Apéndice 1: Figuras y Tablas del Marco Teórico

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1 Apéndice 1: Figuras y Tablas del Marco Teórico FIGURA A.1.1 Manufacture poles and manufacture regions Poles: Share of employment in manufacture at least 12% and population of 250,000 or more. Regions: all the municipalities closest to each pole FIGURA A.1.2 Services poles and services regions Poles: highest.33 percentile in share of employment in services over total employment and population of 250,000 or more Regions: all the municipalities closest to each pole 35

2 FIGURA A.1.3 FIGURA A

3 FIGURAS A.1.5 Y A

4 FIGURAS A.1.7 Y A

5 TABLA A.1.1 Estimation of locality change in employment, Mexico Regional growth Regional fixed effects Role of growth pole Ln(distance to closest pole) Growth of pole * distance to pole Transmission % of population served by state road % of population served by federal Mean minut.to closest semi urban Locality's absorption capacity Change P- Manufacture Change P- Growth P- Growth P- Change P- Change P- Services Growth P- Growth P *** * ** ** * -3.5*** ** *** 0.74** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** ** ** *** *** *** *** ** ** *** *** 0.01 Area in km *** 0.05*** East coast -195*** ** * * West coast 147*** ** *** *** ** ** ** ** 0.04 Northern border * * 0.08 Southern border Mean altitude in meters St.dev. of altitude in meters % illiterate among 15 or older Endogenous locality growth Total employed population % employed in sector 0.13*** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** * *** 0.46*** * * * * *** *** *** *** *** 0.001*** 4.4*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 0.00 Constant *** * *** *** *** 0.00 Observations R-squared * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% 39

6 TABLA A.1.2 Classes of determinants of local growth: decomposition of variance Effects Variables Region s and pole s growth Transmission to locality Locality s absorption capacity Locality s endogenous growth Regional fixed effects Distance to closest manufacture or services growth pole Growth of pole* distance to pole % of population served by a state road % of the population served by a federal road Area in km2 Area in km 2 East coast West coast Northern border Southern border Mean altitude Standard deviation of altitude % illiterate Minutes to closest semi-urban town % of employment in manufacturing or services Total employed population in 1990 Region s and Transmission to Locality s Locality s Effects pole s growth locality absorption endogenous capacity growth Growth in manufacturing employment Growth in services employment 40

7 TABLA A.1.3 Determinants of participation in off-farm activities, Mexican ejido households Multinomial estimation, with no off-farm work as the comparison choice. Agric. Construction Other non-ag. wage wage labor worker labor Self-employment US seasonal migrant Mean Relative Relative Relative Relative Relative Value 1 Risk 2 P- Risk P- risk P- risk P- risk P- Individual characteristics Head of household (reference group) 29 Spouse of head of household Male younger than 35 years old Female younger than 35 years old Male 35 years old or older Female 35 years old or older Education of less than 3 years (reference level) 31 Education 3 years and < 6 years Education 6 years and < 9 years Education of 9 years or more Assets and characteristics of the household Land assets per adult (ha of RFE) Community land per member (100 ha) Access to technical assistance Access to formal credit US migration assets (number of persons) Mexico migration assets (number of persons) Age of household head (years) Indigenous Locational characteristics Access to urban centers Number of urban centers within 1 hour " " x female Number of rural centers within 1 hour Regions North (reference region) North Pacific Center Gulf South Number of observations in the category Pseudo R Robust standard error adjusted for clustering by ejidos. 1Percentages unless otherwise indicated. 2Relative risk is the exponential of the coefficient. It gives the ratio of the relative probability of the choice for a one unit increase in the exogenous variable: [Pr(choice I x+1) / (Pr(base choice x+1)] / [Pr(choice I x) / (Pr(base choice x)]. P-s are the tests of the underlying coefficients being equal to 0, i.e., of the relative risk being equal to 1. 41

8 TABLA A.1.4 Determinants of welfare and poverty in marginal rural areas of Mexico Progresa communities. Mean of variable Marginal annual Poverty Status monthly df/dx P> z (pesos) Assets Natural capital Irrigated land (ha) Rainfed land (ha) Human capital (number of household members) Male, education level Male, education level Male, education level Male, education level Female, education level Female, education level Female, education level Female, education level Social capital Indigenous head (0/1) Indigenous spouse (0/1) Income transfers (100 pesos) Household characteristics Gender of head (male = 1) Age of head (years) Children 14 years old and less Young over 15 years, in school Context Village characteristics Male wage (1000 pesos/month) Female wage (1000 pesos/month) Federal or state road (0/1) Car ownership (per household) Municipal characteristics Welfare inequality (std/mean) Employment structure (shares) Agricultural worker 0.64 Non-ag. worker Business owner Ejidatario Self-employed and other Status indicators Guerrero Hidalgo Michoacan Puebla Queretaro San Luis Potosi

