economic slowdown could (as in 2009) adversely affect demand for Iluka s products. Mineral sands products typically display a high correlation with GDP growth rates. New supply from other sources adversely affecting pricing outcomes or demand for Iluka s products Iluka Commentary Iluka expects to improve the margin structure of its business and, over time, its balance sheet strength by reducing debt. Furthermore, the company now generally adopts shorter dated contractual terms for zircon sales, which allows pricing movements in response to currency movements. These factors are expected to provide the Iluka portfolio with greater robustness and flexibility to deal with exchange rate influences on the business. Potential supply responses (as in 2009) to attempt to better match supply with demand although (as in 2009), this can be expected to have an adverse revenue impact. New supply sources remain, as with any industry, a threat to existing producers. Iluka monitors new supply sources, including conducting inducement analysis of all known prospective sources of mineral sands supply. This analysis suggest that there are limited new, high quality or material sources of high grade TiO2 and zircon production which would, rationally, be induced at current prices. 23

24 Risks (continued) Potential Risk Substitution or thrifting of use of mineral sands products in end applications Funding capacity to complete new projects / banking covenants Inventory levels in zircon and potential adverse impact on pricing outcomes Iluka Commentary This has remained a risk to mineral sands demand and there is no compelling evidence of other comprehensively suitable substitutable alternatives in the main end use applications (TiO2 in pigment and zircon in ceramics) which display superior characteristics in the one form to titanium dioxide and zircon. Iluka advised, via ASX release on 19 August 2009 that based on production and sales assumptions provided at that time that it expected 2009 year end debt to be between $ million, within the total facilities of ~$640 million. This outcome remains dependent on sales outcomes; currency levels and final project expenditures. Iluka has advised, based on its expected 2009 sales volumes, that it expects to end 2009 with higher than usual zircon inventory levels and with minimal inventory levels of rutile and synthetic rutile. It is Iluka s intention to manage its supply of zircon into the market, as demand continues to recover, in a disciplined manner. 24