Commission on Statistics in Volcanology (COSIV)

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1 Commission on Statistics in Volcanology (COSIV) IAVCEI meeting, Kagoshima, 23 July 2013, 12:00-13:30, Room A2 Agenda 1. Structure/organization of commission (see attached draft) 2. Workshop(s) 3. The commission journal Statistics in Volcanology 4. Liason committees (see attached from Self/Delgado) 5. Web presence 6. Any other business.

2 1. COSIV Structure and Organization: Discussion Document 1.1 Mission Statement The IAVCEI Commission on Statistics in Volcanology (COSIV) was established in 2007 to foster statistical analysis of volcanological data. We promote the application of statistics to all aspects of analysis of volcanological data, but with particular regard to the forecasting of future volcanic activity and its potential effects. COSIV accomplishes this through workshops, special sessions at regularly scheduled meetings, and publications. 1.2 Current structure: At the moment there are three formal positions: Commission leader: Mark Bebbington SiV Editor: Chuck Connor Liaison Committee Representative: Laura Sandri In addition, Warner Marzocchi and Roberto Carniel have been consulting. 1.3 Proposed structure: I (and IAVCEI) would like to see a more formal structure, which I suggest needs to be tailored to the new requirements for commissions, notably that we organize a workshop or equivalent every 4 years (between IUGG meetings), and that we contribute members to the liaison committee(s). I would also like to hardwire some continuity into the organization by making the past leader a committee member automatically Terms and elections : Leader to run 4 years (IUGG meeting IUGG meeting). If it is possible (see attached guidelines I note or more frequently ) that we could elect a leader at the intervening IAVCEI meetings, and this leader-elect could then replace the past leader for the following two years: IUGG IAVCEI meetings Leader Past leader SiV Editor (Ex-officio) Workshop organizer Liasion representative IAVCEI-IUGG meetings Leader Leader-elect SiV Editor (Ex-officio) Workshop organizer Liasion representative So a leader would have an eight-year sentence, 2 years as leader-elect, 4 years as leader, and 2 years as past-leader. The workshop organizer and liaison member would be elected for 4 year terms at the IUGG meetings. Chuck can make his own succession arrangements.

3 2. Proposed Workshop These have to be organized a year in advance. If we are going to have one in this cycle, it needs to be in So far the only suggestion has come from Warner: Some time ago INGV and USGS founded a workshop on Best Practices for Volcano Observatories (VOBP). WOVO and COSIV were two supporters of this initiative. The main goal was on short-term eruption forecasting. From what I understood from Paolo Papale who led the initiative, this kind of workshop will be held again in the future, changing the topic (moving more towards hazard for example). I suggest keeping coordinated with this initiative; I can ask to someone if the VOBP meetings will continue in the next future. We might consider suggesting the involvement of COSIV, for instance helping with the organization of the meeting. This is just an idea. The general thrust of Warner s advice is that we should collaborate with one (or more?) other commissions to hold a workshop, which is very much in line with the application of statistics. As this is one of two (or three, the others being the journal and possibly the website) activities of COSIV, it needs its own committee member 3. Publications (Chuck ): Update on SiV, education and outreach 4. Liasion Committees (see attached). Statistics in Volcanology has been pigeonholed into the LC Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters. While this might represent the major thrust of the commission (or at least of its more prominent members), I think our aims are to be more extensive than that. We certainly can (have?) stick our oar in with Monogenetic Volcanism, Remote Sensing, Volcanic Sesimology and Tsunamis. Chemistry of Volcanic Gases and Arc Magmatism are also possibilities. Which kind of covers all the LCs? So, while we are a formal part of the Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters, our mission statement suggests that we need some sort of window into all the LCs. How do we go about it? 5. Web presence Ideally we need someone (ex-officio committee member?) to integrate COSIV into VHub. Volunteers?

4 Commission Guidelines The Executive Committee expects that commissions will adhere to the following guidelines, as appropriate: Each commission should have an active leader or chair (point of contact) and board of officers (for instance, ex-officio chair, vice-chair, secretary). Leader and board of officers should be elected every 4 years (or more frequently if desired), within commission. Report activities to IAVCEI Vice-Presidents every year (briefly) with a full report to be delivered to the Executive Committee every 4 years. If a commission receives IAVCEI funding for an activity then a report to the EC must be made one month after the end of the activity. The election of new office bearers for all commissions and presentation of final reports by the outgoing executives of all commissions should take place at a business meeting for each commission during IUGG General Assemblies. Leader and board of officers should promote advances in volcanology by coordinating working groups to study specific topics, or by some other mechanism. Leader and board of officers should promote the participation of young scientists in the activities of the commission and as board officers. Leader and board of officers should promote collaboration with other commissions. Organize a workshop or meeting (or equivalent activity) at least once every 4 years. Organize (or co-organize) symposia and workshops that contribute to IAVCEI/IUGG General and Scientific Assemblies. Keep a website that clearly acknowledges IAVCEI affiliation, and that includes an updated (at least once a year) register of members. Website shall be hosted, or have a webpage and link, on the IAVCEI V-Hub site. Use the above register of commission members to communicate with them at least once per year via an e-newsletter about commission activities and forthcoming commission workshops and programs at IAVCEI conferences. Ensure that commission members are IAVCEI members. Liaison Committee roles and guidelines: Each liaison committee represents a group of commissions with overlapping interests. The role of liaison committees is to facilitate communication between related commissions about each other s activities and, where relevant, encourage and coordinate joint activities. Each commission within a liaison committee should provide a member to serve on the LC on a rotational basis. Desirably, the ex-officio commission chair or leader could be a candidate for the LC.

5 Members decided by the boards of each commission would form the liaison committee. For example: Chemistry of the Earth; one person from each from Commission on Volcanic Gases, Volcanic Lakes, and Arc Magmatism, would initially constitute the liaison committee. They can be replaced each year at the discretion of the commission board or remain for the term of four years. Liaison committees will promote interactions and collaboration between commissions within its group. Liaison committees can promote new commissions and/or working groups, and explore strengths and weaknesses within the group. Proposed liaison committees Suggested Liaison Committees Commission/Working Group Associations Volcanic Provinces and Processes Mitigation of Volcanic Disaters Chemistry of the Earth Volcano Geophysics and Remote Sensing Volcano-Ice Interactions Collapse Calderas Monogenetic Volcanism Large Igneous Provinces Volcanogenic Sediments* Statistics in Volcanology Cities and Volcanoes World Volcano Observatories International Volcanic Health Hazard Network Tephra Hazard Modelling Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere* Chemistry of Volcanic Gases Volcanic Lakes Arc Magmatism (State of the Arc)* Remote Sensing Volcano Seismology IAVCEI/IACS Geoparks, Geoheritage and Geotourism (outside IUGG) IAVCEI/IAMAS Global Volcano Model (outside IUGG) IAVCEI/IASPEI Volcano Acoustics* IAVCEI/IAPSO/IASPEI Tsunamis; IUGG Inter-Assocn Commission* IAVCEI/IAPSO/IASPEI Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials IAGA/IASPEI/IAVCEI Electromagnetic Studies of Earthquakes and IAVCEI/IAGA/IASPEI Volcanoes * these commissions need some revival but have proponents to do this

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