How to make the European landscape climate-change proof for biodiversity? Prof. Paul Opdam

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1 How to make the European landscape climate-change proof for biodiversity? Prof. Paul Opdam

2 Notions Habitat fragmentation and land use prevent species to respond to climate change Adaptation of the landscape by improving cohesion based on the Natura 2000 network is the strategic answer Regional landscape planning is the arena

3 Key concepts Landscape=physical template for biodiversity. Spatial cohesion: an ecologically scaled landscape measure related to the persistence of metapopulations Ecological network: a functionally coherent pattern of ecosystems or nature areas, at a defined spatial scale

4 Five research topics

5 1. If temperature zones shift Can species distributions follow?

6 Species ranges across Europe will expand to the north and contract in the south Current distribution

7 But habitat patterns may block expansion 500 km Potential distribution after climate change No access Contraction

8 1. Region-Specific effects on (protected and unprotected) species (which, where)? How and where does interaction between climate change and the cohesion of habitat patterns lead to deviations from European nature policy targets? Which are critical levels of spatial cohesion in ecological networks? Where are the weak parts? If specialists are more affected than generalists, which effects on ecosystem resilience and services?

9 2. Weather extremes: what are the risks of increased regional dynamics? Extreme rains in 1998 Evaporation deficit (mm) January-Augustus mm in 24 uur 100mm in 48 uur

10 Weather extremes have stronger impacts in more fragmented regions Acrocephalus schoenobaenus Sedge warbler

11 Sedge warbler crash during Sahel drought less severe in stronger habitat networks % decrease in abundance in local populations % local populations lost strong inter-mediate weak Network cohesion Foppen et al. 1999

12 Predicted sedge warbler recovery time: shorter in more cohesive networks Years until recovery strong intermediate Network cohesion weak Foppen et al. 1999

13 Predicted range dynamics Population density, habitat occupation Extremes cause gaps in regions with fragmented landscape Temperature change causes contractions range Geographical latitude

14 2. Quantifying effects of weather extremes in habitat networks How do habitat fragmentation and weather extremes change structure of distribution range? Critical levels of spatial cohesion in case of weather extremes? Role of large heterogeneous areas in lowering risks of regional extinction?

15 3. Will the Natura 2000 network be climate proof?

16 The Natura 2000 network: Countries at work Legend = Regional network = Under development = Designed, official government policy = Designed, NGO initiative Based on Jongman, R.H.G. & I. Kristiansen, 2001, Sepp & Kaasik, 2003

17 Dutch National Ecological Network: the only network in Europe in which article 10 of the Habitat directive is already being implemented: (being developed as a functionally coherent network) (ready 2018).

18 Example by LARCH model (Alterra): Spatial cohesion for Red copper in Middle Europe Van Swaay in: Sluis et al, 2004

19 3. Assessing natura 2000 network Need a spatially explicit assessment instrument for the European scale, based on ecologically scaled landscape (GIS)-metrics (instead of standard geographic metrics), Using risk groups (ecoprofiles) rather than species.

20 4. Adaptation strategies based on 4 components of spatial cohesion Patch quality Network density Network area Matrix permeability Opdam, Verboom & Pouwels 2003

21 3. Development, design and testing of solutions. Change spatial structure of N network Improve surrounding landscape Management of existing nature Network quality - Diminish flow of nutrients - Lower recreation pressure - Increase heterogeneity of vegetation of critical ecosystems Total network area -Extend large areas and merge smaller areas to get one large - Develop robust corridors - Create new habitat patches Change distribution of ecosystem types in favor of most critical ones Network density Increase stepping stones Develop habitat patches Matrix permeability Increase density of corridors Improve matrix permeability

22 5. Implementation into regional development A common vision on where the cohesion of the European landscape has to be improved (article 10) Develop and test planning and design methods, rules and tools suitable for stakeholder involvement in decision making Search for opportunities of synergy with other EU- and national policy and measures to adapt the landscape to climate change (water management, agriculture, valuable landscapes)

23 Promote ecological networks as spatial concept in spatial adaptation Let the landscape matrix be part of the solution The solution is in the hands of regional actors Messages

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