SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

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1 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary Materials and Methods Stable isotope analyses Where possible two or three separate analyses of different benthic species were made in each sample; a correction factor was applied according to the species and the average of all the corrected values at each level is shown in the figures. The following species were analysed, and adjusted as indicated: Cibicidoides sp.: +0.51; Uvigerina peregrina and similar specimens: 0.0; Globobulimina affinis: -0.4; Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, +0.64; Globocassidulina sp.: -0.1; Hoeglundina elegans: These adjustments are optimized for this particular core in accordance with the long-standing convention by which Uvigerina peregrina is assumed to deposit oxygen in isotopic equilibrium. Analytical procedures and reproducibility are described in ref. 1. Pollen analysis Pollen identification was carried out to the lowest possible taxonomic level, and nomenclature follows Flora Europaea 2. Pinus is conventionally excluded from the main sum, as it is strongly over-represented in marine sediments because of its extensive dispersal ability and buoyancy 3. Pollen studies from continental shelf sequences suggest that palynomorph transport to these areas is controlled primarily by fluvial and secondarily by aeolian processes 4. Studies on modern pollen deposition in fluvial systems, considering the transfer of pollen from vegetation to the channel, transport in the channel and deposition in coastal waters, indicate the rapid incorporation of pollen to marine sediments 4. Rather than single-particle settling from suspension, which would take more than a year and lead to distant transport by marine nature geoscience 1

2 currents, the primary mechanism for pollen deposition is through aggregation or incorporation into faecal pellets of zooplankton, leading to much faster rates of deposition 5. In the southern Portuguese margin, aeolian pollen transport is limited by the direction of the prevailing offshore winds and pollen is mainly transported to the abyssal site by the sediments carried by the Tagus river 6,7. Comparison of modern marine and terrestrial samples along western Iberia has shown that the marine pollen assemblages provide an integrated picture of the regional vegetation of the adjacent continent 7. Moreover, modern biogeographical differences in the distribution of Atlantic and Mediterranean plant communities are reflected in the palynological signal of northern and southern marine pollen spectra, respectively 7. With regard to past variability, work on marine sequences in the western Iberian margin has established the integrity of the marine pollen signal through (i) comparisons with Holocene terrestrial sites 7,8 ; (ii) the presence of consistent patterns of ecological succession in the pollen timeseries 9. In MD , the coherence of the pollen and marine isotope signals and their similarity to Greenland ice core records (e.g. Fig. S5) during the centennial to millennial climate oscillations of the last glacial argue against any significant reworking of non-contemporaneous material. Definition of AIM amplitude and stadial duration The amplitude of Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) was determined from the δd maximum to the preceding minimum of each event (indicated by horizontal bars in Figs S5d and S6c) in the EDC ice core record 10. It is important to note that the last and penultimate glacial sections in the EDC record have different resolution due to ice layer thinning with increasing depth, which may result in artificially lower amplitude changes in the latter interval. More specifically, the mean sampling interval for the last glacial section in Fig. S5 (31-64 kyr BP) is 48.6 years, 2 nature geoscience

3 while for the penultimate glacial section in Fig. S6 ( kyr BP) it is years. In order to ensure comparability between the two intervals, the EDC δd record (blue curve in Fig. S5d) from the last glacial section was smoothed using a 3-point simple moving window averaging (the red curve in Fig. S5d). The amplitude of the AIM was then determined using the smoothed record for the last glacial. The duration of North Atlantic stadials during the last glacial (indicated by arrows in Fig. S5) was defined as the interval between the mid-point of the stadial transitions in the δ 18 O of ice in the NGRIP record 11, using the GICC05 chronology 12. For the abrupt stadial-to-interstadial transitions, this was immediately visible. For the less abrupt interstadial-to-stadial transitions, we used the mid-point between local maxima and minima. Our definition of stadial duration and those of EPICA members (ref. 13) match for the interval of overlap. An alternative and independent method to calculate duration is to use the interval from the Antarctic δd maximum to the preceding minimum of each AIM event in the EDC ice core record (i.e. the duration of warming in Antarctica). The mean difference between the two methods is 192 years (min. 22; max. 366). This is significantly lower than the chronological uncertainty of layer counting in NGRIP 12 (~900 yrs at 29 kyr BP and ~2600 yrs at 60 kyr BP). Here, we have used the results of the first approach to estimate stadial duration during the last glacial, except for AIM17 where we used the duration of Antarctic warming, since the NGRIP GICC05 chronology 12 does not extend prior to 60 kyr BP. Figure S5 shows the close similarity between the NGRIP δ 18 O ice and MD δ 18 O planktonic records, already noted in this area 1. It also underlines the marked correspondence between these records and temperate tree pollen percentages from MD , which suggests synchronous changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the North Atlantic. In the nature geoscience 3

