Archaeological Predictive Modeling within the context of Paleo-river Terraces in the City of Prince George
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1 Archaeological Predictive Modeling within the context of Paleo-river Terraces in the City of Prince George Background The documented pre-contact archaeological record of the Interior Plateau of B.C. is sparse. However, human habitation is at least as old as 9,000 to 10,000 years before present (BP). Sites in the interior of the province from this time period include: Charlie Lake Cave near Fort St. John, dated to 10,700 BP; the Miliken site in the Fraser Canyon dating to 9,000 BP; the Gore Creek site near Kamloops, dating to 8,250 BP, as well as a recent excavation in Prince George with a basal date of 9,700 BP. These early sites were probably used by mobile hunter-gather peoples as it is thought semi-permanent villages were not established until environmental and riverine stabilization. Projectile Point: Plateau Pithouse Tradtion Research Problem & Objective GIS archaeologists frequently use the proximity to streams, lakes and rivers as a primary variable in the development of site predictive models. Topographical data used for the location of these streams, lakes and rivers is recent and does do include changes in location over time. The paleo-environment was significantly different compared to what it is today. Over the last 10,000 years, sea level changes, glacial run-off stabilization, landslides, river erosion and movement, have all functioned to change the environment and site potential for early peoples. The variables commonly utilized in archaeological predictive models include biogeoclimatic zones, topography, proximity to water, aspect, drainage, elevation and proximity to known archaeological sites and historic settlements. However, many of these variables have been in fluctuation over the last 10,000 years and have not been consistent through time. Without additional data to estimate the paleo-environment, archaeological sites older than the last 400 to 500 years may not fall within current archaeological models. Archaeological predictive modeling must take the paleoenvironment into consideration, however without available data, this is a daunting macro-analysis of topography. However, paleo-river terraces maybe an obtainable factor for modeling. The city Fraser River Terraces in Prince George of Prince George provides such an opportunity in an albeit urban setting. The 9,700 year old site in the city of Prince George is located on a terrace, approximately 40m above the Fraser River. This project will put an archaeological predictive model in the context of paleo-river terraces.
2 Study Area & Data Sources The area of interest is the City of Prince George. Data was downloaded from the City of Prince Open Data Catalogue ( as well as extracted from the UNBC data archive. Methodology & Model Development Three key steps were required in this project: 1. Produce archaeological predictive model for the city of Prince George. 2. Determine the paleo-river terracing for the city of Prince George 3. Overlay paleo-river terracing to the archaeological predictive model to expand context. Archaeological Predictive Model Based on the Archaeological Overview Assessment: Interim Report of the Prince George Forest District by I.R.Wilson Consultants (2010) and Predictive Modeling in the Manitoba Model Forest by David Ebert (2001), an analysis methodology and modeling schema was devised. Selection of archaeological site criteria was based on generalized site preferences, in particular location to water. Description Weighted Value Weight Value SLOPE SS > ASPECT N NE E SE S SW W NW 292.6V Flat Four primary variables were chosen as key indicator of the potential of locating archaeological sites: distance from rivers, slope, aspect and distance from streams (see Table 1). For the reasons discussed in the research problem regarding the paleo-environment, other potential variables used in previous models such as soil type, vegetation, proximity to rivers with anadromous fish (salmon, steelhead, et cetera) were excluded. Table 1: Variables & Weighted Values WATER PROXIMITY 50m (100%) 100m (90%) 250m (80%) 500m(70%) Rivers Streams N/A N/A The Methodology Schematic (see Figure 1) provides an overview of the research method process. Shapefiles for river and stream features classes, and a 25m LiDAR based digital elevation model (DEM) were obtained. Higher resolution DEMs were available, but proved to be to slow in data processing. Slope and aspect rasters were derived from the DEM. Euclidian distance rasters were created from each of the three primary variable feature classes. These rasters were then reclassified, further distinguishing these variables into sub- categories and assigned a value from 0 to 5, according the model schema weighting tables (see Table 1).
3 Figure 1. Model Schematic A weighted sum analysis was then performed on the four re-classified variables, applying generalized category weight to each of these categories. This produced a weighted raster with a range of values from 40 to 160. This raster was reclassified using 1 2 standard deviation as break points: was determined to be high, was medium, and was low. Values below 77.2 were classified as NoData. Paleo River Terraces There has not been much research on paleo terraces in the Prince George area. According to Brian Menounos of the UNBC Department of Geography, dating terraces or even river erosion is problematic and complex due to the multitude of unknown and highly variable factors such as fluvial flow rates and sediment loads. However, through analysis of the paleo-rivers in respect to known sites, one should be able to make further predictions The hillshade of the city of Prince George derived from 1m LiDAR data, river terraces are easily seen. Documented archaeological sites were overlaid onto the contours to determine elevations of potential terraces. Terrace heights were delineated from the more precise 1m LiDAR data, to be between m, m, m and 582 to m. These were then reclassified in raster form. Figure 2: Changing position of archaeological site in relation to river.
4 Results Discussion & Conclusion Attached is the resulting final model, detailing areas of high, medium and low archaeological probability, as well as paleo-river terraces. Generally, the results match areas of documented archaeological sites, primarily along the west side of the Fraser River. The large inset map shows an area of dense archaeological activity along the Fraser River. The 9,700 year old site is located at an average elevation of 583m, the highest paleo-river terrace in dark green. Well, we cannot guess exactly where the river was at this time, the outline of the dark green area provides a guide to search for significantly old sites. To the other extreme, there is a large site, undated, in the very lowest terrace tier m. I would predict that this site is significantly younger, perhaps the last 500 years, than other sites. It is important to note, that most of the potential paleo-river terrace zones are under developed city areas and long since lost to fieldwork or cultural resource investigation. Four primary variables were chosen as key indicator of the potential of locating archaeological sites: distance from rivers, slope, aspect and distance from streams (see Table 1). For the reasons discussed in the research problem regarding the paleo-environment, other potential variables used in previous models such as soil type, vegetation, proximity to rivers with anadromous fish (salmon, steelhead, et cetera) were excluded. This is by no means an exact science. Reconstructing archaeological lifeways and the paleoenvironment is sometimes based on assumptions. The use of paleo-river terraces provides another source of data from which to make better archaeological predictive models. References Barnable, Stuart K Archaeological Overview Assessment: Proposed Airport Logistics Pakr, Prince George Ecofor Consluting Ltd. Ebert, David 2001 Predictive Modeling in the Manitoba Model Forest: A Summary of the MbMF APMP geog I.R. Wislon Consultants Ltd Archaeological Overview Assessment Interim Report: Archaeological Predictive Model of the Prince George Forest District. I
5 Archaeological Predictive Modelling in the context of Paleo River Terraces in the City of Prince George Archaeological Predictive Model Overlay >>> Paleo River Terrace Overlay Fras er R 0 10 Km iver Legend City Limit Paleo River Terraces Archaeological Potential Highway m Low Road m Medium Creek m High Building m Documented Site River m m. Produced by UNBC Department of Geography March 29, Km
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