Late Quaternary changes in the terrestrial biosphere: causes and consequences
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1 Late Quaternary changes in the terrestrial biosphere: causes and consequences Mats Rundgren Department of Geology Quaternary Sciences Lund University NGEN
2 The global carbon cycle CO 2 Ocean Marshak, 2001
3 Direct measurements of atmospheric CO 2 concentration Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (
4 Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 1000 years
5 Changes in CO 2 concentration over the past years
6 Changes in the concentration of CO 2 and CH 4 over the past years and projections for the future
7 Earth s climate system Ruddiman, 2001
8 Orbital effects on insolation and climate Marshak, 2001
9 Phasing of changes in the climate system and carbon cycle over the past years
10 The terrestrial biosphere Two components: vegetation and soils Regulates the fluxes of energy, water and aerosols between Earth s surface and the atmosphere Central to the biogeochemistry of the planet (especially C and N cycles) Involved in biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks lmportant and complex component of the climate system
11 Why look into the past? To assess how the terrestrial biosphere will respond to future climate change, we need to understand how it has responded and interacted in the past Information on biospheric responses on decadal and longer timescales Information on biosphere dynamics associated with large climatic changes and in absence of anthropogenic influences Data to test process-based models
12 Biogeochemical roles of the terrestrial biosphere May contribute to glacial-interglacial CO 2 changes (mainly caused by oceanic processes) Major control of glacial-interglacial CH 4 changes (wetlands: distribution and hydrological status) Important cause of Holocene CO 2 and CH 4 variations (vegetation: distribution and net primary production; soils and wetlands: hydrological status) Important for global climatic conditions
13 Biophysical roles of the terrestrial biosphere Vegetation influence on land-surface albedo Vegetation influence on water availability Vegetation influence on surface roughness Important for climatic conditions on local, regional and global scales
14 Examples of positive feedbacks involving vegetation Ruddiman, 2001
15 Biological responses to climatic variations, and methods to study them Changes in productivity/growth or death: dendroclimatology (tree rings) Changes in population size: palaeoecology (microfossils, macrofossils and megafossils) Changes in community composition: palaeoecology Species migration: palaeoecology Changes through evolution Extinction
16 Dendroclimatology Ruddiman, 2001
17 Palaeoecology: examples of studied organisms Plant macrofossils Pollen Chironomids Diatoms
18 Changes in population size and community composition Spruce Birch Aspen Juniper Alder Willow Bog myrtle Mugwort/Wormwood Grasses Ritchie (1985)
19 Species migration Frequency of oak (Quercus) pollen 13 ka 11 ka Frequency of lime (Tilia) pollen 10 ka 9 ka 9 ka 7 ka 8 ka 6 ka Bennett (1997), after Huntley & Birks (1983)
20 Species migration 2000 years ago 1000 years ago present Spruce (Picea) Beech (Fagus)
21 Extinction Willis & Niklas (2004)
22 Extinction Ruddiman, 2001 Guthrie (2006) Johnson (2009)
23 Capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to keep pace with climate change Varies across temporal scales Short-term (years) climatic fluctuations often invoke only minor or no responses (if limited in amplitude; in long-lived organisms) Intermediate (decades-centuries) rates of climate change cause complex non-equilibrium responses (some parts of the system respond immediately, others lag behind) Slow (millennia and longer) variations in climate: dynamic equilibrium (terrestrial biosphere keeps pace with climate change); results in biospheric feedbacks on climate change
24 Biospheric responses to glacialinterglacial cycles Species respond individualistically and in dynamic equilibrium with climate (migration) Repeated formation and break-up of biomes Specialization of taxa (migrational strategies, adaption) Elimination of species that are unable to adapt, unable to migrate, or rare (extinction) Limited speciation (too short time within cycles for directional adaptive evolution?) Less dramatic biogeographic shifts in mountain areas (suitable conditions available locally) Changes in carbon storage by vegetation and soils
25 Vegetation responses on glacialinterglacial timescales Ruddiman, 2001
26 Environmental conditions and biomes during the last glacial maximum Hewitt (2000)
27 European vegetation at present and during the last glacial maximum Ruddiman (2001)
28 The glacial-interglacial cycle of ecosystem development
29 CO 2, temperature and CH 4 over the past four glacial-interglacial cycles
30 Glacial-interglacial changes in CH 4 and low-latitude insolation Ruddiman (2003) Ruddiman (2001)
31 Hypotheses to explain CH 4 changes during glacial-interglacial cycles Orbitally forced changes in low-latitude monsoon strength resulting in variable distribution and status (wet/dry) of wetlands Orbitally forced changes in high-latitude temperatures resulting in variable CH 4 production in wetlands Orbitally forced changes in high-latitude temperatures resulting in melting/freezing of permafrost in wetlands and variable CH 4 emissions Methane hydrates?
32 Biospheric responses to climate changes on millennial timescales Regional shifts in species distributions Changes in community composition Changes in carbon storage by vegetation and soils
33 European vegetation development since the last glacial maximum Distribution of vegetation units based on pollen data Huntley (1990)
34 Millennial-scale CH 4 variations during the last glacial period and deglaciation Ruddiman, 2001
35 Millennial-scale changes in CH 4 during the Holocene Raynaud et al. (2000)
36 Peat initiation in circumarctic peatlands (MacDonald et al., 2006)
37 Timing of Holocene peatland establishment and CH 4 concentrations MacDonald et al. (2006)
38 Long-term Holocene increases in CO 2 and CH 4 : natural or anthropogenic? Ruddiman, 2003
39 Millennial-scale CO 2 and carbon cycle changes during the Holocene Ice core data Inverse modelling results Elsig et al. (2009)
40 Biospheric responses to climate changes on sub-millennial timescales Reproduction, growth and mortality of individual plants and species Changes in community composition Changes in carbon storage by vegetation and soils
41 Siberian larch Temperaturerelated growth changes on sub-millennial timescales Mongolian larch Ruddiman, 2001
42 Changes in forest composition on submillennial timescales Tinner & Lotter, 2001
43 Sub-millennial CH 4 changes during the Holocene Spahni et al., 2003
44 Sub-millennial CH 4 changes during the Holocene Ferretti et al., 2005
45 Sub-millennial CO 2 changes during the Holocene Reconstructed CO 2 (ice cores) Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature Masson-Delmotte et al. (2013), IPCC AR5, WGI
46 The terrestrial biosphere: concluding remarks Responds to climatic changes on a variety of timescales Influences other parts of the climate system through biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks Influenced directly by atmospheric CO 2 concentration (net primary production, water-use efficiency) Important and complex component of the climate system
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