Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in Seismically Active Areas

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1 Interdisciplinary Framework to Reveal Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in Seismically Active Areas D.Ouzounov 1,2, S.Pulinets 3, M.Kafatos 1, P.Taylor 2 1 Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA 2 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA, 3 Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow, Russia, 4 Sensor Web Approach for Earthquake studies (Taiwan) TIR Anomaly associated with Wenchuan M7.9,May 12th, 2008 earthquake TIR Anomaly associated with Abruzzo (Italy) M6.3 earthquake

2 2 Contents 1. Earthquake precursory phenomena 2. Hot-spot alerts around M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake China Joint Model Space Terrestrial Framework. 4. Summary

3 Source of the Natural Hazards and Early Warning Systems YES YES Planning Disaster Management Cycle Mitigation Recovery YES YES YES YES YES Response YES YES --

4 Map of earthquake early-warning systems Map showing the locations of earthquake early-warning systems currently in operation (blue) or development (green) around the world. Operational systems include Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Turkey. Systems are in development for California, Egypt, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Switzerland. The locations are overlaid on the GSHAP global seismic hazard map (Giardini et al., 1999). (After Allen, 2007) sec lead time

5 List of possible earthquake precursors 5 Planetary positions Ground deformations Geomagnetic methods Energy accumulation rate Earthquake clouds Gravity anomalies Ground water level Radon concentrations Meteorological conditions Thermal infrared Infrasound Crustal stress Abnormal behaviour of animals Geo-electric pulse Historical/statistical data Ground-based EM field Tilt meters GPS TGFR MS-Double Time Method Geo-electricity Micro-vibration Earth resistivity Geochemistry Seismic gap Foreshocks Geodesy Micro-changes Ionosphere After Vandergeden(2005)

6 ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN 6

7 Earthquake precursor science now 7 It is a Thermal anomaly! It is GPS/TEC anomaly! EQ precursor processes It is a Seismic precursor! It is a Rn anomaly! It is a ULF signal! It is a SES natural time!

8 8 Methodology of the precursory signals we are investigating as part of the Sensor Web Geophysical signature Source Data Thermal infrared MODIS, AIRS LST, SST NOAA/AVHRR 15,16,17 OLR Surface heat flux NCAR-data center SLHF Total Electron Content GPS Dual frequencies Ionospheric variability DEMETER VLF/ELF, Te, Ne, Ni, Ti, Radon concentrations ground measurements Gamma Meteorological information MODIS,GOES, METEOSAT RGB, Cloud data TIR- thermal infrared, LST-Land surface temperature, SST- Sea surface temperature, OLR Ongoing long wave radiation, NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research.

9 Hot-spot alerts around M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake China 2008 May 6th (-6 days)- an internal EQ Alert#1 May 16th (-2 days) EQ Alert#2, M6.0 has occurred on May 17 th May 23rd (-2 days) EQ Alert#3, M5.8 has occurred on May 25 th 9 6th May 12th May 12th May 16th May Time-series of daily day-time radiation for (left to right) -(1)May 6th,(2)12th, (3) USGS map for (4)16 th of May over the West Sichuan province (Ouzounov et al, 2008)

10 Hot spot maps of daily TIR earth outgoing radiation over the epicenter of M7.8 Eastern Sichuan earthquake, China May 5- May 16, 2008 Alert 1 05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May (Ouzounov et al, 2008) Alert 2

11 Map of GPS DTEC (SHAO) around the time of M7.8 Eastern Sichuan earthquake, China May 5- May 16, 2008

12 Schematic presentation of the LAIC model (v.2009) 12 OLR anomalies Air temperature growth Air pressure drop Earthquake clouds formation Electric field effects within the ionosphere Latent heat release Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EF Atmospheric electric field growth Humidity drop Ions hydration formation of aerosol size particles Air conductivity change Air ionization by α-particles product of radon decay Faults activation permeability changes Gas discharges including radon emanation Pulinets et al, 2008

13 Where we are now? Methodology of the precursory signals we are investigating Geophysical signature/ Source/Example 13 Thermal infrared NOAA/AVHRR,AQUA/AIRS OLR Jet Stream Current NOAA Clouds information MODIS,GOES, METEOSAT ä åêàáð ÿ 2004 ã. 1 2:30 GMT Total Electron Content GPS, Dual frequencies 0 Ionospheric variability DMSP,DEMETER-VLF/ELF, Te, Ne, Ni, Ti EQ

14 How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space 14

15 How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space 15

16 How good we are in the reading of Earth processes from Space Joint Model Space Terrestrial Framework (JMSTF) 16 Satellite Sensor Satellite Sensor Satellite Sensor Satellite Sensor Detection LAIC Mechanism Data Mining Modeling Monitoring Alerting Ground Sensor Ground Sensor Ground Sensor Ground Sensor

17 Case studies of TIR- earthquake analysis (hind casting mode) 200 M>5.0 (TIR,OLR,GPS/TEC, OLR, SLHF,T/H,DEMETER) 17 Global analysis of OLR variability prior to major earthquakes Name Date M, H,(km) EQ mechanism OLRAnomaly W/m -2 Detection time,days Toll Bhuj, Gujarat India 01/26/ Thrust Fault ,000 Southeastern Iran 12/26/ Strike-slip fault ,000 Kashmir Pakistan 10/15/ Strike ,000 Andama.Sumatra, 12/26/ Mega trust ,000

18 Abruzzo M6.3 Earthquake, Italy, April 6, Time=10*Days Jan 01-April30, D Plot of NOAA/AVHRR OLR (at 300mb) Jan 1- April 30, x1 degree over the epicentral area, (Longitudinal lock on 12.5E)

19 Summary 19 Our Satellite analysis detected in advance to the Wenchuan earthquake the following signals: Thermal Anomaly on May 6th (-6 days): Ionospheric TEC anomaly on May 9 th (3-days) Using the fundamental principles of atmospheric physics the LAIC model was updated in order to explain the most of the atmospheric thermal and ionospheric variations observed before the earthquakes Practical applications could be build for automatic identification of the earthquake precursors; Why we need International cooperation within IDRC: The complex and dynamic nature of the earthquake hazard risk on global scale requires spatial, spectral, and temporal coverage that is far beyond any single method and satellite mission.

20 Validation of earthquake precursors VESTO 2009 March 26-28, Chiba, Japan Thank you!

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