4 absence of a Greenland ice record for MIS6, one approach to estimate stadial duration during MIS6 is to use the interval between the mid-point of the stadial transitions in the MD δ 18 O planktonic record, supported by temperate tree pollen percentages (indicated by arrows in Fig. S6). The extent to which this is an accurate reflection of true stadial duration during the penultimate glacial depends on the timescale of MD As discussed in the method section of the manuscript, the MIS6 timescale is based on aligning the MD δ 18 O benthic record to the Antarctic EDC δd record 10, using a minimum tuning approach. It is possible that small variations in the phasing between the two records could result in differences in stadial duration and bias the conclusions of the analysis of amplitude vs. duration. An alternative way to estimate stadial duration is again to use the interval from the Antarctic δd maximum to the preceding minimum of each AIM event in the EDC ice core record. For the penultimate glacial, we have opted to use the second approach (i.e. the interval of Antarctic warming) to estimate stadial duration as this is just a function of the EDC chronology and circumvents any uncertainties arising from the alignment of the EDC and MD records. The mean difference between the two methods is 205 years (min. 52; max. 409), which is less than the sampling resolution of the MIS6 section of the MD sequence. In summary, the estimation of stadial duration for MIS3 and MIS6 uses the best available chronology for each interval. Comparison of the two approaches (duration of North Atlantic stadials in NGRIP/MD vs. duration of Antarctic warming in EDC; Fig. S7) shows no systematic bias, i.e. one method does not systematically overestimate duration compared to the other; the coefficient of covariation r 2 is nature geoscience

5 Simulating the thermal bipolar see-saw response The response of Antarctic temperature to AMOC perturbations during Greenland stadials can be simulated using a simple conceptual model of the bipolar see-saw, as formulated for example by ref. 14, or using a more complex representation of the climate system such as the CLIMBER2 Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity 15. As shown in Fig. S8, both of these approaches confirm that: (i) the response of Antarctic temperature following a reduction/collapse of the AMOC is approximately one of exponentially decaying growth (reaching an asymptote of Antarctic temperature that is in equilibrium with the new AMOC configuration); and (ii) the time-constant (τ) associated with the Antarctic response is approximately 1,000 years, such that half of the response is achieved within ~ 700 years (t 1/2 = τ ln{2}). A linear relationship between stadial duration and Antarctic event amplitude 13 is not predicted by either type of model, and is only possible within this conceptual framework if stadial duration and stadial amplitude (i.e. the extent of AMOC perturbation) also scale positively. The exponential response and its approximate timescale are therefore important clues as to the sensitivity and variability of the AMOC. The same is true of the Antarctic temperature asymptote that is ultimately reached after a perturbation of the AMOC. A higher asymptote indicates a bigger change in AMOC heat transport, and vice versa. This is also illustrated in Fig. S8, where a simulation of a complete shutdown of the AMOC using CLIMBER2 ultimately results in approximately twice as much Antarctic warming as a simulation of a halving of the AMOC 15. Similarly, in the simple bipolar see-saw model the Antarctic temperature asymptote is defined by the amplitude of North Atlantic cooling, resulting in greater Antarctic warming for a more intense stadial of a given duration. In Figure 4 of the manuscript we show that our proxy data confirm all of these hypothesised aspects of the bipolar see-saw system. nature geoscience 5