9 Veracruz Goodness-of-fit Pseudo R Number of observations

10 TABLA A.1.5 Correlation coefficients in sample mean incomes across 102 counties Farm Nonfarm Nonfarm Collective Income income I income II income Farm income Nonfarm income I Nonfarm income II Collective income FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) TABLA A.1.6 Consumption growth regressed on county-mean incomes and own incomes Consumption growth GMM estimates Coefficient t-ratio Constant * Coefficients on lagged consumption * * County mean household incomes by source, 1985 Farm income * Nonfarm income I 6.77E Nonfarm income II 6.10E Collective income Household s own income by source, 1985 Farm income -5.07E-05* Nonfarm income I -7.25E-05* Nonfarm income II -7.47E-05* Collective income -2.25E Note:* indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=5,641 (111 counties). FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) 44

11 TABLA A.1.7 Decomposition of growth by income source Income change , normalised by initial consumption Farm income Coefficient t- ratio Nonfarm income I Coefficient t- ratio Nonfarm income II Coefficient t- ratio Collective income Coefficient t- ratio Constant * County mean household incomes by source, 1985 Farm income * E-05* E E Nonfarm income E-05* E-05* E-05* Nonfarm income E * E Collective income E E Household s own income by source, 1985 Farm income * E E E Nonfarm income E-05* E E-05* Nonfarm income E E E Collective income * E E * J statistic Notes: * indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=5,641 (111 counties) 45

12 TABLA A.1.8 Consumption growth model using geographic data from county administrative records Coefficient t-statistic Constant * Coefficients on lagged consumption * * * Economic activity at county level (a) Farm Cultivated area per 10,000 persons * Fertilizer used per cultivated area * Farm machinery used per cultivated area * (b) Nonfarm Number of commercial enterprises in county per 10, * population Rural industry gross product per 10,000: township enterprises -6.63E Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: village * enterprises Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: household -1.77E enterprises Rural construction gross product per 10,000 persons Rural transportation gross product per 10,000 persons * Rural gross product from services per 10,000 persons Other geographic controls Guangdong (dummy) * Guangxi (dummy) * Yunnan (dummy) Revolutionary base area (dummy) * Border area (dummy) Coastal area (dummy) Minority area (dummy) * Mountainous area (dummy) * Plains (dummy) Population density (log) Proportion of illiterates in 15+population Infant mortality rate Medical personnel per capita Kilometers of roads per capita * Proportion of population living in urban areas * Household variables Expenditure on agricultural inputs per cultivated area * Fixed productive assets per capita -1.27E Cultivated land per capita Household size (log) *

13 Age of household head Age2of household head * E-05* Proportion of adults in the household who are illiterate Proportion of adults with primary school education 7.77E Proportion of children 6-11 years Proportion of children years * Proportion of children years Proportion of children with primary school education Proportion of children with secondary school education Whether a household member works in the state sector (dummy) Proportion of 60+members in the household Notes: * indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=4,778 (96 counties). FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) 47

14 TABLA A.1.9 Descomposition by income source Income change , normalised by initial Farm income Nonfarm income I Nonfarm income II Collective income consumption Coefficient t-ratio Coefficient t- ratio Coefficient t- ratio Coefficient t- ratio Constant Economic activity at county level (a) Farm Cultivated area per 10,000 persons * E Fertilizer used per cultivated area (x100) * * * Farm machinery used per cultivated area (x100) * * (b) Nonfarm Number of commercial enterprises per 10, E E * E population Rural industry gross product per 10,000: township 1.53E E-05* E E-05* enterprises Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: E * E village enterprises Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: * * E E enterprises owned by households Rural construction gross product per 10, E E E E persons Rural transportation gross product per 10, * E persons Rural gross product from services per 10, * E E persons Other geographic controls Guangdong (dummy) * * Guangxi (dummy) Yunnan (dummy) * Revolutionary base area (dummy) * * Border area (dummy) * E Coastal area (dummy) * Minority area (dummy) (x100) * Mountainous area (dummy) *

15 Plains (dummy) * Population density (log) * Prop of illiterates in 15+population (x100) * Infant mortality rate -3.89E * E Medical personnel per capita (x100) * Kilometers of roads per capita (x100) * Proportion of population living in urban areas * Household-level variables Expenditure on agricultural inputs per cultivated * E Area (x100) Fixed productive assets per capita (x100) E * Cultivate land per capita * Household size (log) * * Age of household head Age2of household head (x100) E E Prop of adults in household who are illiterate Prop of adults in household with primary school education Prop of children in the household ages 6-11 years Prop of children in household ages years Prop of children in household ages years Prop of children with prim school education (x100) Prop of children with secondary school education Household member works in state sector (dummy) * Proportion of 60+members in the household Notes: * indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=4,778 (96 counties). FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) 49

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