6 Supplementary References 1. Shackleton, N. J., Hall, M. A. & Vincent, E. Phase relationships between millennialscale events 64,000-24,000 years ago. Paleoceanography 15, (2000). 2. Tutin, T. G. et al. Flora Europaea (Cambridge University Press, ). 3. Hopkins, J. Different flotation and deposition of conifer and deciduous pollen. Ecology 31, (1950). 4. Chmura, G.L., Smirov, A. & Campbell, I.D. Pollen transport trough distributaries and depositional patterns in coastal waters. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 149, (1999). 5. Mudie, P. J. & McCarthy, F. M. G. Late Quaternary pollen transport processes, western North Atlantic : data from box models, cross-margin and N-S transects. Marine Geology 118, (1994). 6. Sánchez Goñi, M. F., Turon, J.-L., Eynaud, F. & Gendreau, S. European climatic response to millennial-scale changes in the atmosphere-ocean system during the last glacial period. Quaternary Research 54, (2000). 7. Naughton, F. et al. Present-day and past (last years) marine pollen signal off western Iberia. Marine Micropaleontology 62, (2007). 8. K. H. Roucoux, Millennial-scale vegetation and climate variability in north-west Iberia during the last glacial stage. PhD Thesis, University of Cambridge (2000). 9. Roucoux, K. H., de Abreu, L., Shackleton, N. J. & Tzedakis, P. C. The response of NW Iberian vegetation to North Atlantic climate oscillations during the last 65 kyr. Quaternary Science Reviews 25, (2005). 10. Jouzel, J. et al. Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317, (2007). 6 nature geoscience

7 11. North Greenland Ice Core Project members. High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature 431, (2004). 12. Svensson, A. et al. A 60,000 year Greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology. Climates of the Past 4, (2008). 13. EPICA community members. One-to-one coupling of glacial variability in Greenland and Antarctica. Nature 444, (2006). 14. Stocker, T. F. & Johnsen, S. J. A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw. Paleoceanography 18, PA1087 (2003). 15. Ganopolski, A. & Rahmstorf, S. Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model. Nature 409, (2001). 16. Berger, A. Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the earth's orbital elements. Quaternary Research 9, (1978). 17. D. Lüthi et al. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650, ,000 years before present. Nature 453, (2008). 18. Petit, J. R. et al. Climate and atmosphere history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399, (1999). 19. Lisiecki, L.E. & Raymo, M.E. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ 18 O records. Paleoceanography 20, PA1003, (2005). 20. Vautravers, M. & Shackleton, N. J. Centennial scale surface hydrology off Portugal during Marine Isotope Stage 3: Insights from planktonic foraminiferal fauna variability. Paleoceanography 21, PA3004 (2006). nature geoscience 7

8 Supplementary Figure Legends Figure S1. Comparison of palaeoclimatic information for the last and penultimate glacials. Curves are represented for the orbitally-equivalent intervals kyr BP (black) and kyr BP (red), as determined through insolation alignment. (a) Variations in 21 June insolation for 65 N 16 ; (b) Variations in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from Antarctic ice cores 17 ; (c) Variations in the isotopic ratio of atmospheric oxygen from the Vostok ice core 18 ; (d) Variations in δ 18 O composition of benthic foraminifera in the LR04 stack 19. Figure S2. Location of sites MD (this study) and MD (ref. 1) in the Portuguese margin. Figure S3. MD : planktonic and benthic δ 18 O curves and selected groups of pollen taxa, plotted against depth. Mediterranean taxa: evergreen Quercus, Olea, Pistacia and Phillyrea. Eurosiberian taxa: deciduous trees and shrubs and Abies. Steppe taxa: Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae/ Amaranthaceae and Gramineae. Pioneers: Juniperus, Hippophae, Salix and Betula. Figure S4. Development of chronological framework for the MIS6 section of MD (a) Alignment of the MD benthic δ 18 O (red) and EDC δd (ref. 10) (black) records; (b) MD sediment accumulation rates (SAR). Figure S5. Last glacial: definition of stadial duration (indicated by arrows) and δd amplitude of Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) (delineated by horizontal bars on the maximum and preceding minimum δd values of the EDC record. (a) Variations in temperate tree pollen percentages in core MD (this study); (b) Variations in δ 18 O composition of planktonic 8 nature geoscience

9 foraminifera in MD (ref. 20); (c) Variations in δ 18 O composition of ice in the NGRIP ice core, Greenland 11,12 ; (d) Variations in δd composition of ice in the EDC core, Antarctica, plotted on the EDC3 timescale 10 (blue curve); the red curve represents a 3-point moving average of the EDC δd record, and is used for the definition of δd amplitude (see discussion in text). All other records are plotted on the GICC05 timescale of the NGRIP ice core 12. Figure S6. Penultimate glacial: definition of stadial duration and δd amplitude of Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) (delineated by horizontal bars on the maximum and preceding minimum δd values of the EDC record. (a) Variations in temperate tree pollen percentages in core MD (this study); (b) Variations in δ 18 O composition of planktonic foraminifera in MD (this study); (c) Variations in δd composition of ice in the EDC core, Antarctica 10. Records are plotted on the EDC3 timescale (see Fig. S4). Figure S7. Comparison of estimates of stadial duration using (1) the interval between the mid-point of the stadial transitions in the δ 18 O of ice in the NGRIP record 11, on the GICC05 chronology 12 (for MIS3), and the interval between the mid-point of stadial transitions in the δ 18 O planktonic record in MD (for MIS6); and (2) the interval from the Antarctic δd maximum to the preceding minimum of each AIM event in the EDC 10 ice core record. Deviations from the 1 : 1 line show differences between the two methods (points plotting to the right of the line indicate greater duration using method (1), and vice versa). Figure S8. Antarctic temperature response to AMOC perturbation plotted against the duration of the AMOC perturbation. Responses from the conceptual bipolar see-saw model 14 (dashed lines) are compared with results from the intermediate complexity CLIMBER2 model 15 (solid lines). For each type of model, Antarctic temperature responses are shown for more intense nature geoscience 9

10 stadials/amoc perturbations (red lines) and for less intense stadials/amoc perturbations (black lines). The see-saw model response is defined as in Figure 4 of the manuscript, using ΔT N = -2.2 o C (dashed black line) and -4.5 o C (dashed red line) in order to scale with the CLIMBER2 results for a 50% reduction in the MOC (solid black line) and for a complete shutdown of the AMOC (solid red line) respectively. The CLIMBER2 experiments were performed for glacial boundary conditions using a model and experiment set-up identical to that of ref. 15. The absolute temperature values in this plot are of no significance as compared to the shape, curvature and relative heights of the various curves. 10 nature geoscience

11 Age (kyr BP) June 21 Insolation 65 N (wm -2 ) a Vostok δ 18 O atm ( ) b c 450 CO 2 (ppmv) d 1.5 LR04 stack δ 18 O benthic ( ) Age (kyr BP) Fig. S1 nature geoscience 11

12 MD MD Fig. S2 12 nature geoscience

13 Depth m 22 Benthic δ 18 O Planktonic δ 18 O Eurosiberian Mediterranean Ericaceae Steppe Pioneer ( ) (%) Fig. S3 nature geoscience 13

14 MD SAR (cm kyr -1 ) EDC δd ( ) a b MD δ 18 O benthic ( ) EDC3 Age (kyr BP) Fig. S4 14 nature geoscience

15 MD Tree pollen(%) a b MD δ 18 O planktonic ( ) 3 H3 H4 H5 H5a H6 NGRIP δ 18 O ice ( ) -420 c d EDC δd ( ) AIM GICC05 Age (kyr BP) Fig. S5 nature geoscience 15

16 a MD δ 18 O planktonic ( ) 0 b MD Tree pollen(%) c 6vi 6v 6iv 6iii 6ii 6i AIM EDC3 Age (kyr BP) 3 EDC δd ( ) Fig. S6 16 nature geoscience

17 : 1 line AIM6iv Duration of Antarctic warming (yr) AIM6vi AIM8 AIM12 AIM14 AIM15 AIM6ii AIM6 AIM4 AIM10 AIM5 AIM11 AIM7 AIM4.1 AIM9 AIM6v AIM6iii AIM6i AIM North Atlantic stadial duration (yr) Fig. S7 nature geoscience 17

18 Antarctic event amplitude ( o C) See-saw model: T S = -4.5 (e -t/1120-1) See-saw model: T S = -2.2 (e -t/1120-1) CLIMBER2 Complete AMOC shutdown CLIMBER2 50% AMOC reduction North Atlantic stadial duration (yr) Fig. S8 18 nature geoscience

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